FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: November 15, 2025
Now that the World Series is over and we’re two weeks into the offseason, the stockpile of questions for our mailbag is getting a little light. For that reason, I’m putting out a request for fresh submissions. I’m sure that if you’re reading this, you have at least some kernel of a question or curiosity noodling around in your noggin, and we are eager to answer it. As you’ll see from the assortment of topics in this week’s column — ranging from the career earnings potentially lost due to gambling allegations all the way to a hypothetical seven-game series between fantasy and sci-fi characters — we are game for almost anything. To ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, please send us an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
That said, there are a few questions that we have absolutely no way of answering, even though they are fun and interesting. I’ll include one at the start of this week’s edition and respond to it briefly before we get to the meat of the mailbag.
But first, a quick programming note: I will be on vacation next week, so Meg will be steering the mailbag in my absence. If you have any thoughts about the Seattle Seahawks or the 1997 Robert Zemeckis film Contact, I’m sure she’d love to hear from you as she combs through the emails next week. And, as always, I’d like to remind you all that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. OK, let’s get to it.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Dickey Pearce was a pioneer. I’d call Joe Start one too
The Red Sox believe that they need an upgrade over Duran
Nick Young surrounded by question marks.jpg
I have no evidence to refute that statement, but that cannot be what they actually believe. They must think they need to upgrade first base and pitching and that is more important than retaining Duran.
It would be incredibly weird to think that they need an “upgrade” on Duran. There were only 13 outfielders with more fWAR than Duran last year and five of the top six are among the Top 15 most valuable contracts in MLB baseball (Carroll, Judge, Julio Rodriguez, PCA, Tatis). One more is also on the Top 50 most valuable contracts list (Langford), two more within the Top 8 have a full no-trade clause that they are not waiving (Soto, Buxton), and another one is under contract to a division rival that just lost a wrenching Game 7 in the World Series.
There are two free agents in that group. But while it would seem a little Red Sox-like to trade Jarren Duran, sign Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger, and then run out Vaughn Grissom as their second baseman I think that would be pretty absurd even for them.
No chance Boston signs Tucker.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Pirates fan, and if they want to trade Duran for a starter with front-line talent who is recovering from an injury I’m wiping a tear from my eye and offering them Jared Jones plus. Or something (maybe Jones is a bit too injured at the moment). But getting rid of Duran so you can play Kristian Campbell in the outfield doesn’t seem like it should be a priority.
If I’m the Pirates (please don’t call me Bob Nutting) I’m keeping the pitching they have and addressing offence through free agency. Their payroll is an embarrassment.
Yeah, hard to figure how one “upgrades” on a guy who stands 11th on Davy Andrews’ Egalitarian WAR Leaderboard.
I could see Duran getting moved in a three team trade. Perhaps Ryan to the Red Sox, Duran to a contender and the Twins get prospects.
Still not sure how the Royals aren’t a/the frontrunner for Duran, outfield just seems like it is clearly their big need, and he’s got years of relatively cheap control left.
I saw a deal proposing Noah Cameron for Duran a month or two ago. It’s a promising idea if the Red Sox think they can get Cameron to miss more bats. It’s hard to be a small-market team and deal away cheap starters, but it’s the only real player who would get their attention who they would maybe be willing to move. (And if the Red Sox don’t think they can get more K’s out of Cameron then the Royals would have to add more…)
There are several players, including Duran, who would make a lot of sense for the the Royals, Padres, or Astros. But those three teams have probably the three worst farm systems in MLB.
That was the obvious trade that immediately came to my mind as a royals fan. I am pretty sure they would need to give up more though. Blake Mitchell is obvious trade bait but other than that I’m not sure how interesting anyone else is. Cameron+Mitchell seems like an overpay to me but I think it could work with some additional lower level prospects thrown in. I’m.pretty low on Mitchell so don’t think I would really care too much if that would push it over the top. They need an outfield upgrade so bad and seem to have a lot of success churning out back end starters to replace Cameron
I would never trade a 26 year old Noah Cameron for a 29 year old Duran. Cameron has always been a strikeout pitcher so there are reasons to believe he will be in MLB. Duran is decent for sure but no more upside while Cameron has much more upside.
There was some crazy rumor that the Twins didn’t deal Joe Ryan to the Red Sox at the deadline because they were holding out for Duran. If they’re still interested, the Red Sox should absolutely make that deal. But it’s a little hard for me to see what the Twins get out of that since they’re only getting one more year of team control. And as good as Duran is, he does have a prominent platoon split and it’s hard enough to find playoff-caliber pitchers.
It really only makes sense in your proposal, where someone gets Duran and sends prospects to the Twins. Like maybe the Pirates or Mets or Phillies.
If I’m Minnesota I’m holding onto Joey Ryan and Pablo Lopez and trading Woods Richardson instead. David Festa can replace Woods Richardson. Of course the Pohlad family has no desire to win. Worth over 4 Billion but won’t put any money into the team.
Yeah, Gandalf would be Ohtani-like in the mythical LOTR vs ST:NG game.
We hear about pitchers making “the ball disappear”, he could literally do that or put crazy curves on the ball that no human could accomplish..or make it go 120 MPH or have it turn into a stone or mush halfway to the plate, so even if it was hit, it would go nowhere. I would expect him to throw a no-hitter with 27K’s..& then put him at DH & he would again use his magical powers to just hit HR’s.
Final score 4-0 with Gandalf going 4-4 with 4 HR’s & pitching a complete game shutout with 27K’s on 81 pitches.
I think the issue with Gandalf would be one of availability. He often leaves the group for various other quests for extended periods of time. Games where he’s not there would favor opponents pretty handily, but he’d make up for it by dominating when he’s in the lineup.
Sorry but no person who saw what he could do with homemade fireworks would step in the box against him. It’d be like if that Winnie the Pooh baseball browser game existed in real life.
The pinch hitter will be Gandalf the White, and he comes up now with 2 down bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.
Yeah, he comes up at the turn of the tide.
We need a ruling on whether Gandalf’s staff can serve as a regulation bat.
George Brett running out of the dugout screeching “I TOLD YOU TO TAKE THE WIZARD’S STAFF”
I think he’d have them play small ball.
I hate to be the guy who predicts everyone going to the Dodgers, but Kershaw is retiring and LA has done nothing but put its foot in its mouth around the issue in recent years. Duran is a Dodger
I don’t really understand why the Red Sox are in such a hurry to move on from their best position player but Duran for Sheehan would be fair and fit the Red Sox’s needs.
And Sheehan probably already knows how to use the Green Line, so that’s convenient.
But based on past history the Dodgers will instead hypnotize another team into accepting four random guys who need 40-man protection for Brendan Donovan or Steven Kwan.
That outcome would be so Chaim Bloom, it almost has to happen.
“I don’t really understand why the Red Sox are in such a hurry to move on from their best position player”
It would certainly be the first time they have done something like this! /s
Gandalf is a “wizard” but his “magic” is mostly divine-level skill in seeing what the next six-to-sixty months are going to look like, manipulation of the natural environment (including weather, but especially fire and light), and wards that are useful against other creatures with magic-like powers. The first one is useful for assembling the team, but he already did that, it wouldn’t be useful at predicting what kind of pitch is coming. The second one is clearly against the rules of baseball, and the third one is useless against Star Trek characters.
As a divine figure he has amazing hand-eye coordination, as do the other members of his team, and hobbits have a pretty small strike zone, but we’re probably talking about four members of the team not being fast enough to play MLB defense and having 20 grade power. Imagine a team that consists of a guy who pitches like Sandy Koufax and hits like Ted Williams, and then also Willie Mays, Mike Schmidt, Cal Raleigh crammed into the body of Alejandro Kirk, and Cal Ripken Jr from 1991…and also the four best 10 year olds in your local area.
The Star Trek team would be more like a regular MLB team. I think I’m probably taking the fellowship team over this because as long as my wizard is pitching at Koufax-level it doesn’t matter that I’m giving away half of my batting order to offensive zeroes and that my defense will be five gold glovers and four hobbits. But even Sandy Koufax had off days and I literally have no bullpen, so this could go wrong very quickly.
I was going to suggest that hobbits’ skill with slings might make them surprisingly capable at filling in on the mound, but I think that might come from RPGs rather than Tolkien proper.
No, the very beginning of LOTR describes hobbits as having uncanny precision and deadly accurate throwing arms. The relief corp of Hobbit pitching would absolutely decimate opposing line-ups. Your assumption/suggestion does, in fact, come from Tolkien proper.
The hobbit-size release angle + spin axis would wreak havoc at the top of the zone.
Yeah but their velocity would not be good. Maybe they could make it work like Tyler Rogers, that would be the best case scenario. Unfortunately someone like Brian Sweeney is more realistic.
Also at least three of them need to play other positions because you only have nine to pick from.
They’d probably have good pop time for a catcher, and that’s a case where accuracy and reaction matters more than pure velo. Unfortunately, you can only put one of them at catcher and then you’d have to take your dwarf off of catcher and stick him somewhere else. Which isn’t the end of the world but dwarves would be a terribly small target at first base and wouldn’t cover much if any ground at any other position. And it seems like dwarves would hold up to the battering catchers take much better than hobbits.
They’d also do great throwing from different angles in the infield but their range would be very bad.
You’re thinking about hobbits in the aggregate. These are specific hobbits with a certain skill set. They’re not throwing Lotho Sackville-Baggins out there on Day One.
Merry has good field senses and durability, as shown by surviving stabbing the Witch King of Angmar and seeing to the ordering of companies at the Battle of Bywater, so he’s your starting catcher. Pippen has a stronger arm than one might give credit for, so I’m slotting him in at second base. He’s also quick on his feet, as demonstrated by his evading the Uruk-Hai long enough to drop the brooch. Sam is about as dependable as one might hope, with a strong grounded sense and dependable skills. I could put him at catcher, but I think he’s fine for first base.
Frodo can go to left field. That’s fine.
Legolas in center field and Boromir in right makes sense to me. Aragorn is your shortstop because of his natural range(r). Gimli is at third somewhat by default, but with the eyes of a hawk and the ears of a fox, plus the natural sturdiness of the dwarves as endowed by Aule, he’s as reliable as they come.
Gandalf pitching was cited somewhere above. That makes sense to, as he’s a natural fire-baller, plus he’s a god damn Maia.
Gimli would be an elite leadoff guy. Dwarves, after all, are natural sprinters
Very dangerous over short distances, I hear.
Legolas I bet would be an insane closer too
I figured he would be in center field, but I suppose if needed they could swap spots
He would be the GOAT of HR robberies. In fact he might be able to prevent ALL HR.
He’s like a blond Tim Lincecum
Sauron the slugger goes unmentioned?
On the other hand, Q would make an excellent closer for the Star Trek Team.
I don’t believe Jarren Duran’s f-slur moment is going to affect his market in any way. It wasn’t a good moment for him, but he learned from it, folks have moved on. It’s a lot different from players who have expressed their homophobia as a held belief.
It’s also a bigger problem for players that don’t put up four wins.
I can’t find it right now, but I recall some talk over the summer when it was being suggested that Boston needed to upgrade over Conner Wong as a backup to Narvaez, but they held off & stuck with Wong because the pitching staff loves pitching to him. I recall hearing about this just before it was reported Wong had taught Chapman about locating pitches for the first time in his career.
Best Mailbag collection of questions and answers so far; kudos to all involved. I’d be a member anyway, but having access to this on top of everything else is a fantastic bonus.
I looked up the Deep Space Nine episode where Worf plays first. The punchline is that the inept Rom delivers a Homer Simpson-esque accidental bunt to drive in the Niners’ only run. But Rom’s actor was a high-school baseball player who could only look convincingly bad at baseball by batting left-handed. Shades of Inigo Montoya, and of Tim Blake Nelson (a classics major at Brown) being the only person on the set of O Brother, Where Art Thou? who’d read the Odyssey.
The Enterprise D team does, in fact, have a wizard, and much like Tolkien lore, it’s the smallest among them who is the unlikely hero. How soon we forget that Wesley Crusher basically ascended into godhood. To Summarize
“Wesley Crusher’s Traveler powers include the ability to travel through time, stop time, move through different space-time dimensions, see and monitor the timeline and the fabric of reality, and make changes to space-time when needed.”
Yeah, I’ll take the guy who can literally stop time against any Wizard-pitcher.
Yeah, Gandalf would find ways to win. But don’t underestimate the difficulty of hitting a hobbit’s strike zone. And pound for pound, they are pretty strong; might be enough bat speed there to get a lot of walks, with leg speed to turn a double into a single. And Gandalf, managing the team, would stack his 3 or 4 hobbits back to back at the bottom of the order. Walk the bases loaded? Oh yeah, and then let Thorin Oakenshield catch up to a fast meatball! Or Gimli, batting after Oakey, rip a rocket into the gap scoring TWO short legged hobbits and ending up on second himself. And what if Gandalf pitched? The ump would only call strikes and the hitter would see three baseballs. Correct choice, Matt!
It’s not The Fellowship of the Ring versus the crew of the USS Enterprise, but it’s in the ballpark: The Tatooine Podracers versus the Starfleet Alphas at The Hardball Times back in 2016.
Bhagwan is coming
The episode of TNG you’re referring to is not titled “Redemption, Part I” but rather just “Redemption”
Wesley also has baseball experience (cf. “Justice” and “Evolution”); I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t just get the bat knocked out of his hands.
What about Bill James as a pioneer in the spirit of Chadwick?
It is beyond me that no one can see that Tommy John’s case has always been that he was, in a very specific and crucial way, a “pioneer,” and that he absolutely belongs in the Hall. (So, obviously, does Frank Jobe.)
As a former FanGraphs writer currently querying a novel about an 18-year-old baseball player traveling with the wizard Ganondolf through “Middle Hyrule,” I greatly appreciate Baumann’s lengthy exposition to an odd question with a simple answer.
If tasked to list deserving Hall inductees in the “pioneer” category, I would start with Bill James. He is, to me, clearly worthy.
“we never saw it as getting away with something we shouldn’t have”
An extremely harsh description of the situation is you were conspiring to deceive an official to gain an advantage.
I know pitch framing isn’t a crime, but for all the calls for ABS because umpires miss calls, I’ll be just as happy for it to end these shenanigans.