FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 3, 2026
Today marks the start of the Division Series, and we can only hope that these four matchups are more exciting than three of the four first-round series. Excluding the Braves-Phillies series — which went the full three games, two of which featured late lead changes — the closest scoring margin in a Wild Card Series game was three runs, and there were more games decided by at least seven runs (three) than by three (two).
That’s not to say that these other series were snoozers. I covered the Yankees-Red Sox series, and the atmosphere in the Bronx made for an electric experience regardless of the final scores, while the energy pulsing through Petco Park for the Padres-Cubs games was palpable on the broadcast. That wasn’t the case in Houston, where the Astros fell behind early in both games and got booed for their poor play. But those two games were at least a bit closer, and it was still enjoyable enough to watch the White Sox win after three consecutive 100-loss seasons. The real issue was that the result of those three series never really felt in doubt after the winning teams jumped out to early leads. Here’s to more back-and-forth affairs and outcomes that hang in the balance.
In this week’s mailbag, we’re answering your questions about the ideal playoff format, whether the White Sox are benefiting from divine intervention, whether it’s better to have elite hitting and below-average pitching or vice versa in the postseason, and the highest single-season WAR for a player who finished in the negative. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Love that list of negative WAR guys- Scott Kingery, Adam LaRoche, Andujar Cedeno.
As a Tiger fan I remember Darnell Coles- Had a really good rookie year, then collapsed both offensively & defensively the next yr & got so frustrated, he chucked a ball out of Tiger stadium after making an error & well, that was then end of his time in Detroit. He did hang around & then became a hitting coach for a while.
Alfredo Griffin is 32nd ALL TIME in games played at SS- Weird profile- Great range at SS but error prone. Crazy aggressive baserunner who’s aggressiveness likely cost him value, but, was fun to watch. no power, never walked, really an offensive zero or close to it. I think teams kept thinking he was going to “figure it out” on offense & walk more, but, it just never happened.
To be picking nits: our man Darnell Coles had already exhausted his rookie eligibility – he’d had 300-ish PAs and already racked -1.4 fWAR over three seasons – by the time Seattle traded him to the Tigers for an equally immortal first round bust, Rich Monteleone.
Ha! I had forgotten he wasn’t actually a rookie, but, had flailed around Seattle for 3 years & had that 1 decent year in Detroit as kind of a post-hype guy. Combined SEA/DET wasted 5 years hoping he could play 3B, when he was really a LF or DH type..who just didn’t hit enough for those spots.
Also, did not realize he lasted another 10 years & had 2nd stints in both Seattle & Detroit.
As for Rich Monteleone- The less said, the better. I guess Detroit “won” that trade due to Coles one decent season, but, more of a nothingburger trade.
Andy LaRoche! The little brother. At Bucs Dugout he was known as Luigi (in our more polite moments–as the centerpiece of the Jason Bay trade, he was very disappointing).
I remember seeing Andy during the Arizona Fall League in 2005 and he was not impressive. Matt Kemp, on the other hand, was.
Yeah, Adam was easily positive. I mean, he had 255 career homeruns. There’s maybe another question–most homeruns by a negative WAR player.
I loved when Quinton McCracken came up to bat in the Triple Play games. Mainly because I love hearing people say his name. What a great name.
Ooof.
Ooof as in I’m young or ooof as in I’m old?
No one ooofs at someone making them feel young.
Oh wow. I’m six months older than you. I thought I was the youngest around these parts.
Jon Becker is the youngest around these parts
Oof isn’t about you. It’s Oof as in, MikeS is old!
I too ‘oof’d’ but then thought, how sad Matt didn’t get to see prime Ken Griffey as a young baseball fan. That makes all the back pain worth it some days.
the thumbnail made me wheeze like a dying animal
I have trauma from the 2014-5 Wild Card games, but I think there’s something to be said for the current format. The third division winner may not get an advantage over the first wild card, but they often haven’t done as well as the first wild card. In the five years of three wild cards, only once has the AL third seed even had a tied record with the fourth seed (2022, when the Guardians and Blue Jays were both 92-70), and this is the second year where the first wild card was a dozen games ahead of the worst division leader (2023, Rays won 99 and Twins won 87). In the NL, the division leaders have been the top three teams 3/5 years plus a tie in 24, but never more than 3 games ahead.
The big issue is that all the AL’s powerhouse teams are in the East, but just as you can say “If you want to stay out of the wild card game, win the division,” you can say “If you want to stay out of the wild card series, catch the 2 seed.” This at least sometimes gives teams a reason to run through the tape after clinching the division.
(Aside: Looking at the trade value and farm system rankings, I’m not sure the AL West is going to get much better anytime soon. The Mariners better win some divisions.)
As great as the Cueto game was in 2013 the agony of losing to legendary runs from MadBum and Arrieta teh next two years have me firmly in the 1 game playoff sucks camp. 98 wins and gone in 9 innings in 2015, ugh.
Yeah I think the current format is really good. It balances making the regular season matter against also allowing a good number of teams to be in the race for a bunch of the season, which helps keep more fans engaged. And the first round bye for the top 2 seeds is a huge incentive to try and be really good rather than just mediocre.
Whether or not this has adverse impacts on either the offseason excitement or trade deadline, I don’t really care. The games are the reason we watch baseball!
My personal favorite was the 2 wild card format with a one game winner take all. I wasn’t 12 either during that time, lol. There were also the game 163s that made it even more exciting. It was two days of super high stakes baseball. It also better honors 162 game seasons teams played to win their division. To me, that should be rewarded.
Losing a quick 3 game series is just a less exciting way to experience a quick playoff trip. Used to be heartbreaking, now losing round one is meh, that happened.
Current format is just weird to me. A division winner is forced to play in the Wild Card round. Usually being the #2 seed is better than being the #1 seed, just look AL this year. Rays get rewarded with playing the only other team that won 90+ games. If anything, let’s re-seed the teams after the Wild Card series.
Any day with an Angel Berroa sighting is… a weird day. I remember when he was an exciting A’s farmhand!
I thought I was the only person on the planet who loved the one-game wildcard. The Bumgarner-Syndegard 2016 pitcher’s duel was one of the best games I’ve ever watched live, I know that people look down on the bo1 format because of randomness but I think it treads the line between making the regular season matter and still giving underperformers a chance. At least, better than the current format.
I like the idea of spotting the higher seed a win. If you finish higher, you only need 1 win, if you are the lower seed, you need 2.
IMO it further stratifies the end of year rankings which makes all the games more important.
Id maybe even do it for the number 1 overall seed in the division series.
For the wild card I want a best of 5 series.
Where…
If the higher seed finishes 0-2 games ahead it’s a straight best of 5 with them having home field advantage.
And if the higher seed finishes 3-5 games ahead they start the series with one win.
And if the higher seed finishes more than 5 games ahead they start the best of 3 series with 2 wins (only needing to win 1 in 3).
I agree with the thrill of the one-game wildcard. Chris Taylor’s walkoff in 2021 is one of my favorite playoff moments of all time. That tension is really tough to replicate.
I love the 2012-2019 + 2021 format, too. The one game wildcard (and potential tiebreaker games) structure seems to me the perfect balance of randomness and giving credit for the regular season. It felt to me like the culmination of 50-odd years of playoff structure tinkering (and no, it wasn’t the playoff format of my youth, either). At least the current playoff system is better than the 8 team version, since it gives division winners some advantage(s). Still, I really wish MLB had kept the 10 team format .
I like the true *wild*card.
Win the division, you’re in the playoffs, you get a series to earn the advance.
Didn’t win the division but have a great record? Well, you get one last chance into the playoffs but it’s a bit of a craps shoot. Tough luck.
Go back to two divisions per league. The fewer divisions less likely you are to end up with a subpar division winner hosting playoff games.
Ruth Division: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays, Guardians, Tigers.
Ichiro Division: White Sox, Royals, Twins, Mariners, Athletics, Angels, Astros, Rangers.
Clemente Division: Mets, Braves, Nationals, Phillies, Marlins, Pirates, Reds, Brewers.
Robinson Division: Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Giants, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Padres.
Six teams make the playoffs, shaking out like this. The regular season ends on a Sunday. Any ties for the six spot are played on Monday in game 163. On Tuesday, the 6 plays at 5, one game only. The winner then travels to the 4, for a best-of-three beginning on Wednesday. Every series afterwards is a best of seven..
So in the NL, the Phillies would have played at the Cubs for a single game on Tuesday. The winner then travels to San Diego for a best of three beginning the following day. The winner then goes on to play Milwaukee. For the 2-3 matchup (Braves-Dodgers), that begins Friday after the regular season.
Every team makes the playoffs. First the ten through fifteen seeds play each other. The three winners play the seven through nine seeds. Those three winners play the four through six seeds. Those three winners play the one through three seeds, leaving three teams to play an exciting triangular format where team A pitches to team B who pitches to team C who…
I know sports have gotten gimmicky over the years, but if they expand to 32 teams and don’t do 1 win or go home March madness style tournament in let’s say May once a year I feel like they are leaving money on the table. Of course it’s a lot of luck, but so is best of 3 (or 7). 4 host locations. Games play from 32 down to 4 in one day, little league/ travel ball style. Teams waiting to see who they play next same day. Great tv. Market it heavy. Then last 4 teams converge over a final location for last 2 days. Would be great fun.
There is a philosphical discussion to be had as to how many teams should make the playoffs. Traditionally very few did, with the idea that only the best teams should have a chance to win the championship and that the regular season should matter more. However, over the years and as owners relaized that playoffs made a lot of money and fans liked the idea of their home town team having a shot even if they had only a pretty good rather than a great year came into view, they have expanded massively.
The more the better is clearly winning, and across seemingly all sports, from MLB to college football to the World Cup.Which I don’t like; as for baseball, even though they just had two division-winner playoffs when I was 12 (I am pretty old), I think the 3 division winners and a songle wild card is great, and they should all matches 7-game series so the better team has a little more time to win as opposed to these (what I see as abominations) where 162 games of hard work are rendered irrelevant in two or three evenings of semi-random occurences.
Yes. But I think you covered the entirety of the discussion:
More playoff teams diminishes the spirit of the game and the value of the regular season. But everyone makes more money.
Nothing else to be said.
Thanks for the reply Jon. Very tasteful indeed. Got to remember some guys (Quinton McCracken! Andy LaRoche! Ryan Doumit! Terry Shumpert!) AND got some 70-80 grade names to boot:
Ski Melillo!
Skeeter Newsome!
Coco Laboy!
Tommy Thevethen? No, Thevenow!
Some really good Baseball Names in these charts Ski Mellilo, Coco Laboy, Skeeter Newsome
Since everyone is submitting their wild Playoff Format dreams…
I want the Regular Season to end around Labor Day.
Then the 7th seed plays the 6th in a one game playoff at the 6th. The winner immediately plays the 5th in a best of 3 all at the 5th.
That winner joins the top 4 (who must include all division winners) in a 5 team round robin where each team plays each 3 times for 12 total games (higher seed gets home field).
The top 2 teams (with reg season record being the tie-breaker) then play each other in a best of 7 series for the league championship as normal with the winners playing in the world series as normal.
This guarantees at least 12 critical postseason games for each of the top teams.
And gives a pretty significant advantage to reg-season record – especially to the 3 div winners and top wild card.
While also keeping the exciting short series eliminations and allowing even the 8/9 teams to feel like they have a chance up until the end.
It would end in early October (when baseball still makes sense and casuals haven’t tuned out).
And at the end fans will feel satisfied that the winner fully earned it.
I shuddered a little at the season ending around Labor Day, but I like this idea.
Maybe during the offseason Fangraphs could do some sort of crowdsourced “ideal playoff format” project – maybe given j a menu of options you can assemble different setups. The most popular could be voted on for the Official Fangraphs Playoff Format Suggestion
My playoff idea:
Make the regular season championship matter somehow.
Then have a post season tournament with every team.
This is the best idea.