FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: September 12, 2026
In last week’s mailbag, I ran through the list of teams that posted losing seasons and finished with positive run differentials. The question was inspired by this year’s Tigers, who were 64-75 (.460) when I wrote my response the previous afternoon, despite outscoring their opponents by 0.34 runs per game. I wrapped up my answer by mentioning that the Tigers could become the first team ever to lose 90 or more games during a season in which they scored more runs than they allowed. So before we get to this week’s mailbag, I’d like to provide an update on Detroit’s chance at history.
As of Friday afternoon, the Tigers had gone 3-4 in their past seven games, bringing their overall record to 67-79 (.459) with a per-game run differential of 0.377. Fittingly, all four of their losses in that span were decided by one run, while their margin of victory in their three wins was +12. They are the worst team in the majors this season in one-run games, with a record of 14-27 (.341). Their .459 winning percentage on the season puts them on pace for between 87 and 88 losses this year.
This week, I’ll answer the inverse of that question and discuss teams that finished above .500 with negative run differentials. We’ll also see how different baseball would be if teams could use a DH for every position, find the teams that score the most runs on bases-loaded walks and hit-by-pitches, and look at how teams should deploy their relievers in the ninth and 10th innings of tie games. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
re: the designated lineup, i feel strongly that brett phillips, austin hedges, or kyle schwarber, adam dunn, (jdp?) would wind up much more selected for than the kind of guys who can contribute positively on both sides but are not outliers. granted, most teams would make the defensive concessions for the bat, so the dunns and schwarbers of the world have their defensive shortcomings exhibited widely, not so much with the glove-first folks.
i think guys like ian happ and steven kwan would find themselves replaced by two players pretty quickly. (i don’t know why i picked two lf???)
I’d imagine if guys could be scouted and developed solely for defense, the skill level would be massively increased on that side of the ball. It would also likely push even more three true outcome offense as the defenses would make reaching base on balls in play significantly harder.
In this hypothetical world, the best 50 hitters at least would be guys that are in MLB. If you’re one of the best 50 offensive players, you have a job in MLB regardless of your defense. On the defensive side, I’d guess there are guys out there who aren’t even big leaguers who’d be top-10 defensive players. Guys who simply can’t hit at all just can’t make up for that with defense as things stand in reality.
Yeah, I feel like every team probably has a minor leaguer who was like “amazing defender, if only he could get the bat on the ball.” For the Pirates it was Stephen Alemais. Under the new rules those guys make the majors and don’t have to spend a lot of time trying to figure out a way to hit.
I’ve never understood why the DH is for pitchers only, just declare it’s for a particular lineup spot and let the manager choose who plays where. This would allow elimination of the special “starter can DH too” rule for two way players.
Sure, 99% of the time it would be the DH for the pitcher, but if a rule is never used, it doesn’t hurt anything. And I don’t see the downside to allowing the option.
There are pitchers who are better hitters than Carlos Narvaez or Sandy Leon. Your idea makes sense as it does eliminate the Ohtani Exemption.
I am very much in favor of this. If you have a pitcher who is that good of a hitter you should be rewarded for it, and then you get to have a DH sub in for Patrick Bailey (or Nicky Lopez, Ke’Bryan Hayes, etc)
And if you are a pitcher who is that good you should get to do it. Not a lot of them out there where the hitting would move the needle but for someone like Michael Lorenzen I think it would have the last few years.
The pipeline would change entirely too. Why be a NFL corner back and end up with CTE at 35 when you could make a few million in the big leagues? Or imagine the lateral range of a bunch of 6’10” NBA calibrt athlete 3B and SS.
The 2021 Mariners…I don’t think I realized what a truly weird season they had at the time. I knew it was weird, but I don’t remember it being historically weird.
That year they didn’t have any regular who was actually, you know, *good*, except for maybe Haniger at the plate. Even their lone All-Star, Yusei Kikuchi, collapsed in the second half. They had an elite bullpen which helped them win a ton of those 1-run games.
Lets go full football and add special teams. What does baserunning look like with elite speed all the time in the basepaths?
Billy Hamilton might still be playing.
Dave Roberts could be a player-manager and check himself in as a pinch runner.
But mostly I am guessing the base runners are the defenders.
Im saying expand the roster further. Maybe roster 3 runners so you could have one on each base and that’s their specialty.
Get real crazy with the cheese whiz and have starting blocks behind the umpire so no one ever has to run other than the designated runners.
It is hilarious that on the same day this posted the Cubs added two runs scored on base on balls or hit by pitch – while facing the Pirates. Did the Pirates read the mailbag and decide they needed to give away the lead?