Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to our AL Division Series Game 1 chat! We’ll be starting things off shortly
4:02
Jon Becker: Hi everybody! So glad you could be here with us for some afternoon ball.
4:02
Luke Hooper: What’s up! Excited for a good day of ball to get started.
4:06
David Laurila: Greetings, all.
4:08
Luke Hooper: ZiPS has this as the closest series of the opening round. 50.1 to 49.9 in favor of Houston.
4:08
David Laurila: Not worth a poll, but today’s Lance matchup begs a question: Who is the best-ever baseball Lance? Berkman and Parrish are presumably the top candidates?
4:09
Jay Jaffe: no love for Lance Broadway?
4:09
Jay Jaffe: I’d probably go with Berkman on that one.
4:09
DarthNateR: Now that we are into the meat of the playoffs, are there any projections for any of the teams or series that any of you personally think are way off? I appreciated the article earlier today about the disagreements of the projection systems. Looking for a little personal perspective on that topic.
4:09
Jay Jaffe: Looking at the ZiPS series projections, I’m surprised that the Astros, Rays, and Brewers aren’t as heavily favored in their series as the Dodgers are in theirs (~55%-45%). I know that Dan’s a beat behind as far as the Astros-White Sox matchup in that neither Odorizzi nor Keuchel were included on their respective rosters, but I haven’t taken a very close look at any of these that are further off.
4:09
David Laurila: Red Sox fans remember Rick Lancellotti.
4:11
10 Games is Great Sample Size: 8-2 for TA, Moncada, Abreu, Grandal, Robert, Eloy in the Lineup for the 2021 White Sox!
4:13
Jay Jaffe: having their main guys healthy is key for the White Sox but I don’t think anybody’s hanging their hats on a 10-game sample. Luis Robert has been freakin’ unreal since returning from injury (.350/.389/.622, 173 wRC+)
4:13
EcoResto: No love for Layne Nix huh
4:13
Jay Jaffe: we Nixed him, offficially
4:13
David Laurila: A matchup between a pitcher who throws mostly fastballs (albeit three varieties of such) and another who throw few fastballs is kind of fun.
4:14
Jay Jaffe: Agreed, this should be a cool contrast
4:14
Jon Becker: Really fun matchup, McCullers is going to be all about tunneling the two-seamer and breaking balls for whiffs and Lynn’s just trying to blow it right by you or miss the barrel with more subtle movement
4:15
David Laurila: FWIW: I picked the Astros to win the World Series in our recent staff predictions thingy. Not rooting for this to happen, but it is my prediction.
4:18
David Laurila: FWIW #2: Today’s home plate umpire, Adam Hamari, is from Marquette, Michigan. Upper Peninsula town close to where I grew up, and where I went to college.
4:18
5 Run Homer: This new Fox scorebug is atrocious
4:19
Wireless Joe Jackson: Is this a baseball chat or a jousting chat?
4:19
David Laurila: Both.
4:19
Zander: Thoughts on the new Fox scorebug? Those base icons are…something
4:19
Luke Hooper: First thoughts are that I don’t hate it. The base perspective is cool. The important stuff is nice and big.
4:19
Jay Jaffe: Yikes, that thing is awful
4:20
Jay Jaffe: I think the actual scorebug is way too clunky and busy. The old one was one of the best around — very clean.
4:20
Steven: Perhaps a better question for KG, but what in the world do the Astros know about catching that public facing metrics haven’t captured considering Martin Maldonado and his 63 wRC+ starts behind the plate for them?
4:20
Jon Becker: He’s an above-average framer and has a cannon; I don’t think that outweighs this level of badness at the plate, but FWIW (I think this is FWIW #3 now, David) I think pitchers love throwing to him too
4:21
David Laurila: Astros batters had the lowest strikeout rate, the lowest swinging-strike%, and the second lowest O-Swing% in the A.L. Good qualities, those.
4:21
Deb: At least FS1 still giving us the pitch speed and strike zone outline. Was weird without either in the TBS broadcast last night
4:22
Jon Becker: My perhaps-controversial take is that I don’t miss the K zone at all, gives me a new appreciation for umpiring
4:22
Jay Jaffe: apparently they had some technical difficulties. It was weird but also I didn’t miss the k zone thing because I had Gameday and Baseball Savant going
4:21
Steven: MVP batting 6th. Damn the Astros are good.
4:22
Pablito: Score bug should be at least 50% smaller otherwise it’s ok. The previous one seemed bland but was never distracting
4:23
David Laurila: Broadcast thought: “A big strikeout” is maybe a bit hyperbolic when it’s the leadoff hitter in a scoreless first inning.
4:23
Pale Hose Time: Fun fact (or not so fun if your a Sox fan like me):Roger Clemens was the Game 1 starter the last time the White Sox won a playoff series
4:23
David Laurila: Definitely a fun fact.
4:25
Jon: Plug for David’s near hometown: Marquette, MI is a great place to visit. Some good breweries, good hiking/biking, ski hill, and pictured rocks lakeshore not far away. Been there numerous times from the Green Bay area.
4:25
David Laurila: Jon sounds like a good guy.
4:26
Guest: Really sad no one is calling this a joust, LANCE Lynn vs. LANCE McCullers. BECAUSE THAT IS HILARIOUS.
4:27
Joey Caltrain: Sorry if I missed some news, but why isn’t Andrew Vaughn in the lineup today?
4:29
Jay Jaffe: Likely because he doesn’t hit righties (.221/.277/.332) and Adam Engel does
4:27
Jon Becker: I’m assuming this is just to get another lefty (Sheets) in there against McCullers
4:27
Luke Hooper: Yea, I definitely did not get the joust joke earlier. I get it now.
4:28
Luke Hooper: Vaughn has a 31 wRC+ since I wrote about him in August. I’ll take the L on that one Sox fans.
4:28
Guest: Vaughn has also been battling injury and ineffectiveness over the past month or so, while Sheets has consistently produced when given a shot.
4:29
James: Any thoughts on the guy with the highest WRC+ among players still in the playoffs batting 7th?
Jay Jaffe: Feels like a throwback to the time when Dusty Baker’s batting orders made very little sense.
4:32
Jay Jaffe: But the above article (which I hadn’t seen previouslY) offers a reasonable explanation.
4:31
David Laurila: A quick programming note: Washington Post national baseball writer Chelsea Janes is one of the guests on tomorrow’s FanGraph Audio episode. She covered both Wildcard games.
4:32
Joe: Are the White Sox the coolest team left?
4:32
Jon Becker: Very high Fun Differential
4:33
Jon Becker: Aaaaaaaand that’s why you can deal with Maldonado’s 63 wRC+
4:33
David Laurila: Did someone ask earlier about why Maldonado plays?
4:33
Luke Hooper: Amazing throw, perfect tag.
4:34
TKDC: All the people bashing analytics because Kevin Cash took Snell out early are praising analytics for Dave Roberts pulling Scherzer, right? Right? RIGHT?
4:34
Jon Becker: Completely different scenarios, I’d say. Scherzer was absolutely laboring
4:35
Jay Jaffe: yeah, Scherzer was a mechanical mess. Did a great job of keeping the Dodgers in the game but there was only so far Roberts could push that.
4:35
Jay Jaffe: and the job that the Dodgers’ bullpen did afterwards vindicated the move
4:36
Luke Hooper: Plus it gave us an all-time great coach/player mound interaction
4:36
David Laurila: With tonight’s game in mind, the other Sox were easy to run against this season.
4:36
BringBackDeSpanielHair: “Prodigious” just got used properly on a national broadcast. This game is already delivering the goods
4:37
Jacob: I do think the Brewers are pretty cool with Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Hader, Adames, Garcia, Yelich, Wong. They are fun!
4:38
Luke Hooper: Brewers are definitely up there in fun factor. Losing Williams and his changeup is a big knock though.
4:38
Jay Jaffe: That Brewers pitching staff is sick. When I wrote about Devin Williams’ injury, I noted that they had seven pitchers each with a pitch that was among the 33 most valuable in the majors according to Statcast https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-devin-williams-has-punched-him…
4:38
Guest: What happened to Christian Vázquez’s arm?
4:38
David Laurila: A big part of the issue in Boston is that runners got good jumps, resulting in hurried throws.
4:39
Jay Jaffe: How about Bellinger running on Molina twice last night?
4:41
Luke Hooper: I wish we still had catcher poptime info on Savant.
Jay Jaffe: I saw Gurriel play for the Cuban team during the 2006 World Baseball Classic. Went down to Puerto Rico for the first round of games. That was freakin’ cool.
4:43
TKDC: I didn’t say they were the same scenarios. I didn’t say Cash didn’t deserve criticism. The bashing of analytics was what was stupid.
4:43
Jay Jaffe: this is re Scherzer/Snell “analytics” often functions as a Rorschach blot for critics of whatever is transpiring. All we know is that those nerds need to pull their heads out of a spreadsheet and watch a ballgame
4:43
Jay Jaffe: Here’s Tucker batting 7th in a big spot
4:44
Jon Becker: Good baserunning there by Alvarez, really tough for an OF to square himself to throw when his momentum’s going in the other direction
JC: Too early for this thought, but if the Stros reach the WS, does Tucker move to CF with Alvarez in RF? Haven’t watched any of their interleague games this season
4:47
Jon Becker: I’d be very, very reluctant to have Alvarez play OF anywhere but LF at Minute Maid
4:48
Jon Becker: (and, of course, they wouldn’t need him to play the OF at MM)
4:48
Jay Jaffe: He’s never played RF in the bigs and just 2 games in the minors
4:49
Derek: It’s weird to me that “LET’S GO” has become so ubiquitous as the thing to say/yell when something good happens, across all sports and beyond, and across all ages. When and why did this happen??
4:50
Jay Jaffe: Random internet page:
Uses of the phrase ‘let’s go’ can be found as early as 1615 in Shakespeare’s Comedy of Errors, which reads, “Now let’s go hand in hand, no one before another.”
4:50
Jay Jaffe: Shakespeare was of course a big sports fan, known for leading cheers atop dugouts
4:51
Luke Hooper: “Let’s go” has seemingly always been a thing to say in anticipation of something. But shouting “let’s go” after something good just happened does seem to be fairly new. It’s just feels good to say.
4:52
David Laurila: Just catching up to the news that while he’s on the ALDS roster, JD Martinez ‘and his bad ankle aren’t in the Red Sox lineup tonight.
4:52
Jay Jaffe: can’t believe how fluky that injury is
4:52
Steven: “Let’s Go” was popularized by Brett Lawrie of the 2011 Blue Jays, according to one University of Toronto Linguist (kind of)
Jay Jaffe: Let’s go was big when I was still in short pants in the 1970s. AIn’t no Brett Lawrie thing
4:53
Luke Hooper: I can picture Brett Lawrie shouting that though. It fits.
4:53
Jay Jaffe: I mean, that guy was shouting all the time.
4:54
Guest: The JD injury wouldn’t have happened if the Red Sox didn’t have to play by NL rules in the final series of the season
4:54
Jon Becker: It wouldn’t have, but hey, every AL team has to do it at some point
4:55
David Laurila: A.J. Pierzynski just mispronounced home plate umpire Adam Hamari’s name . Imperfect game prep for the former backstop.
4:57
James: They tried the outfield shuffle with Brantley in RF and Tuck in center. It went poorly
4:57
Jay Jaffe: Looks like they went 2-2 against NL West teams with the Alvarez-Tucker-Brantley outfield, splitting a pair with the Dodgers, losing once to the Padres and beating the Giants. Pretty small sample
4:58
JC: Greinke and Verlander coming off the books after this year, and they’ve proved they don’t really need them. Where does that money go this offseason?
4:58
Jon Becker: I don’t think you ever want to fall into the trap of thinking you have too many SP, but yes, they can make a very good rotation without them. I’ve got them at $107M for next year (before arb raises), after $189M next year. Shortstop is the obvious answer, and the bullpen has Pressly, Maton and Taylor as the only major contributors returning. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/astros
4:58
Jon Becker: Let’s say it’s really $115M, because Gurriel’s option is definitely getting exercised. Still, a lot to work with.
5:00
Jay Jaffe: they’re going to at least issue a QO to Verlander, just saw news of that. Wouldn’t be a surprise if he returns.
4:59
Brian: The best SS free agent is ???
4:59
Jon Becker: Correa > Seager > Story > Báez, IMO. Thoughts, fellas?
5:00
Jay Jaffe: I think that’s fair and that there’s a big gap between Seager and Story
5:00
Luke Hooper: I’m good with that order. I could maybe flop Seager and Correa.
5:00
David Laurila: If there is a Game 4 in this series, it will start at 3:30 ET/2:30 ET on Monday.
5:03
David Laurila: If there are two Game 5s in the AL, Rays-Red Sox will be in the late afternoon, and Astros-White Sox at night.
5:03
Scotty: Saw this stat and wondered if any team had an easier schedule: The White Sox only played 56 games against opponents with a winning record this year.
5:03
Jay Jaffe: at least in the AL that was by far the least, and they went 27-29 against those teams. One reason why I think this isn’t as close as the ZiPS odds made them out to be (bigger edge for Astros)
5:04
David Laurila: Great play by Moncada.
5:05
Luke Hooper: That throw was ridiculously quick.
5:05
Jay Jaffe: In the NL, the Dodgers played only 62 games against .500+ and went 35-27. Giants were 35-28
5:05
Brian: FS1 is down… anyone else?
5:05
David Laurila: Working fine for me.
5:06
Semien: Am I before or after Story?
5:06
Jon Becker: Juuuust after in my opinion but ahead of Báez
5:06
Jay Jaffe: I’d put you before Story but I think counting on another 40+ homer season is folly
5:07
David Laurila: I’d take Story.
5:07
Luke Hooper: I’d take Story mostly because of age.
5:09
David Laurila: Plays at the plate are fun. That one was very fun.
5:09
Luke Hooper: Hamari might have been my favorite part of that play.
5:10
5 Run Homer: That’s a hell of a slide
5:10
David Laurila: That was actually a very good play by umpire. Footwork had him perfectly positioned, and he had to be quick.
5:10
Alex M: Why was that scored a sac bunt? By the rulebook it should be a 5-3 ground out. He was bunting for a hit.
5:11
Luke Hooper: I umpired a lot through college. I was ALWAYS out of position. It’s not easy.
5:12
Nate: I saw where Jim Crane, commenting about Verlander indicated that he’d like a multi year deal if he can. Think someone will give him one nice enough to pass on the QO?
5:13
Jay Jaffe: he has to decide about the QO before any other team can make him another offer
5:14
Jon Becker: He can get offers during the ten-day decision period but most teams (especially with all the CBA uncertainty) won’t be in a position of deciding to offer a huge contract in mid-November
5:13
David Laurila: Yordan Alvarez has a 153 wRC+ in 976 career regular season plate appearances. He deserves more hype than he gets,
5:13
Dave: Yordan Alvarez is a man
5:13
Shodai: Thank you David for reminding me that Joe West is no longer an active MLB Umpire!
5:16
Jay Jaffe: MLB has only announced umpires through the Division Series, West might be back for an LCS or the World Series
5:14
David Laurila: West wouldn’t have moved that adroitly.
5:16
Dan: the narrative about the Astros being good fastball hitters makes Lynn an interesting choice for a game 1 starter. I guess this result could’ve been expected
5:20
Jay Jaffe: Astros’ .366 wOBA against 4-seamers was 5th in MLB, and .365 (also 5th) if you lump sinkers and cutters into the mix
5:17
Luke Hooper: Alvarez with a career .422 wOBA on fastballs too
5:20
Rain: McCullers currently winning the Lanceathon
5:20
James Watkins: I feel like the Astros will actually prioritize Correa because attracting other FA’s right now may be tough, despite on field performance
5:20
Jon Becker: Maybe (or just because he’s the best SS on the market), but ultimately the best way to attract FA is with money, which the Astros sure seem willing to spend. So few vestiges left from the 2017 anyway
5:21
Joey Caltrain: Really gratifying to hear the broadcasters complimenting Tim Anderson for his personality instead of complaining about it
5:22
David Laurila: Didn’t hear them as I was at the game, but the AL Wildcard Nercast had to have been good.
5:22
Jon Becker: It was great, it takes the right blend of people to make three-person booths work, and they crushed it.
5:23
Luke Hooper: especially when the booth was the size of a spare closet
5:23
Jay Jaffe: That group — Benetti, Perez, and Petriello — has done enough of those games that they’re really good together
5:24
Jay Jaffe: beats the hell out of listening to A-Rod babble for nine innings.
5:24
Derek: Benetti is the man, therefore it was indeed great
5:24
David Laurila: Petriello mentioned the small booth size to me pregame. Not normally a broadcast booth, but multiple broadcast teams that night.
5:25
Andrew: Benetti is just fantastic. I’d like if he got big playoff assignments.
5:26
Luke Hooper: Sounds like Benetti is in the running for Sunday Night baseball next year.
5:25
Luke Hooper: It was pretty hilarious when they showed shots in the booth. They couldn’t even fit shoulder to shoulder so Mike was like a foot forward from the others.
5:26
Phil: I’m sure I could put this more succinctly, but: if three competing LaRussa narratives are 1. fogey who doesn’t understand analytics; 2.insensitive old white dude who doesn’t understand his players; 3. genius who has baseball in his bones; are all of these equally a little bit true, are all of them false, or is one of them a little more true than the others?
5:26
David Laurila: 2 probably closest to true,
5:27
David Laurila: Eduardo fills more booth than most. He is by no means a small man.
5:29
BustyDaker: Lets go!!
5:29
Bunk: Let’s Go was popularized by Lil Jon
5:29
Alex M: I wonder if “Let’s Go” in this context or “Vamos” in Spanish is older in usage.
5:30
Luke Hooper: Had to dust off some more lets go banter on the commercial break
5:30
Jay Jaffe:
5:30
Jay Jaffe: 1962
5:32
Luke Hooper: So shakespeare, then The Routers, then Lil Jon, then Brett Lawrie
5:32
Jay Jaffe: and this dates to 1959
5:33
Mike: Wow that song was like, not good
5:33
Jay Jaffe: might as well throw the Cars in there, from 1979, reprising the claps
5:33
Cocopuffs: The connections between Shakespeare and Lil Jon grow by the day
5:33
David Laurila: Grant Balfour K’d a batter to end a close game a few years ago, silencing the Fenway Park crowd. Balfour’s euphoric shout could be heard clear as a bell in the press box, and it was far more colorful than “Let’s Go.”
5:34
Cocopuffs: All closers should be swearing Aussies
5:35
JC: The next great market inefficiency
5:37
David Laurila: Given that he was a pitcher, Lance Painter might be the best Painter name-wise.
5:37
Best Lance?: The best Lance for me is Lance Laybourn, 1969 Pony Leaguer for me! Damn, will I split a gut if Lance reads this and responds
5:37
Jay Jaffe: I’m liking this score bug less and less.
5:38
Luke Hooper: I’m still liking the scorebug fine. But also enjoying the giant insect content.
5:39
Dan: Gotta send Myers there!
5:39
Jon Becker: I think he would’ve been out by 30 feet
5:41
David Laurila: “Professional hitter” is… not a good term.
5:41
Jon Becker: They all are! Even Maldonado!
5:42
David Laurila: I think we’ve reached bullpen time.
5:43
Buddha Corndog: No one is ever called a professional pitcher.
5:43
Jay Jaffe:
How much did the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal affect your enjoyment of Jose Altuve?
Enjoy him more based on reports that he didn’t use the system (10.3% | 13 votes)
No change (26.9% | 34 votes)
Enjoy him a bit less (25.3% | 32 votes)
Enjoy him a lot less (23.0% | 29 votes)
I can’t even anymore (14.2% | 18 votes)
Total Votes: 126
5:43
James Watkins: I dunno, that seemed awfully professional to me
5:45
Train Noises: I enjoy Altuve a bit less now, but only because he didn’t embrace being a heel as much as Correa did.
5:48
Anthony: Regarding the shortstop free agents, how would lindor be ranked with them pre-2021 and post-2021?
5:48
Jon Becker: Now this is an interesting one. I’d have had Lindor first pre-2021, I think I would have him third now
5:48
Jon Becker: (after Correa and Seager)
5:49
Jay Jaffe: Good q. For me he’s fallen behind Correa and Seager too
5:50
JC: Also in regards to Free Agency, is Freeman pretty much an assumed lock back to ATL
5:50
Jon Becker: I hate to assume anything, but… yeah
5:50
Jay Jaffe: I assume he’s staying put
5:51
David Laurila: Jose Atuve has the second-most WAR and second-highest wRC+ (min. 1,500 PAs) among second baseman since he broke into MLB in 2011. Cano is tops in both categories,
5:53
Anthony: Do any of the free agent shortstops project to get paid more than lindor? Or did the Mets paint themselves into a corner trying to jump on the free agent market?
5:53
Jon Becker: I don’t think so, no; I doubt anyone clears, say, $280M. But it’s not the Mets painting themselves into a corner either, IMO: Lindor is still a great baseball player and they still have a ton of money to spend.
5:53
David Laurila: That’s a tough error.
5:54
Dalton Wilcox: Is Cano underrated? Just barely not a HoFer for me but also a player I consider one of the handful most talented players I’ve ever seen
5:55
Jay Jaffe: Cano would be an easy HOFer if he hadn’t gotten suspended twice. He’s 7th in JAWS, and before his suspension appeared to have a shot at 3,000 hits.
5:56
Jay Jaffe: even if he were done, 2,624 hits, 334 homers and ~70 WAR is an easy Hall of Famer, but the suspensions change how that will be viewed
5:57
David Laurila: OK, Pierzynski just mispronounced Adam Hamari’s name again, even though his broadcast partner gets it right every time. Silly that it bugs me, but it bugs me.
5:57
Jay Jaffe: I think he’s OK in the booth but Pierzynski has spent a lifetime in baseball finding ways to get on people’s nerves.
5:58
JC: What kind of deal do you guys project for a super utility guy like Chris Taylor? Obviously we saw Enrique Hernandez last year get that 2/14M. Is it similar?
5:58
Jon Becker: A lot more, especially if he keeps rebounding during the playoffs from his horrible finish to the season. Hernández’s career-high in PA before FA was 462, and Taylor’s topped that thrice. I’ll say 3y/$45M even though he’s entering FA almost two years older than Kiké did.
5:58
Jay Jaffe: i was thinking something in the 4/$60M range before his second-half slump. 3/$40-$45 might be closer to where he winds up now
6:00
David Laurila: Sarah Langs on Twitter: 4 of Lance Lynn’s 76 pitches today were fastballs (4-seam, sinkers, cutters). That’s 97.4%. That’s the highest rate of fastballs thrown in a postseason start in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008).
6:00
David Laurila: That’s “74” pitches.
6:01
James Watkins: What type of deal do you all see Correa, Seager, Semien getting? 8/240, 8/270, 4/100?
6:01
Jon Becker: More like 7/210 for Seager but the other two sound about right
6:02
Jon Becker: (sorry to turn this into the Free Agent Shortstop Chat but I can’t resist!)
6:02
Jay Jaffe: it’s a fair topic in a game where Correa is playing!
6:02
Jon Becker: Also important to note that Leury García is ALSO playing in this game and ALSO a pending free agent shortstop
6:04
Jon Becker: Yordan didn’t get anywhere near all of that one and still hit it out
6:04
Jay Jaffe: Alvarez with the big fly
6:04
David Laurila: Yordan Alvarez is a beast.
6:04
Mark: Lots of teams should be looking to sign Chris Taylor, right? I feel like he would make just about every team better
6:05
Jay Jaffe: Yes. It will be interesting to see how much of a play the Dodgers make to keep him with Seager also hitting the market
6:05
James Watkins: Someone earlier said he needs more hype than he gets and they are absolutely correct
6:07
Luke Hooper: Sorry for the absence. I was resolving a Dog Vs. Squirrel incident in my backyard
6:07
Jon Becker: Was it a closer game than the one the rest of us are watching?
6:07
Jay Jaffe: what did ZiPS say about that matchup, Luke?
6:08
Luke Hooper: It was remarkably similar to this game but happened in about 3 minutes instead of 3 hours.
6:09
Shodai: I’m willing to let bygones be bygones if Houston can save us from the inevitable deluge of insufferable LaRussa articles if the Sox were to win it all.
6:09
Jay Jaffe: leaving the players aside, I’d much rather see Dusty win than Tony, that’s for sure.
6:09
Joey Caltrain: The broadcasters still haven’t mentioned the sign-stealing scandal yet. Even when talking about hiring Baker. It’s kind of impressive.
6:09
David Laurila: Old news.
6:10
Luke Hooper: Yes, Dusty needs a ring. Game 6 in 2002 must still haunt him.
6:10
Jay Jaffe: it feels to me like they’re worried they’ll turn people off if they go in on the scandal
6:12
Down Under: Do you think the Twins will sign good free agent shortstop this winter?
6:12
Jay Jaffe: no. I can’t see them spending the big dollars it will take and a 73-89 record isn’t a great advertisement for top-tier free agents.
6:14
Jon Becker: I think if they surprise and spend big or big-ish on anything it’s pitching, with Maeda down, Pineda an FA and Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan the only youngsters who looked ready
6:16
Down Under: Thanks guys, I enjoy these chats alot
6:18
David Laurila: The White Sox beat the Cubs 17-13 on August 27. Time of game was 4:09. (Looks at clock.)
6:18
Jay Jaffe: McCullers has pretty much cruised so far. 1 hit, 0 walks, 2 hard-hit balls both of which were grounders
6:19
Jay Jaffe: Regardless of who wins this game, he wins the Lance-Off
6:20
Luke Hooper: Somehow McCullers has as many whiffs on his sinker as on his slider and curve combined.
6:19
Bunk: Will there be live chats tomorrow?
6:19
Jon Becker: Yes! There’ll be chats during both of the NL Games One.
6:20
JC: Best part of these chats is the bosses thinking I’m typing away at work
6:20
James Watkins: So who do we put in the SS market? NYY, Hou, LAA, Det, Tex?
6:20
Jon Becker: Would add Phillies to this too, based on Dombrowski’s noncommittal to Gregorious yesterday.
6:21
Jay Jaffe: Sir Didi had a real Replacement Level Killer season. 68 wRC+, 0.0 WAR. Woof
6:21
Kosch: Dusty goes to the pen here in the 7th no?
6:22
Jon Becker: Nobody up in the pen, per The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan
6:22
David Laurila: Not necessarily. McCullers is at 89 pitches and he went 100-plus numerous times this season.
6:23
Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t be surprised if Dusty tries to coax another inning out of him
6:23
JC: Semien going in as a SS or 2B? Or whoever pays him the most?
6:24
David Laurila: Lots of Marcus Semien questions in today’s chat.
6:24
Jon Becker: I’d say whoever pays him the most, I’d be perfectly comfortable with him at either spot
6:26
Jay Jaffe: As for me, I don’t have another inning — gotta go make dinner. The rest of the gang here will close this one out. Good times chatting with you all — I’ll be back to do this again sometime next week. In the meantime, mind the giant scorebugs
6:26
Luke Hooper: Later Jay!
6:26
Jon Becker: 👋
6:27
Luke Hooper: I’m sure Semien’s season at second will only help him. He’s proven he can play either and that has surely opened up his free agent options.
6:29
Joey Caltrain: Why are they using Crochet in a 6-0 game?
6:29
Jon Becker: Kimbrel, Bummer, Kopech and of course Hendriks are all ahead of him in the hierarchy, teams don’t really roster “white flag” relievers in the playoffs anyway
6:31
JC: Is this the offseason one of or both of Chapman/Olson are moved to just add to the infield conglomerate on the market?
6:31
David Laurila: I don’t see why the A’s would move either of them.
6:33
Jon Becker: It’s a tough needle to thread and they have a big arbitration class coming up but I don’t think the payroll will be at a point where they “have to” (i.e., because of self-imposed spending restrictions vs. an actual lack of money) trade anyone https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/athletics
6:33
Jon Becker: Whether they actually do remains to be seen, nothing would surprise me with them.
6:33
David Laurila: Olson is Oakland’s cornerstone, and Chapman’s current value is maybe not high enough to where they’d get a great return.
6:33
Mark: How lopsided would the game have to be for us to see a position player pitcher in the postseason?
6:34
Jon Becker: Cliff Pennington was the first to ever do that (for the Blue Jays in 2015), I think it was a double-digit deficit at the time
6:35
Luke Hooper: Well McCullers is back out there.
6:36
Luke Hooper: Really feels like the last good chance to get back in this game.
6:36
Jon Becker: First time he’s looked really off with his command, and this is the part of the lineup you want to exploit that
6:36
Bob Castellini: Someone mentioned packaging Gray and Moose together to clear some payroll… does that seem like a Reds move? What comes next?
6:36
David Laurila: I recently opined on a Cincinnati sports radio show that the Reds really need to spend money this offseason. It’s not something they like to do, but they should do it.
6:37
Jon Becker: Too much talent on the top-end of that roster to not augment on the edges
6:38
David Laurila: So, my TV just went to commercial for a few seconds in the middle of a play.
6:38
Jon Becker: Same!
6:38
Luke Hooper: FS1 just cut to a Geico commercial right as Altuve was fielding that.
6:38
Jon Becker: Maybe they REALLY want us to save 15% or more on car insurance
6:38
Zander: Anyone else watching on YouTube TV? They just cut to a Geico commercial right before Altuve picked up that grounder, and didn’t cut back until the play was over…
6:39
Luke Hooper: Some people were complaining about FS1 issues earlier in the game too
6:39
David Laurila: Someone in control room must have thought, “I wonder what this button is for”?
6:40
Luke Hooper: Haha, there are a few buttons in this chat interface that I’m wondering the same thing about.
6:41
darkness88: They did the same just before the first inning
6:42
Fozzz: why did the Fangraphs staff writers vote so heavily in favor of the Sox when the projection systems had this series fairly even or the Astros as a favorite?
6:42
David Laurila: I have Astros winning World Series, so…
6:43
Jon Becker: Goes without saying, but what an incredible start from McCullers.
6:44
Luke Hooper: that double play we all missed was huge.
6:44
David Laurila: Red Sox reporter Jen McCaffrey on Twitter a few minutes ago: “JD Martinez just came out to take batting practice.”
6:45
Jon Becker: Not in the lineup today (I think you noted that earlier, David) but a very welcome sight, I’m sure.
6:45
Guest: Cora said JD is available to pinch hit and will hopefully start tomorrow
6:46
Luke Hooper: Brandon Belt was also taking grounders yesterday, which I was quite surprised to see.
6:48
Jon Becker: Good job by Maton there, don’t want to give the White Sox any hope
6:48
David Laurila: Astros win probability is at 99.1% right now.
6:49
darkness88: Still kind of angry that Straw only returned Maton
6:49
David Laurila: Straw was pretty good with Cleveland.
Luke Hooper: Yea he did have a really nice season and Maton was kind of meh.
6:52
David Laurila: When I interviewed Myles Straw early this season, I asked him about having never reached via HBP in a big-league game. That changed the very same night,
6:52
Jon Becker: Is there a Laurila Curse?
6:52
David Laurila: Nah, it helped his OBP.
6:53
Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: I think the Astros were trying to sell high on Straw while making room for Meyers. Straw doesn’t have much room to get better than he is now – Meyers does
6:54
JC: David, would you interview me and ask about why I haven’t achieved all my hopes and dreams? I wanna test out a theory
6:54
David Laurila: First time I talked to Curtis Grandson he ran into a wall a few hours later and had to be helped off field. Missed a few weeks. That was in Double-A.
6:55
David Laurila: Hopes and dreams are overrated.
6:57
Phil: I’ve been puzzling all day over the Red Sox roster (particularly no Barnes or Sawamura, both of whom looked decent over the last week or so, though of course terrible before that). They seemed to have strongly prioritized people who could go multiple innings for the last couple of bullpen spots. Is this a reasonable strategy, given that we’re talking about people likely to be entering a game that the starter has already screwed up?
6:57
David Laurila: Sawamura not on roster surprises me a bit.
6:59
Jon Becker: Quite a fall from grace for Barnes too, huh? From a nice extension in July to being left off the roster now.
7:01
David Laurila: Meanwhile, it is now 7 pm here on the east coast and I have opened a bottle of Octoberfest.
7:01
Phil: I’m also not totally sure I get Santana being included, although their utility options are limited with Iglesias ineligible. When is the last time he faced major-league pitching? It’s hard to imagine he’d be used except as a defensive replacement/injury protection, yes?
7:01
Jon Becker: I forget who it was, but one of the Red Sox beat writers made an astute point: he’s not as good a fielder as Araúz or as fast a runner as Durran, but he accomplishes both roles in one spot, and the Red Sox needed to add SP back to the roster.
7:02
Luke Hooper: fall beers are officially here
7:03
Luke Hooper: David, what was your favorite interview you did this year?
7:04
David Laurila: I never know how to answer the favorite interview question.
7:06
Luke Hooper: That’s probably fair
7:06
Jon Becker: Kendall Graveman with a six-run lead is a little surprising here, but Dusty’s not taking anything for granted, I guess
7:06
David Laurila: Recent ones I was pleased with are Josh Donaldson on hitting and Eli Morgan on changeups. I did one with Bobby Dalbec that was 100% about music. That was fun.
7:08
Luke Hooper: I eat up all your changeup interviews. Those are my favorite
7:07
JC: Just noticed Brett Phillips didn’t make the ALDS roster, thoughts? Kinda sad to see him miss it, but interesting decision as well considering his late-game flexibility with defense and speed
7:07
David Laurila: No Phillips struck me as odd, because he’s magic.
7:08
Jon Becker: Two lefty starters in the first two games didn’t help his chances, but yeah, surprising to see him left off, especially when he’s a far superior fielder to Luplow.
7:08
Jon Becker: From MLB Communications: The 2021 Wild Card round averaged 7.1M viewers, the most-watched Wild Card round since 2015 and second most-watched since the inception of the current format in 2012.
7:10
Luke Hooper: With those matchups and fanbases, it better have been the biggest.
7:10
Joey Caltrain: The Rays are saving up their Phillips magic for the World Series
7:12
James: Why use Graveman here? Game is in hand and he doesn’t do back-to-backs much?
7:15
Jon Becker: I’d guess it’s a matter of Dusty wanting to lock this down with his best relievers or Graveman falling back in the hierarchy a bit.
7:13
David Laurila: Circling back to the bottle of Octoberfest I opened at 7 o’clock, I bought a six of Allgauer a few days ago. This is the first one I’ve tried and my initial impression is “meh.”
7:14
Luke Hooper: If this was a better game it would taste better.
7:15
Luke Hooper: maybe a homer here will turn things around
7:15
David Laurila: Win probability is up to 99.4%. Would love a long ball to put this game within reach.
7:16
Jon Becker: Alright, might be something of a ballgame now…
7:16
Luke Hooper: That massive secondary lead TA was getting certainly helped there.
7:18
Jon Becker: Makeup call there for the 0-0 on that 2-0 pitch…
7:18
SucramRenrut: Anyone remember when Graveman averaged 91mph on his FB and Kd less than 6 per 9? Wild times.
7:19
David Laurila: When the Red Sox beat the Yankees 6-2 on Tuesday, Joey Gallo followed a one-out ninth-inning home run with a towering 370-foot fly out. Kind of wonder if drama would have ensued had it gone out to make it 6-3. Rookie pitcher on mound.
7:21
Guest: Grandal smoked it 103.8 mph but to the wrong place
7:21
David Laurila: Per Red Sox reporter Peter Abraham on Twitter: “Red Sox radio broadcasters Joe Castiglione and Will Flemming are on hand for a road game for the first time since 2019.”
7:23
Phil: I wondered about that, David. They were doing the away games from their booth at Fenway all season, at times reporting on a concert going on there while calling the game off of the TV feed.
7:25
Luke Hooper: Road broadcasts were pretty nuts this year, especially with the limited number of cameras.
7:25
David Laurila: Other teams’ radio broadcasters — not a ton, but some — started showing up at Fenway in the second half of the season. They were all relieved and pleased to be calling game live.
7:25
Jon Becker: I can’t even imagine how difficult broadcasting remotely must’ve been.
7:26
David Laurila: It was worse for broadcasters in the minors, as they had lower-quality feeds to call games off of.
7:28
David Laurila: While we’re on the subject, both the Astros and White Sox have fantastic broadcast teams. As high-quality as the TV guys are, radio is even better.
7:29
Al Avila: After I sign a star shortstop free agent, what SP do I add to the top of my rotation? Any interesting trades out there?
7:29
Jon Becker: I doubt Chris Ilitch signs off on two expensive FA signs so it’d have to be via trade, yes. Not sure how available he’d be but Frankie Montas would be a good get.
7:30
David Laurila: This baseball contest appears to be limping toward a benign finish. Anyone have a good, fairly concise (and clean) joke they can share?
7:32
Jon Becker: A termite walks into the bar and asks, “Is the bar tender here?”
7:32
Smiling Politely: What’s a Pirate’s favorite movie? Anything rated Rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
7:34
Smiling Politely: Where do Pirates eat when they’re on land? aRRRRRRRRRRRRRby’s (I worked at a summer camp; I can do this all day)
7:34
Luke Hooper: Is Pirate your only genre?
7:34
David Laurila: Dusty giving some of his best relievers work makes a certain amount of sense, but at the same time, it’s a tad questionable.
7:35
Guest: Did you hear the joke about the pop fly? Forget it, it’s way over your head
7:35
What’s a Pirate’s Favorite Letter?: You’d think it is R, but their true love be the C.
7:36
David Laurila: Bigger groaner, this game or the jokes?
7:36
Luke Hooper: the jokes.
7:36
The 6ix: I think this is beyond questionable.
7:37
Guest: I have to think that this is bc they haven’t pitched since Saturday or Sunday
7:37
Jon Becker: Perfect pitch by Pressly
7:38
Luke Hooper: That was pretty
7:39
David Laurila: There will be a lot of great postseason games, and we’ll have chats for most, but today wasn’t one of them. Definitely appreciate so many people sticking around until the end, even though we haven’t had much to discuss in terms of drama or decisions.
7:40
Jon Becker: Yes, thank you to all of us for joining us! As this game/chat nears its end, a reminder that there’ll be chats tomorrow during both NL games!
7:43
Jon Becker: Oh hey, a questionable check-swing call!
7:43
Luke Hooper: Now it feels like a real game!
7:44
Jon Becker: Aaaaand that’ll do it. Thanks all for joining us!
7:44
Luke Hooper: Wow, what a play to end it!
7:45
Luke Hooper: Have a good night everyone. We’ll see you tomorrow!
7:45
David Laurila: That was that. Final thoughts: Graveman and Pressley threw more pitches than was idea. The Astros are in a good spot now given this is a five-game series. Lastly, thanks everyone for chatting.
Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.