FanGraphs White Sox/Astros ALDS Game 4 Chat

by Meg Rowley

October 12, 2021

2:00

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone! Ben Clemens and I are here to provide ‘insight’, take your questions and provide some entertainment as we all watch game 4 of the ALDS between the White Sox and the Astros. Thanks so much for joining us. We’ve had a lot of fun doing these and it’s always great to spend time with our fantastic audience.

2:00	Ben Clemens: Kevin on my sheet it says you’re here for insight and me for whimsy

2:01	Kevin Goldstein: Hmmmmm, I have it reversed. I’ll call Meg.

2:01	Ben Clemens: Though it might be hard to match David Ortiz trying and failing to pour a briefcase full of money onto Frank Thomas

2:01	Ben Clemens: when it comes to forced whimsy

2:01	darkness88: A few days ago I leadned about the rings rule at Tropicana Field. Any other quirky ground rules you might know?

2:01	Kevin Goldstein: Most domes have weird stuff. Minute Maid has stuff with the rafters then honestly I never quite got.

2:02	Ben Clemens: There are a lot of line rules that don’t make perfect sense

2:02	Ben Clemens: Left of this yellow line is a homer, right of it is in play, that kinda thing

2:02	Ben Clemens: Not nearly as quirky as the Trop though

2:02	Ben Clemens: Camden has those strange notches in the outfield corners, but that’s less strange ground rule and more strange layout

2:03	Kevin Goldstein: You guys all know this, but this game is really going to come down to which version of Rodon (velocity) and which version of McCullers (command) we get.

2:03	Ben Clemens: (actually they m ay have since taken those out)

2:03	Ben Clemens: Yeah

2:03	Ben Clemens: Rodon’s velocity is SCARY

2:03	Ben Clemens: as Dan pointed out today:

2:03	Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-rodon-the-right-game-4-decision/

2:04	Bosox: If you are the red sox, would you prefer, astros ou chisox?

2:04	Kevin Goldstein: I think you just have to be happy to be there and prepare for either. I don’t think the needle of expected victory moves much in a short series.

2:04	Carlos Correa: I like Deep Dish Pizza. Would Jerry Reinsdorf ever pay me?

2:04	Kevin Goldstein: He might, but I wouldn’t.

2:04	Kevin Goldstein: I mean, I would pay the real Carlos, but certainly not someone who likes deep dish pizza.

2:05	Kevin Goldstein: Obviously not a good fit for a team that already has an absolutely wonderful player at SS.

2:05	darkness88: How many innings does Rodon go today, and ehere is his velocity?

2:05	Ben Clemens: I think he’ll last one inning too long… and that that will be four innings

2:06	Kevin Goldstein: How many innings with Rodon go today? less than 1 (1.2% \| 1 vote) 2 (3.7% \| 3 votes) 3 (17.5% \| 14 votes) 4 (31.2% \| 25 votes) 5 (35.0% \| 28 votes) 6 (2.5% \| 2 votes) 7 (2.5% \| 2 votes) 8 (0% \| 0 votes) 9 (0% \| 0 votes) More than 9 (6.2% \| 5 votes) Total Votes: 80

2:07	sadtrombone: I was just wondering about that. Sure seems like Correa is the best player on the FA market this year. But maybe not for the White Sox.

2:07	Kevin Goldstein: I agree he’s the best player, and still think he’s perfect for the Yankees.

2:07	Carlos Correa: (1) Jesse Rogers on Twitter: “Carlos Correa had deep dish yesterday while relaxing in his room! Says he loves Chicago deep dish. #Journalism” / Twitter

2:07	Ben Clemens: Shocking lapse in judgment

2:07	Ben Clemens: Tom Verducci making it seem like not knowing whether Carlos Rodon will be down 8 ticks is a tough thing for hte Astros

2:07	Ben Clemens: I mean….

2:08	ralph: Do you consider Detroit-style pizza to be deep dish pizza?

2:08	Kevin Goldstein: I do not, and I actually really like Detroit pizza.

2:08	Ben Clemens: “I might be facing Jake deGrom or Jake Arrieta. The uncertainty here is the problem.”

2:08	Ben Clemens: Detroit pizza has gotten very popular in SF of late

2:08	richwp01: White Sox Shopping List for next year: 2B, RF, and Pitching….Best way to address it?

2:08	Kevin Goldstein: How great would Marcus Semien be?

2:08	Ben Clemens: I think it is what deep dish pizza aspires to be

2:09	Kevin Goldstein: Quick start. Rodon’s first FB is 93….

2:09	Ben Clemens: Gratuitous Brady Aiken dig there by the announcers

2:10	Ben Clemens: You have to love that Alex Cintron told Verducci “our hitters are going to take take take”

2:10	Kevin Goldstein: 108 mph off the bat on that Altuve double.

2:10	Ben Clemens: Shows how valuable those interviews are

2:10	Mitch: With the season on the line would you turn to Hendriks to get you out of a jam in lets say the 4th inning today? Gotta make sure he’s in the game before its out of reach right?

2:10	Ben Clemens: I would

2:10	Kevin Goldstein: I think it would take a remarkable situation to see him before the seventh.

2:10	Ben Clemens: I don’t think Tony will

2:11	Ben Clemens: Hendriks seems like he would be very up for it, which makes it an easier call

2:12	Kevin Goldstein: Whoa. 97 mph FB to Bregman…..

2:12	Ben Clemens: Wow

2:12	Ben Clemens: I love that he’s screaming to the dugout about it lol

2:12	Ben Clemens: Think he was worried about whether he had his good stuff?

2:12	Kevin Goldstein: WHOA. 99 mph!

2:13	Geebs: Will a player take less not to play in Toronto? (not because T.O. is bad but just the logistics of playing out of the U.S.)

2:13	Kevin Goldstein: They’ll take less because of the taxes.

2:13	Kevin Goldstein: This game just got very interesting.

2:13	Kevin Goldstein: I mean, it already was! MORE interesting.

2:13	Ben Clemens: Guess he’s back!

2:13	Geebs: I would consider taxes logistics in this instance

2:14	Ben Clemens: Good thing you aren’t an accountant

2:15	Kevin Goldstein: Then yes. Taxes an be huge when you are talking baseball money. When I was with Houston, if a player had a $10m offer from a team in California, Hoston could offer $9m and be right there because no state taxes in Texas (Florida too).

2:15	richwp01: Do the teams calculate some of the taxes when making offers? White Sox made biggest offer to Wheeler, but I heard taxes made it moot. (Baseball taxes are weird, based on home and away games…)

2:15	Kevin Goldstein: Yes. Taxes are always considered.

2:15	Ben Clemens: Look at the Dodgers’ weirdo deal with Mookie Betts as an example

2:16	Ben Clemens: They structured it with some interesting bonuses and deferrals so that he could receive a big chunk of his money in his state of residence, Tennessee

2:16	Ben Clemens: (no state income tax, go vols)

2:16	Kevin Goldstein: That might be the most exciting top of an inning int he playoffs so far.

2:17	Geebs: I’ve been told but never been able to verify – are Blue Jays contracts in CND dollars? If that’s the case that has to be a consideration

2:17	Ben Clemens: This might be in my area of expertise for once

2:18	Ben Clemens: The reported salaries are converted

2:18	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, you are working in Canada, so you get paid in Canadian money. Offers are made in $USD so there’s no confusion.

2:18	Ben Clemens: And for numbers that big, the logistics of switching between currencies are seamless

2:18	Ben Clemens: If you are getting $10mm CAD but you don’t want CAD, your private wealth banker will just set up an auto conversion

2:18	Ben Clemens: (players with contracts like that have people that do this)

2:19	Kevin Goldstein: Taxes for baseball players are kind of amazing. Real pain in the ass as they have to file in every state they play in.

2:19	Andy: It would be very hard to hit Jake Arrieta, if both he and DeGrom were standing on the mound and you didn’t know which one had the ball.

2:19	Ben Clemens: This brings up an interesting question: how bad of pitchers could you put on the mound two at once

2:19	Ben Clemens: And get away with it

2:20	Ben Clemens: Like, could you do Arrieta and current CC Sabathia?

2:20	Kevin Goldstein: My question is CAN you do that? Does the rule say only one player can toe the rubber?

2:21	Harder Karl: 99 mph from Los… Astros are not touching him so long as that heat is coming in, nobody can

2:21	Kevin Goldstein: 99 is scary, but no team hits velo better than Houston.

2:21	Cob: In regards to who the Red Sox would rather face, I think they care more about this going to a game 5 than who specifically they play. Gives opponent one day between games, and gives them a chance to steal a game or two as the away team

2:21	Ben Clemens: For sure, this is a good point

2:21	Ben Clemens: You’d definitely prefer to burn Valdez and one of Giolito or Lynn

2:21	Kevin Goldstein: For sure.

2:22	Kevin Goldstein: I’m sure they are rooting for Chicago today.

2:22	Kevin Goldstein: I would think that emotionally, Core would like to take on Houston, but that’s pure emotion.

2:22	Kevin Goldstein: Cora

2:22	jj: it would be a balk if you had your foot on the rubber and faked a pitch. so there is that

2:22	Kevin Goldstein: Ah yes. My dream is dead.

2:23	Ben Clemens: Was that a bad play by Bregman? Not something I was thinking in real time but on the replay it looked like he had a play at second

2:23	Kevin Goldstein: It’s a least debatable.

2:24	Kevin Goldstein: Great stuff from AJ here on the White Sox spitting on breakers.

2:25	Ben Clemens: This booth has been the best of the playoffs so far, even if AJ is sometimes too take-happy

2:26	Ben Clemens: Listening to Wainwright think through an at-bat is fun

2:27	Kevin Goldstein: Breaker, breaker, breaker to Grandal….

2:27	Kevin Goldstein: and breaker to end it.

2:27	Ben Clemens: Yeah it’s funny, they were talking about redoing the breaking ball heavy approach based on early returns on the batters

2:27	Kevin Goldstein: With Kyle Tucker due, quick story.

2:27	Ben Clemens: And uh…. that did not happen

2:29	Kevin Goldstein: I saw Kyle Tucker during his high school career at Plant High School in Tampa. They play at Wade Boggs Field. Once on back-to-back-to-back nights in Northern Florida, I saw high school games at Wade Boggs Field, Jose Fernandez field and Francisco Lindor field.

2:31	Kevin Goldstein: Players in each team’s lineup I saw prior to them becoming pros: Astros 3 (Bregman, Gurriel, Tucker); White Sox 4 (Robert, Abreu, Jiménez, Rodon).

2:32	Ben Clemens: I’m very curious to see what happens with Rodon’s velocity

2:32	Kevin Goldstein: For sure.

2:32	Ben Clemens: When he was right early in the year, he would gain as the game went on

2:32	Ben Clemens: Start 93, pick it up to 98 by the 5th

2:32	Ben Clemens: is he going to pick it up from here?

2:32	Ben Clemens: or was that just a quick burst of adrenaline and we’re heading downhill?

2:33	Kevin Goldstein: Note Gurriel hitting: SUPER coiled. You can read the number and the entire name from the CF camera. So many Cubans do it and they do it because they were copying Gurriel.

2:33	Kevin Goldstein: I came to calling it a “Cuban Swing” in scouting reports.

2:33	Ben Clemens: Not a wonderful sign that he’s back to 93 already (wonderful for the Sox I mean)

2:33	Kevin Goldstein: Alexei Ramirez might have been the first big leaguer I saw doing it.

2:33	Moose_Bolton: What is the highest number of curveballs Lance McCullers will throw in a row in this game? Will he break double digits?

2:34	Ben Clemens: If you don’t count sliders, like 3?

2:34	Ben Clemens: He’s just not really an all-curve guy anymore

2:34	josh: What causes McCullers’ command issues? Strom is a magician, and astros are known for pitching development. Is it mechanics? Stuff just has too much movement?

2:34	Kevin Goldstein: Yes, usually it’s an inability to harness the breakers because of all the movement, but at times the FB command gets a little wonky.

2:35	N. Hornblower: Kevin – Are you going to tell your Yuli story you’ve alluded to?

2:35	Kevin Goldstein: Which one?

2:35	Moose_Bolton: According to the MLB.com play by play thing he threw 4 in a row to Grandal so the streak starts there I guess. But they could be wrong about that. I can’t watch the actual game right now so I could be wrong too.

2:35	Ben Clemens: I actually hadn’t looked at the classification. I have a tough time telling his two breaking balls apart at times

2:35	Ben Clemens: Okay so it’s 4!

2:35	Justin: Am I crazy to think Kyle Tucker will win an MVP in his career?

2:35	Kevin Goldstein: You are not crazy at all.

2:37	Kevin Goldstein: I mean I saw him in a private workout before Houston signing him. Lourdes Jr. was there too. So was Livan Hernandez and Rey Ordoñez. Maybe I’ll tell it one day, and man did I get Lourdes wrong.

2:37	Ben Clemens: Love the dude in the stands in a full skeleton costume

2:37	Kevin Goldstein: Rodon got away with a bad location to Tucker there.

2:38	Kevin Goldstein: Hmmmm, This Katz visit feels peculiar…..

2:38	Ben Clemens: Is this an injury thing?

2:38	Ben Clemens: I don’t get the timing

2:38	Kevin Goldstein: No trainer…..

2:39	Ben Clemens: True. Yeah it’s hard to understand

2:40	Nate: Speaking of Tucker…do you think he could be a potential extension candidate in Houston at some point? Or do you think he goes year to year till FA?

2:40	Kevin Goldstein: I think he’d be open to it. Sometimes players really want extensions, some players really want to be FAs.

2:40	richwp01: Good meeting

2:40	Guest: Ben and Kevin and chat! Hello from 35th and Shields! Go Sox!

2:40	Ben Clemens: “I suggest getting Meyers out on one pitch.”

2:40	Kevin Goldstein: Watch the game!

2:42	Ryan: I’ve enjoyed Wainwright in the booth. Is this a test run for a future broadcasting career, or is he just having a good time?

2:42	Kevin Goldstein: Often players and management with time on their hands do this kind of thing in an attempt to figure that thing our for themselves. I agree he’s good.

2:43	Derek: Major leaguers: just like us. Sitting through meetings that were called for no reason!

2:43	Kevin Goldstein: Include front offices in that. Man did we have some unnecessary meetings.

2:43	Ben Clemens: Only thing missing was Rodon repeatedly refreshing his fantasy football app to see if there are any injury updates

2:43	Kevin Goldstein: Carlos Rodon apple season.

2:44	Kevin Goldstein: Oh no, I hope Jake Meyers is ok…..

2:45	Kevin Goldstein: Also, what a blast.

2:45	Ben Clemens: Oof, that did not look good

2:46	Kevin Goldstein: That’s Jerimiah Randall out there looking at Jake. He’s very good at his job, and also a really good person.

2:46	Kevin Goldstein: 106/23 on the Sheets blast.

2:46	BringBackDeSpanielHair: Ugh, that sure looks like a collarbone

2:47	Ben Clemens: As someone who has broken a collarbone, I’m impressed that he’s standing if so

2:47	Kevin Goldstein: Left wrist?

2:48	Kevin Goldstein: Oh wait, he’s staying?

2:48	Ben Clemens: Wow is he staying in???

2:48	Ben Clemens: So, broken collarbone is out lol

2:48	Kevin Goldstein: Trying to stay in was a very Jake thing.

2:50	richwp01: Correa being a leader talking to him. Dusty making “hard” call.

2:50	Ben Clemens: I think you have to take him out here

2:50	Kevin Goldstein: For sure.

2:50	Ben Clemens: Given that you are essentially running a platoon anyway

2:50	Ben Clemens: If it’s Mike Trout and your backup is Dexter Fowler or something, maybe you reconsider

2:51	Kevin: Can’t let a centerfielder stay in if his throwing arm causes pain.

2:51	Ben Clemens: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/2015-09-10-the-st-louis-cardinals-started-a-…

2:51	Ben Clemens: “The Redbirds had an interesting workaround for the problem on Wednesday against the Chicago Cubs. After Anthony Rizzo doubled, Grichuk scooped up the ball and tossed it to right fielder Jason Heyward to relay into the infield. The extra time allowed a runner to score from first.”

2:51	Kevin Goldstein: Oh crap, I remember that.

2:52	Ben Clemens: I contend that that’s the day Heyward decided he wasn’t staying in St. Louis

2:52	jj: I think Wainwright would be good at just about anything he understands. He seems to have the right amount of confidence vs cockiness to be able to listen and learn when he doesn’t know.

2:53	Kevin Goldstein: News from the West Coast: Walker Beuhler will start game 4 tonight.

2:53	Ben Clemens: Maybe it’s just my inner Cards fan talking but I’m with you, jj

2:53	Ben Clemens: Buehler/Gonsolin piggyback with Urias in G5, I think that’s a wise decision

2:53	Kevin Goldstein: Good job by Wainwright to point out the makeup call on strike 2 there. He missed the previous one, so Lance was getting the next close one.

2:55	Guest: I feel like white Sox lack a guy who can shove at the top of their rotation. Lance Lynn and Lucas don’t particular seem like the type of guy who strikes fear in opponents. Maybe they do. Would you trade from strength or look in free agency.

2:55	Ben Clemens: 2020 Giolito might have

2:55	Ben Clemens: Er, I think he did

2:56	jimmy: what the dropoff (if any) defensively from meyers to mccormack? offensively?

2:56	Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he’s a lock to get back to that form but he’s definitely capable of it

2:56	Kevin Goldstein: The two are similar offensively. It’s certainly a defensive drop off. Chas is a 45-50 CF, Jake is a 60+

2:57	Ben Clemens: MLB really staying with the times by playing Joe Budden going into commercial

2:59	Kevin: I miss Jake Marisnick.

2:59	Kevin Goldstein: Hard not too. He’s a great defender.

3:00	marlins man: Katz’ weirdly timed visit was absolutely about the Astros having the signs— from Correa or illicitly

3:00	Kevin Goldstein: I think more likely he was tipping something, not that the Astros haven’t earned that kind of scrutiny.

3:01	Kevin: Marisnick wasn’t the best at the plate but he got so many timely hits and had pop. I wish they found a way to keep him.

3:01	Kevin Goldstein: I mean, they traded him to the Mets. That was the only major league trade I negotiated from first call through completion for you trivia buffs.

3:01	Ben Clemens: That was the case a while ago. I do not think that Marisnick is that guy anymore

3:02	Ben Clemens: Not that he’s a bad defender or anything, but I don’t think peak Marisnick is coming back

3:03	Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: After the sign-stealing scandal, I feel like people have forgotten about good old-fashioned pitch tipping!

3:03	Ben Clemens: Indeed

3:03	kyle: KG, any insight into the Marwin pickup? Was it as simple as players like him + more seasoned than the Robel Garcia-type guys they were running out

3:03	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, obviously didn’t cost them anything and they needed some depth. Nothing complicated there.

3:04	Kevin: Ha cool to know that I’m talking to the guy who made the trade. How is Corona coming along?

3:04	Kevin Goldstein: Had a rough full-season debut. Still more tools than player…..

3:04	Cob: This game has La Russa leaving Rodon in too long because “he’s dealing” all over it

3:05	Ben Clemens: I can’t really disagree here

3:05	Kevin: Classy White Sox fans cheering a HBP.

3:05	Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s silly to act like that wouldn’t get cheered in 29 stadiums.

3:05	Guest: You got Blake Taylor?! I really liked that pickup and think he’s been a great MR pickup for the Astros. I don’t know much about Corona…care the share any reasoning why you asked for him?

3:05	Kevin Goldstein: He had some interesting underlying metrics and I always tried to get a sweetener into deals.

3:06	ayeff: 4d chess: Rodon is varying his velo by +/-8mph as a kind of chaotic changeup

3:07	Ben Clemens: Interestingly, despite a pretty wide velo range, his control of it seems fine

3:07	Ben Clemens: I know the broadcast was just saying he was trying to get one low to Altuve, but that’s not really Rodon’s game

3:07	Ben Clemens: He’s been mostly upper third, and when they’ve leaked they’ve leaked low by a touch

3:08	Pale Hose Time: Does Rodon probably need TJ? Isn’t that usually the cause when a pitcher has a huge velocity drop?

3:08	Kevin Goldstein: Quite an assumption. I think he’s just gassed.

3:09	Ben Clemens: He pitched 7.2 innings in 2020

3:09	Ben Clemens: and 34.2 in 2019

3:09	Ben Clemens: My first guess is just that he isn’t used to throwing this many innings, particularly with this type of effort

3:10	jj: Fangraphs should add a ‘Transactions’ section to each player like BBRef has, so I dont have to go there to remind myself who the other guy in the Marisnick trade was.

3:10	Ben Clemens: I…. don’t disagree with this

3:10	Kevin Goldstein: Do you want the strike zone superimposed on the screen? I do! (58.4% \| 52 votes) I do not! (41.5% \| 37 votes) Total Votes: 89

3:11	Ben Clemens: I’m anti-zone, my wife is strongly pro-zone

3:11	Kevin Goldstein: I am also anti-zone. My wife could absolutely not care any less.

3:12	Ben Clemens: Haha, we have this discussion every time the broadcast loses the zone, which is why that came to mind

3:12	jj: I think it’s fair to ask why 28 year old isn’t in shape enough to throw more than 45 innings after the break though right?

3:12	Kevin Goldstein: Not really. Most players are gassed, but one not used to a full season will be even more so.

3:12	Kevin Goldstein: The physical toll of 162 in about 180 days is really enormous.

3:13	Ben Clemens: lol at Wainwright’s belief in what’s a strike

3:13	Pale Hose Time: Would MLB ever consider going to 140 or 150 games or do they care about money too much?

3:14	Kevin Goldstein: I mean, you are taking away 6 or 11 home gates there, so yeah, that’s the answer to your question.

3:14	Ben Clemens: Care about money too much

3:14	Ben Clemens: Not close to being any other answer

3:14	Kevin Goldstein: That was clearly a pitch around to go L on L to Yordan.

3:15	Kevin Goldstein: Tony on the bullpen phone!

3:15	Ben Clemens: Omg Pierzynski with a cogent argument against the dumb platoon splits Amin quoted

3:15	Ben Clemens: My new broadcasting hero

3:15	segiddins: Hearing a broadcast booth explain selection bias is… incredibly refreshing

3:15	Jules: How should Cash have handled his pitchers yesterday? I thought McHugh had a bit left in the tank and then could have turned it over to Kittredge for about 6 outs and mix and match from there. Just not sold on the thought process to go to McClanahan early like that.

3:15	Pale Hose Time: A.J. should write for Fangraphs

3:15	Kevin Goldstein: I think the process was fine, but there is extra risk in their process.. The results were not.

3:15	Ben Clemens: I disagreed with one specific part of the process

3:16	Kevin Goldstein: What was that?

3:16	Ben Clemens: I’d have used McHugh to start the third given how his pitch count was

3:16	Kevin Goldstein: ah, I get that.

3:16	Ben Clemens: Gone to an MR for the top of the order (clearly Cash didn’t want to let McHugh face them)

3:16	Ben Clemens: Then bring in McClanahan to start the 4th

3:16	jj: Yordan is just as good vs LHP as he is RHP isn’t he?

3:16	Kevin Goldstein: He’s still a VERY tough out.

3:16	Ben Clemens: Might not have mattered much but I thought it was bad process

3:16	Kevin Goldstein: This Kopech getting warm might be a bluff.

3:17	Kevin: I also miss McHugh.

3:17	Kevin Goldstein: He’ll be on an episode of the podcast, and soon.

3:17	Ben Clemens: McHugh made 37 apperances this year and faced 10+ batters only 4 times, so it’s not weird to not let him do it

3:18	Ben Clemens: Just…. I don’t know why you wouldn’t get a few more outs out of him, he looked sharp and wasn’t gassed

3:19	Kevin Goldstein: The Astros have the bases loaded with two outs for Carlos Correa, what will happen? K (12.5% \| 8 votes) BB (0% \| 0 votes) 1B (12.5% \| 8 votes) 2B (34.3% \| 22 votes) 3B (0% \| 0 votes) HR (1.5% \| 1 vote) In play, out (35.9% \| 23 votes) HBP (3.1% \| 2 votes) Total Votes: 64

3:19	Cob: Would you leave Rodon in here?

3:20	Ben Clemens: I would not, but I’m a coward

3:20	Kevin Goldstein: I would, but I’m a little aggressive and times in these matters

3:20	Ben Clemens: I think it’s reallllly close either way

3:20	Ben Clemens: Don’t hate either decision

3:20	Ben Clemens: Nothing in the way he’s pitched so far indicates he doesn’t have it

3:21	Ben Clemens: Dangit, my HBP vote didn’t prove true

3:21	Kevin Goldstein: Carlos Correa is going to make a tremendous amount of money.

3:21	Kevin Goldstein: Also, I voted double, and I’m going to go buy a lottery ticket.

3:21	Ben Clemens: Inside FanGraphs talk: he’s number one on my draft top 50 free agent list

3:21	Ben Clemens: If I could write him in pen, I would

3:21	Kevin Goldstein: SPOILER

3:23	Cob: Okay, now do you have Kopech face Tucker or load the bases for McCormick?

3:23	Ben Clemens: Yeesh. load the bases for McCormick for me

3:24	Issam: Yuli first no?

3:24	Ben Clemens: Yep, nevermind

3:24	Ben Clemens: Easy pitch to Yuli then

3:24	Ben Clemens: I just want no part of Tucker with the platoon advantage

3:24	BringBackDeSpanielHair: That was a really impressive swing from Correa.

3:24	Jordan: Did Springer really want to leave the Astros? if so, any insights?

3:24	Ben Clemens: Absolutely!

3:24	Ben Clemens: (to the swing)

3:25	Ben Clemens: great pitch by Rodon honestly

3:25	Ben Clemens: Sometimes you just get beat

3:25	Kevin Goldstein: I think George was open to staying but did want to get to FA, and that’s what happened.

3:26	Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: Kopech’s gotta be at like 25 pitches max, right? He just threw 47 two days ago

3:26	Ben Clemens: Yeah, definitely short leash

3:26	Kevin Goldstein: I think he might be just on “get us to a clean inning” duty.

3:27	Kevin Goldstein: He’s out.

3:28	mybloodyballantine: Has an umpire ever accidentally punched a player with an over enthusiastic out call?

3:28	Ben Clemens: hahaha I mean no but I laughed at this question so I had to throw it in the chat

3:28	Kevin Goldstein: Yuli still gets down the line pretty well for a 37 year old. Easy to forget he was a twitchy shortstop in his 20s.

3:29	jj: Correa knew a high fastball was coming 3 in a row similar location and speed.

3:29	Ben Clemens: But perhaps Rodon knew that Correa knew, so clearly he couldn’t throw a high fastball

3:29	Kevin Goldstein: But maybe Correa knew that Rodon knew that Correa know, and therefore . . . .

3:29	Ben Clemens: it’s easy to say that in retrospect but it’s not like every time Rodon throws two fastballs in a row he throws a third

3:30	Ben Clemens: Mike Trout poisons both cups, is the moral of the story here

3:30	Kevin: Astros are seeing the ball well, they’ll get more runs. Question is how well can Lance hold and how long he can go.

3:30	Kevin Goldstein: It’s a huge question. Astros bullpen should still make them nervous.

3:30	kyle: Yuli 26.9 sprint speed (27 is league avg)

3:30	Kevin Goldstein: See! Pretty good!

3:31	Guest: one of the three classic blunders

3:31	jj: I’m not even started yet

3:32	segiddins: Never go against a Hall of Famer when your season is on the line! (to continue Ben’s thread)

3:32	Ben Clemens: Love this chat

3:32	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, it’s such a cliché, but one I believe and one I think about with the Rays out. Superstars win in the playoffs. Maybe I’m insane. Never measured it or anything.

3:32	tz: Hanley Ramirez was also a twitchy SS in his 20’s, and is also 37 now.

3:32	Kevin Goldstein: Yuli a better pure hitter.

3:33	Finnegan’s SSW: Should fielders generally throw the ball less? (“eat it” more)

3:33	Ben Clemens: First, incredible name

3:34	Ben Clemens: Second, I don’t think so. There are way more bang-bang plays you win than late throws that go awry, and I don’t see ALL that many throws that have no chance whatsoever

3:35	Bill: Who is the best pure hitter (the hit tool, I guess) in the majors right now?

3:35	Kevin Goldstein: Soto? Fun argument. There’s no obvious 80 like Gwynn or Ichiro right now.

3:36	Ben Clemens: Soto is weird b/c it’s hard to disentangle his hit tool from his eye

3:36	Ben Clemens: Wander maybe?

3:37	BringBackDeSpanielHair: Shouldn’t a hitter’s discernment be counted as part of his hit tool?

3:37	Kevin Goldstein: Turner and Brantley up there.

3:37	Ben Clemens: Kevin, I’ll defer to you on this one

3:37	Ben Clemens: I never know how to separate eye from hit tool

3:38	Kevin Goldstein: They’re separate. Swing decisions and hitting ability are two different things.

3:38	darkness88: Should runners hustle down the line on plays where they’re most likely out more to pressure the defense?

3:38	Kevin Goldstein: Depends on the situation really.

3:39	Kevin Goldstein: News from Atlanta: Jorge Soler has tested positive for COVID-19. Christian Pache taking his place on the roster.

3:39	Kyle Kishimoto: yuli still puts up 40 grade run times, which according to savant is 2nd among 37 year olds

3:39	Kevin Goldstein: Wait, you buried the lede. Who’s first?

3:40	nat: if the hit tool is a separate skill from the eye tool, then why don’t scouts report on an eye tool? Seems like the standard scale is missing part of the picture. If we’re limited to five tools, maybe replace arm with eye. Or just keep subdividing.

3:40	Kevin Goldstein: The five tools is still standard, but most teams are grading way more than five tools.

3:40	Ben Clemens: Jorge Soler reportedly out for today’s game

3:41	Ben Clemens: More on that as I hear a little more but oof

3:41	Jordan: I like that Tucker doesn’t wear gloves, I don’t know why but I like that

3:41	Kevin Goldstein: About a decade ago at some college game . . . Scout: That guy doesn’t wear batting gloves, you know what that means? Me: What? Scout: That means he can hit.

3:42	Kyle Kishimoto: oh it’s jarrod dyson lol

3:42	Kevin Goldstein: That makes excellent sense.

3:42	Kevin Goldstein: Second time Yasmani couldn’t make a throw on a SB attempt.

3:42	Ben Clemens: Two steals by the Astros, zero throws by Grandal

3:42	Kevin Goldstein: Jinx

3:43	Ben Clemens: Oof, you timestamped me

3:43	Derek: I don’t think Jarrod Dyson is 37. I’m fairly certain he’s just like, 31 in perpetuity

3:43	Kevin Goldstein: THREE with no throw.

3:43	Kevin Goldstein: Not that THAT one ever merited a throw.

3:43	Ryan: If you are trying to determine who the “best pure hitter” in the league is, what are the 3 first stats/metrics you look at?

3:43	Ben Clemens: Oh, this is a good question

3:43	Ben Clemens: I think one I’d really care about is launch angle tightness

3:44	Kevin Goldstein: Contact rate, some kind of hard hit ball rate . . .

3:44	Ben Clemens: Hard hit rate, contact rate, and launch angle tightness for me

3:44	Guest: Grandal’s in good shape on a steal of home, though. He doesn’t have to throw to get the runner.

3:44	Kevin Goldstein: Now you’re thinking.

3:44	Ben Clemens: I dunno if you wanna do stdev or something, but if you’re repeating the same type of contact a lot, that’s a really good sign

3:44	Derek: Are you Juan Soto some other stuff some other stuff

3:44	Kevin Goldstein: I laughed.

3:45	BringBackDeSpanielHair: Kyle Tucker aside, Kopech looked really good whenever I saw him this year. Is he going to get another chance to start?

3:45	Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say an unequivocal yes

3:45	Ben Clemens: I think you have to give a guy like that every chance to stick as a starter

3:46	Kevin Goldstein: Gotta let Maldy hit here. Defense is too important still.

3:46	Ben Clemens: Do you squeeze?

3:46	Ben Clemens: Big run

3:46	Kevin Goldstein: I bet that they try it, but then Maldonado tries to do it on a high fastball and then fouls it off.

3:47	Mick: Glad to make it here for a chat, are there gonna be chats for the other games today?

3:47	Kevin Goldstein: Just this one.

3:47	Ben Clemens: We had a critical shortage of available chatters, and I’ll be honest, I’m a little gassed after a stream and recap yesterday

3:47	Ben Clemens: Feeling very Kopech-y this morning

3:48	Kevin Goldstein: I’m sleep deprived with a new puppy in the house…

3:48	Mick: Understandable, appreciate you guys being here

3:48	Kevin Goldstein: We appreciate you folks being here. We have a blast with these.

3:48	Ben Clemens: New puppy!

3:48	Kevin Goldstein: NEW PUPPY.

3:48	Ben Clemens: Definitely don’t bunt

3:49	Ben Clemens: I’ll hold back on the new puppy questions given that this game is quite good

3:49	Ben Clemens: But I’m thinking them

3:49	Andrew: what a time for his first hit this postseason

3:49	Kevin Goldstein: Just my chance to say I love Martin Maldonado.

3:50	Jordan: Is Dusty Baker really the arm killer some fans/talking heads make him out to be?

3:50	Kevin Goldstein: Not anymore.

3:51	Ben Clemens: Yeah

3:51	Bill: So I ran the numbers for components of what I thought would be “hit tool” – low called strike rate, low swinging strike rate, and difference between o-swing and z-swing. For 2021, the winner by combined z-score is Kyle Tucker, followed closely by Freddie Freeman.

3:51	Kevin Goldstein: Pans out……

3:51	Ben Clemens: Blow up Mark Prior like that, and people will remember it for a long time

3:51	Big Hairy Clock: Any relation to Candy Maldonado? Fairy common last name

3:51	Kevin Goldstein: No.

3:51	Jay: any fun stories about martin? do the pitchers love him as much as it seems?

3:51	Kevin Goldstein: More, actually.

3:51	Guest: Is someone banging on a trashcan? Houston hitters sure seem in synch.

3:52	Ben Clemens: Breaking news: the Astros have the best offense in baseball

3:52	Ben Clemens: They sure seem in sync, like, almost all the time

3:53	Ben Clemens: What’s the signal for ‘middle-middle fastball with not much movement’?

3:53	Kevin Goldstein: Here’s President Pierce in rare moment of not being an energetic idiot.

3:54	kyle: Any thoughts on Hank Conger, KG? Loved him when he was in Houston

3:54	Kevin Goldstein: He’s a great dude, but developed a throwing problem that made him unplayable at catcher.

3:54	Ben Clemens: I’m tremendously disappointed that I can’t put any emoji reactions on that picture

3:55	Kevin Goldstein: NASTY sequence to Brantley

3:55	Ben Clemens: Crochet must be an INCREDIBLY uncomfortable at-bat for a lefty

3:55	Ben Clemens: wow we’re even capitalizing in sync now

3:55	Finnegan’s SSW: From his brief time in Chicago this year, Robinson Chirinos seems like a great guy too

3:55	Kevin Goldstein: He’s PHENOMENAL

3:56

Daniel: Did Crochet never have a chance to start? Straight to the majors and staying so far is a nice oddity, but was it not worthwhile to at least try to turn him into a starter for a couple years in the minors? Especially from the 11th overall pick? Is it better to let him stay in this role as a strong reliever? Do you think they’ll try him a starter eventually? Ok, enough questions. He’s nasty regardless

3:56	Kevin Goldstein: I’d leave him in the pen. If it’s not broke . . .

3:56	Big Hairy Clock: Are we sure Houston’s offense is better than LAD? Removing pitcher from the equation of course

3:56	Ben Clemens: Depends if you mean true talent or actual results

3:57	Ben Clemens: Actual results, yep. Here’s the non-pitcher leaderboard this year

3:57	Kevin: Ha! One of my friends is a direct descendant of President Pierce

3:57	Ben Clemens: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&…

3:57	Kevin Goldstein: We can him Frankie. President Pierce is an homage to the Jack Russell terrier in Buster Scruggs.

3:57	Ben Clemens: Expected results, it’s really close

3:57	Ben Clemens: No wrong answers

3:57	Kevin Goldstein: 3-0 green light. I love to see it.

3:58	Kevin Goldstein: That’s a very quiet stadium all of a sudden.

3:59	JC: Who matches up better with Boston? I would lean Houston just cause they have an elite offense with an interesting rotation, but not sure about their bullpen as much

3:59	Ben Clemens: I’d say Houston b/c I think Houston is a better team

4:00	Jeffrey: Speaking of Maldy’s prowess behind the plate –Has anyone tried to quantify the positive/negative effect of a catcher on his pitcher’s core stats (e.g., FIP)? Presumably this would include the obvious (framing) in addition to the more intangibles (pitch sequencing, arm strength, etc)

4:00	Kevin Goldstein: There’s a lot of unmeasurable stuff, ineffable really, in terms of game management, sequencing, working with pitchers. Can’t put a number on it, but it’s there…

4:01	barney gumble: chisox pitching has really pooped the bed this series. I think it’s tough to blame LaRussa for that, at a certain point guys have to perform

4:01	Ben Clemens: I agree with this. TLR is not the difference in this series, the Astros mashing EVERYTHING is

4:01	Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely. And performing against Houston is really hard.

4:01	Al Gone Quinn: Any thoughts on how the SF-LA series plays out?

4:01	Ben Clemens: Selfishly, I would like it to go 5 but the Giants to win

4:01	Ben Clemens: So that I can go to game 5

4:02	Kevin Goldstein: I believe one of those two teams will win tonight.

4:02	Ben Clemens: And then see a raucous SF crowd

4:02	JC: How long does Buehler go on 3 days rest? Twice thru the order?

4:02	Ben Clemens: If I were a Dodgers fan, this would worry me

4:02	Jordan: If there is one thing that annoyed me most about that sign stealing BS the most is that those Astros were so damn good they didn’t need to and now they will forever be stained

4:02	Kevin Goldstein: Sure, they might not have needed it, but they did do it, and it deserves the stain. They earned it.

4:03	Ben Clemens: Roberts’s Achilles heel is letting pitchers stay in too long

4:03	Ben Clemens: Tony Gonsolin is really good!

4:03	WhoIsZorbist: Does Kiermaier have value? League average bat, greatest CF ever, with every big market team in desperate need of a CF (Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Mets, Braves, Phillies, etc.). $12M seems like nothing to those teams to have a player that can impact playoff games THAT MUCH!

4:03	Kevin Goldstein: He’s a 2+ win player. He has value. I wouldn’t make him target No. 1, but certainly would have interest.

4:05	Ben Clemens: Yeah, he certainly has surplus value but I think the league’s knowledge that the Rays LOVE ditching salary lowers his prospective return

4:05	Ben Clemens: It’s like trading snacks with the kid who hates carrots

4:05	Ben Clemens: Don’t give them fair value

4:05	Al Gone Quinn: Will LA fans be petty and blame the absence of Muncy?

4:05

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, time to share my grand overarching fandom theory. Every team has crappy fans, and the percentage of crappy fans is very close across teams. Some teams have more fans (it’s about the denominator) and therefore more crappy fans. The team you love has crappy fans and the team you hate has plenty of great fans.

4:06	JC: Maybe I’m misremembering but was it Gonsolin who was supposed to go over with Pederson to the LAA but Moreno shot it down?

4:06	Ben Clemens: Stripling

4:06	Kevin: Would the Astros consider moving Bregman to SS and going after a 3B when they lose Correa?

4:06	Kevin Goldstein: I think he’s a below average SS, defensively.

4:07	Kevin Goldstein: McCullers has yet to start a hitter off 1-0…..

4:07	Jay: do you think Pena is the 2022 plan for SS WHEN the Astros likely walk away from the Correa sweepstakes?

4:07	Kevin Goldstein: I do, and it probably should be.

4:08	Bubba: Kevin on a scale from Carlos Gomez to David Eckstein how much of a gamer is McCullers

4:08	Kevin Goldstein: He’s very intense.

4:09	Kevin Goldstein: Have a day Gavin Sheets.

4:10	darkness88: McCullers’s stuff shocks me every time.

4:10	Ben Clemens: Same

4:10	Kevin Goldstein: Why?

4:10	Ben Clemens: The curveball just moves way more than I think it should

4:11	Kevin Goldstein: How many baseball games will you watch today? 1 (12.3% \| 9 votes) 2 (17.8% \| 13 votes) 3 (36.9% \| 27 votes) I come to FanGraphs chats but never actually watch baseball. (32.8% \| 24 votes) Total Votes: 73

4:11	Ben Clemens: He generates so much movement on it

4:11	Ben Clemens: More movement than I can wrap my head around given the velo on it

4:13	Kevin: Do you think Bregman could improve at SS? He has less than 1000 IP, maybe he can get better as a full time guy? Or already kinda too old for that kind of improvement?

4:13	Kevin Goldstein: He’s not really the kind of athlete you need at the position. I do think he’s better at 3B than metrics suggest.

4:13	Ben Clemens: Great at-bat by Leury

4:14	barney gumble: seems like the astros do a phenomenal job scouting and developing young talent. safe to say they’ll remain competitive for a long time?

4:14	Kevin Goldstein: I think so, and they have an owner willing to spend money. I will always be hard to match the roster from 2017-2021, but that would be the case for any franchise.

4:15	Ben Clemens: Would you leave McCullers in here?

4:15	Ben Clemens: I definitely would

4:15	Ben Clemens: Would you leave McCullers in here? Yes (89.3% \| 42 votes) No (10.6% \| 5 votes) Total Votes: 47

4:16	JC: I think this is McCullers’ last batter. That seem fair?

4:16	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I agree with that

4:16	Ben Clemens: With a rested bullpen after the off day yday

4:16	Ben Clemens: I would be tempted to give him another inning but I don’t think Dusty will

4:17	Kevin Goldstein: I would do it.

4:17

Ryan: Random story: a high school teammate of mine caught at Miami in college, but moved to 1B/DH primarily when Yasmani Grandal showed up. He was later drafted by the Padres (as a catcher), had a relatively successful minor league career (multiple stints at AAA with some success as 1B/C combo), but at the time the Padres catcher was…Yasmani Grandal. I’m sure there’s a lot more to the story, but I always found it interesting.

4:17	Kevin Goldstein: Say hi to Jason Hagerty for me.

4:17	Ben Clemens: Okay, gonna make some lunch really quickly

4:17	P: Kevin, I’m not sure the years you were there exactly, but did you think McCullers or Velazquez had better stuff? On a similar note, regardless of your answer, what aspects of pitching do you think allow pitchers with lesser stuff to be more successful pitchers (for both of you)?

4:17	Kevin Goldstein: Lance had better stuff, but I did also think VV would have a better career…..

4:19	WhoIsZorbist: I remember when baseball tried to jam Pierzynski and Eric Byrnes as the next “it” baseball color commentators. I’m glad Pierzynski stuck and Byrnes didn’t. I dislike AJ, but he’s really good at offering insight. Byrnes was just a Dudebro, and I’m glad I don’t have to hear from him.

4:19	Kevin Goldstein: What the hell happened to Byrnes? He seemed to have just vanished. Did he do something bad I forget about?

4:19	jj: I say McCullers comes out for Anderson and stays in until more batters have reached base than he has outs.

4:19	Kevin Goldstein: I think this is a good bet.

4:22	Kevin: I’d like to see at least one hit to see the chirping against Tepera.

4:22	Ben Clemens: Popping back in briefly while the stove heats up to agree with this

4:23	Kevin Goldstein: I’d like the drama. If you’re a Houston fan and what he said upset you, I kind of just shrug. I don’t THINK Houston is up to anything right now, but they’re earned the skepticism and ire and just have to deal with it.

4:24

P: Played against them in Lancaster. Could’ve just been their stuff on those days or at those stages of their careers, but I thought VV had better stuff. Could’ve just been me. Then again, Austin Wood (pitched in the Angels organization) also seemed to have some of the best stuff I ever faced. The fastball at least. If you remember him

4:24	Kevin Goldstein: Austin Wood had a crazy great FB! Also, who are you?

4:24	Andrew: When AJ of all people thinks you ran your mouth, you DEFINITELY ran your mouth

4:26	Doug: Why go Yimi here instead of Urquidy…

4:26	Kevin Goldstein: Fair question. I wonder what the decision would be if it was 5-3….

4:27	Kevin Goldstein: Adam Wainwright recommending the polish dog in Chicago. Clearly has never has the Italian Sausage with the grilled onion from the guy in the concourse right behind home plate

4:28	Kevin Goldstein: Lance McCullers is out of the game after four innings…. I don’t like that at all (37.5% \| 24 votes) I don’t like it, but I get it (45.3% \| 29 votes) Feels right (14.0% \| 9 votes) Absolutely the thing to do. (3.1% \| 2 votes) Total Votes: 64

4:29	Andrew: Oh shit, Kevin – ballpark food recommendations in Houston! Last time I did shake shack because I couldn’t get it elsewhere, but it exists outside the ballpark in Houston now.

4:29	Kevin Goldstein: Torchy’s Tacos behind CF on the upper level.

4:29	Ben Clemens: Is Torchy’s just everywhere in Texas now?

4:29	Ben Clemens: It deserves to be, to be clera

4:30	Kevin Goldstein: It’s around….

4:30	Andrew: They have it in Amarillo, sooo… yes.

4:30	Ben Clemens: lol

4:30	Kevin Goldstein: There’s a pretty dive-y Mexican diner kinda place near the ballpark, but the wrong way from downtown. Bit of sketchy area, but whatever, that stuff never bothers me and the food is really good.

4:31	Ben Clemens: Sorry to my in-laws, but the stadium that most disappoints me food-wise is Miller Park

4:31	Mike: Torchys is no longer in MMP, but we do have a Killens BBQ now. For Houston beer go St Arnold’s

4:31	Kevin Goldstein: See, you don’t go for a couple of years….

4:31	P: I’d rather keep my anonymity on here haha. I’ll search for your e-mail or some other direct contact.

4:31	Ben Clemens: I always expect some epic grilled meats, and it always comes up short

4:31	Kevin Goldstein: email the podcast (only I will see it) chinmusic at fangraphs dot com.

4:32	Ben Clemens: Dusty is really not living up to his arm-eating rep here, that’s for sure

4:32	Randy: Would have let Lance go 1 more inning–or at least start it.

4:32	Kevin Goldstein: yeah, that’s where I am.

4:33	Ben Clemens: I totally get tryin to avoid third time through but if we’re using the steak scale, this is a medium rare pull

4:33	Kevin Goldstein: But I order my steaks medium-rare . . . .

4:33	Ben Clemens: and verging on rare

4:33	Ben Clemens: haha yeah, but the real life steak scale should END at medium

4:34	Kevin Goldstein: Yes, agreed that anyone who goes further than medium is a monster.

4:35	BoofBonser26: I feel like what bums me out about third time stuff is that the lesson was that the default should be to pull guys, not leave them in, and instead managers seem to have learned the lesson as “always pull starters, even when dealing”. It makes me sad

4:35	Ben Clemens: Totally agree with this

4:35	Kevin Goldstein: I find few things in baseball more entertaining than the Tim Anderson battle AB.

4:35	Ben Clemens: Good pitchers are still good the third time through, just not AS good

4:35	Ben Clemens: it seems like the wisdom has been internalized as ‘let no one face the order a third time’

4:35	Kevin Goldstein: We should run a query and find the most 9+ pitch ABs.

4:36	Ben Clemens: he would be up there

4:36	Kevin Goldstein: Nice play.

4:36	Ben Clemens: particularly b/c he doesn’t often walk on them

4:37	Kevin Goldstein: We should run a query to find the most 9+ pitch ABs that do not end in a walk.

4:37	Ben Clemens: I honestly don’t know how to do that, or I would

4:37	Kevin: Yuli stretch!

4:37	Kevin Goldstein: Yuli is an exceptionally underrated defensive 1B. Maybe the best scooper in the business.

4:37	Ben Clemens: Eric Hosmer will fight you

4:37	Ben Clemens: No one loves his scoops more than Hosmer

4:38	josh: I trust Lance a third time through more than any non-Pressly relievers

4:38	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, that’s where I am/was.

4:38	Ben Clemens: I trust 3 guys roughly equally to McCullers 3rd time through

4:39	Ben Clemens: and yeah, Pressly more

4:39	Ryan: Can we run a query for longest PA that didn’t end with a full count?

4:39	Kevin Goldstein: Another fun one…..

4:39	Ben Clemens: Fun fact: Yimi Garcia is not one of those three

4:40	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, I liked some of the Astros bullpen moves in July, but Yimi was not among them. The FB doesn’t play to the velo. I think he’s kind of fool’s gold.

4:40	Ben Clemens: strong agree

4:40	Ben Clemens: I thought they were buying high on Graveman, but I still think he’s good

4:40	Ben Clemens: Garcia, eh

4:41	Kevin: Stanek, Javier, Urquidy?

4:41	Ben Clemens: I had Graveman but not Urquidy (b/c I dunno how they’re using him)

4:41	Kevin Goldstein: Can’t trust Javier right now with the command issues out of the pen.

4:41	Kevin Goldstein: That was an ugly inning for White Sox bats…

4:42	Ben Clemens: Anyway, just like we all thought, Garcia cruises after the long at-bat

4:42	Doug: Ultimately, isn’t it foolish to trust anyone except for yourself?

4:42	Kevin Goldstein: I don’t even do that.

4:42	Ben Clemens: I perhaps trust myself least of all

4:42	Ben Clemens: I’m a very unreliable narrator

4:43	A Rose by any other: Yimi has got to be a top 10 WAR leader for first names though

4:43	Ben Clemens: I always wish it’s short for Yames

4:43	Ben Clemens: It is not

4:44	Kevin: Or Yimothy

4:44	Ben Clemens: This has been a brutal game if you’re a Sox fan there in person

4:44	Ben Clemens: Just, not a lot of daylight at any point

4:45	Kevin Goldstein: Yes, it’s very cloudy today.

4:45	Ben Clemens: heyyyyyyyy

4:45	Kevin Goldstein: I mean, it is.

4:45	Kevin Goldstein: Also too cold for just a t-shirt, my guy.

4:46	Ben Clemens: That’s some classic Midwest hubris

4:46	Ben Clemens: I’ve never seen people dress less appropriately for cold weather than in Wisconsin

4:47	Kevin Goldstein: I’m Midwest through and through, and I still love the dude running around in a hoodie and basketball shorts in the middle of a blizzard.

4:47	Ben Clemens: Chas McCormick is also not the chirper we were hoping for

4:47	Mick: Where do you rank CWS among playoff teams for how bright their future is? I assume they gotta be 1 or 2 with the Rays, but it’s hard to discount some of the constant juggernauts like the Dodgers

4:47	Kevin Goldstein: That’s a fun one.

4:47	Kevin Goldstein: I think discounting the juggernauts is a huge mistake.

4:47	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think you have to just jam Dodgers #1 until further notice

4:48	Kevin Goldstein: After all, they ARE juggernauts.

4:48	Ben Clemens: Pick a team to win the 2023 world series

4:48	Ben Clemens: If I have first pick in that draft it’s Dodgers and it’s not even close

4:48	JC: Bluejays would be up there

4:48	Ben Clemens: I might take the Yankees second

4:49	Ben Clemens: The willingness to pour a bunch of money into your team is no joke

4:49	Bubba: Reminder that Maldy chirped Tepera on Twitter yesterday…

4:49	Morbo: Red Sox v Astros for the ALDS has to be pretty much the worst case outcome for MLB

4:49	Ben Clemens: Strong disagree

4:49	Ben Clemens: I think Sox/Sox would be their preferred outcome

4:50	Ben Clemens: Why would they want the Rays in the ALCS if all they care about is audience?

4:50	Ben Clemens: (and I think that all they care about is audience)

4:51	Morbo: Yeah i was saying that with the sign stealing stigma associated with both the Red Sox and the Astros that’s the worst outcome for the ALDS but also looking most likely

4:51	Ben Clemens: I think it’d be Astros/Rays

4:51	Ben Clemens: One team who’s a villain, one small market team

4:53	N. Hornblower: Never underestimate the appeal of having a grade A villain.

4:53	Ben Clemens: Eh, I think that hte Astros are not the kind of villain MLB would prefer

4:54	Ben Clemens: I think they like the Yankees/Dodgers style, the juggernaut that keeps coming after you

4:54	Ben Clemens: Not the ‘this team cheated, remember when they cheated and former seaons’ results may not have been legitimate?’ type

4:55	Kevin Goldstein: Sorry, had to take President Pierce out to do his business.

4:55	Jimmy Wynn’s Toy Cannon: Agreed re: the Astros in the ALCS, but if the Dodgers make the WS, I imagine the MLB would be very intrigued in a 2017 rematch.

4:55	Ben Clemens: Yes, agreed

4:55	Ben Clemens: Rematches are always juicy

4:55	Kevin Goldstein: Astros/Dodgers would be incredibly compelling.

4:56	Ryan: I recall Kevin recently saying there are no small market teams. Was that sincere, and if so could you elaborate?

4:56	Kevin Goldstein: Sure. There are no small market teams. Owning a baseball team is a license to print money. Period.

4:56	Kevin Goldstein: The Rays could sign a big name FA and still make money.

4:57	Teddy: Would/should the Yankees consider trading for Shohei

4:57	Ben Clemens: It takes two to tango, and the Angels aren’t trading him

4:57	Kevin Goldstein: Exactly.

4:57	Ben Clemens: Someone could make a lot of money developing a solo tango

4:58	Kevin Goldstein: Michael Brantley: professional hitter. One must say that during every at-bat.

4:59	Kevin: What a bummer for that pitcher. No one has ever made this joke. I’m the first one.

4:59	Andrew: Non-Brantley players: Apparently they throw in the hitting for free. Not Michael. He charges.

5:00	Ben Clemens: The walks you can get for free

5:00	Ben Clemens: The hitting? That’ll cost you

5:00	N. Hornblower: Kevin, were you ever privy to how much the Astros made on a good night between, tickets, concessions, and mercy?

5:00	Kevin Goldstein: Just a little. I did once get some amazing insight on how much it costs to run the AC with the roof closer on a hot day. It’s a TON. Five figures.

5:01	barney gumble: are the Yankees going factor the emergence of Peraza and (while still a few years away) Volpe into the size of the contract they’d give out for a SS? or do you just acquire the talent and see where the chips fall?

5:01	Kevin Goldstein: If you’re the Yankees? The latter.

5:02	Ben Clemens: I just looked at the clock and how is this game going SO slowly?

5:02	Ben Clemens: There hasn’t been any particular time sink

5:02	Ben Clemens: The injury was maybe 5 minutes?

5:02	Kevin Goldstein: Holy crap, it’s 4pm, time to figure up game 2 on the extra monitor.

5:04	Kevin Goldstein: Astros games drag. Almost the whole lineup is a quality AB. White Sox have thrown 127 pitches through six.

5:05

Pinstripe Perry: For KG: In your chats you often talk about a good manager being worth wins (plural) every year. With the reports of Boone coming back, just curious how you view him? Tough to tell how he does a lot of the job, but the observable things (bullpen management, dealing with media, etc) leave a lot to be desired.

5:05	Ryan: I know this would affect all games, but commercial breaks are longer in the postseason right?

5:05	Ben Clemens: Yes

5:05	Kevin Goldstein: I think we can look at what we can look at (in-game strategy, media, etc.), but most of the job is not accessible to the public so it’s really very hard to judge from the outside.

5:06	Kevin Goldstein: It’s one extra ad in the playoffs, right?

5:07

WaitWaitDontTellShe: There’s lots of opinions, but what “problem” should the 100 win Rays fix this offseason? It looked to me like they got cocky in their ability to turn bad 30 year olds into good 31 year olds, so they traded away good pitching (Snell, Castillo, Matt Liberatore, Joe Ryan), brought in bad pitching, and then got hammered in the playoffs. You gotta be cocky to trade Adames for Feyereisen and Diego Castillo for Chargois. That management team looks overconfident from the outside.

5:07	Kevin Goldstein: They won 100 games and lost a playoff series. I can happen to any team. They could spend some in FA and be better, they choose not to.

5:07	Kevin Goldstein: It’s silly to act like they’re bad because Boston bounced them.

5:08	Ben Clemens: I would argue that to the extent that there’s a problem, it’s that we tend to overrate their skill level based on their regular season record

5:08	Ben Clemens: b/c they’re just so good at getting the small edges from the back of the roster

5:09	Ben Clemens: That doesn’t somehow make them worse in the playoffs

5:09	Ben Clemens: But if the Rays were run with the same players but like a more ‘normal’ team, maybe they win 93 games and we’re not so surprised when they lose

5:10	JC: Would you say wins above Pythag. Expected Wins to be somewhat indicative of a manager’s effect of managing bullpens?

5:10	Ben Clemens: Eh…. too noisy

5:11	Kevin Goldstein: Quick reminder that if the Astros go on to win this game, which is currently around 96%, we have NO GAME tomorrow, so go White Sox just for that fact.

5:11	Ben Clemens: Somewhat, but I think you’d need a lot of years of data to have signal outstrip noise and teams don’t stay the same that long

5:11	Kevin Goldstein: Luis Robert is out of the game, Adam Engel in CF. So 96% might be low….

5:12	Ben Clemens: Oof

5:12	Jake: Phil Maton looked quietly nasty there just then

5:12	Kevin Goldstein: He’s got really excellent raw stuff and when the command is there, he’s high-leverage worthy.

5:12	barney gumble: assuming the Chisox can’t rally back here, what are their offseason moves? the team didn’t appear to have many cracks in their armor but this year will surely be viewed as a disappointment.

5:13	Ben Clemens: Pick up Kimbrel’s option, pick up Hernandez’s option, look for more starting pitching

5:13	Kevin Goldstein: right leg tightness for Robert

5:14	Bill: Does that mean they let Rodon go?

5:15	Kevin Goldstein: Feel like that’s very much a TBD

5:15	Ben Clemens: He’s a free agent, so it’s not that I’d hate getting him back, it’s just not a retain an option type deal

5:15	Mark: If the Rays actually change anything about their process, shouldn’t it be to pay stars they develop instead of trading them? Everything else seems to be working pretty well

5:15	Kevin Goldstein: That would be a good start.

5:15	Ben Clemens: I think that would be pretty much the whole thing

5:15	Ben Clemens: It would require a meaningfully higher budget, of course

5:16	Kevin Goldstein: Like seriously, what’s the odds that Wander Franco is in Tampa during his final year of arbitration?

5:16	Kevin Goldstein: 50/50? That would be my max.

5:16	Ben Clemens: Like 3:1 against

5:17	Kevin Goldstein: Ok, for you multi-screen people, Charlie Morton delivered strong one to Kolten Wong….

5:17	Top10OnlyDudesContributor: Wander Franco bout to be the first 23 year old traded to cut payroll.

5:17	Kevin Goldstein: An amazing sentence.

5:19	Marty funkhouser: Still hard to believe that basically this Astros team + Cole and Morton and Verlander didn’t win the whole thing in ‘19

5:19	Kevin Goldstein: Playoffs are unpredictable. Every team in the playoffs are good. There are no overwhelming favorites.

5:19	J: What happens first the rays trade wander or they leave tampa?

5:19	Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think they’re going anywhere…..

5:20	Ben Clemens: I think the bluff about Montreal remains a bluff

5:20	mybloodyballantine: What if the real World Series is the money we saved on the way?

5:20	Phil: What do you think Whitlock’s short- and long-term future might be? His ability to go multiple innings has been so valuable it seems like a waste to make him a traditional closer. (Also, hot take: the play of the game last night was his backing up third on the dumb Renfroe throw.)

5:20	Kevin Goldstein: I think there is something no team is doing that someone should do, and Whitlock might be the person for it. The 100+ inning reliever…..

5:21	Kyle Kishimoto: do you think there will be a point where wander becomes as untradeable as mike trout (i.e. “anyone who wants him would have to dismantle their entire org for him and no one wants that”)?

5:21	Ben Clemens: I think he’s there right now, but will move out of that territory as he keeps getting better but control keeps goin down

5:21	Kevin Goldstein: Wong HBP and Adames single and Milwaukee has something going in the first. In three games, the Rowdy Tellez home run in game one remains the ONLY RUNS THEY HAVE SCORED.

5:21	Ben Clemens: I don’t think anyone in the top 10 or so of our trade value series is actually getting traded, though

5:22	Tiger Fan: Hey… Tyler Alexander threw 106 innings and only started 15 games… close to the 100 IP reliever?

5:22	Kevin Goldstein: I’m talking 63 G, 0 GS, 113.1 IP.

5:23	abgb123: Kyle Tucker reminds me of John Olerud with plus power

5:23	Ben Clemens: Gonna need him to wear a helmet at all times to really make it work

5:23	Kevin Goldstein: Go look at 70s relievers like Sparky Lyle, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, etc.

5:23	Tiger Fan: That’d be fascinating. Nobody in TB has done it?

5:24	Phil: Would the goal still be for the 100-inning reliever to finish the game, or would he follow the starter (which was often Whitlock’s role before Barnes slocumbed).

5:24	Kevin Goldstein: Use him in the innings where he best impacts a game.

5:24	Top10OnlyDudesContributor: I feel like Rasmussen was groomed to be a multi inning reliever, but was so good, he became a traditional starter

5:24	Ben Clemens: Agreed with this

5:25	Kevin: Leaving Maton in there wow

5:25	Kevin Goldstein: Only threw like 12 pitches in last frame….

5:26	Yelich: Ok, what’s going on here? Is 2018-19 the fluke, or 2020-21?

5:26	Ben Clemens: Classic unsatisfying FG answer, but why not both?

5:27	JTF: What stadium is most hostile to play in as a visitor in the playoffs

5:27	Kevin Goldstein: Yankee Stadium. Really not close.

5:27	Ben Clemens: If he’s a 125 wRC+ type, low 800s OPS, I wouldn’t be surprised

5:28	Ben Clemens: His absurd power on contact just seemed to good to be true even as it was happening

5:28	Big Hairy Clock: What makes Yankee Stadium more hostile than Fenway?

5:28	Kevin Goldstein: I been in both as a visitor in the playoffs, and there’s an edge to Yankee Stadium.

5:29	Kevin Goldstein: And the Brewers don’t score, because that’s what they do this series.

5:29	justadog: Kevin, I assume teams spend a decent amount on vision testing and training, right? Thinking about Yelich and how awful he looks and whether it could have anything to do with his vision.

5:29	Kevin Goldstein: Tons.

5:29	Ben Clemens: Were you at the 2015 wild card game??

5:29	Kevin Goldstein: I was!

5:29	Ben Clemens: If so I probably heckled you, I went with some of my Yanks fan friends

5:30	Ben Clemens: still have a wonderful grainy cell phone picture of Judge and Altuve passing each other on the field

5:30

Kevin Goldstein: My wife and I couldn’t get out of there and it took forever and then we want to an all night diner and my wife had breakfast food and cheap wins and I got a black and white cookie to take back to hotel after. We had an early morning flight home the next day. My wife doesn’t even like baseball and she’s been to so many stadiums and 10 World Series games.

5:30	Ben Clemens: er, sorry, of Correa and Altuve**

5:31	Andrew: What are some of the most egregious listed heights for players? I’m thinking particularly of Altuve’s 5’6″ and Bregman’s 6′

5:31	Kevin Goldstein: Altuve closer to his than Bregman.

5:31	Ben Clemens: I hadn’t seen the Astros in person before and that combo of giant shortstop/tiny 2b was just quite amusing to me

5:33	Ben Clemens: The Brewers not being able to score there is not a good sign

5:34	Ben Clemens: Their offense is just on a milk carton

5:34	Kevin Goldstein: And Braves start inning with Swanson double . . . just bad vibes if you are Milwaukee.

5:35	Ben Clemens: Yeah, this game was always gonna be the toughest one for them to win, but you’d like to see some runs at least

5:35	Ben Clemens: Also: I think not bringing Burnes back on short rest was the right call

5:36	Kevin Goldstein: If you are ahead in a post-season game, at what point is it ok to start counting outs? 12 (15.3% \| 10 votes) 9 (29.2% \| 19 votes) 6 (24.6% \| 16 votes) 3 (7.6% \| 5 votes) Never (23.0% \| 15 votes) Total Votes: 65

5:36	Kevin Goldstein: Agree on Burnes. In pre-game stuff, it sounded like he just wasn’t ready physically to do it, so the question was moot.

5:37	Kevin Goldstein: KG Trivia Tidbit. The last no-hitter I saw in person was thrown by Eric Lauer.

5:37	Kevin Goldstein: Error away from perfect game.

5:37	Ben Clemens: I think prescriptive ‘send your ace out on short rest’ managing is just as bad as prescriptive ‘no one goes a third time through’ managing

5:38	Counting outs: Shouldn’t the difference in score impact when you start counting outs?

5:38	Kevin Goldstein: Fair point.

5:39	Kevin Goldstein: Here’s the box score on the Eric Lauer. Me and about 50 other people there, around half of whom were scouts.

5:39	Kevin Goldstein: https://kentstatesports.com/sports/baseball/stats/2016/bowling-green/b…

5:39	jj: An AL Central team has not won a series since Cleveland won the ALCS in 2016

5:39	Ben Clemens: Ooooof

5:39	JTF: Are there any teams with relatively underappreciated scouting and development teams?

5:39	Kevin Goldstein: One that comes to mind is losing a playoff game right now….

5:41	segiddins: Does anyone else just feel a twinge in their elbow every time Kimbrel stares in for the sign?

5:42	Kevin Goldstein: I feel that way with most relievers. . .

5:44	Kevin Goldstein: Lauer escapes the first inning unscathed, and vibes are back to neutral in Atlanta.

5:45	jj: Is Kimbrell’s half season with the Cubs, vs the previous 2 ‘seasons’ with them and the 1/3 of a season with the White Sox enough of a reason to pay him next season?

5:45	Kevin Goldstein: Will The White Sox pick up Kimbrell’s $16m option? Yes (59.3% \| 38 votes) No (40.6% \| 26 votes) Total Votes: 64

5:46	Ben Clemens: I think they pick it up. Getting a one-year deal for a guy who’s that good when he’s on is reason enough to do it for me

5:46	Ben Clemens: Hey, Grandal tried a throw!

5:46	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, I think the Astros have something in their advance stuff on running on Grandal….

5:48	Kevin Goldstein: Professional Hitter.

5:48	Kevin Goldstein: This one feels over.

5:48	Ben Clemens: Yeah

5:48	jj: $16 mil would make Kimbrell the 3rd highest paid White Sox player right?

5:48	Ben Clemens: Seems reasonable

5:49	Ben Clemens: Nice way of saying they have a lot of team-friendly deals

5:49	Kevin Goldstein: Five straight LCS appearances for Houston.

5:49	Ben Clemens: This is like how the Rays’ highest-paid player is never one of their best ones

5:50	Zander: hasn’t the Rays’ highest-paid player been Kiermaier a bunch of years in a row? Or did the Morton deal surpass KK?

5:50	Kevin Goldstein: Morton was making more.

5:50	Ben Clemens: Oh man, when Brantley takes one on you

5:50	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, if Brantley is running . . .

5:51	Kevin: Professional base stealer

5:51	kyle: Professional runner

5:51	abgb123: The first time I saw Morton, sometime around 09′-10′ I thought for sure he was the next Roy Halladay

5:51	Kevin Goldstein: That too!

5:51	Ben Clemens: Decidedly amateur imo

5:51	Ben Clemens: Running there is truly rubbing their face in it

5:51	Ben Clemens: I don’t care about unwritten rules but that’s definitely saying ‘good game’ before your opponent after you crush them

5:52	jj: Wait 4th highest I forgot Dallas K (oof) They have a hole or two in their rotation and a $14mil closer already, so I think it is reasonable to think about spending $16 mill somewhere else.

5:53	Ben Clemens: Looks like 5th highest (Abreu, Keuchel, Grandal, Lynn)

5:53	Decided amateur: Perhaps they don’t feel as certainly that it’s over as you do, Clemens.

5:53	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, CLEMENS.

5:53	Ben Clemens: Haha I mean, I”m not saying they shouldn’t do it

5:54	Ben Clemens: I’m not convinced they’d do it if it weren’t for Tepera

5:54	Ben Clemens: it’s not even like that was a high-EV steal

5:54	JTF: yordan is a top __ hitter in the league

5:54	Kevin Goldstein: 20

5:54	Ben Clemens: 15

5:55	Ben Clemens: I wanted to say 10, but I can’t be that much more optimistic than Kevin, who is very high on him as is

5:55	Kevin Goldstein: I was being conservative. If he ends up with some top ten seasons, I won’t be surprised at all.

5:56	Houston workday distractions: When’s the last time (if ever) a team made 5-straight LCS?

5:56	Kevin Goldstein: Broadcast mentioned it. A’s in 70s, somebody in the 80s….

5:56	Nate: I saw before the end of the season that the Astros had started giving Yordan more reps at 1B finally…do you think he can ever get competent enough there to play it on a consistent basis post Yuli?

5:56	Kevin Goldstein: I don’t.

5:57	abgb123: Vlad Jr has to be a top 5 hitter by now, right? A professional hitter if you will

5:57	Kevin Goldstein: Oh absolutely.

5:58	Kevin Goldstein: Three outs to go, so once again, I just want to thank everyone for spending their afternoon with us. You folks are the bestest.

5:58	jj: Zips had him #6 in wOBA going into the season

5:58	Ben Clemens: ZiPS LOVES Yordan for sure

5:59	Ben Clemens: I get it

5:59	Ben Clemens: I love Yordan too

5:59	kyle: Radiohead bumper is a weird choice

5:59	kyle: Any realistic post-Yuli 1B on the current radar? Jones?

5:59	Kevin Goldstein: Nah. Jones probably doesn’t even survive the off-season on the 40 man.

5:59	Ben Clemens: The music choices in this game have been all over the place

6:00	6 outs to go: actually, Goldstein.

6:01	Kevin Goldstein: Whoops! Puppy distraction!

6:01	Kevin Goldstein: This game approaching 4 hours DOES feel weird, maybe it was the time.

6:01	abgb123: Even with a chinstrap Lauer looks 17

6:01	TJJ: Is Eric Lauer for real?

6:02	Ben Clemens: Depends what ‘real’ means I’d say

6:02	Ryan: Thanks for doing these chats, they are great. Do any of you wonder how many pro players are here?

6:02	Kevin Goldstein: I have heard via text from at least one front office person from a team during every one of these. I always apologize and then ask them what the hell they are doing watching our chat.

6:02	Kevin Goldstein: I think Lauer is a legit non-star starter.

6:03	Ben Clemens: Yeah like if he’s your third/fourth starter? Cool!

6:03	Ben Clemens: If he’s your second-best starter? I don’t thikn he can sustainably be that on a good team

6:03	kyle: MLB should commission one awful song called like, “Champion Moment (Respect to Win)” and play it at every break like ESPN does for college football

6:03	Ben Clemens: They should just use “Remember the Name”

6:03	Ben Clemens: Definitely the right vibe to be annoying yet sports-sounding

6:05	Kevin Goldstein: Braves threatening….

6:06	Kevin Goldstein: It feels like even one run here from Atlanta would be major problems for Milwaukee.

6:06	Kevin Goldstein: Recency bias, but man.

6:07	Ben Clemens: Recency bias, but only kind of. Milwaukee is the worst hitting team int he playoffs by a good deal

6:07	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, was never good.

6:08	Ben Clemens: It’s getting worse from a bad starting place, basically

6:08	Donnie: Who are three best players in this game? The three you’d pick for your own team

6:08	Kevin Goldstein: I’d take Tatis with the first pick. Then Soto . . . .

6:09	Kevin Goldstein: CHIRPY ALERT

6:09	Ben Clemens: I’d take Soto first actually

6:09	Ben Clemens: I think Tatis is the right pick

6:09	Kevin Goldstein: I think that’s a totally defendable position.

6:09	Ben Clemens: But I would be watching this player for hopefully 15 years

6:10	Donnie: This game! Astros White Sox! Can see the confusion though

6:10	Ben Clemens: Oh, this game

6:10	Kevin Goldstein: I think what Ohtani did this year was amazing and unfathomable, but I do question the sustainability.

6:10	Kevin Goldstein: Let’s face it folks, this game has become a slog.

6:10	Ben Clemens: Then I’ll take Correa, then Bregman, I think

6:11	Kevin Goldstein: I’ll take Correa and then I gotta say, I’d think about Robert….

6:11	Ben Clemens: He’s third on my list. I’m very skeptical of his approach, though he’s obviously great

6:11	Kevin Goldstein: LaRussa wants to be done.

6:11	Ben Clemens: And then Yordan

6:12	Kevin Goldstein: This is absolutely performative.

6:12	Ben Clemens: What is he arguing even?

6:12	Ben Clemens: Like, I know that substantially he isn’ arguing anything

6:12	Ben Clemens: But what words is he saying?

6:13	abgb123: *even if you’re picking 15-20 on that draft you’d be very happy

6:13	Ben Clemens: In 2019, we did a staff franchise player draft and I picked 16th. I got Juan Soto

6:14	Ben Clemens: …. I’m not sure the staff in front of me drafted all that well

6:14	Quadrangular: Does fangraphs track playoff statistics for individual players? Can’t seem to find them

6:14	Ben Clemens: On anyone’s page, you can click ‘postseason’ to get their stats

6:14	Ben Clemens: We don’t have a great landing page for sortable postseason stats at the moment, though

6:15	Ben Clemens: Lol at Correa deciding not to tag Abreu and risk getting the horns

6:15	Guest: What does the fan graphs depth charts show once the regular season is over? Is it reprojecting 2021?

6:15	Ben Clemens: So I don’t know the EXACT details of this but more or less

6:16	Ben Clemens: It’s a generic playoff depth chart projection for each team

6:16	Bunk: Anyone else really like Wainwright in the booth? Seems pretty entertaining and knowledgeable

6:16	Kevin Goldstein: He’s VERY good.

6:16	Ben Clemens: It powers our playoff odds

6:16	Ben Clemens: Yeah good and he hasn’t had 100 games to start running out of stuff to say and going a little wild

6:16	kyle: Do the Astros run in the top of the 9th if they get somebody on?

6:16	Kevin Goldstein: Ten minutes ago I would have said no. Now I’m not so sure.

6:16	Ben Clemens: Here’s the real question: is LaRussa throwing at the Astros?

6:16	Ben Clemens: If he does he’ll get run immediately

6:16	Ben Clemens: But…. I think he would like to get run

6:16	Kevin Goldstein: Also wouldn’t shock me.

6:17	Kevin Goldstein: I mean, we shouldn’t like brawls, but secretly, I like brawls.

6:18	Ben Clemens: Hendriks does not seem like the kind of guy who throws at people

6:18	Shaquille Oatmeal: I hate how smart TVs not only don’t have a “previous channel” button, but take like 90 seconds to close my TBS app and fire up my Fox Sports app

6:18	Kevin Goldstein: You need a snappier TV!

6:18	Ben Clemens: Maybe that’s a weird take, but I think he’d consider it cowardly

6:18	Ben Clemens: And Liam Hendriks doesn’t seem like a coward

6:19	kyle: The rules are unwritten upside down in Australia

6:19	Kevin Goldstein: Important note.

6:19	Ben Clemens: I was at that weirdo first playoff series last year in Oakland

6:19	Ben Clemens: When he came in on 0 days rest

6:19	Ben Clemens: He was YELLING full-out on every pitch

6:19	Ben Clemens: just roaring

6:19	Hendricks: He was very outspoken against the Astros and then they made a very hard run to sign him. I always wonder what kind of effect that has on a player.

6:19	Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think a ton.

6:20	Frank: If a team had the option to say we’ll bypass our half of the inning to get on with it, do you think it would happen in games like this? Or fan service, etc would make them not? Pace of play!

6:20	Ben Clemens: Player service, too

6:20	Kevin Goldstein: Hah, first time a team does that and the game gets close becomes the last time a team does that.

6:20	Ben Clemens: I just think a team would never do it

6:20	Ben Clemens: Maybe on Sep 30 when eliminated from the playoff race and the veterans just want to go home

6:20	Ben Clemens: But players LOVE actually getting to hit

6:21	Ryan: You can pick one MLB player to help you in a fight. Who do you choose?

6:21	Kevin Goldstein: Fun question. Bregman is first answer, but still thinking on it.

6:21	Ben Clemens: Bregman huh?

6:21	Kevin Goldstein: Easy.

6:21	Ben Clemens: He is not the first person I’d take in this game

6:21	Kevin Goldstein: In a fight?

6:21	Ben Clemens: Abreu is up there for me

6:21	Kevin Goldstein: Abreu is an absolute Teddy Bear.

6:21	Ben Clemens: I don’t think Abreu would mess around and he’s suuuuper strong

6:22	Ben Clemens: I guess it depends what the context of the fight is

6:22	Kevin Goldstein: You’re in a bar, things start popping off…

6:23	kyle: Yordan could simply sit on your opponent

6:23	Kevin Goldstein: Yordan might be more of a gentle giant than Alvarez. It’s not about size.

6:24	Kevin Goldstein: Clearly you folks haven’t been in enough bar fights. The big guy is the least of your worries. It’s the little hyped up dude.

6:24	Ben Clemens: I think Trout is a sneaky pick. He’s an Eagles fan who attends Eagles games

6:24	Kevin Goldstein: Every time Snitker is shown on TV it looks like he has indegestion.

6:25	nat: This discussion is worth the FanGraphs membership fee.

6:25	Kevin Goldstein: PLEASE SUPPORT FANGRAPHS.

6:25	kyle: Dusty should have PH Castro

6:26	Ben Clemens: Unlike TLR, I think Dusty is 100% class

6:26	Ben Clemens: I was gonna say actually that’s not fair

6:26	Ben Clemens: but no

6:26	Ben Clemens: I do think that

6:26	Kevin Goldstein: It was a pleasure to meet him and spend oh such little time with him before the world went to hell in a handbasket.

6:26	Ben Clemens: I regret thinking I disliked Dusty and liked TLR when I was a young impressionable Cards fan

6:26	MFG1975: Gimme a hyped up Brett Gardner

6:27	Kevin Goldstein: Yes, would terrify me.

6:27	sadtrombone: Yan Gomez does MMA.

6:27	Ben Clemens: Goodness GRACIOUS

6:27	Kevin Goldstein: Good lord.

6:27	Ben Clemens: Altuve hit that to Naperville

6:27	Ben Clemens: (I don’t know many Chicago suburbs)

6:27	Kevin Goldstein: That tracks fine.

6:28	Kevin Goldstein: 110/27 on that HR.

6:29	Kevin Goldstein: Eric Lauer not pitching especially well, but getting out of jams at least.

6:30	Kevin Goldstein: It’s been kind of amazing, but I like low scoring games.

6:31	sadtrombone: The Brewers and Braves are going to see who can lose by scoring negative runs. Team that merely doesn’t score anything wins.

6:32	Kevin Goldstein: What game would you most want to watch based only on the score?? 1-0 (16.6% \| 8 votes) 4-3 (47.9% \| 23 votes) 11-10 (35.4% \| 17 votes) Total Votes: 48

6:32	Ben Clemens: Is that final score?

6:32	Ben Clemens: Or I’m turning it on in a random inning?

6:32	Kevin Goldstein: Final score

6:33	Ben Clemens: I guess I’m not sure if I know the score upfront

6:33	Ben Clemens: Last night’s Giants game was fun but it really did feel like offense was a little bit too hard to get to

6:34	Phil: I wonder what response you’d get if you polled a random group in a sports bar or the bleachers. Presumably FG folks have a bit more appreciation for pitching–although the poll is not leaning as heavily that way as I thought it would as I type this.

6:34	Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, I’m also surprised by the results.

6:34	jj: i usually don’t watch games I already know the score of

6:34	Ben Clemens: But not who wins, let’s say

6:35	Kevin Goldstein: I guess I should have said, which game did you enjoy the most after watching . . .

6:35	Ben Clemens: Yeah

6:35	Ben Clemens: I think that would have lowered my answer from 11-10 to 4-3

6:35	Ben Clemens: But maybe not

6:35	Ben Clemens: I like a good run-scoring double

6:35	Kevin Goldstein: Charlie Morton bad pickoff throw and the Brewers have a runner on second with one out.

6:36	Ben Clemens: I suppose it depends on the pitcher, too

6:36	Ben Clemens: If I’m watching deGrom vs. Scherzer or something, I want 1-0

6:36	Ben Clemens: If it’s Eric Lauer against Patrick Sandoval, that will probably not be a fun 1-0 game

6:37	Ben Clemens: sorry Eric!

6:37	Lily: I think it depends on what the last game I saw was. I love a good pitcher’s duel, but after a couple of those I’m up for a slugfest.

6:37	Phil: It is so rare to see a pitcher get through 7 these days that it’s become one of the most exciting things to me just because it feels special.

6:37	Slugfest: It’s fun when there’s lots of scoring and the lead goes back and forth a few times. I enjoy a good pitcher’s duel too, but sometimes it’s just fun to watch offense.

6:38	sadtrombone: It’s not the final score, though, it’s the lead changes / number of times someone gets in scoring position and doesn’t make it. Game 4 from Rays-Dodgers and all that was way more exciting than an average 4-3 or 11-10 game.

6:38	Ben Clemens: Good points, all

6:38	Kevin Goldstein: Brewers needing something big from Narváez and/or Cain feels . . . not ideal.

6:38	Ben Clemens: That’s a great thing about baseball, that you don’t know what kind of game you”ll get but all can be enjoyable

6:38	Ben Clemens: I’m still staying the course and watching the Astros close it out

6:39	Kevin Goldstein: You can’t have two games going?

6:39	Ben Clemens: Well yeah I hvae it in another tab but I have the sound and more of my attention on it

6:39	Kevin Goldstein: You somehow operate with one monitor?

6:39	Ben Clemens: One for the chat, one for the games!

6:39	Phil: White sox radio right now: “There is a double sadness. . . this team has no need to apologize. . .” Do teams generally apologize for losing?

6:40	Kevin Goldstein: I sure hope not.

6:40	Ben Clemens: Without knowing whether it is or not, that sounds more like a sumo thing, Kevin

6:40	Kevin Goldstein: I have chat on laptop screen, ATL/MIL on 2nd monitor, HOU/CWS on iPad

6:40	Kevin Goldstein: Oh, it very much is.

6:40	Kevin Goldstein: Ballgame. Congrats to the Astros for moving on to the ALCS to play the Red Sox. Go enjoy the rest of the day in baseball and thanks so much for joining us!

6:41	Ben Clemens: Thanks everyone!

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chisoxmatt

3 years ago

Worst part of this year was not losing to Astros but trading Madrigal for Kimbrel.

MikeSMember since 2020

Reply to chisoxmatt

At least they’ve got Cesar Hernandez for next year!

I think they intended those guys to be with the 2022 team and that’s one reason they made those deals, but one or both of them may have played their way into not getting their options picked up.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG