FG on FOX: The Next Garrett Richards
In an appearance on FanGraphs Audio in early 2012, shortly after the latter had been traded to the Yankees in a deal that sent Jesus Montero to Seattle, managing editor Dave Cameron spoke to the possible reasons for then-rookie Michael Pineda’s success in 2011 despite the almost total absence of a changeup. The changeup, or at least some manner of pitch defined more by its vertical than its horizontal movement, is regarded generally as a prerequisite for success as a starting pitcher. By way of example, consider: of 2011’s 94 qualified pitchers, only seven (or, 7.4%) threw their curveball, changeup, and/or splitter a combined 10% or less. One of those seven was R.A. Dickey, a knuckleballer. Another was Alexi Ogando, a reliever throwing in a starter’s role. Other pitchers with other unique circumstances occupied the remainder of the list.
Michael Pineda was a member of that group, as well. Despite throwing either a fastball or slider about 94% of the time in 2011, Pineda produced an excellent rookie season, recording the 11th-best strikeout- and walk-rate differential among that same group of qualifiers, a park-adjusted xFIP 13% better than league average, and the second-best WAR figure among all rookies (including hitters).
Other pitchers had exhibited the ability to survive without some manner of downward-moving pitch, but all of them were attended by an explanation. What, I asked, was Pineda’s? Cameron’s answer: If you throw 95 mph and also feature better-than-average control, you have a larger margin for error than pitchers who don’t have or do those things.
Indeed, Pineda’s combination of velocity and control wasn’t common. In 2011, the league-average walk rate was 8.1%. Only five starting pitchers posted a walk rate lower than that league-average mark while also recording an average fastball velocity of 94.5 mph or better.
Read the rest on Just A Bit Outside.
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.
Pitchers like Richards who come out of nowhere past 25 years old to make the jump to Cy Young candidate…Their performance upticks dont fit in well with historical baseball pitcher improvement curves…happening a lot these days…
Your point being, what, exactly?
He didnt come out of no where. He was a former first round pick who had only logged 350 innings in the minors.
When looking at Richards 2013, Wily Peralta’s 2014 seems to be similar. Throws hard, high GB rate, needs improvement in Ks and walks… Can you examine Peralta as a comparison?
I have to say, I don’t think I’ve ever seen an article that leads with “the latter” to refer to someone who hasn’t been mentioned yet.
Must be that Cistullian prose I’ve heard so much about
Agreed. I am just reading this article and thought, what? What a poorly constructed first sentence.
Who wrote this? It definitely was NOT Cistulli.
It was for FG on Fox so I would assume it would be decidedly less Cistullian given the difference in potential audience.
Yeah, it’s like someone took a Cistulli scribe and translated it into American!
Pineda is definitely not the next Garret Richards
Yeah, the comparison really doesn’t work. At all.
I’m pretty sure every Yankees fan in praying that Eovaldi continues his “Richards-lite” career path, though.
No one reads apparently, the article is about Carlos Frias of the Dodgers.
I don’t like giving Fox advertising dollars!
(that’s my excuse, at least)
You guys should probably read the article before commenting. When you do, you’ll see that back in 2011/12 Cistulli implemented a methodology to find the next Pineda, and his results found Richards.
Then he uses the same methodology again to attempt to find the next Pineda>Richards, whom he identifies in the conclusion.
He may not be the next garrett Richards but he will absolutely dominate the league this year. It’s really not all that hard to see dude is really really good.