Fielding the Yordan Alvarez Decision

As the World Series shifts to Washington, the Astros already find themselves in a two-games-to-none hole, and now they have to contend with another loss, namely that of the designated hitter slot. While Yordan Alvarez hasn’t been able to replicate the impressive regular season showing that’s made him the presumptive favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year honors, he’s shown signs of emerging from a slump by getting on base a team-high five times in the series’ first two games. Given his defensive limitations, playing him in the field is no trivial concern, but the Astros — whose offense in October has rarely resembled the juggernaut it was during the regular season — probably need his bat more than they do a better outfield defense.

In Thursday’s media session, manager A.J. Hinch conceded that he was wrestling with the problem:

I do like the at-bats he’s had specifically in the last game or two. The balance of where to play defense, where to keep your weapons on the bench, playing a National League game where you anticipate a few pinch-hits, having some resources on the bench in order for a big at-bat. I put Tucker in that at-bat yesterday with first and second with Strasburg at the end of his outing.

I’m weighing all of that. This is a really big left field, and I’m taking that into consideration… I can probably talk myself in and out of every scenario. I don’t think we play all three games here without him seeing the outfield. I’m not sure that will be tomorrow. Right now I’m kind of leaning against it. But I’ll make that decision when I have to.

Since arriving in the majors in early June, Alvarez has been one of the game’s most productive hitters. From his debut on June 9 — during which he homered off Dylan Bundy, the first of nine longballs in his initial 12 games — to the end of the season, his 178 wRC+ (via a .313/.412/.655 line) was virtually tied with Nelson Cruz for third in the majors, behind only Ketel Marte (183) and Alex Bregman (182); his slugging percentage ranked fourth in that span, his on-base percentage fifth, his 27 homers tied for 10th, and his 3.8 WAR tied for 11th — and that’s with the positional adjustment penalty that comes with regular DH duty.

Given his relevant scouting grades — 30 present value and 40 future value on his fielding, 45/40 on his running, and 45/45 on his arm — the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Alvarez looked quite likely to take the express route to the DH role once he reached the majors, and he did, playing just 10 of his 87 games in left field for a total of 66 innings and handling just 11 chances. He played left another 27 times at Triple-A Round Rock, and has a total of 133 minor league appearances there, with just two in right field and another 40 at first base; he hasn’t played either position in the majors.

As MLB.com’s Juan Toribo noted, Alvarez went 0-for-3 on two-star plays (76-90% catch probability) during his rare forays afield, and was near the bottom in the Outs Above Average rankings, albeit in a very small sample. From among his 11 chances, he made one throwing error in a July 7 game against the Angels, that after failing to field the ball cleanly:

Oof. Let’s balance that less-than-stellar moment with his lone outfield assist, which came on June 27 (his 22nd birthday) against the Pirates’ Jung Ho Kang:

That’s somewhat more reassuring. Leaving his defense aside for the moment and considering his bat, Alvarez was reasonably productive during the first four games of the Division Series against the Rays, going 6-for-16 with three doubles and a pair of two-hit games in the middle two contests. Even so, he struck out six times without a walk during that stretch, stranding six runners in scoring position on those Ks and driving in just one run; he had a -.216 WPA in that span. After doubling off Ryan Yarbrough in the fourth inning of Game 4, he struck out in each of his next two plate appearances, beginning a slump that lasted through the ALCS, during which he went just 1-for-22 with two walks, 12 strikeouts, and -0.55 WPA, the lowest mark of any player in any postseason series this year; Joe Kelly (-.5), Carlos Martinez, and Mark Melancon (both -.49) were all close.

Thanks in large part to their pitching and to José Altuve, who hit a combined .349/.417/.767 with five homers through the first two rounds while the rest of the team eked out a weak .189/.269/.303 showing, the Astros reached the World Series, giving Alvarez a chance to write a different ending to his rough October. He began doing that in Game 1, against Max Scherzer no less. Leading off the second inning, he got ahead 2-0, and didn’t swing at any of Scherzer’s six offerings, including a low 3-2 cutter, ultimately drawing a walk that went for naught when the next three Astros went down. Leading off the fourth, Alvarez rocketed a 1-1 changeup that was just outside the strike zone for a sharp single up the middle, one that nearly took out Scherzer:

At 107.0 mph, that was the hardest ball hit off the Nationals righty all night by a good five mph; alas, the Astros stranded him. After Scherzer yielded to lefty Patrick Corbin to start the sixth inning, with one out, Alvarez swung through a 2-0 slider on the inner third, and then connected on a 93 mph fastball, dunking a single to right field:

Again, the Astros, who already trailed 5-2 at this point, stranded him. They had trimmed the lead to 5-3 on George Springer’s homer off Tanner Rainey, and eventually Alvarez came up with the bases loaded against Daniel Hudson, who began by dotting the outside corner with a 96 mph fastball that Alvarez took for a strike. After fouling off a heater located in the middle of the zone, he struck out against the high cheese:

Hudson beat Alvarez on a pitch he generally handled well during the regular season. On four-seam fastballs of at least 95 mph, located in the upper third of the strike zone or higher, he produced a .337 wOBA, 62 points above the league average. He’s managed just a .226 wOBA on those pitches in October, striking out swinging at three of them; Rainey punched him out that way in the eighth inning of Game 2, by which point the Astros were already down 11-2.

Prior to that, Alvarez again had decent at-bats. He led off the second inning with a 99.3 mph scorcher to short right field, a drive that had a hit probability of 91%, but with the Nationals in a shift, second baseman Brian Dozier was well-positioned to spear it:

With one out in the fourth, Alvarez hit another ball — off a changeup this time, instead of a curve — at exactly the same velocity and again towards right field, but this time a grounder instead of a liner; this time, the shifted second baseman (Asdrúbal Cabrera) couldn’t even stop it by diving:

The Astros couldn’t convert that one, nor could they do anything when Alvarez was intentionally walked with one out in the sixth following Yuli Gurriel’s double.

Alvarez is still batting just .213/.288/.277 overall in the postseason. He hasn’t done nearly the same kind of damage to fastballs or sliders that he did during the regular season, this despite seeing a significantly higher percentage of the former.

Alvarez spent the regular season annihilating four-seam fastballs, slugging .742 and with nine home runs. He’s seen a lot more four-seamers this October relative to other pitch types, but the story has been different, as he’s slugged just .158 against them. A closer look shows that Alvarez has actually struggled versus the higher-velocity heaters, and he’s nearly four times as many of them in October:

That first line is the same as the one from the previous table, while the second is the subset of four-seamers 95 mph or higher; they accounted for just under 10% of the total pitches he saw during the regular season and 27% of the four-seam fastballs he faced. In the postseason, they account for about 37% of the pitches he’s seen, and about 73% of the four-seamers, and all he has to show for it is a pair of singles, one against Green on October 17 and the other against the Rays’ Nick Anderson on October 5; meanwhile, he’s swung and missed for strike three four times, and taken strike three once. And when he has connected, quality of contact has been an issue; where Alvarez produced an average exit velocity of 101.5 mph and an xwOBA of .429 on those 95+ fastballs during the regular season, he’s averaged just 86.5 mph with a .257 wOBA in the postseason. Of course, when those fastballs are coming from the likes of James Paxton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Luis Severino, Charlie Morton, and Scherzer, it’s easier to understand him scuffling, even if not all of those pitchers has been in mint condition this month.

Likewise, Alvarez hasn’t found much joy against sliders, on which he slugged .769 with eight home runs this year, and again, quality of contact has been an issue. Where he averaged 92.8 mph on contact during the regular season, he’s down to just 84.2 mph, and his xwOBA has dropped from .411 to .165.

Given that the Astros are going with the more groundball-oriented Zack Greinke in Game 3, and that the Nationals are countering with Aníbal Sánchez, I think there’s a strong argument to stick with Alvarez. Sánchez’s four-seam fastball averaged just 90.5 mph during the regular season and 89.9 in the postseason. The 35-year-old righty has been very effective in his two postseason starts while accompanying that with a cutter/curve/changeup mix, but it’s worth the bet that he won’t chase another no-hitter.

Playing Alvarez in left field would require Michael Brantley to move to right, where he has just nine games of major league experience, all this year, and usually (five out of eight starts) for games where Alvarez played left. The alternative for Hinch is to play lefty Josh Reddick, a more adept fielder (9 DRS, -0.3 UZR) who hit just .275/.319/.409 (94 wRC+) in the regular season and is just 3-for-27 in the postseason; for Game 4, when Corbin is expected to start, the alternative would be righty Jake Marisnick (.233/.289/.411, 86 wRC+) in center and Springer in right. Again, it’s worth noting that Alvarez collected hits against both Corbin and Scherzer, who’s lined up for a potential Game 5.

Hinch’s concerns aren’t trivial, and he does sound like he’s concerned with the impact of the defensive downgrade:

[Alvarez’s bat is] important as it can be unless we don’t make a play in the outfield and I’ve got two guys out of position and we give up runs that way… I think it also is smart when you’re facing a team like the Nats that put the ball in play, that challenge you with an up-tempo, fast style of play, there’s the other side of the ball, as well.

So I’m valuing how much defense — if I’ve got to play three to six innings of defense in order to get those two at-bats that you’re referring or do I wait for the big at-bat and have him pinch-hit. That’s the nature of managing, I’ll have to make that decision.

The problem with waiting for a big at-bat is that the moment might not align with the team’s other needs; would he pinch-hit for Greinke in the third, fourth, or fifth inning while the team is down a run or two given that Game 4 will be a bullpen game? It’s not an easy decision, but with so few of the Astros swinging the bat well, and with the hole they find themselves in, they probably can’t afford to be conservative.