Finding Andre Ethier a Home
The Dodgers are (reportedly) willing to pay half of Andre Ethier’s contract! As Dave Cameron pointed out, he seems a bit superfluous to the current state of the Dodgers. Now that he’s only going to cost a team around $28 million over the next three years, can we find him a home?
Last year, Ethier was below average with the bat (overall and by power) and the glove in the outfield over more than 300 plate appearances. At 32 years old. Here’s the list of player-seasons over the last five years that had years like that since 2010, and were still above replacement:
| Season | Name | PA | HR | BB% | K% | BABIP | AVG | OBP | ISO | wOBA | wRC+ | BsR | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Juan Pierre | 439 | 1 | 5.2% | 6.2% | 0.327 | 0.307 | 0.351 | 0.063 | 0.320 | 99 | 3.9 | -4.1 | 1.4 |
| 2013 | Rajai Davis | 360 | 6 | 5.8% | 18.6% | 0.308 | 0.260 | 0.312 | 0.115 | 0.305 | 87 | 10.2 | -6 | 1.2 |
| 2014 | Andre Ethier | 380 | 4 | 8.2% | 19.5% | 0.307 | 0.249 | 0.322 | 0.120 | 0.307 | 98 | -2.1 | -2.3 | 0.7 |
| 2012 | Skip Schumaker | 304 | 1 | 8.9% | 16.4% | 0.332 | 0.276 | 0.339 | 0.092 | 0.310 | 94 | 0.7 | -1.3 | 0.7 |
| 2010 | Scott Podsednik | 595 | 6 | 6.7% | 13.9% | 0.338 | 0.297 | 0.342 | 0.085 | 0.322 | 99 | 3.9 | -17.9 | 0.5 |
| 2011 | Jason Bay | 509 | 12 | 11.0% | 21.4% | 0.295 | 0.245 | 0.329 | 0.128 | 0.312 | 98 | 0.7 | -11.1 | 0.4 |
| 2011 | Juan Rivera | 521 | 11 | 8.3% | 14.6% | 0.281 | 0.258 | 0.319 | 0.124 | 0.309 | 93 | -2.4 | -6 | 0.4 |
| 2014 | Ichiro Suzuki | 385 | 1 | 5.5% | 17.7% | 0.346 | 0.284 | 0.324 | 0.056 | 0.296 | 86 | 2.5 | -5.5 | 0.4 |
| 2014 | Alex Rios | 521 | 4 | 4.4% | 17.9% | 0.335 | 0.280 | 0.311 | 0.118 | 0.309 | 92 | 0.5 | -10.9 | 0.2 |
| 2011 | Ryan Ludwick | 558 | 13 | 9.1% | 22.2% | 0.287 | 0.237 | 0.310 | 0.127 | 0.298 | 92 | -2.2 | -9 | 0.1 |
| 2011 | Willie Bloomquist | 381 | 4 | 6.0% | 13.4% | 0.300 | 0.266 | 0.317 | 0.074 | 0.292 | 76 | 2.0 | -2.3 | 0.1 |
| 2011 | Ichiro Suzuki | 721 | 5 | 5.4% | 9.6% | 0.295 | 0.272 | 0.310 | 0.064 | 0.281 | 79 | 8.4 | -12.3 | 0.1 |
That’s not an exciting list. Only Rajai Davis has bounced back to be a valuable semi-regular player, and he probably has more defensive value than Ethier — at least, he profiles better in center field despite some iffy numbers at the position.
Alex Rios might give us pause. He just got one year and $11 million from the Royals, who also felt inclined to include a team option for $12.5 million next year. Because of the structure of the deal, the max value is $21.5 million over the next two years. That suggests that Rios was *almost* valued as highly by the market as a three-year $28 million contract would value Ethier.
How do those two players compare?
Source: FanGraphs — Alex Rios, Andre Ethier
Decently, actually. The numbers agree, though they point out that the skillsets are slightly different. Rios has been slightly more valuable over the last three years, but has put forth more of that value on the basepaths.
| Name | PA | HR | SB | BB% | K% | BABIP | AVG | OBP | ISO | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ethier | 1551 | 36 | 8 | 9.2% | 18.9% | 0.320 | 0.271 | 0.347 | 0.154 | 116 | -1.8 | 26.7 | -13.5 | 6.4 |
| Alex Rios | 1823 | 47 | 82 | 4.9% | 16.1% | 0.322 | 0.288 | 0.324 | 0.164 | 108 | 13.9 | 31.2 | -19.8 | 7.5 |
Considering that Ethier’s superior plate discipline should age better than Rios’ athleticism, and Ethier’s a year younger, it’s possible to look past the difference in wins accrued over the last three years.
The problem is that, if we call them comparable, the market just had a chance to get this player without spending an asset. And the market paid less than $28 million.
But let’s say that the Dodgers kick a little more in. Or a team likes that Ethier is younger and has better plate discipline. And wants the extra year at a cheaper rate as Rios got from the Royals. What team might we be talking about?
The Braves are sporting a hurt Nick Markakis, Zoilo Almonte, Eric Young, and Jonny Gomes right now on the depth chart, and could maybe use a veteran to bridge the gap to Dian Toscano. Right now, their corner outfielders are both bottom-five on the depth charts, and Ethier and Gomes would be a better platoon than Young and Gomes. If the Dodgers cover a little more than half, Ethier might be interesting to them. Might.
The Phillies have the ghost of Grady Sizemore, Doobie Herrera, Domonic Brown, and Darin Ruf manning two bottom-five corner outfield squadrons. Sizemore, Brown, and Ethier are all lefties, though. It’s a tougher fit.
One last team should get mention: the Rangers. They might be able to be more competitive than the other two teams, and a veteran corner outfielder like Ethier might be better than what they have currently. The problem is that it seems the Rangers have already made their bed — they have Ryan Ludwick, Nate Schierholtz, Michael Choice, Ryan Rua, Jake Smolinski, Delino Deshields Jr., and Carlos Peguero in camp playing in the corner outfield. Ethier is projected to be a one-win guy over 600 plate appearances next year, and some combo of those guys can probably do that for the Rangers, without costing them $28 million and a prospect.
And that’s really the problem. There’s just not a lot of demand for a free agent that’s not projected to be league average, especially at the corner outfield position. The teams that have openings there aren’t really great fits — by this point, they’ve collected a group of cheaper options that can approximate Andre Ethier’s probable output.
We tried, but it might be too much of a task. Andre Ethier may not have a regular home in any starting lineup this year.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I think the Dodgers are kidding themselves if they think some team will take 1/2 his contract. They’ll need to pickup at least 75% to even start the conversation with any team.
Before my Royals signed Rios, this was my thinking as well. Give up a nothing prospect for Ethier, but only be on the hook for around 25% of his remaining contract. That’s a price point worth considering him at.
Although I dislike the Rios contract, at least it was a short term commitment. 3 years of Ethier at $28 mil total is neither short nor cheap, and there’s practically no way he provides value in the final year of that deal.
Grady Sizemore is only making $2 million. I don’t see how Eithier is better.
Andre Eithier is in the same position as Ryan Howard, unless he plays a lot
better he isn’t going to find what he’s looking for in MLB.
You don’t see how Ethier is better than Grady Sizemore? He’s not good but this isn’t 2008.
If L.A. has to pay a huge chunk Ethier’s salary and they can’t get anything halfway decent for him, may as well keep him. Can be decent vs. RHP, Crawford will get hurt at some time, Pederson as a rookie has risk, and off the bench Ethier has some value as a fill-in or PHer.
Also, might an a decent idea to wait out an injury in some other team’s OF/DH situation which might open up the market a little.
But his morale is low. He’s publicly stated that he’s frustrated he can’t find playing time. Regardless of whether or not he’s justified, you want to get that guy out of the clubhouse.
This.
Eat most of his salary, trade him for a couple of warm-bodied class “C” prospects, and be done with it. And, that frees up one more roster spot to keep Alex Guerrero, who’s bound to be more useful to the Dodgers than Ethier is anyway.
If charities are good, if John Middleton is good, why is Andre Ethier homeless?
Seems like a potential fit with the Orioles to me, he can platoon at DH with Young and get some spare ABs in the outfield… at the right price of course…
The O’s could have used another outfielder before trading for Travis Snider. They don’t really have another slot now, not unless Ethier is better than Alejandro De Aza, which he probably isn’t.
Ethier is better than Snider.
Possibly, but not in the sport of baseball, not in 2014 and beyond.
Ethier used to be better, but he isn’t any more. You pay for future performance, not past.
Snider provides about 90% or better of Ethier’s offensive performance right now, much higher performance with the glove, is still young enough that he may improve, and costs essentially zero in comparison.
Tell me again why the Orioles should trade for Ethier?
They shouldn’t… not with deAza, Snider and Lough already there.
Could see Twins in swap for Nolasco perhaps. Going to take contract swap to make it happen.
If you extend it to “wait and see” as opposed to Day One possibilities, I wonder if the Pirates could be a possibility. Marte and McCutchen aren’t going anywhere, but if Polanco continues to struggle, they don’t have a lot of options behind him. If it’s getting out toward June and July and the Bucs are being held back by an underproductive RF, maybe a deep-discount Ethier starts to look like an upgrade while Polanco gets his shit together.
No chance. Andrew Lambo at the league minimum is probably better than Ethier at 28M for 3 years. If Kang produces at all they could put him at third and have Harrison play right field, too. Hell, I’d rather have Jose Tabata than Ethier at that price, too. If Ethier was a rental player who was set to be a free agent next year,it might make a tiny bit of sense if there were no other better options availalbe to trade for. But the team is not going to give up on Polanco in July and commit to Ethier for the next 3 years.
Think someone can trade for him then flip him to SF?
If SF wanted him I don’t think the current Dodgers front office would have any qualms about sending him there. I doubt that the Giants have much interest.
Yeah, a left handed knucklehead in AT&T, there’s a prescription for success. I can’t see anyone beyond Houston where he can swing for the Crawford boxes all he wants.
The Phillies should not be in the discussion for Ethier. Even if half his contract is picked up by LA, that’s $9m for 2015, $9m for 2016, $8.75m for 2017, and then the $2.5m buyout of 2018, and who knows if Philly would pick that up, or LA would, or if that would be split in half too. Best case scenario, that’s $26.75m the Phillies would be picking up for the next three years at least, including this upcoming season. Why would the Phillies take this on when they’ve publicly committed to a rebuild? To take on all that extra money for a rapidly declining, aging OF? It doesn’t make any sense.
RAJ has made a lot (a LOT!) of questionable decisions in the past, but even he’d have to realize that there’s nothing to be gained from adding Ethier.
It sounds like Andre Ethier is the Dodgers’ Ryan Howard; expensive, rapdily declining skills, and unfortunately the only way to be rid of him is to just ride out the contract.
Maybe a reasonable trade would be Ethier for Howard straight up. According to the link below, Howard’s remaining negative value exceeds Ethier’s remaining negative value by about $20M. So perhaps a trade of Howard + “B” Prospect for Ethier would make sense. Aside from the fact that Howard would be more useless on the Dodgers than he is on the Phillies.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/crowdsourced-results-dead-money-of-select-trade-targets/
I don’t think there’s a chance the Phillies would do that. They’d be trading one bad contract for another, except this one goes one year longer than Howard’s, AND they’d be losing a fairly decent prospect, of which the Phillies have few.
There’s no way the Dodgers would do that. I think they’d rather have the versatility of Ethier’s bad contract over what Howard has to offer.
This is one of those “gut” things which doesn’t really hold up in a real trade situation, but my “gut” tells me that if you put Ethier in a hitters park (Texas, Baltimore come to mind) and a new setting he stll has a few decent seasons in him.
He’s not a terrible outfielder, either. I think a contender looking for a big bet potential upgrade midseason, he might make sense.
Also think he could do well on the Yankees. Seems like one of those guys who would go to the Yankees and hit 30 Homeruns out of nowhere.
Yankees? Well he is old, broken down and overpaid. Good point.
I’d love your opinion Eno! Keepers due tomorrow:
13 team 6×6 (OPS and QS) Roto – 2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, 4 OF, 3 U, 4 SP, 3 RP, 2 P, 6 Bench, 3 DL
I can only keep up to 4 of these players for just this year while forfeiting the provided round’s pick:
Jose Abreu – 6
Jose Altuve – 7
Corey Kluber – 16
George Springer – 19
Corey Dickerson – 26
If they package him with Urias or Seager, they’ll pay a lot less than 50% .. like, say, 0%.
lol.
The Dodgers had a chance to move him under these terms to the Mariners, Orioles, Tigers, among other teams, and now the ship has sailed.
The Toronto Blue Jays could be a possibility. Saunders is out for some weeks, and by the time he’s back they might have moved Navarro, freeing up the DH spot that they could use to give Bautista rest.
Toronto seems to have no money. It’s tough to see them being willing to pick up $9M for an outfielder who is likely at best 1.5 WAR better than their in house options.
yeah, Ethier for Navarro and Ricky Romero just for some yuks.
The Dodgers effectively said to Navarro “don’t let the door hit you on the way out” last time. Publicly. They do not want him back.
K, scrap that. : > )
“The Dodgers had a chance to move him under these terms to the Mariners, Orioles, Tigers…”
How could you possibly know this? Ethier’s name was rumored to be bandied about, sure, but unless you have some inside knowledge, there’s no way to know if the Dodgers had this type of deal available to them.
Textbook example of a player not having much grasp of his own results compared to his contract situation, and not knowing that teams base projections on what he has accomplished in a recent term. I try not to say stuff that sounds like a sports talk radio caller, but in this case, Ethier should just shut up and try to earn his place, knowing the outfield is crowded.
Stupid, stupid, stupid contract.
A’s fans used to get a LOT of grief about Beane trading Ethier as if he was a total stud. Cargo/Holliday aside, as usual whoever questions Beane’s moves usually is proved wrong in the long term.
The fact that Andre Ethier is now, at just almost 33 years old, overpaid and on the downside of his career does not somehow make Billy Beane a genius for giving him up in exchange for a guy who he turned around and dealt 18 months later for a minor league reliever. Ethier produced something like 14 WAR for the Dodgers before he was eligible for free agency.
Ned Colletti being an asshat in 2012 does not negate Beane having made a bad trade in 2006.
I totally disagree. We have to consider all trades in terms of the player’s total long term value. I mean, just look at the Babe Ruth trade. Sure, he helped the Yankees for a while, but then his knees gave out, the guy retired, and he’s been dead for years. His trade value as of 2015 is practically nil, and he’s completely past his prime. Stupid trade by the Yankees. Should have saved the 20k and made their own musical.
Billy Beane makes a lot of bad trades. The Ethier deal was clearly one of them. He also makes a number of good trades. His teams success is an indicator of his overall quality of a GM, but this doesn’t mean one should deny reality and deify the guy. He’s made mistakes or at least, some of his trades resulted in bad outcomes.
Andre Ethier, Alex Guerrero, Brandon League, Brian Wilson… I swear Ned Colletti was a sleeper agent for the Giants.
We’ve already seen an article as to why Alex Guerrero would fit on the Angels. Given a possible suspension of Josh Hamilton, why not Ethier too?
That piece posited the Angels would prefer a right handed bat, but I just don’t think that’s the case. They’re comfortable with Colin Cowgil as a 4th OF and part of a platoon in LF, presumably with a lefty.
I could see Guerrero, Ethier, and 40M for Grant Green and a low-level pitcher. Not much value coming back but a useful salary dump for the Dodgers. All if Hamilton doesn’t play.
The $40M you’re proposing in that deal would mostly go to cover the tax the Angels would have to pay for going over the don’t-call-it-a-salary-cap. That seems… useless.
They wouldn’t go over the cap… That deal is contingent on an absent Hamilton who’s 25M would not be applied toward the cap. Even if it was just half the season the 12M freed up would be plenty.
Additionally, only the money the Angels would owe to the players would apply to the cap. They would not touch the luxury tax in that deal.
No one in their right mind is looking for a free agent of his ceiling who is on a minimum 3/$58M max 4/$71M deal.
Seriously. Its Andre Ethier. He is getting old and he’s lost a lot of what made him valuable. ONLY way they can get rid of him without just eating it all is to package him with one of their top prospects.
Why would anyone want to bail out the Dodgers? Make them eat Ethier’s contract!
Eat all but $18 million of his remaining salary, and dump him for a C or C- prospect. Nobody wants him for 3yrs/$28m.
If a team is desperate enough they’d do it. I would think someone still sees something in Ethier
Contract and morale aside, I think he could fit in well in Toronto, espicaly after the Saunders injury.
especially*
Perhaps a trade of bad assets would work? Baltimore could use another outfielder and they have too many pitchers including an overpaid albatross. Perhaps they could offer Jimenez for Ethier?
You might not like their OFers, but the O’s certainly have plenty of bodies there… Jones, Snider, Pearce, deAza, Lough, Reimold, Parmelee, Delmon Young, and Dariel Alvarez.