With Hunter Pence Out, Giants Have Options
Spring Training statistics might not matter, but injuries can certainly make an impact on a team’s outlook heading into the season. After being hit by a pitch in yesterday’s game against the Chicago Cubs, Hunter Pence is expected to be out six to eight weeks with a broken forearm. Missing the first month of the season is far from a catastrophic loss for the San Francisco Giants as they defend their World Series crown, but if they want to fill Pence’s vacated role from outside the organization, there are multiple teams with too many outfielders.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres, and Cleveland Indians are all teams that should be willing to move outfielders this spring, per Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated. The Dodgers currently have Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Joc Pederson, and Scott Van Slyke in their outfield with Andre Ethier apparently the odd man out. The Dodgers are eager to move Ethier and are reportedly willing to pay around half of the $56 million owed to Ethier over the next three years. A trade with the Dodgers is not impossible for the Giants, but as Dave Cameron recently noted, some rivals rarely trade with each other. The Giants and Dodgers have completed just one trade since 1985, when they traded Mark Sweeney to the Dodgers in August 2007 for a player to be named later that turned into Travis Denker.
Outside of the difficulty of trading with a rival, the Giants current outfield poses problems with taking on a long term deal for a player who expects to start. The Giants currently have an interesting composition of present and future. At 31, Pence is the youngest projected outfield starter for the Giants with Angel Pagan and Nori Aoki expected to start in center field and left field, respectively. Pence is also signed through 2018 and has the contract with the longest duration among the Giants outfielders. He is not the only Giant signed past 2015. Angel Pagan has one more year to go after 2015 and is scheduled to receive $10 million in 2016. The Giants have a club option on Aoki for 2016 at just $5.5 million. It is conceivable that the Giants projected outfield for 2015 will be the same for 2016. The age, term, and relatively small amounts owed to Pagan and Aoki do not preclude a long term solution for the outfield. However, even if Ethier were to cost the Giants under $10 million per year, a three year commitment through his Age-35 season to cover one month of missed time is likely more than the Giants would want to take on.
Similar problems come with the Red Sox outfield situation. Allen Craig is a name that has been mentioned as a possibility. Craig, coming off the worst year in his career, is still owed over $25 million over the next three years. If his bat comes back to 2011-2013 levels when he hit .312/.364/.500 and had a 139 w RC+, a team would find a position for him. Unfortunately, he has never been very adept in the outfield, notwithstanding this catch in the 2011 World Series. His defense makes him a poor fit in the spacious Giants outfield, and with Brandon Belt at first base and no designated hitter option, the Giants are likely not a good fit for Allen Craig.
The Red Sox also have Shane Victorino and Daniel Nava as potential extra outfielders. Victorino is aging, coming off back surgery, and has yet to prove his health. Nava is cheap, though not so young at 32, and trading him does little to solve the Red Sox problems of too many potential starting outfielders as he is already ticketed for a bench role. The Indians have Nick Swisher coming off hip surgery along with Ryan Raburn and David Murphy, but Swisher is still owed seven figures in 2016, Raburn hit .200/.250/.297 in limited time last season, and Murphy has not had a good season since 2012.
After their winter flurry of moves, the Padres appear to have too many outfielders. Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin and Will Venable have all spent time as starting outfielders, but will be relegated to the bench this season in San Diego. The Giants and Padres have completed just one trade in the last 20 years, but do not share the same rivalry status as the Giants and Dodgers. All three outfielders are owed under $10 million for 2015 and only Maybin is owed money in 2016 with an $8.1 million salary and a one million dollar buyout on a $9 million team option. The Padres likely offer the best fit as a trading partner if the Giants are looking to make a deal.
The Giants have plenty of options. Not mentioned in any rumors, but currently sitting on the outside of a starting spot is Gerardo Parra in Milwaukee. They could check in with the Cardinals on Peter Bourjos, although the Cardinals have little reason to give him up making just $1.65 million in the fourth outfielder role and one more season of a cost-controlled arbitration salary in 2016. Here is the list of players mentioned as well as their ZiPS projections for 2015.
| Player | PA | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ethier | 472 | 0.335 | 0.392 | 107 | 1.2 |
| Allen Craig | 506 | 0.314 | 0.403 | 99 | 0.9 |
| Shane Victorino | 402 | 0.317 | 0.393 | 98 | 1.5 |
| Daniel Nava | 455 | 0.339 | 0.368 | 99 | 1.4 |
| Cameron Maybin | 359 | 0.299 | 0.352 | 87 | 0.9 |
| Carlos Quentin | 276 | 0.337 | 0.432 | 123 | 0.8 |
| Will Venable | 469 | 0.298 | 0.385 | 95 | 0.7 |
| Nick Swisher | 489 | 0.316 | 0.386 | 102 | 0.4 |
| Ryan Raburn | 268 | 0.273 | 0.367 | 82 | -0.3 |
| David Murphy | 453 | 0.316 | 0.388 | 101 | 0.8 |
| Gerardo Parra | 566 | 0.323 | 0.399 | 98 | 2.1 |
| Peter Bourjos | 311 | 0.310 | 0.391 | 99 | 1.7 |
There are reasons that none of the above players have starting jobs in 2015. Some are injured and some have been ineffective, and both problems have been true for many on that list. One other player is a possibility to see extra playing time.
| Player | PA | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregor Blanco | 443 | 0.324 | 0.344 | 96 | 1.0 |
The Giants already have a capable fourth outfielder in Gregor Blanco. They also have him signed through 2016. Eight weeks is a really long time to be missing a team’s best player in July. In March, when the game do not count, eight weeks matters less. As the next month moves forward, Pence will see his timeline move up. In another couple weeks, he will be just four to six weeks from returning. By Opening Day, missing Pence for two to four weeks seems far less dire. Most of the trade options are marginal upgrades over a replacement player for just one month of the season, and they might not be upgrades at all over Gregor Blanco. The Giants still have another month to evaluate their needs in the outfield, but at this point the move that makes the most sense is no move at all.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
I am sure I am misunderstanding you. But it sounded to me like you referred to Pence as the Giants’ best player. If so, Mrs. Posey’s son wants to speak with you.
Just a general statement. I do not believe Pence is better than Posey.
Well, Lee would still want to speak with you.
Belt. Outfield. Now!
Posey to first and belt to the outfield is one option. That allows the Susac vs Sanchez battle to continue for a few more weeks to see who should be backup. Or they stick with blanco, who has more than proven himself as a durable and acceptable outfielder when needed (see 2013, 2014).
I agree that the Giants shouldn’t make a trade since Pence will likely only miss the first month, but I wouldn’t count on Pagan lasting all that long before he misses some time, too. He is coming off back surgery and says he feels great, but has already missed time with a neck issue this spring and has missed significant time 2 years running. They could weather a little bit of down time from him as well, though.
Yeah, teams regularly allow uber prospects to linger in the minors for the first month of the season and it’s generally supported by the progressive mafia even though it can be counter-productive to what the team is trying to accomplish on the field.
So this should be a minor inconvenience if he’s only out a month.
Pence is their best player… in the outfield.
I think the Astros could provide some solid options, too. I doubt they’d trade Rasmus right after signing him this off-season, but Robbie Grossman and Jake Marisnick (if you take advantage of his defense in center) could likely provide short term value without adding salary and could slide into a #4 outfielder role in the future.
It’s one month. They don’t need to do anything. Justin Maxwell will be fine. Maybe they’ll throw Matt Duffy out there too.
The Astros have a Matt Duffy you can borrow!
Did you talk to Eno Sarris? Andre Ethier is available.
Lol.
Seriously, I agree with Michael ^ Belt to left field, start getting Posey used to first, starting catching job to Andrew Susac. That list above, especially Ethier, is uninspiring, and I doubt the Brewers would want to part with Parra as a really good fourth outfielder.
If Gregor Blanco is their best option, my Giants are in trouble.
I agree. Blanco is terrible and has shown that he is not a an everyday MLB regular.
Are you kidding? Dude put up 2 WAR as a fourth outfielder last year. He does everything the team asks of him and has filled any number of roles for them the past three years. Sorry the fourth outfielder for your favorite team that just won the World Series only averages a few wins above replacement. Must be hard.
And that’s 2 WAR in 444 PA. Over the past 3 years, Blanco has hit at least 2 WAR every year and averaged 3 WAR/600. If that’s not an “everyday MLB regular”, your standards are quite high.
The thing is we are only talking a 1-1.5 months most likely. There isn’t a player on the market that will provide any significant upgrade in the time span.
I LOVE Cameron Maybin, but over a month in a depth format: Is Maybin THAT different from having Gary Brown on the bench. Worst comes to worse and Blanco gets injured and you field an an above average CF with elite speed and a bad bat for nothing. With Maybin: You field and above average CF with elite speed and an average bat.
Is a .2 WAR difference doing to kill the Giants? Probably not. Better risk than giving up a piece of note.
If either of Venable or Maybin are cheap enough they would be great as a 4th OF after Pence comes back, and could even prove more productive than Aoki.
And the added insurance on a Pagan injury would be pretty nice as well.
Probably wont come as cheap as you think. Padres aren’t gonna do a cheap favor for a division rival in a year both are trying to win now. They will be looking for something in return that helps their own win curve in a tangible enough fashion. (Like the Kemp trade)
In other words. Looking for an over-pay from what Venable/Maybin’s trade value actually is.
Teams have survived the loss of one of their better players before for up to one month without hurting their chances of getting into the playoffs. And Pence is currently projected to miss 2-4 weeks of the beginning of the season, not the 4 weeks many have noted. Plus, he has broken bones before and noted that he has healed up early before. The Giants are not going to trade to cover roughly two to three weeks of missed time.
I think the most significant development his injury provides is to push Bochy to use Aoki in leadoff and Pagan batting third, which pushes Belt to batting fifth in Pence’s place. That is a better lineup than having Pagan leadoff and Aoki batting 7th. And the lineup calculator agrees.
And should Pagan goes down again, mid-season, the Giants will probably be OK with Blanco in CF because in previous seasons, they were forced to bat Blanco at leadoff initially, where the pressure gets to him and he hits poorly. But with Aoki around, Bochy can put The White Shark at the bottom of the order, where the pressure does not get to him, and he can be himself and hit within his abilities. His batting line down in the order is very close to what Pagan puts up, close enough that his superior defense would close that gap. So the Giants are good there as well, Sabean closed that leadoff backup hole with the acquisition of Aoki.
With Hunter Pence Out the Giants Have Options, but they’re going to Sit Pat and Be Just Fine. Unless Huddy and Peavy break down and Cain has another bad year, in which case it won’t really matter what happens in right field in San Fran this year.
Gregor Blanco will be fine, but they’ll need depth. And while Giants fans will kill me, Having Gary Brown on the roster wouldn’t he the worst thing. At worst you have a good CF defender on the bench that could be a excellent pinch runner. He is by no means good anymore, but is a decent 4th OF.