Finding More Work for the Dodgers’ Other Great Catcher
While so much recent focus on the Dodgers has (rightfully) centered on their recent stretch of poor play, how about this ray of sunshine: the club is on the cusp of receiving a nine-win season — the sort of value one can only dependably expect from Mike Trout — from a lone source this year.
Surprisingly, the player responsible for this unusually high level of production isn’t Corey Seager or Justin Turner or even Clayton Kershaw. It’s not even a single player, at all, but a combination of two players at one position: catchers Yasmani Grandal and Austin Barnes. The pair has accounted for 8.1 BWARP, the Baseball Prospectus version of wins above replacement that also accounts for pitch framing.
I’ve made my affection for Grandal’s talents well known. But it’s his younger backup — who’s becoming less of a backup and more of a timeshare partner — who’s opening eyes and winning over my heart this season.
Grandal has been worth 4.4 BWARP this season, while Barnes has posted a 3.7 mark in just 225 plate appearances. Over the course of 450 plate appearances (roughly average for a catcher), that equates to 7.4 wins, a total exceeded only by Buster Posey last year among catchers and by just five other players total.
Would he continue this over the course of a full season? Perhaps not. But it’s an interesting performance from a player who’s exhibited a combination of excellent plate discipline, contact ability, and receiving skills. Among MLB hitters with at least 220 plate appearances this season, he ranks 11th in walk rate (15.1%) and 16th in zone contact rate (93%). It’s roughly the same profile he possessed during his minor-league career.
He’s been consistent throughout the season, too:
I was asked in Monday’s chat if Gary Sanchez has displaced Buster Posey as the game’s top offensive catcher. In Sanchez’s first 162 career games, he hit an astounding 50 home runs. But according to wRC+, Sanchez isn’t even the best offensive catcher in his first full season in 2017. That distinction is held by Barnes, who towed a whopping wRC+ of 140 into play Thursday. Grandal, after posting a 121 wRC+ last season, has a mark of 98 this season.
Barnes is warranting more and more playing time.
While Grandal is one of the best framers in baseball, if not the best receiver, Barnes is also excellent. The former ranks second in framing per-game value among catchers who have received at least 1,000 pitches this season, while the latter ranks fifth, according to StatCorner.
Over the last week of play, Barnes has made three starts while Grandal has made three, as well.
Entering play Thursday, Barnes had made 99 plate appearances in the second half of the season and produced a .309/.434/.383 slash line. What’s also notable is that Barnes has a 15.2 % walk rate in the second half and a 11.1% strikeout rate. Grandal has had 161 second-half plate appearances and has slumped, batting .207. In the first half, Barnes recorded 126 plate appearances and Grandal made 280.
So Grandal enjoyed nearly 70% of the playing time in the first half, but that number has fallen to 62% in the second. The Dodgers had used Barnes to spell Grandal against some left-handed pitching, but Barnes’ role continues to grow. In fact, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times this week that Barnes could become the club’s primary catcher in the postseason.
“If you’re looking to win 11 games in October, there needs to be consideration of who gives you the best chance to win that particular game,” manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday. “Austin deserves that consideration. He’s earned it.”
Barnes is batting .297 with six home runs and an .887 on-base-plus-slugging percentage, the highest of any National League catcher with at least 200 plate appearances.
In September, Grandal has one hit in 30 at-bats, with 16 strikeouts.
“I fully expect Yasmani to get on track,” Roberts said.
In other words, this 27-year-old rookie is playing so well that he could become a postseason starter for the National League’s best team over a player who has routinely been one of baseball’s top catchers.
But Barnes is exceptional in a number of ways. He is, for example, an excellent athlete who has also played some in the middle infield. Barnes has recorded 49 innings at second base this season, posting a 10 UZR/150 and +1 DRS in a limited sample there.
The Dodgers’ weakest positions according to FanGraphs WAR are second base (2.5), right field (2.5), and first base (2.1). Cody Bellinger has turned around the club’s first-base production since his late-April promotion. But perhaps Barnes could see more time at second base, where Logan Forsythe has been serviceable but not spectacular since being acquired from Tampa Bay in the offseason.
Grandal and Barnes are two of the Dodgers’ best position players. Ideally, a club would find a way to get both in the lineup more often. And thanks to Barnes’ versatility and athleticism, there’s perhaps a path to do just that.
With Grandal set to become a free agent after the 2018 season in an industry that now values framing, the 27-year-old Barnes might be the future starter at the position. Maybe even the immediate future. But in the short term, there’s also a way to get Barnes and Grandal on the field, together, more often. Even the Dodgers, leading the NL in wins despite their skid, need every bit of extra value they can find.
The Dodgers ought to find some more time, somewhere, for Austin Barnes.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
Barnes has some really wonky splits numbers. He has actually faced more lefties than righties this year so he is being heavily platooned. However, he has actually hit righties (.415 wOBA) significantly better than lefties (.355). BUT, he also has a .429 BABIP against righties and .250 vs. lefties so you would assume that will even out some. BUT, he hits lefties for quite a bit more power – .220 ISO v lefties to .126 against righties.
For his career, the numbers level out some and he has basically no platoon splits but the weird BABIP and ISO trends with lefties and righties is still there.
The whole thing is kind of a weird mish-mash of somewhat contradictory stats that to me scream out SSS weirdness that will surely sort itself out but it’s not clear in what way.
Obligatory interjection that platoon splits take more than a year to stabilize, and so there’s little to learn from 220 total PA.
The platoon is due to grandad being a switch hitter who is awful right handed. Barnes as backup mostly got starts vs grandals bad side.
Grandal has historically been just fine batting righty – career wRC+ of 106 versus 116 batting lefty. Even this year the split is only 17 points (83 versus 100).
But I’m not arguing that Barnes shouldn’t be playing versus LHP – he absolutely should.
Interestingly, there are many position battles for the juggernaut Dodgers on the precipice of the postseason, including whom to start in CF, 2B, LF, and C and where to play Bellinger and Taylor.
Fighting for playing time are Grandal and Barnes at catcher, Granderson and Pederson in CF, and also Gonzalez and Logan Forsythe. Where the Dodgers choose to play Cody Bellinger will be a tough decision, and one of the former will be squeezed out from the starting lineup.
They might have a wild platoon in the playoffs, in which their lineup versus lefties may include Barnes (C), Kike Hernandez (CF), and Forsythe (2B) in place of Grandal, Pederson, and Gonzalez.
Something tells me that Sanchez is the superior hitter of the two. Sanchez has an wRC+ of 144 for his career vs 121 for Barnes (in over twice the amount of PA, too). Barnes is on a nice run, don’t get me wrong. But his 140 wRC+ comes up short vs Sanchez’ 170; which he had during his tear last season. Should be a fair comparison, though, considering the PA were almost identical (225 vs 229). But if you’d rather compare this season, Sanchez out hit Barnes 142 to 140 during their 225 PA (Barnes’ total) to start the season. Sanchez has hit 124 in 248 PA since, so Barnes does own the better mark for the year. But let us revisit this when Barnes accumulates another ~250 PA. I’d wager Barnes hits under that 124 clip; that mark could easily classify as a prolonged slump for Sanchez. Barnes looks to have his work cut out for him, as DepthCharts projects him as a league average hitter going forward.
sanchez though is beyond terrible behind the plate though. I feel sorry for him sometimes when i watch him, just doesnt look good back there. He’s down there with evan gattis behind the plate with framing according to statcast and is costing his team runs and is pretty much last among regular starters in MLB in framing. He also has 15 PB which is more than Yadi, Posey, and Perez have combined. He needs to change positions or become a DH in my oppinion.
BP says he is 11th in MLB in Framing Runs Above Average.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899536
The statcorner score for Barnes: 6.5 Sanchez: -2.4. That’s just pitch framing but it’s a big difference.
Okay, I love Barnes and Sanchez both and I don’t think that’s the right way to frame it (pun intendend). On a per game basis, it is Sanchez -0.21 vs Barnes 1.20. Sanchez is not a *bad* framer, he is an average framer while Barnes is an excellent one. This is a mark in favor of Barnes, not as much “against” Sanchez except he’s being compared to Barnes.
If you have to go through all of that to try and explain why Sanchez is better barnes that speaks volumes at what barnes has done
“Something tells me that Sanchez is the superior hitter of the two.”
Thats the extent of me proclaiming Sanchez is better than Barnes.
And clearly no bias whatsoever coming from your handle of “Dodgerfan711”.
You’re right. I should’ve kept it simple for you, and in only so many words. Sanchez>Barnes, as a hitter. Why? Well, just because. That’s why. It’s a lot easier to make that assumption without showing statistical evidence. I should’ve done this a lot earlier. The only thing stopping me was, well, the fact that this is a baseball site with an emphasis on statistics.
Yeah, the only thing Sanchez really has going for him defensively right now, is his rocket arm. His troubles behind the plate seem a little unexpected. He received fairly high praise for his defense when he was coming up through the minors. It’s a good thing he is a very special hitter. If he doesn’t clean up his mess anytime soon, maybe he sees more reps at 1st and/or DH? That actually could be beneficial for his bat; without all the wear-n-tear from him catching so much. That’s a scary thought; an even better, Gary Sanchez at the plate.
Incorrect. Most thought that Gary Sanchez would not stick behind the plate at the major league level and it was only significant defensive improvement in 2015-2016 that got him this opportunity.
by Kiley McDaniel – January 26, 2015: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-new-york-yankees/
by Dan Farnsworth – March 16, 2016 – http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-new-york-yankees/
I wasn’t suggesting he was a finished product early in his career and subsequently had nothing to work on. Maybe, I should have phrased it as “he received fairly high praise for what he had become?” Does that change the meaning? The notes you linked (Fangraphs), noted his marked improvements behind the plate, other outlets did too (BaseballAmerica). He seemed to have righted the ship; so to speak. So did he not receive fairly high praise for what he had become? Did he not answer the questions that were asked of him as he climbed the minors? That is where I stated that it seemed a little unexpected for his defensive troubles. All I meant is, he had cleaned it up, as he climbed the ranks.
Statcorner has him as a slightly below average framer, and because of the arm and the fact that he plays catcher he has a positive defensive value. Why is everyone is trying to move him out from behind the plate? Unless it’s to save his lower body or because you have a hole at 1st/DH and a better defensive catcher, I disagree. He’s fine for now.
I think you’re right that Sanchez is the better hitter. But Sanchez is a beast. Barnes as a league-average hitter is still a really valuable player.
I have an over-under bet with my friend on Cody Bellinger’s finish in NL MVP voting this year. I set it at 7.5, and he was confident enough to easily take the “under” (meaning better than 7.5 finish). I think he might be right. So a guy who probably has a >50% chance of a top-7 MVP finish is so weighed down by Adrian Gonzalez that together they comprise the worst position on the Dodgers? Ok.
Gary Sanchez is 12th on the trade value list. Barnes [might be] about as good offensively and is pretty likely better defensively.
Thanks Dee.
Why are we using StatCorner to make any kind of framing analysis? Unless the method used has been updated and the explanation page is wrong, which I hope is the case, because this is what it says:
“I want to stress first that the values below should not be treated as gospel. As mentioned, the strike zone needs to be more finely determined and the methods used to arrive at these catching numbers are not designed to isolate only the catcher’s influence. The catcher is simply used as a grouping point. There’s no attempt to control for the pitchers, the umpires, the counts, or anything other than which side the hitter stood on.”
I don’t think a framing analysis that ignores the pitcher and umpire and count can be used for anything. I mean, c’mon.
lol you can downvote me all you want – StatCorner has the worst catcher in baseball as James McCann at -28.4 framing runs, and yet Baseball Prospectus has James McCann at -3.8 framing runs and DRS -2 framing runs. That’s a pretty colossal difference, so hey- maybe the pitcher, umpire, and count heavily influence called strikes, yeah? Not sure why you would even look at StatCorner when Prospectus’ numbers are free to look at, unless fangraphs staff aren’t allowed to.
Then again, DRS was updated to include framing YEARS ago and fangraphs is still using the old metric (gotta go to baseball-reference to see a catcher’s actual DRS) so they’re not exactly cutting edge here. I think catcher fWAR is still using only stolen base runs and positional adjustment and nothing else, which is hilarious.