Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/15/17

September 15, 2017

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: I appreciate you and our Friday chats, Jeff. Last year we had the Cubs storyline enthrall us all. What narrative this year could bring us some kind of excitement like last years?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: It’s the Indians, right?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: It’s obviously the Indians

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Longest existing title drought, modern-record win streak, smaller-market operation, coming back from one of the most devastating World Series losses imaginable

9:05	CamdenWarehouse: Is there anywhere the eye test is more misleading than outfield defense?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Is it that misleading? I personally feel like it usually goes mostly according to what the numbers say, although I suppose I’m biased by being mostly aware of the numbers in the first place

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the answer is Fernando Rodney. Seems like a nightmare every single time. Still typically gets the job done

9:07	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Was the Indians’ “Hatteberg Moment” the Lindor double or the Bruce double?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: I feel like it was the Lindor double. I get the argument against it, but when Bruce hit his double, you could already almost assume the win. When Lindor came up, the Indians’ win expectancy was 11%, and he promptly fell behind 1-and-2. Then he hit a ball to the opposite field just barely out of the reach of one of the best defensive LF in the modern era

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: The Lindor double is far more memorable, for all of its nooks and crannies

9:10	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Please note that the Fangraphs playoff predictions seem to be off. The Nationals have a 100% Postseason chance with a 7.5% World Series win, while the Cubs have an 88.8% playoff chance with a 12.2% World Series win. Seems like a flaw in the projections, right?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: Seems like something must be slightly off — for example, we give the Nationals a 36% chance of winning the World Series, *if they make the World Series*. That’s too low. But we do currently have the Nationals projected as worse than the Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, etc, in large part because Bryce Harper is still absent

9:14

Ross: Is Chris Archer basically Jeff Samardzija with a better contract? Durable, good stuff, good FIP, lots of K’s, but the results always leave you disappointed. Running an ERA over 4 for the second straight year. Basically, someone who’s always disappointing because he’s not as good as it seems he should be.

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I think, with Archer, there’s a little more bad luck. His runners-on splits appear more unlucky, while with Samardzija, there’s more of a hint of worse performance. So while there are some parallels, I think Archer is better here, and deserves a lower ERA

9:15

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Remember when the Diamondbacks intentionally walked Barry Bonds with the bases loaded in the 9th inning to face Brent Mayne? How often do you think Brent Mayne thinks about when the Diamondbacks intentionally walked Barry Bonds with the bases loaded in the 9th inning to face Brent Mayne?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine you feel too bad as a former baseball player when you reflect on a particular situation and understand that the other team saw you as less of a threat than God

9:16	CLE: Jeff, in your opinion, did the Indians set the record last night? Or, is the record still 26 games?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: The record is still 26 games, but on the other hand, who could give a shit what happened 101 years ago

9:17	SP Jeremy Jeffress: First career start today, going for 3ip or 50 pitches. Am I a sneaky source of good innings or an implosion?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: You have a 5.53 FIP

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: You’re a very conspicuous source of hittable baseballs

9:18	Babe Lincoln: Best chat of the week

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I certainly think so

9:18	Stuafoo: Is there any advantage at all for a batter to stand at the very front of the box? Maybe you catch a breaking ball before it has a chance to fully drop? Doesn’t seem like that would overcome the reduced reaction time, but it’s been a curiosity for me. Does anyone ever do this?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: Whatever advantage you gain in reducing the break difference between pitches is indeed probably given away via the reduced flight time. So I figure it’s better to stand further back; give yourself an extra split second, and assume you can tell the difference between one pitch type and another

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe, if you’re really vulnerable to the low-away slider, you should move up. But I doubt it

9:20	Red: Is Judge back?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like it

9:22

Jack: Should baseball make the “Jacoby Ellsbury rule” and change catcher’s interference? The spirit of the rule seems to be that it is always the catcher’s fault when a batter’s swing hits his glove, but if someone like Ellsbury has this happen way more often, then clearly it’s not all on the catcher. This is a pretty garbage way to reach base, especially if there are certain players whose swing allows them to take advantage of the rule way more often than others. I understand that even with Ellsbury this is still something that only happens occasionally, but still, why not just call it no pitch?

9:23

Jeff Sullivan: It’s so uncommon, and it would be so easy to avoid — just scoot back another few inches. Ellsbury doesn’t *want* to reach on interference. It’s never on purpose. I think you need to preserve the rule to avoid other kinds of catcher interference, and then you just figure it will self-correct if it ever threatens to spiral out of control

9:24

HappyFunBall: Just read your team WAR article. Good stuff as usual! I wonder a bit about the final table though. I can’t speak to every club, but just in watching the Nationals every day I feel like it’s misleading. The Nats have a FAR better bench than they did in 2016, as evidenced by guys like Taylor, Difo, Goodwin, etc … stepping in for some pretty significant injured starters this year. I wonder if a comparison of ordinal rankings doesn’t well capture what happens when the guys you “expect” to be top-10 vs 11-25 don’t necessarily end up there due to how playing time really shakes out?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, something gets lost when you end up with so many injury replacements. The Nationals have the best depth they’ve had in a while, probably, but the best depth pieces have had to turn into starting pieces

9:25	Moonlight Graham: So on your August 22 Effectively Wild podcast, it seemed like Ben, Sam, and you were enjoying “the best Oregon had to offer” in terms of plant life. Is that fair to say? I can take my answer off the air (and I’m not a cop, either!)

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: No one was high. We had collectively slept about three hours over the previous two days

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I was responsible for 2.5 of those hours

9:28

Guest: So, with Cleveland holding an AL win-streak record that could stand for a long time, and approaching an MLB record that could stand even longer, can fans, writers, and commentators forcibly rename the ball club? Could we all just refer to them as Cleveland and refuse to refer to them by their official team name?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: They haven’t even gotten rid of Chief Wahoo yet. You think you’re going to make progress changing the very nickname of the franchise itself?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Even if you did, they’d still be the Indians today. And when we refer to historical baseball players, we still refer to their occasionally offensive nicknames.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Dummy Hoy is still Dummy Hoy. That wouldn’t catch on in 2017

9:31	Babe Lincoln: Ever hiked the Badlands? Was just there and it’s amazing. Highly recommend doing a back country hike to Deer Haven. I’ve never done anything good in PNW, though. Any recommendations?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: On the list but haven’t yet had the chance. Dave and I were going to swing through on his road trip last year but then we had to develop a different itinerary

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: So many options in the PNW. I love getting up on any of the big mountains, especially Hood, but if you want the most bang for your buck, you might set your sights on the Tatoosh Range, just south of Rainier

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Also couldn’t recommend Mount Margaret backcountry enough

9:33	Twoseamers: what would Rhys have to do to overcome the difference in PA compared to Bellinger

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Basically can’t. This is just this year’s version of Sanchez vs. Fulmer

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Even if Hoskins caught up in WAR somehow, the voters would still prefer Bellinger’s full season

9:35	Julio Pepper: Byron Buxton is running a 250 wRC+ on bunts. While there are diminishing returns to doing more of anything in baseball, it feels like Byron Buxton isn’t at that point. Should he be bunting a lot more?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: His wRC+ on bunts last year was 78

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: He’s already third in baseball this year in bunt hits. I think he could probably stand to bunt a little more often but now that he can actually hit, it’s more something to keep in his back pocket

9:36	Cpglen01: How great of a story is Tommy Pham, he has been incredible this year

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: 9/10 great story

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The two players who have outperformed their preseason projected WAR the most: Aaron Judge, and then Tommy Pham

9:37	The Average Sports Fan: The Cubs end the season with a 3 game series vs the Reds. Will those games matter?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not

9:39

Tony Plush: A lot of people seem to think Ohtani won’t be a 2-way player. But if you’re like, the Royals, what do you have to lose by saying, “hell, you can start in the outfield 4 out of 5 days!” Seems like someone will go there, because more injury risk to have him is a lot better than watching him on the Yankees. And then, doesn’t seem like a stretch that he goes to the Yanks and says, “well, I’d love to play for you but KC will put me in the OF…” And then boom, negotiations! Worst case scenario he fails and you talk to him about giving it up or gets injured and you talk to him about giving it up.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Basically no way any team would ever allow Ohtani to play the field right before or after his starts

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: And also, if you’re Ohtani, it’s best not to take front offices at their word, since ultimately all plans will be determined by performance. Some team could say it’ll play Ohtani in the field but you can’t really get that in legal writing

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know how much of this is going to come down to what teams say about their plans. I think it’ll be up to Ohtani to identify who’s likely to present the best opportunity. That’s presumably going to be in the National League

9:42	David: Do you think it likely that Darvish will get a larger contract than he would have otherwise this winter due to teams hoping it will help them get Ohtani?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I want to say no but I could actually see him negotiating for an extra few million

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Which is wild!

9:43	AndyBaesball: Hi Jeff! The Cardinals keep winning, but so does MIL and CHC. Think StL pulls it out?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Major problem with the wild card: the Rockies have 15 games left, and 12 are against the Padres, Giants, and Marlins

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: So maybe better to think about the division. Brewers have four left against the Cubs. Cardinals have seven

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: If the Cardinals can win five of those, look out. As much fun as the Brewers are, they still are a rebuilding team without Jimmy Nelson

9:45	CT: Are you really 6’9″?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: What? No.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: 6’5, and thanks to my job, I slouch

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Hold on a couple minutes, phone call

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: All right, should be good now

9:48	Brett W: Great win distribution article. The Reds and Marlins jumped out to me. Shouldn’t top-heavy teams with losing records always be trying to move those assets?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: Two approaches to take. One, like the recent White Sox, you can make an effort to build up your depth. Or two, like the recent White Sox, you can sell the top talent off and rebuild

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: With the Reds and Marlins, it’s a little more complicated. The White Sox had the chance for a more “clean” rebuild. The Marlins are trying to avoid doing that whole process over again, for ownership reasons. And the Reds are being led in large part by Joey Votto, who’s not the easiest star player to move

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: They’ve also tried to move Zack Cozart, but they’ve been unsuccessful

9:50	Bubba: If my questions are sometimes answered in chats, but my comments on articles are never displayed after I get the “pending moderation” message, does that mean i’m blocked somehow?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Very, very few commenters are blocked, so either there’s something else going on, or you have a history of leaving some terrible and terribly offensive comments

9:52	hanna: In the most recent EF episode you spoke about how the difference between 28.00-27.00 ERA and @2.00-1.00 ERA and how those differences are not the same value. I’m taking an intro to stats class this year and am wondering if that changes ERA from a ratio stat to an ordinal stat.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Still a ratio stat. It’s just that the effect of ERA changes, in terms of win expectancy

9:53	Chucky B: O’s need to blow this thing up, right?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like 2018 is going to resemble 2017. Try one more time and think about selling at the deadline

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Britton has done nothing to rebuild his value. That’s a problem

9:54	Mark: We could talk about the Twins, they’ve been fun too.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: And they have seven more games against the Tigers. Pretty remarkable season they’ve had

9:55

Jordan: Not that I want to talk about him because I think the topic has become a little played out but with respect to Otani and pay structure I just cant for the life of me figure out why he would have any restrictions, he is a product that is direct to the majors, teams will not have to put him through the minors like you do with 99% of int FA’s and his old team is getting more money then him. Doesn’t make sense that he’s being restricted… so stupid

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I hate it too

9:55	Dylan: Who is this years most impressive rookie? Judge, Bellinger, and Hoskins have been historic

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Judge, no question. Hoskins is incredible but Judge is at 6.4 WAR. Huge credit for playing time

9:56	David: Will the Indians ever lose again?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Not until Game 1 of the playoffs

9:57	Jeff: Be nice to see Cleveland vs astros. Don’t know if that lines up?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Need a Red Sox surge. Or you can just hope for the ALCS

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I like every possible AL matchup. Even Indians vs. Twins. Twins!

9:58	NH: Do you think that when Otani comes to the MLB he’ll start in the majors right off the bat? or can we expect him to spend a little time in the minors getting acclimated to American baseball?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: He’s going to go straight to the majors, but it would be absolutely hysterical, and awful, and justifiable, if his team sent him to the minors for a couple weeks to get that one extra year of control

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: It happened to Kris Bryant and in theory it could happen to Ohtani

9:59	v2micca: And chance Cluber manages to steal the Cy Young away from Sale on the strength of his September?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I’d say at this point that Kluber is the favorite