Fitting Jung-Ho Kang in Pittsburgh
Last Friday, for Fox, I wrote something of a primer article on South Korean shortstop Jung-Ho Kang. I tried to make sure the timing coincided with an announcement, but instead, it just coincided with the closing of the posting window. We had to wait all weekend to find out which team put in the high bid, and now, Monday, we’ve got our answer: the Pirates won the bidding process for Kang, submitting a figure just north of $5 million. Now those same Pirates have an exclusive negotiating window, following the same process that Japan recently did away with. Reports say Kang is looking for about $5 million a year over four years.
The Pirates haven’t said much of anything about this, aside from an acknowledgment of the fact that they’ll be negotiating now. And because of the way this works, there is some possibility that the Pirates simply put in the high bid to block a rival. That’s not very likely. A bid intended to block someone probably would’ve been higher than $5 million, because that’s not actually very much money. The odds of this being a block aren’t 0%, but if we assume that the Pirates are serious about getting Kang locked up, then we’re free to think about the various possibilities. How would Kang fit in in Pittsburgh?
If you just glance at it, this is a strange maneuver. The Pirates have Jordy Mercer at shortstop, and he’s been better than you think. There’s Neil Walker at second base, and he’s an above-average regular. Josh Harrison is taking over third base after a breakout 2014, and Pedro Alvarez will be slugging from first, with Corey Hart offering right-handed protection. Obviously, the outfield is more or less full, and the Pirates recently added both Pedro Florimon and Sean Rodriguez. Florimon is a utility glove. Rodriguez is a utility bat.
The Pirates don’t appear to have an opening. The Pirates, also, aren’t a team that makes a habit of spending more than they need to. Whatever Kang costs will probably be more than the Pirates would like to invest in a bench player. But I think the move has pretty clear upside, so this could be a pure value play. The Pirates could set themselves up to make a trade. Or they could just set themselves up to be deeper, in the immediate and in the future. On the one hand, the infield right now is full. On the other hand, almost everyone has question marks.
Florimon’s never hit. Rodriguez has obvious holes in his game. Alvarez’s bat might be going backward. Walker’s had some problems with his back. At the best of times, Mercer’s simply acceptable. And as good as Harrison just was, previous to 2014 he was almost out of the league. There’s room here for more depth, in the form of a 27-year-old shortstop, and his ultimate contract terms shouldn’t be meaningfully different from those recently agreed to by Zach Duke.
Every contract is a risk. Given the Pirates’ budget, they can’t afford to take expensive risks. In Kang, they’ll soon begin negotiating with perhaps the best all-around position player from the KBO. In the absolute worst-case scenario, where Kang does literally nothing in the majors, the Pirates would be out something like Jose Tabata money. That, they can accept. And what if Kang is better than that? What if he’s good enough to be an actual regular? Even if things don’t fit perfectly in 2015, Kang would be signing for multiple years.
It’s clear from the winning bid how Kang is perceived, league-wide. If teams believed he were a starter, the bid would’ve been at least triple this. No hitter has ever come over from the KBO, and baseball teams don’t seem to think any are good enough to make an impact. But, some of that is internal scouting. Several teams have seen Kang play. And some of that is simply caution, because Kang is unprecedented. In some ways it’s a blind risk. Ichiro Suzuki’s first contract with the Mariners was for three years and $14 million.
This is an opportunity for the Pirates to take advantage of the uncertainly around a pioneer. We’re seeing prices for Cuban players go up, because they’re having more and more success. They’re not the bargain they were, because teams aren’t so skeptical anymore. There are valid reasons to be skeptical of Kang, but, if you’ll allow me:
What Kang might be is a legitimate, average defensive shortstop. What Kang might be is powerful, from the right side. The odds of him being both are limited, but if he were certain to be both, he’d cost a fortune. He can be worse and still valuable, and I figure that’s what the Pirates are seeing. There aren’t many opportunities for the Pirates to get ahead of the market. They’re happy to take this risk.
Here’s Ben Badler, with an educated opinion:
Scouts I spoke with on Kang said he has a chance to be a nice bench bat/utility man. Posting fee reflects that.
— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) December 22, 2014
Here’s Dan, with numbers:
ZiPS has Kang at 230/299/389, 93 OPS+ in Pittsburgh. WAR depends on how the defense shakes out. If -5, it’s 1.5 WAR in 498 PA. — Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) December 22, 2014
The ZiPS figure is practically a guess. We don’t have a lot of data points within the KBO. But if you’d like, you could think about it like this, simplistically: Eric Thames just slugged in the KBO at a level similar to Kang. In the majors, Thames had a 96 wRC+. He posted a WAR of 0, because he was a bad defensive corner outfielder. What if you got Thames-level offense from an infielder with versatility?
Funny thing — you might end up with something similar to Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez is going on 30, being almost exactly two years older than Kang. He has a career 88 wRC+, with decent power but too many strikeouts. He has significant experience at a number of positions. Rodriguez has been worth six wins, or just under two per 600 plate appearances. Rodriguez now might be on the downside of his career. Still, the Pirates are poised to give him a couple million dollars. Kang profiles similar to Rodriguez, but with what I’d say is greater upside. With Sean Rodriguez, you know what you’re getting. With Jung-Ho Kang, maybe you’re getting Rodriguez, or maybe the possible best player from South Korea will rise to the level of better competition.
On Kang, the market has spoken. The high bid was about $5 million, and that’s meaningful. No player has yet done what he’s trying to do. A number of teams right now have weaknesses around the infield, and still they didn’t beat the Pirates’ bid. But the market’s always low on the unproven, and Kang is the first of his ilk with a chance to prove. So the Pirates will look to pay him something like Jose Tabata money, or Zach Duke money, and while the immediate fit isn’t obvious, room can be made, tomorrow or a year down the road. Maybe somebody gets hurt or gets worse. Or maybe Kang looks like a fine infielder with right-handed pop. It’s never very hard to find room for that.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
FWIW, OLIVER likes him more than ZiPS according to Brian (on Bucs Dugout). Said he had his OBP at .340.
If Kang can post a .340 OBP with moderate power and even passable defense, he would be an asset worth far more than $5 million a year.
which would be awesome for Pirates fans.
The $5M is just a one-time posting fee that his Korean team will get if a contract is signed. The Pirates and Kang have yet to agree to a contract, but it will probably be for more than $5M/yr.
“Reports say Kang is looking for about $5 million a year over four years.”
-The article you just read.
It was actually a .350 wOBA I think. 255/331/416 triple-slash (I think the SLG is 416, what he actually wrote was 46).
.340 wOBA I meant.
shoot, you may be correct there.
…implying a .340 wOBA, let alone from a 2B, is not good in the current run environment?
I think the projection was a .340 woba, not obp
I tend to rely a bit too much on the eye test, but I don’t have much more to go by in Kang Jung-Ho’s case. He swings hard and can make solid contact, so he should be able to hit for some power. He definitely has a strong throng arm, which should help his apparently limited range. So he definitively has some tools.
My concern is the giant leg-kick. Asian players seem to rely on a strange (to my western eye) leg movement, but it never stopped Ichiro or Hideki from hitting. I am not sure Kang will be able to get around on upper 90s fastballs (which are more common then ever these days) with that leg-kick. If he strikes out 21% of the time in the KBO, I am worried he may strike out 31% of the time in the NL.
If the Bucs wind up signing him for (e.g.) 4 years at $5 million per, they would not really be taking much risk. That is not much money even for the Pirates these days.
How many shortstops even have the potential to hit 20 HR a year?
“Throng arm”? seriously – I don’t know how this happens. I simply cannot type on the Samsung Galaxy keyboard, and I always forget to proof read. Sorry for my sloppy spelling – I blame my oversized, clumsy fingers.
Regardless… As a Pirates fan, I think it would be a great move if the Bucs sign Kang Jung-Ho. A team that plays with such a disadvantage in its finances needs to occasionally take a risk. $5 million per year is no longer a big contract, so I don’t think there is much downside. But there is definitely at least some upside.
That pitch in the GIF is a cookie.
…which is not uncommon in any league where a pitch is crushed. Hitters should hit those.
“Ichiro Suzuki‘s first contract with the Mariners was for three years and $14 million.” To be fair, it was also almost 15 years ago now and he was basically the first highly-successful Japanese position player. If a player of Ichiro’s quality went on the market today, he’d be blowing most of the deals for Cuban guys out of the water I think.
Reading that in context, I believe the point *was* that Ichiro was the first Japaense position player to sign, and that that’s why he signed for so little (14 mil in 2001 was still not very much for MLB teams). That Ichiro deal signifies the uncertainty at the time, and one can see a parallel to the potential Kang signing as Kang will be the first Korean position player to sign.
You’re absolutely correct that if a player of Ichiro’s quality was on the market today, he’d get well over $14 over 3, but that’s because we don’t have the same uncertainty that we did at the time.
It wasn’t very much for MLB teams in 2001, but it was still a lot more back then than it was now. The average MLB salary increased by 49.5 percent between 2001 and 2013, so relative to that, he’d have gotten 3/21, which wouldn’t have been bad at all for the first big-name position player to go from Japan to MLB.
Here’s the question. If the teams knew how good he was, what would they have paid Ichiro? Something like Manny Ramirez? 160/8 150/7?
Could they use Sean Rodriguez as their 4th OFer? McCuthchen, Marte, Snider and SRod? Would leave them a little thin at CF, but SRod/Snider would be a nice little platton in LF.
Then I guess Kang splits time between 2B and SS.
Polanco is the RF with Snider as the 4th OF
I just gotta say, this is super exciting. It’s real uncharted territory. Imagine how cool it’d be if he has a massive breakout?
If I was a Pirates fan I’d be pumped.
Kang can play 2B, SS and 3B… as can Mercer.
Harrison and SRod can play those plus the COF.
Pedro can play 1B and 3B.
Hart can play 1B and RF.
Marte,Cutch and Polanco can all play a good CF.
This team has crazy defensive options.
Walker could play multiple positions I would think as well just has never had too .. Played third up thru the upper minors
Yeah, and he was even drafted as a catcher!
Trouble with Walker, is he can’t really play second, and health is always a concern. He could probably be an average defensive third baseman, or a pretty good first baseman
I literally did a double-take when I saw the news. Pirates may well have been the LAST team I expected to bid on Kang.
Love this move for the Pirates. Either as a stand-alone, or prelude to a Neil Walker trade perhaps?
As another poster mentioned, the Bucs are already incredibly deep up the middle with Mercer, Walker, S-Rod and Harrison. I know Neil’s a local guy of sorts, and he’s a damn fine player. But he’s starting to make real money — could be very close to eight figures for 2015 — and his value on the open market might be at it’s highest, given his outstanding 2014 campaign.
What about a swap with the White Sox for a package centered around hotshot shortstop Tim Anderson? The kid played half of 2014 at age 20, and hit .301/.327/.481 across three levels, ending in AA. Plate discipline markers are sketchy, yes, but he’s a 2013 first-round pick (top 20 I believe) who’s considered a high-upside play according to all I’ve read. Add to him a live arm or two from the lower minors and maybe there’s a match.
And the Sox would do that why? Anderson is their only real impact position player – and first in a long time. His rise gives them a capable replacement for Alexei after either 2015 or 2016. If they stink again this year, Alexei can be traded and Anderson is the only viable replacement. The rest of the Sox’s supposed up-the-middle depth is mainly utility type guys. I like Neil Walker, but the Pirates would need to toss in something else quite meaningful for them to get Anderson.
If I’m Rick Hahn I make the trade because Neil Walker represents the difference between an 84-win season and an 87-win season, in a division where no one is even money to win more than 88 games. (If Detroit re-signs Scherzer, I’d call them a 90-win squad.)
By all projections, the keystone is a dead zone for the White Sox. So consider it a great opportunity for an upgrade in the person of Walker. And Anderson is a classic toolsy-but-low-floor prospect. (Actually, he isn’t uber-toolsy when you get right down to it. Not a great arm, nor a ton of fielding range. [But he may be able to hit, and that’s of course the rarest & most valuable tool of all.])
think Pedro is likely to get moved before Walker, tbh.
hey, so far the Korean pitchers worked out quite well. Why not give the hitters a shot? I, for one, am excited to see how Korean hitters translates to MLB ball.
I hope Kang gets every opportunity to play everyday or have a lot of PAs.
Assuming that Josh Harrison’s performance was a fluke instead of a breakout, which is pretty likely given the BABIP and HR/FB jump, third base would appear to be an opening.
Harrison is projected for 3.1 WAR next year. He is a good defender at third base, and that projection uses his career average BABIP, so even with his fluky performance being regressed, he is still a a solid starting third baseman.
That “career average BABIP” is obviously influenced by his fluke performance last season, and the xBABIP was influenced by a 24% line drive rate that he has very little chance of matching in 2014. Then the Steamer projection also assumes that he maintains the home run increase for a player who had never managed more than seven in any previous season even when combining major and minor leagues. I seem to have this argument every off-season with people who want to believe that a 26-27-28 year old player performing far better than he ever had before is going to maintain that performance when there are typically good reasons why they had never reached that level before, and in the vast majority of those cases they do not reach those levels again.
– “career average BABIP” is obviously influenced by his fluke performance last season –
Also influenced by the .253 and .259 BABIPs of 2013 and 2012. You can’t just throw that out the data you don’t like.
– Then the Steamer projection also assumes that he maintains the home run increase for a player who had never managed more than seven in any previous season even when combining major and minor leagues –
That 7 HR total came in 2013 in fewer than 400 PAs, to go along with 30 doubles and 7 triples. Steamer is calling for a significantly lower ISO than he achieved that year. Just more playing time. The projected ISO is not wildly out of line with what he did in 2012 or 2011 either.
– they do not reach those levels again. –
No one is suggesting that he will though. The point is a) his performance was not “lucky,” but was fueled by legitimately great play, which might be indicative of some sustainable improvements and b) you can regress his numbers a looong way and still have a valuable player on your hands. If you use his career line as his forward projection (about half of his career PAs came in 2014), then you have an above average hitter. Steamer likes him a little better than that; maybe you like him a little worse. Whatever. Call him an average hitter. Combine that with exceptional defense at 3B and positive base-running value and you have a good everyday player.
If I’m gonna choose between relying on Steamer, or jdbolick, I’ll take Steamer every time.
Right, what Jeff said. Even if you significantly regress his performance, he’s still an average or better starter.
Plus, there was nothing fluky about his results last year. His xBABIP just about matched his actual BABIP. He added an extra 2.5 feet to his average fly ball distance and nearly 20 extra feet to his average line drive distance compared to his pre-2014 numbers. Dude hit the ball hard. And his HR/FB ratio was still a pretty modest 7.7%.
Completely agree, Neil Walker is a very good player, but six years of control for tim anderson would be more valuable than Walker. Especially if there is still a chance that trade alexi for another needed piece. I do believe quite a bit of the pirates are underrated, but I am also a believer in Tim Anderson in the future.
He’s young and he hit but both Anderson’s plate discipline and defense were awful. This will be a big year for him. He needs to fix some things.
Jung-Ho would be an awesome name, but BBRef has it as Jeong-ho.
Incidentally, it looks like he might be the second best hitter on his club. First baseman Byung-ho Park was also 27, wasn’t quite as good as Kang this year but was quite a bit better the previous year and pretty comparable the year before that.
Also, since his family name is Kang and family names precede given names in Korea… his actual name is “Kang Jeong Ho”.
My guess is that he will adjust to western naming customs and go by Jung Ho Kang, but that is not actually his name.
“Jung Ho” is just an older Romanization, whereas “Jeong Ho” is in keeping with the current, official Romanization of the Korean language, as per the South Korean government, though names tend to be Romanized idiosyncratically at times. Written in approximate English phonetics, his name would be something like “Gahng Juhng Ho.”
Still though, it is a prettty awesome name, and can offer a lot of headline worthy potential.
What kind of projection for Kodos Jeong-Ho?
As a kbo fan watching mlb, i give you some information about kang. Keep in mind that it’s only my perspective.
first, need to understand the league circumstances. In korea, there are lots of low level pitchers and a few good pitchers. When the ‘a few good pitchers’ get hurt or go to other leagues such as japan or mlb, the batting average and power of the league seem to go up together, not individually. Especially, some good hitters used to multiply their stats in that season. This year, the kbo batting average almost went up to .300 and a bunch of hitters powered 15 more homeruns than previous seasons. This kind of situation had been before from 1999~2005 seasons when the good pitchers went to japan to make money and over 50 prospects went over to america. In those seasons, korean best hitter 1st baseman, lee seung yup once had hit 56homruns. Before those ‘full of low level pitchers seasons’, he uesd to hit 30 something homeruns.
Let’s talk about Kang jung-ho.
batting: he’s got some raw power definately and bat speed to transfer in mlb. But leg kick could be a problem. The 56 homerun guy also had the leg kick, and he struggled when he meets good pitchers. But kang could be better because kang’s bat speed is much better and more athletic than 56HR guy. Before this ‘low level pitcher season’, kang used to average around .300 and 20 something homeruns. In my opinion, he would be better than sean rodriguez at least. He could be better than mercer in 2nd and 3rd years.
Defense: best shortstop in kbo. Best arm among shortstops. But not top of the kbo history, and it’s above average arm and low range in mlb leverage. All the recent shortstops in kbo are taught and raised to be narrow range. This kind of teaching habit came from an incident that occured when once best shortstop in 90’s went to japan and got blamed on his defense. His defense was like rafeal furcal with great arm and range making lots of great catches and throwing errors at the same time, just like furcal or andrus. He was good on D of course, but the height and catching ability of 1st basemem in japan and korea are not as good as the mlb 1st basemen, and japan didn’t like that D style. They also said it’s a low level defense that caused hurts to korean baseball players. From that time, there are no ss who has good range. Coaches even prohibit barehand catches and throw. They really focus on not making errors, that shortens the range even when a player has some tools. It’s a rather japan style defense that used to have no plus arm and range as you all have seen in mlb. Kang? His range is better than Henry ramirez though. He could be peralta style D that shows short range, decent arm and low errors, if he can make adjustment in different bounds from kbo hitters and fields.
Running: not bad, not good. Do not expect some from running though. The bad runners in korea and japan used to hit single or homerun. They cannot get to 3rd from 1st base in a single. There are bunch of such players in korea and japan. Kang? He can get to 3rd. That’s why i said ‘not bad’.
To summarize, i think he can be a regular sortstop in mlb. He could be better than mercer. He’s got some talent definately such as rather athleticism, above average arm, bat speed and power. But it could take some time and perhaps need some patience for the fans. League stats comparison? I’d say it’s useless, cause’ the league stats of kbo moves up and down too often and too differently. If you persist to look at the stats to compare, u need to see the pitcher levels of the season and other hitters’ stats compared to their previous seasons’. A batter stands alone in pitcher high seasons? He is the unique guy also in korea.
As a kbo fan watching mlb, i give you some information about kang. Keep in mind that it’s only my perspective.
first, need to understand the league circumstances. In korea, there are lots of low level pitchers and a few good pitchers. When the ‘a few good pitchers’ get hurt or go to other leagues such as japan or mlb, the batting average and power of the league seem to go up together, not individually. Especially, some good hitters used to multiply their stats in that season. This year, the kbo batting average almost went up to .300 and a bunch of hitters powered 15 more homeruns than previous seasons. This kind of situation had been before from 1999~2005 seasons when the good pitchers went to japan to make money and over 50 prospects went over to america. In those seasons, korean best hitter 1st baseman, lee seung yup once had hit 56homruns. Before those ‘full of low level pitchers seasons’, he uesd to hit 30 something homeruns.
Let’s talk about Kang jung-ho.
batting: he’s got some raw power definately and bat speed to transfer in mlb. But leg kick could be a problem. The 56 homerun guy also had the leg kick, and he struggled when he meets good pitchers. But kang could be better because kang’s bat speed is much better and more athletic than 56HR guy. Before this ‘low level pitcher season’, kang used to average around .300 and 20 something homeruns. In my opinion, he would be better than sean rodriguez at least. He could be better than mercer in 2nd and 3rd years.
Defense: best shortstop in kbo. Best arm among shortstops. But not top of the kbo history, and it’s above average arm and low range in mlb leverage. All the recent shortstops in kbo are taught and raised to be narrow range. This kind of teaching habit came from an incident that occured when once best shortstop in 90?s went to japan and got blamed on his defense. His defense was like rafeal furcal with great arm and range making lots of great catches and throwing errors at the same time, just like furcal or andrus. He was good on D of course, but the height and catching ability of 1st basemem in japan and korea are not as good as the mlb 1st basemen, and japan didn’t like that D style. They also said it’s a low level defense that caused hurts to korean baseball players. From that time, there are no ss who has good range. Coaches even prohibit barehand catches and throw. They really focus on not making errors, that shortens the range even when a player has some tools. It’s a rather japan style defense that used to have no plus arm and range as you all have seen in mlb. Kang? His range is better than Hanley ramirez though. He could be peralta style D that shows short range, decent arm and low errors, if he can make adjustment in different bounds from kbo hitters and fields.
Running: not bad, not good. Do not expect some from running though. The bad runners in korea and japan used to hit single or homerun. They cannot get to 3rd from 1st base in a single. There are bunch of such players in korea and japan. Kang? He can get to 3rd. That’s why i said ‘not bad’.
To summarize, i think he can be a regular sortstop in mlb. He could be better than mercer. He’s got some talent definately such as rather athleticism, above average arm, bat speed and power. But it could take some time and perhaps need some patience for the fans. League stats comparison? I’d say it’s useless, cause’ the league stats of kbo moves up and down too often and too differently. If you persist to look at the stats to compare, u need to see the pitcher levels of the season and other hitters’ stats compared to their previous seasons’. A batter stands alone in pitcher high seasons? He is the unique guy also in korea.
Tonight on It’s The Mind we examine the phenomenon of Deja Vu.
Also, sincerely, thanks for the insights!