For Royals, Signing Yordano Ventura a Necessary Risk

Signing a pitcher to a long-term extension when that pitcher has completed just one season in Major League Baseball and had elbow troubles in that one season is not an ideal scenario for a franchise. For the Royals, who have seen the best young arms of this generation lost to injury and a failure to develop, locking up Yordano Ventura to a five-year deal guaranteeing $23 million covering all of his arbitration seasons with two options potentially covering his first two years of free agency, the move is a necessary risk.

Signed for $28,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2008, Ventura has a slight frame and an electric fastball leads to two unfortunate conclusions, one unfair and one undetermined. Like fellow countryman Carlos Martinez, Ventura has drawn comparisons to all-time great Pedro Martinez, who pumped a great array of pitches including a fantastic fastball over a long, Hall of Fame career. The other conclusion, that Ventura will eventually have to go to the bullpen, is perhaps a more realistic option given the impossibility of reaching Pedro, but is mostly unfair until he has actually failed as a starter.

Ventura’s contract lines up nicely with the last three extension signed by players with under two years of service time.

  Team Date Contract (YRS/$M) Team Options Service Time
Yordano Ventura Royals 4/4/2015 5/23.0 2 1.013
Jose Quintana White Sox 3/24/2014 5/21.0 2 1.133
Julio Teheran Braves 2/14/2014 6/32.4 1 1.062
Madison Bumgarner Giants 4/16/2012 5/35.0 2 1.127

Bumgarner received the biggest guarantee, but all players received contracts that buy out two free agent seasons. The other three contracts still look very good and the Royals can hope the same for Ventura.In 183 innings last season, Ventura put up a 3.20 ERA, 3.60 FIP and 2.4 WAR. Those numbers are not great, but over the last five years, only three other pitchers have exceeded Ventura’s WAR in a season: Zach Greinke, who they drafted a dozen years ago, Ervin Santana, who the Angels essentially gave away after a below replacement-level season in 2012, and James Shields, who cost the team one of the top ten prospects in all of baseball. Ventura represents a bright spot in a rotation filled with underwhelming options. Jeremy Guthrie, Edinson Volquez, and Jason Vargas are expected to combine for fewer WAR than Ventura will generate alone in 2015. Danny Duffy generates a lot of popups and flyballs that didn’t leave the yard in 2014 and inevitably turned into outs with the Royals incredible outfield defense, but despite the 2.53 ERA last year, his potential and present are no match for Ventura.

While Ventura’s 183 innings does not look overly impressive, it is the second highest total for a rookie 23 years old and younger over the past five years. Including postseason, Ventura pitched nearly 210 innings in 2014. To look back at similar seasons to Ventura, I looked for rookie seasons from 1995-2009 at age 22-23 with at least 140 innings and WAR from 1.9 to 2.9. Only seven players fit the bill.

IP WAR
Justin Verlander 1118.0 26.4
Tim Lincecum 1067.0 23.8
Josh Johnson 556.0 15.1
Jason Jennings 815.1 10.1
Steve Woodard 465.0 4.9
Chris Reitsma 403.1 3.0
Scott Olsen 522.0 2.0
AVERAGE 706.0 12.2

There are two successes, two average results, and three failures. Such is the risk of relying on just one season to project the future. Lincecum had already fallen off considerably, and the comparison is not direct, but the San Francisco Giants signed Lincecum to a two-year, $35 million deal after that fifth season. A $12 million option for Ventura seems cheap by comparison. Verlander is a result to aspire to, but much like the comparisons to Pedro Martinez, expecting that much is unfair. Given projections for a two-win season in 2015, looking for Ventura to bottom out like the final three players on the list also appears unrealistic.

The reason to sign Ventura to an extension is not just related to his decent 2014 and expectations for 2015. His promise is still great. He cracked most prospect lists ahead of the 2013 season and was rated as high as 12th by Baseball Prospectus heading into last year. In the offseason, Eno Sarris and Daniel Schwartz worked towards developing an arsenal score emphasizing swinging strikes and ground balls. In the original iteration Ventura ranked in the top-30. When the pitch outcomes were weighted according to pitch, Ventura moved into the top-15. Brooks Baseball has a writeup on the repertoire of each pitcher on the pitcher’s main page. This is what it has to say about Ventura:

His fourseam fastball is thrown at a speed that’s borderline unfair and has some added backspin. His curve is thrown extremely hard, generates an extremely high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ curves, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ curves and has primarily 12-6 movement. His sinker is thrown at a speed that’s borderline unfair, results in many more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sinkers and has slight armside run. His change is much firmer than usual and has a lot of backspin. His cutter is blazing fast, is an extreme flyball pitch compared to other pitchers’ cutters, has surprisingly little cutting action and has good “rise”.

Ventura uses his four-seamer around 40% of the time splitting his two-seamer, change and curve among the rest of his pitches along with the infrequently used cutter. The velocity is amazing.

Pitch Type Count Freq Velo (mph)
Fourseam 1516 43.0% 98.2
Sinker 761 21.6% 97.7
Change 488 13.8% 88.2
Curve 517 14.7% 83.7
Cutter 245 7.0% 94.7

His change is faster than Jered Weaver’s fastball and his curve is not far behind. In the opening game of the season for Ventura, he used both to get strikeouts.

First, the curve to Tyler Flowers:

Then, the change to Adam Laroche:

Ventura is not alone among young arms for the Royals. Kansas City might not have anyone else at the major league level ready to help, at least in the rotation, but the Royals have four young arms in the top 105 of Kiley McDaniel’s Top-200 list with Sean Manaea (37), Brandon Finnegan (56), Kyle Zimmer (94), and Miguel Almonte (105). With a few more years of team control on Danny Duffy, Ventura could have some help with a very good, young, cheap rotation. Journeyman currently populate the bulk of Kansas City’s staff, but hopefully for the Royals, those players are just a bridge and not an indication of a long-term strategy. Signing a player as young and inexperienced to a long-term contract is risky in terms of on-field results, but if Ventura fails to develop or has to move to the bullpen eventually, Kansas City will have only spent $23 million spread among five years. For Ventura, a $23 million guarantee is life-changing. Even if he becomes a star, he will be eligible for free agency at Age-30 and able to cash in on a major deal. If Ventura’s stuff continues to translate at the big league level, the Royals will have a bargain, just like they did when they signed him for $28,000 out of the Dominican Republic.





Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.

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jruby
8 years ago

Someday, someone’s going line one low and back up the middle, and Ventura’s going to kick it into the upper deck behind the first base dugout.

Green Mountain Boy
8 years ago
Reply to  jruby

I hope he learns a proper follow-through, because if someone turns one of those 100 MPH fastballs into a line shot up the middle, he’s going to get killed.