Forecasting Mailbag

by
March 5, 2012

There seems to be some confusion as to what forecasting systems do and don’t do, and how to interpret the results.

Post your questions in the comments section, and I’ll answer them.





 

93 Comments
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byronmember
12 years ago

Tango – The projections which you have clearly toiled over, putting in hours of personal attention until they were the perfect representation of your expectations for the coming season, do not tell me the players on my team/fantasy team will have as good a year as last year, which was not a fluke, or a much better year than last year, which was totally a fluke. Justify your existence.

15
RationalSportsFan
12 years ago
Reply to  byron

You can’t honestly think that this is anywhere near the standard complaint…I understand what this projection system is all about and also recognize that your caricature of the objectors is just silly.

0
Bill but not Ted
12 years ago
Reply to  byron

Byron-
(a) opposite
(b). you may be using the wrong website
(c). marcel is, IMO, the quite possibly the most reliable/useful (if there is such a thing regarding projections)

-1
Woodrum's UZR Article
12 years ago
Reply to  byron

yes, extend our complaints to ridiculous and hyperbolic proportions and then criticize the results… quite productive.

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Richiemember
12 years ago
Reply to  byron

I think you hit a nerve, Byron.

1
Woodrum's UZR Article
12 years ago
Reply to  Richie

sarcastic comments are only appreciated when theyre funny. that doesnt apply in the case of byrons comment.

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RationalSportsFan
12 years ago
Reply to  Richie

Making a stupid comment and getting criticized for it is not the same as hitting a nerve.

-1
Tangotiger
12 years ago
Reply to  byron

Trying to strip out any sarcasm, and the answer is:

Marcel provides the minimum level of competence of any forecasting system. It’s its intentional design.

And yet, and yet, a good share of forecasting systems either don’t beat it, or barely beat it.

Anyone who dismisses Marcel has no idea what they are doing. Marcel should be the core of EVERY forecasting system.

0
byronmember
12 years ago
Reply to  Tangotiger

Sorry for my unexpectedly disruptive sarcasm. The point I was trying to make is that if you, Tangotiger, the creator of Marcel, spent a year creating the most accurate forecasting system you could, Marcel wouldn’t be the result, it’d be the starting point. Yet other projection systems are lucky if they get a half step further than the starting point.

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Tangotiger
12 years ago
Reply to  Tangotiger

Yes, Marcel is extremely straightforward, and required not much effort. Basically, you get 90% of the way there (“there” being the best you can possibly attain), by spending about 5-10 hours to creating a forecasting system like Marcel.

Then, you spend, as I have, another 40-50 hours to get it 91% of the way there (it’s not part of Marcel). And, you spend, as others have, another 200-300 hours to get it 92% of the way there. And you spend, as I’m sure someone has, another 1000-2000 hours to get it 93% of the way there.

It becomes a question of diminishing returns, and a question of pure pursuit of knowledge.

I know I’ve spent/wasted quite a bit of time in this pursuit. It’s fun, you get to learn stuff. But, there’s no “oracle” moment, and no one should pretend there is.

I like to think of myself as the Amazin’ Randi to the Uri Gellers of the world.

2
kendynamo
12 years ago
Reply to  byron

i lol’d byron. funny post.

0