Francisco Lindor Takes Unexpected Route to Great Season

Francisco Lindor is again one of the best players in the game. Following last night’s strong performance, he’s posted an even 5.0 WAR this year, the third straight in which he’s reached the four-win threshold.

The combination of youth and remaining years of team control certainly make him one of the most valuable assets in the game. He’s a significant reason why the Indians enter today with a franchise-record 19 consecutive wins. He’s slashed .365/.434/.770 during the streak.

But he’s arrived here in an unusual way. He’s a very different player than in the past. The 5-foot-11, 190-pound shortstop is tied with Bryce Harper for 26th on the sport’s home-run leaderboard with 29. He’s joined the air-ball revolution. He’s a slugger, but his defense is at career-worst levels in his age-23 season.

I’ll return to the glove-related issues in a moment. Let’s focus on the bat first. Well, Abraham Almonte’s bat, which Lindor used to slug his 29th home run Sunday night.

Abe Almonte tossed Francisco Lindor the wrong bat, and it didn't matter. On the blast that powered win No. 18: https://t.co/C0CfOXy58L pic.twitter.com/UwXle4AaqK

— Jordan Bastian (@MLBastian) September 11, 2017

Few players derive the sort of visible joy from playing that Lindor does. Mr. Smile, the nameplate he chose for the players’ weekend, is appropriate given the nearly permanent grin worn by Lindor. He recently even smiled mid-pitch while observing a Jeremy Hellickson offering on its way into the heart of the zone.

Find you somebody who looks at you the way the @Indians Francisco Lindor looks at a meatball over the heart of the plate. pic.twitter.com/WzOwnQ435S

— Matt Lindner (@mattlindner) September 11, 2017

So Lindor is now a slugger. That’s a surprise to some given his frame, given his position, and given his lack of power production in the past. Most of the scouting reports I read when he was coming up through the Indians’ system suggested that Lindor would have gap power, perhaps 15-20 homer upside.

Well, only Edwin Encarnacion has out-homered him in Cleveland this season. The Indians were established as a franchise in 1901 and no shortstop has ever hit more home runs than Lindor, in a single season, in club history.

What’s happened?

He’s been among the most dramatic batted-ball profile changers in the sport, is what. Consider his average launch and home-run production by season:

2015: 4.4 degrees (12 HR)
2016: 9.6 degrees (15 HR)
2017: 12.8 degrees (29 HR)

Lindor insists that he hasn’t consciously made swing changes or joined the air-ball revolution. What he did say he’s trying to do is be more discerning at the plate and swing at pitches he can damage. Said Lindor to me for a piece in The Athletic back in April when I explored the idea of talent development and raw power becoming game power:

“I’m not a power hitter. I’m not going to be a power hitter,” Lindor said. “But I guarantee if I swing at good pitches I am going to drive the ball. I can’t guarantee I will hit them out of the park, but I will drive them.”

And it appears there is something of a relationship between his out-of-zone swing percentage and his offensive production:

Of course, his out-of-zone rate and swing rate are in line with his career norms. What sticks out is his change in batted-ball elevation. My personal eye test sees a swing that is more geared for loft, a player more often hunting pitches to slug.

Lindor did add during our conversation that he is “not a weak person.” Indeed. And during a pre-draft workout with the Mariners in 2010, he put on a show during a Safeco Park batting-practice session that former Baseball Prospectus analyst Kevin Goldstein said almost made him the No. 2 overall pick the draft.

Whatever the reason behind his profile change, he has reduced his ground-ball rate, by 10 percentage points, fueling his career best home-run total. And maybe a juiced ball is playing a role, too. Of course, if there is a juiced ball, all the more reason to get it in the jet stream.

Lindor, like Daniel Murphy and Justin Turner, is evidence that adding loft doesn’t necessarily go hand-in-hand with more swing and miss: he has a career-low swinging-strike rate (6.5%) and an elite 93% zone-contact rate. The trio also offer evidence that a batter needn’t be hulking to benefit from producing more air balls.

While we can argue whether this iteration of Lindor is better — his 116 wRC+ falls short of the 125 mark he produced in 2015 but remains slightly better than last year’s 111 — this has been a year of extremes for Lindor. He has, for example, had the most productive months of his career, offensively, and also his deepest slump. But his best stretches have never been more valuable.

While some implored Lindor to stop hitting fly balls and pulling balls at the peak of his slump, no one is asking him to reverse course now, and Lindor never really appeared to change his swing path as judging from average launch angle.

Lindor has changed his offensive profile significantly. He’s a high-contact slugger now. His home-run total has opened some eyes.

What has also opened some eyes is his across-the-board defensive decline, which is a bit of a mystery for a player in his age-23 season who’s also the reigning AL Gold Glove and Platinum Glove winner at the position.

Consider his advanced metrics and Inside Edge fielding report:

When asked earlier this year about his defensive metrics, Lindor said he was aware of them but didn’t understand what was behind the decline. He’s healthy. He still goes out for early infield work before batting practice every day with a disk-type device (instead of a glove) for his left hand to increase the difficulty in fielding grounders, to soften his hands.

Lindor does feel he’s made fewer spectacular plays, and whether that’s because of ability or opportunity or something else like position, is uncertain. Maybe we need a larger sample. Defensive metrics are imperfect. But they are all saying the same thing.

Lindor is still great. He’s still among the best shortstops in this age of historic talent at shortstop. But this is a very different Lindor. He’s still elite. He’s produced a five-win campaign. But he’s taking a route to get there that few expected.