Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 9/12

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, all. Let’s get right to it…

GPT: Hey, you saw a bunch of AZL Giants baseball last week, thoughts on Seth Corry and Diego Rincones, and anybody else who might make the next Giants prospect list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Corry is a bit of a project. Body, velocity and breaking ball all look the part but he has 30 command right now. Rincones has some feel to hit but the tools are middling, he lacks physical projection. He needs to hit a lot to profile, though I did speak with someone who thinks he will. Izzy Munguia is a fun little sparkplug who I’ve liked in CF and I think he has above avg bat speed. Jake Gonzalez and Heliot Ramos are obvious ones and I’ve written about Camilo Dovall.

Chris: Do you think Glasnow will be different this go around?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s objectively different but I don’t know if he’ll be much more effective. I hope so, though I’ve always been skeptical about the strikes ever coming. I guess we’ll see. He’s 24 now, I think?

Bork: Any September call ups really standing out to you so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like how Dillon Peters is mixing pitches.

VandyDan: How do teams determine who gets sent to instructs?  Mostly young guys or guys that missed time with injury?  How much leeway to players have in asking out if they want to train elsewhere?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s mostly comprised of young players who spent the back half of the summer at short season and rookie ball. New kids come up from Latin America, too. If upper-level guys are injured and need reps they typically go to Fall League. Then, of course, there’s the random weirdo development project (like Jairo Beras continuing to learn to pitch) that bleeds onto the back fields.

mike: From 18U USA gold medal team, how would Turang, Casas, Kelenic and Gorman order for 2018 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Turang, Gorman, Kelenic, Casas

Eric A Longenhagen: if you flipped 2 and 3 I’d be good with that, too

James Johnson: Do you think you underestimated matt chapman’s defensive ability in your preseason ratings?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had a 60 on his glove so I guess I did. Glad to see his OBP is up over .300.

Drew: Glasnow got me thinking, what is too tall for a pitcher? When do the levers become too long, 6’6?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a 6’8 21-year old throwing strikes for Fort Wayne right now. It’s harder to repeat as you get taller but there’s not a magic number for it.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Any favorite non-baseball podcasts? Favorite non-Fangraphs baseball podcasts?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like the Dana Gould Hour and You Must Remember This. I rarely do baseball pods.

Oddball Herrera: Curious to hear your thoughts on Ian Happ‘s rookie season – the power has been unexpectedly off the charts, but so has the K rate, where do you think he settles in?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think this is the type of player he’ll be but I do think the K rate will come down into the mid-20s

Gookie Dawkins: If All Rise hits 5+ HRs and cuts his Ks below 30% AND the Yankees take the division, do you think he could win the MVP based on the narrative?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, I think Sale’s got it.

Gary: Best systems – White Sox, Braves, Padres, Yankees?

Eric A Longenhagen: Philly, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay and Cincinnati are up there, too

Robert: Do you prefer Whitley or Kopech?

Eric A Longenhagen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/summer-top-100-prospects/

Dan: Outside of players selected in the 1st rd, which 2017 draftee has impressed you most, so far this summer?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: MJ Melendez

Rex: Who’s your favorite Padres middle infield prospect not named Tatis?

Eric A Longenhagen: Barley

Will: Why does Buck Showalter think it makes more sense to play replacement level Trumbo and Davis (Trumbo in RF yesterday!) over Austin Hays? Warped old school thinking or defensible?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re in the middle of a wild card race so I can sympathize with what looks like a desire to play a guy with whom you have familiarity instead of Hays.

Sam: Does Mackenzie Gore really have the potential to live up to the Clayton Kershaw comps? Rookie ball showing seemed pretty impressive

Eric A Longenhagen: I love Gore but this is an entirely unreasonable level of expectation

FireDrayton: What’s your big-picture view of the Astros system post-Verlander trade?

Eric A Longenhagen: I still really like it. They have some potential stars up top in Tucker and Whitley, young up-the-middle talent from Latin America, depth in pitching, a bunch of likely big league role players…it’s a good system.

Coz: Carson Fulmer had a good outing against SF his last start- do you think the White Sox should keep giving him starts or maybe start grooming him for the bullpen?

Eric A Longenhagen: They should keep trying him as a starter until the teams wants to compete for that division and his lack of control is actively harming that. Also, his statline from that start looks good but it was SF and was he really hitting spots with that fastball or just getting away with missing it that day?

Moltar: What level do you think Mark Vientos starts at next season? Are you bullish on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: There’s precedent for them pushing guys so maybe he starts with Columbia. Sure, I like Vientos. Not super high on him but he’s athletic for his size, should grow into power, could be a good defensive third baseman.

Erix: Is Carlos Ramirez, the converted OF turned reliever in Toronto anything worth getting excited about? 45+ innings with a 0 ERA, but…he’s old and a reliever

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a great story. 92-94, average mid-80s slider. Unless the funk in that delivery allows that stuff to play up, sounds like a fringe middle relief option.

Justino: When will the next home-grown pitching prospect take the mound as a starter for the Cubs, and who will it be?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on your definition of ‘home grown’ but I bet we see some Alec Mills at some point. Alzolay is an option, too.

Drew: Can you explain this whole Evan White thing to me? 1) Why hasn’t he been moved to the OF where he can provide much more value. 2) We’re all hoping he can be a 280/20 homer guy. Why is that exciting

Eric A Longenhagen: Potential elite defensive 1B. Yes, some want to see him in CF, others think it’s a bad idea to move him off of 1b when he might be really good there. 20 Homer projection is probably generous.

Derek in Little Rock: Do you think Alex Verdugo has 20+ home run power in MLB?  Walking more times than striking out at age 21 in Triple-A is remarkable regardless.  The rise of the home run may help him tremendously.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he gets there, yeah.

Drew: Are 8s on the glove/hit tool only retrofit onto current big league MVPs? If so, doesn’t that kind of defeat the purpose of having it on the scouting scale?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not exactly, 80s are just so rare that you barely see them on gloves and bats in the minors. They’re not taboo.

Eric A Longenhagen: And on defense it gets complicated because you can have an argument about whether it’s even possible to have, say, an 80 grade defensive left fielder. Shouldn’t that guy just be in CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: So if Brett Gardner at peak was an 80 glove in LF, did scouts really miss on that because they had a 45 or 50 on him in CF?

Ben: In what looks like an up and coming class of young OF prospects, who has the most upside between Juan Soto, Jesus Sanchez, Jo Adell, and Estevan Florial?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you think Adell stays in CF, then it’s him. Florial has a better chance to stay there than the other two.

Paul: If you had to choose do you prefer McKay as a pitcher or hitter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Arm

Kyle: Can you add a bit more insight into your recent ranking of Aramis Ademan (CHC)? Does he have the bat and defense to stick as SS?

Eric A Longenhagen: Think he has a chance to be a 50 at short with gobs of doubles. Or, he could outgrow short and hit for more power than that while playing second base.

Oklahomabrave: Any thoughts on Drew Lugbauer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Above average raw power, didn’t catch much at Michigan but scouts want to try him there. Scouts saw something correctable in his swing during BP in college. He’s had a hot summer, might be something there.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Is Jorge Guzman creeping his way into some top 100 conversations?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Twoseamers: Can you give us the three spec hitter targets for dynasty this offseason.  grab now before they become stud prospect status types.

Eric A Longenhagen: I write about a wide array of prospects throughout the year and the idea is for you to read that stuff and then make these kinds of decisions on your own.

Babe Lincoln: Any under-the-radar Mets prospects you find intriguing?

Eric A Longenhagen: I know Rigoberto Terrazas was old for the Appy League but there might be something there.

FGCommenter
I’ve always wondered, what makes one HS RHP stand out from another? Like what makes Matt Manning or Shane Baz 30+ picks different than Sam Carlson or Hans Crouse?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some combination of stuff, physical projection and strike-throwing ability. Crouse has much more of relief risk than the other three guys.

Jsal: Does Torii Hunter Jr have a future in the MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: He might. I think he’s a real prospect.

ChiSox2020: In hindsight, has Walker Buehler just developed better than Carson Fulmer or was he always more promising?

Eric A Longenhagen: Buehler’s stuff post-TJ was beter than it ever was at Vanderbilt. Even those who liked Buehler in college didn’t see this.

Brett: What can you tell us about Gabriel Moya from the Twins? His numbers are ridiculous, but is it all smoke and mirrors?

Eric A Longenhagen: There is some smoke and mirrors but that kind of stuff has a better chance to make a difference in one or two innings jolts than it does over 5+ innings as a starter. I do think he’ll be successful.

Noel: Dermis and Wilkerman Garcia: are their high K%s troubling or can they get them under control?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dermis is concerning because he’s a corner guy (and maybe a LF) that needs to hit. WIlkerman at least has a better defensive profile on which to fall back.

Lynn: Highest upside among future Rockie 3B’s between Welker, Vilade, and Hampson?

Eric A Longenhagen: Vilade

KW: What’s your opinion on Nelson Velazquez?

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus bat speed, very short to the ball. Thick, mature body likely puts him in a corner though I’ve heard he’s had lower half health issues that have diluted his speed. He’s over-aggressive at the plate and that will need to be remedied but he has the physical tools to hit and hit for power. Nice 5th rounder.

Eric: Which player going to the AFL are you most excited to watch?

Eric A Longenhagen: Long list. It’s been too long since I’ve seen Touki throw a curveball, so probably him.

Eric A Longenhagen: From a work standpoint, I want to see Chris Shaw play defense in the OF for six weeks, Alex Jackson catch, that kind of stuff.

Anthony: Has KJ Harrison been catching in the AZL? If so, how does he look back there?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s in the Pioneer League and looks fine in some ways but not in others. Arm strength looks fine, other aspects do not, as you’d expect from someone who didn’t catch much in college.

Anthony: Will you be bringing the Instagraphs notes back for Fall League?

Eric A Longenhagen: At least that, yes. Ruminating on other ways to cover it that are a little different, given that I’ll see literally everyone.

Drew: I’ve been waiting a long time for Hunter Harvey. You seen him? His 18 innings look good on paper.

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen him myself but he’s been like 93-96

Jay: What are your thoughts on braves c abrahan Gutierrez?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve gotten vague but positive reports from someone who saw him this summer.

Carlo: Thoughts on Mauricio Dubon’s future?

Eric A Longenhagen: High-end utility guy or low-end regular.

Dub: took Kyle Lewis over Royce Lewis, screwed that one up huh

Eric A Longenhagen: Some of you appear to be asking questions from alternate realities

Bryan: Do you think that Matt Olson has improved and adjusted or do you continue to project him as a fringe regular? Small sample size aside, he has been quite impressive in the past month.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s exhausted rookie eligibility at this point. I made my call, if I’m wrong I’ll wear it.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s all for today, good bye to you!