Gavin Lux’s Knee Injury Further Compromises Dodgers’ New-Look Infield

In the wake of a free agent exodus that included shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Justin Turner, the Dodgers entered the spring with a new-look infield that offered considerable uncertainty relative to the previously star-studded unit. Now the team will have to adjust its plans, because on Monday, Gavin Lux, who was slated to be the starting shortstop, tore the anterior cruciate ligament of his right knee, which will require surgery that is expected to sideline him for the entire season.

During the sixth inning of an exhibition game against the Padres in Peoria, Arizona, the 25-year-old Lux began running from second to third base on an infield grounder to third baseman Jantzen Witte. In ducking to avoid Witte’s throw to second base, Lux lost his balance, first stumbling and then tumbling into third as his right leg bent awkwardly. Upon crash-landing at the base, he clutched his right knee, clearly in pain, and could not leave the field under his own power, so the Dodgers called for the trainers’ cart. The video is here, but it’s not for the faint of heart.

Via the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett, here’s what manager Dave Roberts said after Monday’s game, before the results of Lux’s MRI were known:

Roberts said Lux was “pretty shaken up” after the play and told the trainer that he felt “something pop” in the outside of his knee.

“He heard something pop so obviously, as a player, you’re thinking the worst,” Roberts said. “Our trainers looked at him, I think their trainers looked at him and did some tests manually. But we don’t know a whole lot right now.”

On Tuesday morning, a tweet from ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested the prospect of a lengthy absence, and at the Dodgers’ camp this morning, Roberts revealed that Lux had torn his right ACL as well as suffering some other “lateral” damage (suggesting perhaps a torn lateral collateral ligament as well, a possibility that Lux later confirmed). “Gavin is obviously crushed. It’s a huge blow,” said Roberts, adding that Lux will undergo surgery, to be performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, on March 7.

All of this is particularly disappointing given the optimism that surrounded Lux, who was coming off a modest breakout and a productive winter, and was returning to the position where he had spent most of his minor league career.

A 2016 first-round pick out of a Kenosha, Wisconsin high school, Lux played 299 games at shortstop in the minors from 2016–19, compared to 79 at second base, though all 40 of his appearances in the field with the Dodgers in ’19–20 were at the keystone. The 2020 season began with Lux ranked second on our Top 100 Prospects list and favored to win the NL Rookie of the Year award, but instead he reported late to summer camp for undisclosed reasons, struggled with his throwing, and was basically an afterthought when he was on the roster, totaling just 63 plate appearances in the regular season and one in the postseason.

Lux spent most of 2021 in the majors, playing 59 games at shortstop while Corey Seager was injured plus another 27 at second base, 11 in left field, six in center, and one apiece at third base and in right field. The deadline trade for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner pushed the latter to second base and forced Lux to scramble for playing time in the outfield, where he was understandably green. He hit a modest .242/.328/.364 (90 wRC+) in 381 plate appearances, improving in the second half after a slow start. Seager’s departure for the Rangers in free agency opened up shortstop for Turner and thus second base for Lux; last year he played 102 games there plus 28 in left field. His nine appearances at shortstop all came in the later innings, often in blowouts.

Overall, Lux hit .276/.346/.399 for a 113 wRC+ in 471 PA. The only real disappointments were that he closed the regular season in a slump, and failed to show as much power as advertised. He missed 13 games in September due to discomfort in his neck that required a cortisone shot; before his absence, he was hitting .293/.368/.428, but he went just 8-for-52 with one walk and two doubles upon returning. His seven homers and 108.1-mph maximum exit velocity indicated that he was nowhere close to realizing the 65-grade raw power he’d shown as a prospect.

After the Dodgers’ 111-win season ended with a shocking defeat at the hands of the Padres in the Division Series, the team chose to let both Turners depart in free agency along with Tyler Anderson, Cody Bellinger, and 12 other players, with trimming payroll clearly the major motivation. A lack of corresponding moves to bring in additional free agents — particularly premium shortstops such as Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson — created opportunities for younger players even while setting a much lower bar than normal for a team that had won nine of the past 10 NL West titles, with at least 106 wins in each of its last three full seasons. According to Ben Clemens, this is the first year since we introduced our Playoff Odds in 2014 in which they haven’t been projected for at least 90 wins; they were projected to go 88-74 before Lux’s injury.

The Dodgers opened camp with Lux as their likely starting shortstop, with 23-year-old rookie Miguel Vargas the leading candidate in a crowded field at second base, bumping veteran Max Muncy over to third, with Freddie Freeman remaining in place at first base. Beyond his 2022 performance, the Dodgers were particularly optimistic about Lux in the wake of his visit to Driveline, where after going through a battery of biomechanical tests he reported a 6-mph gain in bat speed. Driveline encouraged him to add strength so as to increase his power, and under the supervision of the Dodgers’ training staff, he gained 15 pounds via a 4,500-calorie-per-day diet and extensive work.

According to Roberts, Miguel Rojas will take over shortstop in Lux’s absence. The Dodgers acquired the 34-year-old Rojas in January in exchange for Jacob Amaya, a 24-year-old major league-ready shortstop whom Eric Longenhagen described as “the best defensive infielder on Los Angeles’ 40-man,” while ranking him 15th on the Dodgers’ Top Prospects list about a week before the trade. Rojas is coming off a dreadful season at the plate (.236/.283/.323, 73 wRC+), in part due to playing through a right wrist injury that he originally suffered while sliding in July. He underwent surgery to debride cartilage in the wrist in October but needed a follow-up surgery to remove a bone growth. For as bad as his bat was, his glove was outstanding based on the metrics (15 DRS, 8 RAA, 4.9 UZR), but he finished with a paltry 1.2 WAR.

To be fair, Rojas isn’t nearly as bad a hitter when healthy. In 2020, he hit a more respectable .265/.322/.392 (96 wRC+), and for the ’19–21 span, he hit for a 99 wRC+ while totaling 4.9 WAR in 304 games. But even so, as Alex Eisert pointed out when the deal went down, it’s unclear why the Dodgers preferred to surrender talent in trade for Rojas and then pay him $5 million (soon expanded into a two-year, $11 million deal with an option for 2025) when they could have signed free agent Elvis Andrus, who eventually settled for just $3 million from the White Sox. Andrus, also 34, hit .265/.322/.392 with 17 homers and a 105 wRC+ last year; his defense was more of a mixed bag (-4 DRS, 3 RAA, 3.8 UZR), but his 3.5 WAR was nearly triple that of Rojas.

Now that’s water under the bridge. Besides Rojas, the Dodger likely to see the most time at shortstop in Lux’s absence is Chris Taylor, who’s 32 years old and coming off a disappointing, injury-marred season himself. Taylor hit just .221/.304/.373 (93 wRC+) with 10 homers in 454 PA but missed a month after fouling a ball off his left foot and suffering a fracture; he dropped from a 105 wRC+ (.238/.319/.409) before the injury to a 72 wRC+ (.193/.278/.313) after.

Taylor has played a total of 259 games at shortstop in his major league career, with a high of 81 in 2018, the year that Seager underwent Tommy John surgery. After playing 23 games at the position in 2021, he spent just a single inning there last year. The small and sporadic samples make it harder to get a read on his defense at short, though for his career he’s at -5 DRS, 0 RAA, and -5.8 UZR in about two seasons worth of playing time. Prior to Lux’s injury, we had Taylor estimated to take just 28 PA as a shortstop, with more playing time in center field, left field, second base, and third. Obviously, that could change, with outfielders Trayce Thompson and David Peralta, plus whoever survives the roster battle among veterans Jason Heyward and Bradley Zimmer and rookie James Outman also benefiting from Taylor spending more time in the infield. Taylor playing more at shortstop and less at second base could open the door for more playing time there for Mookie Betts or rookie Michael Busch.

Beyond Rojas and Taylor, the next man up at shortstop is probably Yonny Hernandez, a 24-year-old switch-hitter whom the Dodgers purchased from the A’s in December, his third time changing teams within an 8 1/2-month span after being traded by the Rangers to the Diamondbacks in April, then being selected off waivers by the A’s in November. In parts of two major league seasons, Hernandez has hit just .198/.293/.228 in 194 PA, including just 2-for-24 last year. In last year’s Graduation TLDR, Longenhagen wrote of him, “A gritty, gamer-type prospect, Hernandez’s ability to get on top of fastballs and his infield versatility make him a 1-WAR utility infield sort.”

With Lux out, one easy move the Dodgers could make to bolster their depth would be to sign José Iglesias, one of just three remaining free agent position players to reach the 1-WAR threshold last year (Gary Sanchez and Jurickson Profar are the others). Iglesias hit .292/.328/.380 (85 wRC+) in 467 PA for the Rockies last year, with average-ish defense (-4 DRS, 0 RAA, 2.9 UZR) after a rocky 2021 in the field (-22 DRS, 0 RAA, -6.1 UZR) with the Angels and Red Sox. He’s not a clear upgrade over Rojas, however. Neither is the Yankees’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who’s in the midst of a position battle involving prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza and who could become available if the kids have impressive springs. If the Dodgers do trade for somebody, the most likely scenario points to a trade deadline acquisition, though it’s unlikely there’s another Trea Turner out there.

The 2023 season was already shaping up to be a much different one for the Dodgers, as they appeared to be much less of a powerhouse than in recent years. The loss of Lux for the entire season only diminishes the already slim likelihood that they’ll run roughshod over the rest of the league as they’ve done lately.