Gut Punch x 3
The live Win Probability graphs are easily one of the coolest things we have here on FanGraphs. They convey the story of the game so well. And sometimes, that story doesn’t have a happy ending.
For fans of the Royals, Mariners, and Tigers, yesterday’s graphs represent pure pain.
Kyle Farnsworth, Brandon Morrow, and Brandon Lyon decided to pull the agony of defeat out of the jaws of victory, squandering leads and inflicting trauma upon three metropolitan areas. Not exactly the most auspicious way to begin your seasons, boys.
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“The quantification of your feelings as the game unfolds.”
Ouchies. Maybe next time fellas.
The graphs of the Phillies games so far have been less painful but more depressing.
I take that back.
you better. Go Phils!
The KC one, I caught a glimpse of the graph yesterday and that giant jump and immediately said to myself: “Farnsworth”
On the late edition of Baseball Tonight, Ravech was referencing win % for the one of the top two games as the game started to turn. No chance we would have heard that a couple years ago methinks.
ESPN now has a “Predicted Winner” on their live box scores, which is just a lame name for win probability, sans the graph.
You forget the pure joy it gives us on the other side. I have to say, Brandon Morrow’s decision to become a closer has made me very happy. At least for today.
ARGHHHH!!!!! As a M’s fan stuck in Twins Territory, I got a lot of lame text messages last night. 🙁
I think the probability charts needs to be slightly changed. As soon as Farnsworth came in the percentage should have changed dramatically.
Anybody have any idea why in the world Farnsworth would come in to pitch the 8th when he’s HR-prone, in a park that inflates HRs and is facing a HR-bashing team? Was Cruz sick or tired or something?
This is probably the first loss that can be blamed on bad managing.
It’s sad cuz I like Hillman too
x4
Look at the phillies game from today….
You could argue that the blame should be more evenly spread, but the WPA says that Batista was 10x more responsible for the loss than Morrow:
B Morrow WPA -.083
M Batista WPA -.824
Morrow may have walked the bases loaded, but Batista gave up back to back singles with two outs in the 9th, when the Mariners still had an 82.4% chance to win the game. Whatever, Morrow took the loss, Batista got the BS.