Happy 22nd Birthday, Mike Trout
This post is analysis free. It’s just a list followed by amazement. Here are the best hitters (by wRC+) through their age-21 season, all time.
| Name | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 1,286 | 0.316 | 0.397 | 0.548 | 0.403 | 162 | 18.0 |
| Jimmie Foxx | 1,301 | 0.342 | 0.436 | 0.579 | 0.454 | 161 | 14.2 |
| Ted Williams | 1,338 | 0.336 | 0.439 | 0.601 | 0.463 | 158 | 13.8 |
| Rogers Hornsby | 1,200 | 0.316 | 0.372 | 0.455 | 0.397 | 150 | 14.3 |
| Ty Cobb | 1,839 | 0.324 | 0.362 | 0.440 | 0.388 | 148 | 16.0 |
| Mel Ott | 2,060 | 0.331 | 0.428 | 0.558 | 0.440 | 146 | 19.3 |
| Mickey Mantle | 1,552 | 0.295 | 0.384 | 0.497 | 0.401 | 143 | 12.9 |
| Eddie Mathews | 1,274 | 0.274 | 0.366 | 0.541 | 0.405 | 142 | 11.2 |
| Frank Robinson | 1,345 | 0.307 | 0.378 | 0.543 | 0.401 | 141 | 12.4 |
| Arky Vaughan | 1,210 | 0.316 | 0.382 | 0.448 | 0.381 | 131 | 10.2 |
That list is Mike Trout and nine players in the Hall of Fame. Through this point in his career, Trout has been better than all of them. This is only considering what a player does at the plate, and ignores Trout’s contributions in the field and on the basepaths.
To this point in his career, Mike Trout has been Ted Williams if Ted Williams was fast.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I’m no Bengie Molina, Dave.
Thanks for another reminder Dave. This kind of performance could spoil us for many years before it really sinks in how awesomely Trout has started his career.
It’s staggering to think that Trout could be one of the top very few players in history.
The Avenseed Sevenfold of baseball.
Talk about regression… The guy’s basically on pace for another 10 WAR season!!
Jesus ball-sniffing Christ. Number that sticks out to me: 1.3 WAR behind Mel Ott in 800 fewer PA.
hey watch the language!
We’re not all savages like Serrano, here.
And currently leading the AL in walks!
Ted Williams wasn’t fast, but if he were, he’d be like Mike Trout if Mike Trout were to fight in two wars and be a master fisherman.
But his name is a fish.
The professor has a point.
https://twitter.com/JessTara/status/290549742969176065
And be one of the worst outfielders in history.
How many terrible corner outfielders are there? One of the worst in history seems unlikely.
didn’t they freeze Ted Williams’ body? Maybe Trout really IS Ted Williams!
Pretty interesting to see the translation from wOBA to wRC+ for Trout and then Williams/Foxx. Park and league adjustments, man.
I often wonder if people are aware of what happened in baseball before the 1970’s when they talk about how obvious it is that PED have such an effect on offense.
Guys used to flat out mash.
I hope you can stop putting Bryce Harper in the same group as Trout now.
Harper is in the same group as Machado and Will Myers and does not belong being compared to Trout.
He’s significantly ahead of Myers and (in my opinion), a bit ahead of Machado.
Machado’s name doesn’t belong in the same paragraph as Harper’s offensively.
Myers is not in the same group as any of those guys.
He is so far. Admittedly, SSS.
No, he’s not. He’s a year older than Trout, who is the oldest of the three.
Harper is nearly two years younger than Wil Myers. Harper doesn’t turn 22 until October 16, 2014. Wil Myers didn’t make his MLB debut until 6 months after his 22nd birthday and his currently enjoying a .381 BABiP.
Well, Harper is younger and hits for more power than Trout (just 2 less HR in 200 less PA), even if he doesn’t have the same batting average.
I’m not sure how he’s at all comparable to Manny Machado, who is 4 months older and has a 35 point lower wRC+ (.043 lower wOBA), or Wil Myers, who is 2 years older, walks less, Ks more and hits for much less power. The .008 difference in wOBA is entirely a product of the .097 gap in BABIP. In fact, Myers’ AAA wRC+ this year is 10 points lower than Harper’s is in the
What I’m trying to say is, don’t be ignorant. It makes you look, well, ignorant.
I +1-ed for the name, but I stayed for the analysis.
Hahaha, thanks. I try.
Yet their WAR is pretty much identical at their age.
And Harper’s WAR seems likely it’s going to regress in his sophomore from his rookie season.
His WAR is not going to “regress” from last season. That’s not what the word regress means. Harper missed a month due to injury (and played hurt for a month before that), so, naturally, his WAR has decreased as it is a cumulative stat. His rate stats, however, have all markedly improved.
Definition of regress
1. To go back; move backward.
You have less war in 2013 than in 2012 you are regressing no matter how you look at it.
I believe that in statistical analysis regression is defined as moving towards the mean. You are correct in that your definition is one of the definitions of regress, but people here generally assume the statistical definition.
What mcneildon said.
My thought is that the inclusion of Machado depends on how great you think his defense is.
Exactly. He really hasn’t been exceptional offensively compared to Harper and Trout. (Although he’s definitely been very impressive for a 20 year old).
Agree, but Harper hasn’t been healthy this year so he deserves a semi mulligan. He’s also a year+ younger which is alot in that age group. Trout is better though.
Did you send him flowers for his birthday?
We’ll see Bryce Harper land somewhere in the middle of this list by next year 🙂
Maybe. Currently “only” at a career 129 wRC+, so he’s going to need to show that April 2013 was the real him, not everything that came after that.
Harper should easily fall in the top 10 by next year, agree. Just for fun, it would be interesting to see what kind of “age 21” season (2014) Harper needs to have to equal Trout at 162 wRC+. He won’t get there, but with a huge (healthy) year next year he could move fast up this list.
Well, he did get injured in the first week of May. He played hurt the entire month, so I’m inclined to give him a mulligan.
I honestly didn’t read your post till after I posted. Great minds and all that…
Watching him play every day is really something. Trout is a special player. It just sucks the Angels cant put a team around him. Trout might have back to back 10 win seasons with no MVP award. That doesnt make sense.
In all fairness, there’s a case to be made for Miguel Cabrera. Unfortunate for Trout to come up at Miggy’s peak.
Last year shouldn’t have been close. If Miggy were a career marlin, trout would have won handily.
The valid-ish argument for Cabrera, which no one pro-Cabrera made at the time, is that there was a bigger difference between Cabrera and the backup 3B than there was between Trout and Bourjos, so Miggy was more valuable to the Tigers than Trout was to the Angels.
Well, of course. Miggy would have won the NL MVP in that case.
What is crazy is that Harper(6.7WAR turns 22 in November 2014) and Machado(6.0WAR turns 22 in July 2014) all came up essentially together
Damn. Mel Ott.
This man tells it like it is.
Agreed.
2K+ PA by age 22.
Were they even called phenoms back then?
I wonder how accurate Ott’s fielding stats are, I don’t recall ever reading that he was a great defender (although that might just be because he was such a great hitter). He has the same defensive value as Trout:
http://goo.gl/6TaHEt
Also, holy Al Kaline! Although his 40.0 pales in comparison to Andruw Jones’ 62.0
Lost in the Mike Trout adoration is that the all time WAR leader for 22 year-olds is a 5’9” dude named Melvin.
Albeit with more than 150% of Trout’s plate appearances. Though that works both ways- if you only take Ott’s 20 and 21-year old seasons, he’d have a significantly higher wRC+.
Thanks for spoiling us Mike Trout, now talking heads debate whether Profar is a bust because he only has a 83 wRC+ as a 20-year old.
There should be a “Troutgraphs” section on this site that would be dedicated exclusively to articles and observations about Mike Trout.
As long as it can be done without mentioning the sadness of the rest of the Angels it sounds enjoyable.
I’m in. where do I sign up?
troutgraphs leaderboards could include Wins Below Trout.
And a section titled “When Trout Failed”…WTF?
Should have wRCt — weighted runs created on the scale of Mike Trout. Everyone would look terrible because they’d be below 100.
The kid is unreal, and it’s a nightmare to play against him.
People call him a 5-tool player. He’s really not, as his arm isn’t great…but all his other 4 tools range from above average to elite, so it doesn’t really matter.
I think the term is stupid, but we might be watching a first-ballot hall-of-famer here.
Might? Barring injury Trout’s the definition of a first ballot HOF. We’re talking the first player to give us real visions of a potential top 5 all-time career since ARod arrived, and he’s way ahead of ARod.
By invoking ARod, you’ve just proved exactly why “might” is the appropriate word here. An awful lot can happen between now and the end of Trout’s career, and it’s simply foolish to talk about ‘first-ballot HOFers’ when they’re a month from concluding their second MLB season.
None of which is meant as a slight on Trout, of course — I wish there were an adjective that could properly capture how absurdly good he has been, but there just isn’t. He’s outrageously phenomenal.
Since ARod? I think a case could be made for Pujols.
Are there any true five tool players right now? The only two I can think of are Bryce Harper and Carlos Gonzalez and they both come with caveats.
Harper currently carries a below-average baserunning rating for his career and has a subpar stolen base success rate. CarGo has a highly rated arm according to the stats, but would it play well in center or right field?
Maybe Adam Dunn.
Wait, you said “three true outcomes”, right?
Adam Dunn is a one true outKome player.
This year:
6th in HR
8th in BB%
10th in SO%
2010-2013 [min 1500 PA]
7th in HR
5th in BB%
1st in SO%
2002-2013 [min 3000 PA]
2nd in HR
3rd in BB%
2nd in SO%
I think he’s practically the definition of three-true-outcomes…
Harper’s base running issues are a skill (and overconfidence) problem, not a raw speed problem.
The speed tool is there, so he’s a true 5 tool player.
Well, the whole “5-tool” thing is stupid, I think we all know that, but one of the tools is “defense,” right? Which is separate from your arm (no questioning that aspect of his defensive game). Harper takes a lot of bad routes to balls. The diving catch he made in Tuesday’s game is a prime example (I realize it is a bit weird to point to a diving catch when claiming a guy has bad defense). His UZR over the last 2 years is pretty decent though, but he does have that arm and he’s played a lot of corner outfield.
Oh, it’s definitely pretty stupid, but I do think that Harper has the talent to be a good defensive outfielder. The issue is that this is only his third year in the outfield. He was a (good defensive) catcher until he was drafted.
I don’t have the balls to doubt pretty much anything about Harper, and that includes him becoming an excellent defensive outfielder.
That’s a fair assesment of Harper if he does have bad roots to flyballs. Just like how Derek Jeter’s silly little hop throw on routine groundballs shows he has no range.
The best player born on August 7 prior to Trout was Edgar Renteria. Trout will probably pass him in career value the year after next.
Renteria had a 103 ops+ and a 3.3 WAR as a 19 yr. old SS. Interesting no?
Interesting group of guys selected ahead of Trout in the 2009 draft:
http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2009/
I knew deep down that somehow it was the Yankee’s fault that Trout was stuck on the Angels.
Some of these are like drafting Olajuwon.
Some are like drafting Bowie.
The Angels are lucky that Trout fell to them at 25 after they picked Randel Grichuk.
The Angels are also lucky that the Mets gave them the #25 pick by signing K-Rod…effing Omar Minaya.
They got the Trout pick from Teixeira
Apparently, Trout was #2 on their draft board (after Strasburg). Not sure why they chose Grichuk first.
it was to put him a step further down for guaranteed money
I thought I’d read that it was at least in part because they had back-to-back picks, and the GM wanted to fuck with the scout that recommended Trout. Basically, they were going to grab Trout and Grichuk anyway, and he picked Grichuk just to see the look on the scout’s face. Pretty sure I read that on ESPN last year some time, but it’s blocked at work so I can’t verify.
They chose Grichuk first in order to have leverage against Trout when discussing a contract. Trout was always number 1 on the Angels’ list.
If you look at the high school players that were drafted before Trout most of them were significantly older than him – I’ve always wondered why teams don’t factor this in more. I think everyone knows that age is a huge factor in high school performance – I’m remember being upset after finding out kids that beat me were sometimes as much as a 18 months older than me (and it wasn’t like I was really young for my class, my birthday is June).
Trout (25th): 8/7/1991
Donovan Tate (3rd): 9/27/1990
Matt Hobgood (5th): 8/3/1990
Zach Wheeler (6th): 5/30/1990
Jacob Turner (9th): 5/20/1991
Tyler Matzek (11th): 10/19/1990
Bobby Bochering (16th): 10/25/1990
Chad James (18th): 1/23/1991
Shelby Miller (19th): 10/10/1990
Jiovanni Mier (21st): 8/26/1990
Looking at that list of birthday’s it’s not much of a surprise that Trout is the best one on the list.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15295
Awesome article. Sheds a little bit light on nightmare of a season at age 10 in a league full of 11 and 12 year-olds. See also: Outliers, by Malcolm Gladwell.
Damn Korean war
What’s the minimum playing time for the leaderboard that Dave C. generated?
Minimum playing time is having enough WAR to place on the graph. Is there someone you think is missing?
The graph is ranked by wRC, not WAR. Look at Mel Ott.
I’d be curious to know as well.
Here is some food for thought:
What might Babe Ruth have done prior to turning 22 if he wasn’t pitching? He only got 263 PA before his 22nd birthday and he generated a WAR of 2.5. It looks like he was pitching in most of those games, too.
1915-1918 (Babe’s pitching seasons) he accumulated 14.8 fWAR through his pitching and 3.8 fWAR through his hitting. So he got plenty of fWAR those seasons (18.6) but it doesn’t make Dave’s list because it looks like he’s only included position players.
Babe Ruth was the Muhammad Ali of baseball.
More like the Mike Tyson…before he ran into Buster Douglas of course.
Yes, but is he good at baseball? Thats the question that needs answering.
It’s nice to see Trout finally getting some recognition on this site.
More talent in his pinky than most mortals hope to acquire over a lifetime, and then look up his girlfriend.
If you needed any confirmation Mike Trout does not live in the same world as us peons, that is it.
All Southern California girls look like that. Sigh.
she’s from south jersey
Exactly, Cali girls look better
Really? His girlfriend is attractive, but not stunning. But you’ve certainly helped cheer me up today, now knowing my 31 year old wife, and mother of two, is just as, if not more attractive than the girlfriend of maybe the best player we’re going to see in our lives.
How are my kids by the way?
Hat tip to John Vukovich.
I’m glad I could make your life better. It’s what I do.
The ongoing slavish adulation of Trout makes the Angels’ poor record much more delicious to contemplate. Yep, he’s leading them to third place again. Amazing!
Why hasn’t he learned to pitch yet? What a selfish guy, not doing everything he can to help his team!
Probably because he only has a fringe-average arm in CF.
I gave you the 19th thumb-down by the way.
Only reason left to watch the Angels this season, and even that is dwindling…..every team is pitching around him at this point.
Did not really worry about the salary tiff between Trout and the Angels before this season, but now…..with the Angels the official laughingstock of baseball with a “development” process consisting of overpaying worn-out veterans & waiver wire/independent league pickups….you have to wonder how long a truly great player will put up with being the star of a clown show…..
Ask Giancarlo.
None of you even know Mike Trout. This is weird.
How is it possible that Ted Williams is beating Mike Trout significantly in all of those numbers, and yet he still is 5 WAR below Trout?
Offensive context. The average MLB line through Williams’ age 21 season was .288/.362/.431. For Trout, it’s .248/.312/.397. Also, there’s defense, baserunning, and positional value.
Williams leads that list in OPS and is second in ISO (to Matthews).
I think wRC+ is a fine tool intra-season, but it makes me a little leery over that long of a time frame.
i don’t see that mike trout is the same as ted williams with speed. if ted williams had mike trout’s speed, wouldn’t his wRC+ have been higher as a result of stolen bases? as i see it, mike trout (with mike trout speed) is equivalent to ted williams (with ted williams speed). if ted williams had mike trout speed, he would be in mays & bonds territory
Stolen bases are no longer include in wRC+ or wOBA.
Ted Williams isn’t in Mays and Bonds territory???
That’s what I was wondering, I thought it was commonly regarded that Ted Williams was a borderline top 5 player of all time
Wow, Mel Ott hit 42 HR as a 20 year old.
Great start! Too bad he will be a 2-WAR player by the time he‘s 25…
And you know this because?
Because he’s that guy from the matrix
AND Cowboy Curtis!!
22 years old already and no MVPs to his name. Sheesh.
LOL not impressed
Tell me about it, he’s been a liability of defense this year.
liability *on defense
Actually the Angels are a good argument for the foolishness of WAR.
According to Baseball Reference, after 112 games, the Angels have 21.7 offensive WAR, and 4.2 pitching WAR. Defensively they have -4.5 WAR. So the total WAR for the Angels is 21.4.
A replacement team is supposed to win 32% of its games (http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8225). So the Angels should have 35.8 + 21.4 wins: 57-55. They should be an above average team. Instead they are 51-61 with their huge payroll.
It gets better. The Angels have NINE hitters with an OPS+ over 100, with a minimum 147 PAs. Increase the minimum PAs to 294 and they have 7 hitters with OPS+ over 100. That’s a hell of an offense on paper.
Their pitching must suck, then, right? Except they have three starters with ERA+ over 100. Their bullpen is a challenge.
But still, how is a team with 7 above-average regulars, and 3 above-average starting pitchers, and Wonderboy the Magnificent who can do no wrong — how is this team 51-61?
Lies, damn lies — and won-lost record.
It’s almost like WAR is a context neutral stat! And that oWAR+dWAR=/=bWAR.
Comments like this are a good argument for the foolishness of people who try to use statistics they don’t actually understand.
I may be a fool, but the Angels are still 10 games under .500. Nyah nyah.
I know, isn’t it awesome?
I’m just a Yankees fan breathlessly waiting for the day that we sign Harper to a 15 year, $400 million dollar contract.
And I fucking hate the Angels.
Luck.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
Stats don’t lie, dawg! Interpretations are often, perhaps always, biased, but the numbers themselves are spectacularly objective. Moral of the story: don’t criticize statistics, interpret them.
Trout is the greatest of all time.
That’s a bold statement.
I am the greatest of all time!
Imposter!
Rickey knows you are not the real Rickey. The Real Rickey–and Rickey is the Real Rickey–would have said “Rickey is the greatest of all time!”
You and Trout should get a room already Cameron.
Just keep hating on my boy Miggy Cabrera who is putting up way better numbers than Trout while leading his team to the playoffs unlike your wonder boy Trout.
Hitting is only one part of the game.
It’s “one part” and also by far the biggest part of the game for a position player. It is also the most reliable to evaluate as there is not a completely accurate stat that measures defense.
Except nobody is hating on Miggy, especially this year.
Exactly. I’d give Miggy the MVP the year without question, actually.
Miguel Cabrera is terrible at baseball. He sucks hard. He’s the worst. I hate him. Everyone else is better, especially whatever player you don’t like.
Not talking about Miggy is apparently hating on Miggy.
Mentioning other good players is also hating on Miggy.
Detroit not named Miggy is hating on Miggy.
Myopic is hating on…Miggy.
Ted Williams’ stats give me a boner.
Trout just hit a two-run bomb.
Trout’s ok and all, but give me a Triple Crown winner any day, baby.
Hey buddy! I haven’t seen you since you went on the tour of the Elmer’s Glue factory. I waited and waited but never saw you come back out?
How’s this for perspective: At age 20, he put up a better single season WAR than fellow phenoms Ken Griffey Jr. and Alex Rodriguez ever put up in their entire CAREERS (10.0 for Trout vs. 9.8 for A-Rod and 9.7 for Griffey at 27 year old peaks). That, and he seems to have actually improved significantly at the plate this year. WTF!?!
He needs a new category. “Phenom” doesn’t adequately encompass his awesomeness. Also, how do you project for his development going forward? What is his ceiling? 15 WAR? 20?!? If his hitting follows the standard aging curve, and defensive numbers stay anything close to what he established last year…I don’t think a .450+ obp, 40+ HR, above average fielding in CF is out of the question for him.
Trout simply does not have 40 HR power.
Especially given that he isn’t likely to “fill out” any more. He hits for power, but unless he goes for a swing for the fences approach and moves to Denver or Milwaukee, he probably isn’t likely to hit more than ~35 home runs.
He hit thirty last year and missed a bit of the season. He probably has 40+ home run power.
I’d say it’s pretty foolish to put any limitations on what Mike Trout can do. It’s almost like some of you guys have been in a coma for the last two years.
It’s not like he’s going to fill out any more and his HRs haven’t increased from last year, despite the additional month of playing time.
All the scouts (who adore him, obviously) have him as a 25-30 HR guy. That means he might have a couple 35 HR seasons, but he’s not going to do it consistently.
He’s a right handed Grady Sizemore with an extra 40 points of average. That’s one of the best players of all time if he keeps it up, but it’s not the same player as Willie Mays. (Bryce Harper, however, is Mickey Mantle).
You must not watch trout play very much. Seeing him put a poor swing on a ball just to have it carry 440ft to the opposite field is a sight to behold
You’re right, I just read a lot of scouting reports. I’ve never seen anyone paid to give opinions on baseball write that Mike Trout is capable of hitting 40 home runs in a season.
Fun fact: Mike Trout is the youngest player in MLB history to hit a home run on his birthday in consecutive years. The only other player to homer on his birthday twice by his 22nd birthday was Buddy Lewis in 1936 and 1938
“This is only considering what a player does at the plate, and ignores Trout’s contributions in the field and on the basepaths.”
It’s an ordered list by WAR. Doesn’t WAR include baserunning and defense?
Oh nevermind, I see that it’s an ordered list by wRC+
Why do you choose wRC+ instead of wOBA?
try and look at the average MLB player from each era to see if wOBA would be a good idea.
Big bucks, adoration and hype have taken down many young stars. I wonder if the Angels make an extra effort to “watch out” for Trout?
Angels are wasting the amazing production from Trout
If Rawls sees this thread, Freamon is going back to pawn shop unit.
Hell no. I was there for 13 years…and four months.
I’ve got my 30. If I get transferred again I’m just gonna retire, make my dollhouse furniture and chill with my hot ex-stripper girlfriend.