Here’s Who Will Win the Next Five World Series
(Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)
On a recent podcast episode, Eric Longenhangen and I discussed the premise for this article, which is another way of asking which organizations are healthiest in the short-to-medium term. The factor that goes furthest towards answering that question is present on-field talent, although salary, controlled years, the presence of impact minor leaguers on the horizon, and front-office quality are all relevant — as is payroll ceiling, which serves as a proxy for margin for error. With the World Series starting tonight, it seemed like the right time to look ahead at the favorites for the five World Series beyond this one.
I’ve experimented with some objective ways of measuring organizational health. I think it’s ultimately possible to produce an algorithm that would do a solid job, ranking teams objectively in a number of key categories. It would also require considerable time. Eager to arrive at some kind of answer, I’ve settled for subjective assessment for this version of the post, but I intend to work on something more systematic in the winter.
Here are the criteria I’ve considered to produce these rankings: short-term MLB talent, long-term MLB talent/upper-minors prospects, lower-minors prospects/trade capital, payroll ceiling, MLB coaching/front office, and amateur signings (draft and international). You could quibble and combine or separate a few of those groupings, or argue some of these can’t be quantified properly. You may be right, but we’ll keep tweaking things until they are.
I had originally intended to limit this list to five teams for purposes of symmetry, but the top tier looked like seven teams to me, and the sources by whom I ran this list agreed. In the same way that the I approached the Trade Value Rankings from the point of view of a medium-payroll, medium-term-focused team, I’ve undertook this exercise by asking which team would be most attractive to a prospect GM if his or her only interest is to win the most World Series possible (and not have low state income tax, run a childhood team, or live in a cool city) over the next five seasons.
Without further explanation, here are the organizations most likely to win the 2019-23 World Series.
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
The top-three teams on this list all have some reasonable claim to the top spot, but I ultimately went with the Dodgers, as they have a little more certainty in terms of on-field personnel than the Yankees possess, while both clubs feature similar built-in financial advantages. (Houston lags behind on the second count.)
Brian Dozier, David Freese, Yasmani Grandal, Manny Machado, Ryan Madson, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and possibly Clayton Kershaw are all becoming free agents after the World Series. That should worry Dodgers fans a bit. But Los Angeles also has a better farm than the Yankees, a slightly easier league, and a clearly easier division, along with reinforcements on the way. The Dodgers have two of the top three catching prospects in the game waiting in the upper levels (Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith), an MVP-candidate shortstop returning from Tommy John surgery (Corey Seager), another top hitting prospect who’s big-league ready (Alex Verdugo), plus the money to bring Kershaw back and still afford upgrades at a spot or two.
The flexibility afforded by Cody Bellinger’s defensive flexibility, plus the presence of multi-positional dynamos like Enrique Hernández and Chris Taylor — along with an established bullpen ace in Kenley Jansen and an emerging starting ace in Walker Buehler — all gives the Dodgers the short-to-medium-term personnel edge to take the top spot.
2. Houston Astros
I was prepared to put the Astros behind the Yankees, since the Bombers’ financial edge and superior scouting/development make up for the deficit in short-term talent. That said, the Yankees are forced to contend with the Red Sox, which should produce something like a 50/50 split over the next five years between division titles and Wild Card appearances. On the other hand, the Astros don’t have a clear, consistent second power in their division. A 90-something-win season is about standard for teams like this, and there’s a real chance the Yankees never get to the ALDS with that win total, while the Astros are far more likely to have home-field advantage guaranteed in a playoff series. For that reason alone, the Astros slide just ahead of the Yankees.
The pending free-agent class includes Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton, though the top pitching prospect in baseball (Forrest Whitley) is ready to fill in for one of those next year. Marwin Gonzalez is a pending free agent, but his corner-outfield spot is ready to be filled by another top-10 prospect in the game, RF Kyle Tucker. The core is still solid and locked up for long enough that the payroll deficit with the Yankees shouldn’t be a huge worry in the short-term, but likely will be toward the end of the five-year window I’ve defined here.
3. New York Yankees
Eric and I often talk about the Yankees in glowing terms when it comes to their process and outcomes, particularly in the amateur markets. They are generally regarded to be top-five (if not better) in terms of developing their minor leaguers and signing/drafting players in the draft and international markets. This allows them to continue to turn small investments into tradable assets — and GM Brian Cashman has been aggressive in trading multiple middle- to lower-tier prospects for short-term help, trusting that this machine will backfill the openings.
There are some questions surrounding the big-league team, however. There isn’t a clear long-term answer at first base; it isn’t obvious that Gary Sanchez will be a catcher for as long as some Yankee fans originally hoped; they’re now short an infielder for at least the first half of 2019 after Didi Gregorius‘s elbow surgery; Miguel Andujar’s defense was historically bad this year; and the rotation needs to be bolstered. The farm system isn’t positioned to address those holes, but the Yankees have a good recent track record of solving such problems and also won’t have the constraints of the luxury tax about which to worry this offseason.
The club has a number of pending free agents, but not many current impact-type guys, with David Robertson representing possibly the best. Others include Zach Britton, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, Andrew McCutchen. Much of the departures come from the bullpen, the strength of the team.
The Astros and Red Sox will remain in direct competition with the Yankees for at least the next few years, while Cleveland and Tampa Bay aren’t going away, either. They also don’t have George Steinbrenner in charge of the checkbook, so the spending likely won’t go out of control anytime soon, but the Yankees are still set up for a good run over the next five years due to a core with tons of controllable years.
4. Cleveland Indians
The Indians are the clear heavyweight in the weakest division in baseball, and they employ the top two players from our recent Trade Value Rankings in Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, with Corey Kluber just behind them at 12th on the list. They’re losing Cody Allen, Michael Brantley, Josh Donaldson, and Andrew Miller to free agency this year, and their middle-third payroll dictates that not all those players will be returning. The club had holes in the outfield even before losing Brantley.
This puts Cleveland in the tough middle phase of a mid-market club’s playoff run, where they’re forced to maintain some quality at the major-league level even as they slowly lose the advantages created by their most valuable contracts. Luckily, they’ve continued to improve their rotation with Trevor Bauer, Shane Bieber, and Mike Clevinger all emerging and Triston McKenzie on the way. Factoring in Kluber and Carlos Carrasco makes the rotation the strength of the team, aside from the two dynamic infielders.
There is prospect capital in the lower minors, particularly the fruit from one of the better international programs in the game, but the trade value for those sorts of players will be much better in a year or two, as they establish some track record. If the Indians can remain a 90-ish-win team for 2019 without sacrificing value from future years, they are positioned for a key decision. After the 2019 season, they could to push their chips in again and extend the window for this group (followed by a full rebuild, a la the Royals right now), or do the more prudent long-term things and have a much shorter and less painful reload to reopen a new window (like the Yankees a few years ago).
5. Atlanta Braves
If I wrote this list a year ago, the Braves would be the sleeper organization sitting outside the top tier — likely outside of the top 10 — that I’d say has the potential to jump into this tier if everything comes together and ahead of schedule. That’s precisely what happened this year. At the same time, the Marlins continued to rebuild, the Mets continued to Mets, the Nationals took a step back, and the Phillies failed to leap as far ahead as their early-season results suggested they might. As a result, Atlanta emerged from the NL East as champions.
No team in this division appears poised to roll out a top-five payroll over the next few years, as industry chatter has the Nationals looking to reduce spending this winter. In lieu of a financial advantage, the Braves’ embarrassment of young MLB-ready or MLB-proven talent gives them an edge in terms of quality of players and depth. This effectively gives them something approximating a financial advantage against the division, whenever they choose to fully use it; industry chatter suggests the Braves won’t be cashing in all of their chips this offseason.
The Braves have the best farm system of the clubs in this top tier and arguably have the best controllable MLB talent, as well, with Nick Markakis and Kurt Suzuki headlining the pending free agents. The farm system has lost some depth, and international sanctions will limit the opportunity to add to it in coming years, but it will take years before that will be felt in any real way. If this group of young players develops as expected, there will be little effect at all.
I should mention, as most of you know, that I worked for the Braves recently and betting on a young core continuing at a certain trajectory can be shaky (the Mets being a recent example), but everyone with whom I spoke said the Braves clearly belong in this top tier, in part due to their core and in part to the presence of more young depth than most upstart clubs have possessed in past years.
6. Boston Red Sox
One on hand, this team has a roughly 60% chance (according to the oddsmakers) to win the World Series this year and had the best record in baseball this season (plus the marquee players to suggest it wasn’t a fluke).
On the other hand, Nathan Eovaldi, Craig Kimbrel, and Ian Kinsler are all expected to enter free agency after the World Series, while Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Chris Sale can walk after 2019, and Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. after 2020. Boston has the money to probably sign sign four of these to long-term deals. Betts would seem to be the most likely to get an extension to keep him from hitting the open market.
Beyond that group, the core players are Andrew Benintendi, then some guys who are talented but somewhat unpredictable in Rafael Devers, David Price, and Eduardo Rodriguez. As for reinforcements, you’ve got the 29th-best farm system with no impact on the horizon, and some issues that sound familiar to Tigers fans after Dave Dombrowski left for Boston.
The payroll is here to keep at least half of the core, but I would imagine the Yankees will become the favorites in that race to avoid the elimination Wild Card game once a few pieces leave Boston. That is why I said earlier that, over the balance of this five-year window, starting next season, it’s close to a 50/50 proposition which of Boston and New York will avoid that Wild Card game and have the much easier road to a title. Anything can happen, but a core built around Andujar, Sanchez, Chad Green, Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres is a better bet for this kind of exercise, with all of those tied up for at least four of the five years we’re considering and all but Stanton at well-below-market rates.
7. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs looked to be on the verge of becoming a dynasty, but things have gone a bit sideways in the last year or so. It’s unclear what Addison Russell’s future is with the club (which is the least important part of his situation); Kris Bryant, Ian Happ and Jose Quintana had down years; basically the entire pitching staff was worse in 2018 than expected, Willson Contreras has some questions about his defense that would greatly impact his long-term value; there are questions about Joe Maddon’s future with the club; and Jason Heyward is making $106 million over the next five seasons.
Now, some good things have happened, like the emergence of Javier Baez and bounce-back years from Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist. There’s still a lot of veteran talent and a big payroll to support such a club. That said, there’s less talent here than on the Red Sox — who I showed above need to be thinking about who to lock up and when — and this situation has some similarities with the Giants, who have been slapping a new coat of paint on the same aging core a little too long and it’s caught up with them.
The Cubs farm system is better than the Red Sox’, but there isn’t a impact type guy here who will prop things up. It’s more depth types and lower-minors types who need to prove themselves. Like the Red Sox, there’s plenty of talent and payroll here to supplement a playoff club and extend its life a bit longer, but it’s going to take more magic that it appeared was necessary a year ago.
Some argued for a couple more teams in this top tier, and a number of organizations are lingering if a few things fall their way:
- The Angels have a high payroll ceiling and the best player in baseball, along with Shohei Ohtani at the minimum salary and an improving farm system. They also have a tough division, Albert Pujols‘ contract, and an uneven recent track record.
- The Phillies have a high payroll ceiling and you could argue they’re just a year or two behind the Braves in the same process. That said, they’ve indicated they won’t spend wildly this offseason, and all but two players in the whole organization are reportedly available in the right deal, so most would like to have a little more certainty about the specific direction.
- The Brewers were one game from the World Series, have a nice core, and possess arguably the most well-regarded front office in baseball. That said, it’s hard to crack this top group as a perennial contender at this kind of payroll disadvantage and without a top-tier farm system.
- The same goes to the Rays and A’s, who often carry the two lowest payrolls in the game but who both assembled playoff-caliber clubs this year. The Rays also have a clear top-five farm system. The margin for error here is so small, I can’t imagine either organization being in the top tier of this sort of ranking, even if they are able to pull of consecutive playoff appearances. The exception would be multiple pre-arb perennial All-Stars popping up at once; Matt Chapman qualifies as such and Wander Franco is on the road to becoming one, so it’s not impossible.
- A number of others could move into the top 10 with some breaks. The Nationals are at a crossroads this offseason. The Cardinals are solid each year and across departments. The Jays have a high payroll ceiling and two top-10-overall prospects. The Twins are moving in a good direction across the board. Colorado just made the playoffs. There are also a number of rebuilding/reloading teams could accelerate their plan with a breakthrough in the next year or two.
Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
Can’t wait to read the comment section in about 24 hours.
Thumbs down on John M i d d l e t o n and Matt Klentak in Philly.
Rebuilds are not automatic success stories.
Lol…looks like the F E L O N Y F R A U D guy is transitioning……
Dodgers for next 5 years are interesting. I think the big question for them is Jansen. Can he rebound? If he doesn’t, that’s a gaping hole for them…. He just turned 31- and had by far his worst season ever.
They probably have enough pitching depth (Baez, Maeda, Urías, Garcia) to stitch together a pen, after adding a guy or two in trade or FA, that’ll come close to what they had the last few years.
Maeda and Urias probably go back to the rotation. Baez has 2 more years before he’s a FA. And it hurts not having that 1 set guy at the back of the pen. We saw it this year with the Dodgers when Jansen went down….
I don’t think Jansen’s replacement would be on the roster currently….
Jansen is already back. He has been as good as ever in the playoffs. I claim to be a Kenley expert and he looks like vintage Kenley the past few weeks. He certainly could break down, but he is good right now. That said, nothing is easier to come by than RP – non-contenders give them away.
And he’s also 31 now. And no matter what he had his worst season ever…..
As far as non-contenders giving closers away- which ones did that exactly? San Diego did but it cost Cleveland a top prospect. I’d hardly call that giving him away…..
Not much news here, just pick the biggest markets with the highest payrolls- same old same old…?
This is a bad take. Take a look at the biggest markets and biggest payrolls. You could argue that just under half on this list (ie 3) wouldn’t be considered in the group of either biggest market or biggest payroll.
The Astros, for example, ranked 9th in payroll for 2018; the Indians 14th and Braves 18th. Could these teams spend more? Probably, but saying that these are all just the biggest markets with the highest payrolls is a disservice to these orgs.
You are ignoring Geography. Houston is the 4th largest and third wealthiest city in the US. They are a large market team who could easily spend as much or more as the Red Sox. Atlanta is the eighth largest city and one of the fastest growing. They have a ton of room to expand spending as well. Cleveland does not fit the narrative, so you can have that one.
Neat, but they aren’t going to expand spending so it doesn’t really matter.
@.majnun basing your conception of a team’s market on how a billionaire chooses to spend his unfathomable amounts of money is futile. Brewers and Tigers have both recently spent far beyond what their “market” would suggest solely based on population and wealth of their locations.
Is Atlanta really growing at a pace to where their placement among the different markets of MLB will change in the next 5 years? Call Atlanta a large market if you want, but then you might as well call Tampa a large market, too.
This basically fits what I was thinking. The best 4 teams in the AL will be good for a while making basically every rebuilding team’s short term chances over the next 3 years less than optimal. Even after that, the best of the AL still have advantages that make it difficult to count them out after that.
You spelled Cincinnati Reds wrong
I’m sorry, the who?
The two yooouuuutttthhhhs
I’m not sure I quite see the Cubs in that top group. Not saying their dynasty window is over by any means, but enough question marks cropped up this year that they have a lot of work to figure out. They do have the flexibility to fix it, but without any prospect of note ready to step in, not sure they would really belong much above the Phillies or Nats (if they both were willing to spend to what they should be able to support). And maybe they still deserve to be 7th, but I don’t quite see them as enough to stand out from the next tier.
This would be interesting to see after free agency.. It’ll change a lot of things…..
Flags fly forever, but how much better a future would the Cubs anticipate by hanging on to Gleyber & Eloy and not signing Darvish, Heyward, and Chatwood? Theo’s looking more like a league-average GM these days.
They wouldn’t take that Gleyber trade back for the world. Eloy is another story.
The “League Average” GM right now has 0 WS wins (depending on how you want to do the math)
Going back to 98, Cashman(4), Sabean, and Theo(3 each) top the list for GM titles.
FFF, and jesus fucking christ when did “finishing the season tied for the most wins in the national league 2 years after winning a world series” constitute a collective “meh”. Also, the team still has a young, talented core and an ownership that’s shown it’s willing to open the pocket books.
I thought the FG crowd understood that the playoffs are just entropy and small sample sizes. This team is still in its contention window, and I can’t imagine they’re going to just take the winter off.
This article attempts to rank teams based on projected success over the next 5 years, so I’m not sure how someone’s accomplishments 5 years ago, let alone 20 years ago, are relevant. Does anyone want Sabean as their GM in today’s MLB?
Now, decisions made 5 years ago are relevant and there, Theo shines as he had for most of his career, since it’s there he found 3 of Kylie’s top-50 in Bryant, Contreras, and Rizzo along with a host of others. He’s still quite good at finding talent in Latin America, which is important since he doesn’t have Top 10 picks in the amateur draft anymore.
I pointed out a lot of recent mistakes he’s made and at $189M in payroll*, I don’t think he has much flexibility to acquire more FA’s since Lester and Morrow don’t roll off until after 2020. (Zobrist rolls off next year, but Baez has a big payday coming.).
League-Average isn’t bad. I think there are a lot of excellent GM’S in the game today.
*https://slackiebrown.com/2018-mlb-team-salary-list/
From you: Theo’s looking more like a league-average GM these days.
Also from you: Now, decisions made 5 years ago are relevant and there, Theo shines as he had for most of his career
Here’s my point, as succinctly as possible: The Cubs are one of the top teams in the national league (top 3 according to this article!). As the GM, some part of that should be attributed to the GM and his ability to put a team together. Saying Theo has fallen in line with the rest of the pack based little more than the team fading in the last month of the 2018 season is bunk. The guy has put together a team that has been performing at a high level for the last 5 years. I’m not making any call on their ability to move up the list (I think they are a good but flawed team at this point and they will live or die based on how well they spend this winter) but rather refuting the idea that Theo is just some middle of the pack schmuck at this point in his career.
No wonder you’re getting so perturbed, you’re inferring things from my comment that I’ve never said.
Moate: “Saying Theo has fallen in line with the rest of the pack based little more than the team fading in the last month of the 2018 season is bunk.”
Shalesh: Theo is league-average because of the trades of Gleyber & Eloy and the signings of Darvish, Heyward, and Chatwood.
Moate: “Theo is just some middle of the pack schmuck at this point in his career.”
Shalesh: “League-Average isn’t bad. I think there are a lot of excellent GM’S in the game today.”
I think the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Rays, Astros, Indians, and A’s are all better ran than the Cubs and the Angels, Padres, Phillies, Twins, Cardinals are at least equally well ran. So that leaves the Cubs somewhere between 9-14, so how about we call it a bit better than league-average?
It’s really sad to me that this article mentioned 17 teams – 57% of the league! – and I can’t even come close to making a case to include the Mariners, even though they just won 89 games. We’re living the worst of both worlds – old team (despite a few but not enough core players in their prime), 80-ish win true talent, ~90 win ceiling, terrible farm system. Only clear path to the playoffs I see in the next 5 years is a Doomsday-level Astros stumble and an A’s regression and sell-off happening simultaneously.
The Diamondbacks are probably in a similar situation. They could lose both Corbin and Pollock, two of their best players, in free agency. Goldschmidt is probably at the back end of his prime, as is Greinke, but the latter has a HUGE contract which probably would hold them back from re-signing at least one of their two departures, much less going after someone else with significant salary demands. Now that they re-signed Escobar, they don’t really have a home for Jake Lamb anymore and may be forced to sell low on him. RF was a back hole with Souza way underperforming. If they aren’t prepared to back up the Brinks truck this year and go for broke (maybe literally), they should sell off all the pieces and do a tear-down rebuild.
On the bright side – rain is expected tomorrow isn’t it?
I think that the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees make the most sense at the top, and then Cleveland and the Braves beyond that also make sense (Cleveland because of their incredible talent now, the Braves because of the talent coming up). And then the Cubs behind that…I can get that. They have a ton of bad payroll and not much in the way of minor league depth, but the core is under contract until 2021. They can make it work.
The Red Sox should be a favorite next year, but once Sale, Porcello, Boegarts, and Martinez leave/decline I think that their chances of being a top notch contender slam shut. They have so much bad payroll and such a bad farm system that unless they’re willing to spend like maniacs (and they will spend more than all but the Dodgers and Yankees, but maybe not like maniacs…) the team is going to have a lot of trouble competing at the very top. I have a hard time seeing how this team is a better bet than the A’s, Phillies, Brewers, Rays, or the Nationals going forward–all of whom have a pretty good ballclub right now and a lot of good talent coming up.
The Sox will be fine and deserve to be on the back of this list. They have an mvp candidate in the outfield, another above average player (who may become a star) out there and a solid host of supporting players (what makes you think X is leaving?). With their resources and Dombo’s creativity, I don’t think they’re going to have too much trouble staying in the hunt.
The other teams you mentioned? The Rays? Good talent but zero money. You need SOME money.
The A’s? While Chapman is a guy you can build around and they’ve got some decent pieces and a good farm system, their young pitching was ruined this year by injuries. It remains to be seen if they’ll bounce back so that’s a huge unknown. Also, very little money.
The Phillies? While they have resources, many of their young players stagnated this year; they have more questions than answers with guys like Kingery and Crawford.
The other two I think you can make a legit case for, especially Washington. I never would have thought you could say they’re better off without Harper but they might be.
I’m curious to see what the Phillies will do this offseason. If they land, say, Machado, and continue supplementing the team in future years, it’s going to be a beast of a team with the depth of pitching in the minors and the rotation they currently have.
I think that the pitching for the A’s is a major concern, especially given the fact that their top two pitching prospects have some injury histories (Puk and Luzardo). But I think you might be underrating their position core, all of whom are under control for a number of years, and which should afford some financial flexibility. And while I’m not sold on their recent drafts overall, keep an eye on Murphy.
I’m actually quite a bit less confident in the Rays than everyone else, because they have shown a maddening interest in competing for the wild-card, and only for the wild-card. I don’t have a lot of faith that this team, even with a really intriguing group of players and prospects across the board, is ever going to be a team to beat.
I think if they add Machado, that will certainly help, but they need to get something out of their young position players other than Hoskins. For being pretty poor the last few years, their farm system isn’t gangbusters by any means (Moniak, Hasely, Randolph, etc.). So that makes it very precarious for them as contenders considering they’re highly dependent on pitching as the backbone of their success. One only needs to look at the Mets from a few years ago to see how that can blow up in a hurry.
Looking at the A’s, I think you’re certainly right; I underrated their position player core, but that rotation is a complete disaster and Manea out with the shoulder injury is scary. Maybe they deserve a place on this list due to their location in the West alone; Houston is a behemoth, but Seattle is about to fall off a cliff, Texas is about to rebuild, and the Angels are too busy screwing up the rest of their roster around Trout to contend. So it’s not just the talent you have, but what division you’re in (which, coincidentally, supports Cleveland’s case over the next 3-4 years).
Frankly, once you get past the top five teams on this list, each organization will have a fairly significant flaw, and some flaws will be greater than others. I think Boston, with their resources and Dombrowski (who, whether people here like it or not, is a very good GM) around, they’re likely to get pretty creative with what they add to the mix.
What if this is the 5 least likely for the next 5 years??
Giants, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, and Royals???
I think you nailed it. Those are the clear bottom 5. Rangers being an Honorable mention
Yeah. And one that might be pretty high up there on the list- Arizona. I think we’re getting set to see them with a pretty full rebuild.
I’d add the Mariners. Some nice players on their major-league roster, but not enough and Cano is vastly overpaid. Terrible farm system.
Aside from the Marlins and Orioles, it’s hard to think of any teams that I can say right now, “they will not win any world series in 2023 or before.”
If you want a third team, I’m tempted to put the Mets, not because they’re untalented, but because nothing good is ever going to happen to them, ever.
Have you seen the Giants contracts situation? It’s bad, real bad…..
I actually think the Giants could maybe, maybe make a run next year. But lots of things have to go right. Belt, Posey, and Crawford have to turn back the clock, at least a little bit, maybe more than that. Bumgarner has to be healthy. They have to spend a lot in free agency, and I mean a lot–like signing Harper, Pollock, and Corbin. It’s certainly not likely, but they could do it. It’s hard to bet against teams who spend that much–and having an already decent-ish team–not having any chance at all.
That said, by 2021, this team is going to be toast.
“If the Giants sign three of the four best free agents, and some other stuff that won’t happen, they’ve got a chance!”
Except it might. A zero percent chance is almost impossible. The Giants haven’t reached that yet.
The Orioles, though? They’ve reached it. It’s very difficult to see how they’re going to break .500 in the next 5 years, much less win the world series.
Why would the Giants be toast in 2021? I expect the Giants to be terrible in 2019-20 but then the young guns (Joey Bart, Heliot Ramos, Sean Hjelle, Shaun Anderson, etc.) will start making some noise in 2021-22. I don’t expect the Giants to contend until 2021-22. The Giants will draft at #10 in 2019 so that should net them another high ceiling prospect especially if they draft a college player. Also, this summer the Giants signed the #2 prospect from Latin America, Marco Luciano. He’s only 16 so he’s probably five years from potentially reaching the majors.
If you think the Giants are expensive and bad in 2019, wait until you see what it’s like in 2020 or (especially) 2021. Joey Bart and Shaun Anderson should be big league contributors by then, but not likely to be stars (at least not yet). The super high upside prospects like Canario, Ramos, and Luciano will still be a few years away, and that’s all the prospects they have of note. Bumgarner will be gone or paid a zillion dollars by that point. And they’ll have approximately $75 million dollars that are tied up in Posey, Belt, Crawford, Longoria, and Cueto, most of whom will be pretty bad and all of whom will likely be worse than an average regular. They might be able to turn back the clock a couple years in 2019, but by 2021? Forget it. (the salary situation is even more dire the year before, when Melancon and Samardzija add another $35 million). It’s likely they won’t control a single league-average player in 2021 except for Suarez and Blach, Bart, and maaaaaybe Anderson, Stratton, and Duggar.
The difference is between predicting the weather and the climate. If you are asked to predict whether it’s going to rain one month from now, you probably can’t. If you are being asked to predict whether it will be colder in December than in October (in North America), then you can be pretty sure it will be. This is how it is with the Giants. Flukes could theoretically happen in 2019, but by 2021 the “flukes” would be them repeating their performance in 2018, not the one in 2016. And that obviously isn’t going to cut it.
That said, I’d certainly put the Giants somewhere in the bottom ten of likelihood to win the WS in 2019, and there are some pretty lousy teams keeping them company down there. And obviously, if the Giants hire a GM who does the obvious move and starts selling off anything of value, then they’re toast in 2019 too.
@sadtrombone
While I agree with you overall, using 2018 (or 2017, for that matter) to define the Giants isn’t really fair. They have dealt with a tremendous amount of injury to key players the last two seasons, and would likely have competed for a WC if they were reasonably healthy. That doesn’t say anything about 2021, of course, but you can’t equate injuries with poor performance.
I’m a Giants fan and you exceed, by far, whatever optimism I might have. No, they are baked for several years. I never thought I would say this…but trading Bumgarner is a good idea. They can finish in last with or without him.
Unfortunately, Bumgarner just hasn’t been the same since the accident. I doubt he’s ever going to be that guy again.
I’m not even sure I’d include the Marlins. Their rebuild is underway, they’re investing in foreign players, will have very high draft picks for the next couple years, and (presumably) will have money to spend when the time is right. It’s not a stretch at all to see them making a run in 2022 or 2023.
The Orioles make sense because even though they’ll have some high picks, they’re incredibly poorly run and have much stiffer competition in the AL East. Though it’s possible to see them being better than Boston in 2022 or so if you squint hard enough, unless Boston just completely goes crazy and spends to keep all of their free agents.
It’s tough though because they’ve got the Braves for sure- and odds pretty darn sure they’ll have at least 1 of Phillies/Nationals to worry with……
The other thing that we’ve not even considered is the CBA is up after 2021. So 2022 and 23 could have some changes that could be big in all of this.
I’m not sure about the Nationals – best case for them, Soto and Robles will be expensive by then, and there’s not all that much else. If they resign Harper, that’s obviously a big dent in the payroll, and it guarantees they won’t kick off a rebuild once Rendon is gone next year. Scherzer will be gone, and who knows was Strasburg will be by 2023? In short, I can see this team being very mediocre in 5 years.
CBA is an interesting point – but it’s hard to see any changes made in 2021 having a significant impact for 2022 or 23. Of course we never know, something drastic could change.
Also I don’t think Atlanta is a given. Freeman and Folty are gone. Is Albies a FA in 23 or 24? They may be at the end of the road in 2022-23. Though of course they have the pitching prospects who can soon make an impact and will keep them relevant until then.
I guess my overall point is that unless the team has very prominent players who will still be under control in 2023 and/or a ton of money to spend (scarily, the Yankees have both), it’s really tough to say who will be that good 5 years from now. Picking the teams who are just starting their rebuilds seems like as good a bet as those who will be losing their top players in 5 years.
(And, I realize that the point of this post was not who will win in 2023 – it’s who will win from 2019-2023 – I’m focusing just on the end of that period.)
I think you shouldn’t be focussing on the end of the period but the whole time frame. If someone is good 19-22 and done in 23 he belongs on the list, nobody is good forever.
I’m also sceptical on the nats, mostly because of pitching depth. When Scherzer and strasburg are gone they have zero pitching prospects to fill in. Soto, robles and kieboom can’t win without pitching.
I could see the nats rebuilding in a year or two.
I’d have liked the Marlins’ chances a lot better if they had traded Realmuto for Robles when they had the chance, or otherwise would trade Realmuto for some really good prospects. But the farm system isn’t really all that good, it’s likely going to take a long time for the top picks in 2019 and 2020 to turn into stars, and it’s not at all clear that the Marlins’ top leadership is especially good at their jobs.
I think you are wrong about the Marlins. Their owners need to recoup something like $500 m in debt. Even if they made $50 this year, they have a long way to go before they are going to spend. Otherwise, why not keep Stanton? It’s not like they got much for him, so it was mostly a money dump.
And a timely dump it was, since I don’t think his contract would be tradeable now after posting only a 4 WAR year.
Kansas City?
You forgot the White Sox
I don’t know…5 years is a long time. How would you have rated the Royals chances in 2010, say?
The least likely teams would have to be those with contention windows that are just ending now. Arizona is the obvious choice, but even then a rebuild can certainly happen within 4-5 years. Not sure who else fits that description – maybe Minnesota?
Wasn’t the Royals farm system in the early 10s absolutely stacked?
Yeah, seems right. The early 10s Royals compare pretty well to the current Padres, I think.
Exactly.
I think I sprained something after reading the 1000th article praising Ned Yost for being such a pioneer/genius for his bullpen arrangement of Davis/Herrera/Holland.
Seriously, as if he discovered fire, and no one else would have loved to stack three pitchers like that for 7/8/9.
Royals had a group of players come up from the farm that launched them forward, and bringing Cain/Escobar back put them over the top. That was not a team that was completely off the radar.
I could easily see some things breaking right for the Tigers and them being competitive in the next 5 years. They are pretty clearly above those other 4 teams IMO. I think their farm is underrated and their division is weak.
I may not conform to consensus, but I watch the NL east closely and see the Marlins as a .500 team in at least 3 years, so I wouldn’t call them bottom 5. Bottom 6 to 10 more likely, but definitely higher if guys like Brinson live up to their FVs. Texas is probably bottom 5.
The Indians seem a bit overrated. They play in a crazy weak division, but they never really ran away with it like you might have expected. The rotation is great and the left side of the infield is incredible, but that’s where the praise ends, right? Weak OF, weak bullpen, and key pieces leaving in both of those spots. I’m not very familiar with their MiLB system, but outside McKenzie (another rotation piece), I was under the impression they weren’t a particularly special crop.
And there is no real reason to mention it, because fast rebuilds are rare, but the White Sox sure have a lot of talent floating around the high minors.
A “crazy weak division” is a huge deal though. WS odds are all about making it to the divisional series (and avoiding the WC game). If you accept that the Indians, right now, look like the best team in that division for the he next 3 years and are 80% or higher odds to win the division those years that puts them in a great spot. Any year they’re in the divisional series they have at least a 1/10 shot at a title, even if they’re the worst team there.
If you believe those odds are generally right or within range, they equal about a 22% chance of a WS title over the next 3 years, which is just stupid high compared to most teams (even superior teams) that can’t count on such high division champ odds.
And if you want to be a bit more kind to the Indians and call them an average-ish playoff team with a 1/8 chance, which I think is more accurate, that goes up to a 27% chance at a title in the next 3 yrs.
Indians are a surprisingly old team. Baseball Reference shows that they used the 4th oldest hitters in baseball last year and the 6th oldest pitchers. With much of the team coming back next year, they could rank even worse. And old teams can fall apart at any time due to injury and declining skills.
They’ll probably give extended opportunities to Naquin, Greg Allen and Yandy Diaz this coming year. But they’re headed into their age 28, 26, 27 seasons respectively. So it’s not like they’re super young. The problem is that they have no bats in the upper minors that can help the offense, not after the poor seasons by Bradley and Chang. The best hitting prospect at this point is Nolan Jones and he just reached A ball at the end of the year.
Lindor and Ramirez are still really young though, and might somehow be improving still. They do need outfield help, though.
Twins, Tigers and especially Chicago have promising farm systems. Now is really the time for CLE to go all in before their core gets older/more expensive and their division rivals start turning the corner into competitive teams
It’s easy to imagine a scenario where Kluber and Carrasco fall apart and the team goes down the tubes, but it’s also not too hard to imagine them fixing the bullpen and being a powerhouse again.
So yes, they have holes and downside, but the holes they have are among the easiest to fill so there’s considerable upside as well. Having multiple superstars and need to fill holes around them with decent regulars beats the pants off the opposite scenario.
The problem is that it puts all the pressure on Lindor and Ramirez. What happens if one or both of them gets hurt or underperforms? Who is there to step up – Kipnis, EE, Alonso. Gomes? They all add value but they’re also in the decline phase of their careers.
I also think it will be a lot harder to rebuild the bullpen than you suggest. Hand is the closer but who else can you rely on? Olson? Otero? Cimber? They need about 3-4 new arms.
I remember an episode of Effectively Wild where they did the same challenge. It’s quite funny in hindsight at how bad they were with their guesses. (Ben and Sam are awesome. I’m not knocking them at all)
I guess my point is that by picking almost 1/4 of the league for the next 5 years… I think there’s bound to be a winner from the group. But I also think most of these picks will look quite funny in 2 or 3 years.
Yeah, I think Dave Cameron wrote a series here ranking major-league organizations 5 or 6 years ago that was hilariously invalid only a year later.
#6org
#neverforget
Have to say, things don’t look very good for Boston after 2020. Of course you can never count them out because of how well they’re run and because of their willingness to spend, but they have an core of cheap, incredibly valuable players right now. As mentioned, they will have spend through the nose to keep them, and nearly all of them are becoming free agents in the same 2-year period.
I argued awhile ago that they should have really went all-in this year and traded whatever they had for guys like Realmuto and another starter to maximize their chances of winning from 2018-2020. It will be really interesting to see what their plan is from 2021 on.
A couple of years ago the Red Sox farm system was rated the best in the game and Dave Dombrowski was drawn and quartered for trading many of these players for proven major league stars, Kimbrel and Sale and a valuable piece in Pomeranz. Let us revisit these moves and other subsequent Dombrowski acquisitions. The Red Sox are having an historic season which would not have been possible without Dombrowski’s astute moves. The players, many considered top prospects have failed, almost completely, to establish themselves as even average major leaguers. San Diego was fleeced in both deals. Espinoza may yet be something but his arm injury is reason to be doubtful and the top prospects in the KImbrel haul should just be hauled away. Margot, not much there, Asuaje, not much there, Guerra, nothing there but Allen may provide some solace in the future. The White Sox didn’t do any better. It is reasonable to say that even if Moncada, Kopech and Basabe become stars the Red Sox still come out very well and at this moment there is considerable doubt surrounding all of these players. Moncada is a strange case and I don’t see much value in 217 K’s. Kopech’s arm has to be reattached and that is never a sure thing while Basabe still hasn’t seen pitching he can hit and it doesn’t get any easier. Diaz is already out of baseball. Summing this up, the Red Sox would not be where they are now and a future with a core based on the players Dombrowski traded away would look more like the 2018 Orioles than the Red Sox.
Yeah, Dombrowski is not a SABR-kind of GM, but he sure knows which of his own prospects to keep (Benintendi & Devers) and which to trade away. I think Jon’s (and SadTrombone’s above) point is that by trading the prospects the BoSox concentrated their resources in a shorter window and you’re saying that the prospects weren’t as good as hyped and wouldn’t have extended the window much anyway.
That is absolutely my point. Dombrowski didn’t shorten their window but, rather, enhanced the window that is there. Keeping stiffs like Margot, Guerra, Asuaje, a couple of pitchers who have broken down already, and one must never forget TINSTAAP, along with a few other prospects was not going to extend anything but was only going to destroy the franchise. Interestingly, Dombrowski was just on MLB’s pre-game coverage discussing his use of prospects to get real players, like Miguel Cabrera and reminded the hosts that he sent Cameron Maybin to Miami, not Justin Verlander.
That’s pretty much it. Winning now is seriously underrated. When you are ready to go for it, Dombrowski does it, and it looks like it’s paying off.
The thing about Dombrowski (as you note) is that he’s so good at knowing which prospects to keep and which ones to trade. His hit rate on that sort of thing is great, and so while he certainly gets low marks in terms of efficiency (he could almost certainly extract more value from his trades, as assessed at the time) he’s incredibly effective.
I think there are a lot of ways that he could have done better. For example, the Espinosa for Pomeranz deal, while it actually looks like it’s going to be a big win in terms of actual value, was not very efficient. If he had included Espinosa in the deal instead of Kopech for Sale, they’d still have Kopech to trade or use. Trading for elite and controllable relievers like Thornburg and Smith? Not very efficient. He overpaid for Kimbrel given what the Padres’ gave up just the year before, but that has turned out well for them and will likely be a win on value as well. Dombrowski just knows that there are guys whose value is high now, may not be high in a year or two, and aren’t likely to pan out, and he’s very aggressive at flipping them for stuff that is less risky.
The entire industry said he overpaid for Kimbrel, the reality is that he stole Kimbrel. Was Dombrowski so skillful that he read between the lines of the scouting reports and understood that Margot, Guerra, a complete bust who was a key to the deal, and Asuaje were below average players or was he just plain lucky? It is difficult to measure how efficient he was. The Sox had to get a closer and if he waited for a perfect deal on KImbrel the flaws in the players traded might have been exposed and the deal would not have happened. Sale is Sale and anytime a very large diamond is on offer you do not wait around and haggle. For this type of quality “The Price is the Price.” He missed on Smith, even though giving Miley away at the time was addition by subtraction, and Thornburg was lost to injury, which happens. Relievers are a notoriously erratic bunch. A few top guys are consistent but the rest are yo-yo’s. How do you think the Rockies feel having Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw, and their -1.9 WAR, on the books for $36M through 2020. Dombrowski receives a Get Out of Jail Free card for those tries.
Moncada’s already established himself as an average MLB starter, even with the contact issues, and Kopech shouldn’t be sent to the glue factory after his first injury.
Otherwise…yeah. Dombrowski gets hate from the type of fan who likes to loudly tell everyone how much he “gets” SABR, but he’s an excellent GM.
I don’t have disagreements with the list, but it would be interesting to re-do it after free agents sign.
Maybe it’s just the natural pessimism of die-hard fandom, but I’m most suspicious of the Braves on this list. All of their young hitters come with pretty big red flags in their recent performance, Acuna being the immaculate exception. They’re marginal bidders at best for elite free agents (they can really only afford one at any given time). And the rest depends on young pitching, which…oof, that’s scary. Plus, the Nationals and Phillies have young positional talent and a lot more to spend.
All that is to say, as I watched Acuna round the bases after that Game 3 grand slam, I knew there was a decent chance that was the peak for this version of the team. And you could do a hell of a lot worse than that.
Do you just mean…Hoskins? Who else do they have and how could you rationally prefer it to Acuna, Albies, Camargo, and Riley? (Throw in Swanson if you like, who despite his failure to develop with the bat was as good as any non-Hoskins Philly position player this year.)
Phillies young positional talent looks very weak to me. The farm is pretty is weak as well IMO. Their rotation is very promising though
All of their young hitters aside from Acuna. So I assume this means Albies, Camargo, and Swanson, right? Albies does have a bad chase tendency, but players who are as good as he is at 21 generally have very good futures. Unless the power disappears, he should be above average even if he never really learns the strike zone. I’ll give you Swanson, though he is still a good asset as long as the defense holds up. What are Camargo’s red flags? For the life of me I can’t think of one.
Also, the Braves have Freeman for the next three years (Ender isn’t a bad player, either, and we have him for 3+1 years).
If you bolster the bullpen and maybe add a front-line-ish starter (not Kershaw, probably not Dallas either), then this team should be favored to win the division, and should compete unless a bunch of these guys all take steps back, which seems at least as improbable as all the steps forward that occurred this year. Possible, but not likely.
I would like to be the guy that points out the Braves as the team that I don’t think is in the conversation. Maybe I end up looking like a fool, but I think they are getting too much credit for beating up on a historically weak division. Winning that division is easy and should only be easier next year, but there isn’t such an easy path to a World Series.
A Historically weak division? Are you kidding me?
This year the division went 392-417. .485 winning percentage. That’s not even REMOTELY close to being a historically weak division.
When you strip out the results against each other (190-190) then the results against the rest of the league is 163-267 0.379% and every team posted a losing record. That might be a more relevant statistic
One of you got your numbers off by a lot. It was you.
You are thinking of the AL Central. They went 353-457 and when you strip that out it’s the 163-267 vs other teams in MLB. The AL Central WAS historically weak… Actually they were the WORST ever…..
That’s 202-227, for a .470 winning percentage
The gangster move here would have been a one word column.
Oak could really use there own post on this subject since they are about to go through a radical shift over the next five seasons while a young team with low costs over the next few seasons is competitive. This team could theoretically run payrolls up against the luxury by 2024-25. They also will over the next few years be in that one time only position of being able to ramp up payroll into a big spender with no bad long contracts to work around at the start.
Oak is projecting 2023 for the new ball park opening. The team is currently in an exclusive window to buy the colosseum property, and the state legislature passed the bill intended to streamline a potential Howard terminal park.
Oak is in one of the top 3 media markets in the country. Oak has a 2023 opt out of there TV deal.
Oak has a farm system that was ranked in the top 10 last winter by most publications. They had a good draft based on analysis and results so far, and will be out of the penalty box for international signings next year when they draft lower. One thing they have a number of is high upside close to the majors starting pitching, and a good catcher coming soon, and wouldn’t you know thats just what the team needs on the MLB roster.
Oak still has almost zero future payroll commits so they can look to extend the youngsters with most of the higher payroll years banked after the new park. The team I think will crack 100M this winter for the first time. Oak ownership has some of the deepest pockets in baseball, which is why they are self funding the new park, and the team should be able to afford to lose money for the next couple years while establishing a perennial contender, with some stars signed since the investment will be returned tenfold on the TV contract they are able to get.
Oak has one of the best FO in baseball.
The A’s have a really nice core, with one superstar (Chapman) and a bunch of players who are likely to range somewhere between stars and average starters (Semien, Piscotty, Olson, Laureano) under control for a while, with some nice talent coming up (Murphy, Luzardo, Puk). But the starting pitching is a problem, and (more importantly) the idea that the A’s are going to suddenly start spending freely is madness. There are real question marks about whether the ownership, despite the money, is going to spend to win.
Really? under what do you base your assertion that once revenue rises Oak will continue to operate this way? The whole crux of my post is that on top of the rise in attendance that Oak will benefit from in a new stadium, that in the media market they are in they should expect 3-4x the Tv revenue, where Tv revenue alone would cover a payroll double what it is now.
Revenue increase = Spending increase
That seems fairly obvious to me. The reason to spend in 2020-2022 is if you are attempting to negotiate a new Tv deal having improving attendance, a competitive team, high ratings, and some legit name stars locked up long term to the Tv deal. Look at the LAD they did virtually the same thing juje up the product just in time to sell the rights to view it for more.
Some people seem to forget that the team owners now havent been the Shotze group that refused to take on 300k for Rincon in money ball.
Everyone is on board on advanced metrics ie, so Considering the payroll discrepancies this list won’t likely change for years and years. Sure some team not on this list will occasionally get lucky and have a few stars mature at the same time, but the rich will almost always dominate the poor unless the poor can out think them somehow. Right now that does not look like something the small markets can do consistently (except maybe the Rays).
The team you will regret not giving a mention to by next fall will be the White Sox I would say. Their disappointing 2018 masks a strong potential for an explosion into contention over the next 3 years.
I am big Cubs fan #1. I of course believe they will win again because I am a homer.
However; if I were writing this article I would have a hard time keeping the Padres out of it. I think on top of the great farm system, they will spend money in FA to make additions when available.
However; the Hosmer signing was bad. And I don’t know how much payroll flexibility they have while also having an albatross contract. And you know what. I know this isn’t the subject but why they hell was Hosmer starting at first in the WBC over Paul Goldshcmidt? Paul is better in every facet of the game.
One thing that is worth keeping an eye on with the Angels is how the team develops heading into next year with a new manager. There have been some truly indefensible decisions made in running the team the last few years, most blatantly Pujols still being slotted in at the 4 hole every game with a wrc+ that has struggled to touch 90 for two years. If he finally gets benched or DFA’d and the Angels actually acquire starters this season on the FA market, I think they’ll be well-positioned (especially if the Astros lose some depth to FAs). Between Trout, Simmons, and Ohtani, you can probably project 15 WAR in both 2019 and 2020. 30 WAR needed from 22 players is a simplistic way of thinking about the team’s needs, but illustrates how much their top-end should give them a solid opportunity as long as Trout is on the payroll.
It must really stink being a Padres fan (if there is such a thing). They have been terrible during this “rebuild,” then don’t even get mentioned as one of the up-n-comers. Heck, the word. “Padres” was mentioned only once in the entire article and comment section.
As a Padres fan (yes we do exist) I can say that it does stink and I did hope that the Padres would be mentioned in this article but i’m not surprised that they weren’t.
“No team in this division appears poised to roll out a top-five payroll over the next few years.” Isn’t that exactly what the Phillies are expected to do?
Doing a Fangraphs crowd source project on these 5 year WS projections with all 30 teams would be interesting.
BTW, The Angels hiring of Ausmus has to drop them down the list. Watching seemingly half his old Detroit players (JV, Price, Kinsler, JD, Porcello, etc) possibly win WS titles the last 2 years is painful for a Detroit fan.
I guess it’s good for us Red Sox fans that we now have a 2-0 edge in the current World Series, since we don’t have much chance of winning any of the next five :-).
On the other hand, even if we don’t win for a while, we can be happy that we’ve won 3 (or 4) in the last 15 years. Not quite Yankees territory, but very nice compared other teams.