Hindsight Is Better Than 20/20 for Jack Suwinski

Let me tell you a couple of things about Jack Suwinski. First, when Suwinski was still a prospect last winter, Eric Longenhagen had this to say about the young player’s future:

30. Jack Suwinski, DH

“On-paper performance is especially important for a hitter like Suwinski because he’s a positionless defender who needs to rake to have any sort of big league role […] Because he lacks a true position, Suwinski’s chances of playing a significant role increase with the likely implementation of the universal DH.”

It’s rare to see a prospect listed as a designated hitter. Across all 30 lists our team put together last year, only nine ranked prospects had the letters “DH” written next to their name. That’s less than one percent. Even more unusual was the 20/20 grade Eric gave Suwinksi’s fielding tool. That’s the worst grade you can get: a present 20 and a future 20. Essentially, it means a guy is unplayable in the field with little to no hope of improving in the future. Often, the only time you’ll see a 20/20 in any category is to describe a catcher’s speed. Former FanGraphs prospect guru Kiley McDaniel didn’t even bother to define a 20 grade in his overview of the 20-80 scouting scale, explaining “It’s almost never relevant for players that I’ll be writing about or any of their tools.”

A player needs to really hit to compensate for such a poor glove. That’s why it’s so uncommon for someone with a 20/20 fielding grade to make a top prospect list. Only four prospects received the worst possible fielding grade last year – that’s one third of one percent of all the players ranked.

So, Suwinski was a rare DH prospect and an uber-rare 20/20-grade defender. That’s the first thing I wanted to tell you about him. As for the second thing? Well, as of Opening Day 2023, Jack Suwinski is a bona fide center fielder.

When the Pirates took the field on Opening Day, Suwinski grabbed his glove and took his position. He had played center field before, but only in limited doses. It was never his full-time job. Suwinski was drafted out of high school by the Padres and spent 55 games in center during his age-17 and 18 seasons. Over the next four years, he played just nine more games in center field.

At the 2021 trade deadline, Suwinski was dealt to the Pirates as part of the package for Adam Frazier. He wouldn’t play center again until he was standing on the outfield grass in PNC Park more than eight months later. Even then, he was only playing the position out of necessity; backup center fielder Jake Marisnick had injured his thumb, and Pittsburgh was low on options. However, the Pirates clearly liked what they saw from their emergency replacement. Suwinski was demoted shortly after Marisnick returned, but he kept practicing in center at Triple-A. He earned another call-up in late August and continued to nab the occasional start in center field.

Watch a few clips, and it’s not hard to see why the Pirates were so impressed. Suwinski didn’t play enough center to prove he could handle the position full-time, but he looked capable enough to warrant a bigger opportunity:

That shot from Albert Pujols came off the bat at 100 mph, and it was quite the run for Suwinski to track it down. He was positioned over toward right field, but he took a nice, straight route to reach the ball in left-center, deftly grabbing it just before he hit the wall.

This liner from Rowdy Tellez came off the bat even faster, giving Suwinski less time to react:

Perhaps a better fielder wouldn’t have needed to dive, but this was still an excellent display of athleticism. It’s also impressive how quickly Suwinski got up to throw the ball in. A couple of great plays don’t prove Suwinski is a great center fielder, but come on, can you imagine a DH-type (like Pujols or Tellez) making either of those catches?

The metrics support the eye test, further supporting Suwinski’s defensive breakout. In 113 games last season, he put up 2 DRS, 4.0 UZR, and 1 OAA. He was at his best in center field, with 1 DRS, 3.9 UZR, and 1 OAA in 19 games. The fielding metrics at Baseball Prospectus were similarly high on his outfield defense; he was worth 2.2 DRP in center field and 6.1 DRP overall. Take these numbers with a big ol’ grain of salt – his playing time was limited, especially in center – but still, it’s encouraging that the numbers were positive and that all the varying metrics seem to agree.

Speaking to reporters this February, manager Derek Shelton confirmed how happy he was with Suwinski’s development: “Last year, he became a better outfielder as the season went on at the major league level. I think we’re going to continue to get a look at that.”

True to his word, Shelton gave Suwinski plenty of opportunities in center field this spring. Most people would tell you he looked pretty good:

Suwinski ended up playing more center than either left or right, and indeed, he played more center field than anyone else on the Pirates roster. It wasn’t long before it seemed as if he really could be the Opening Day center fielder.

So, where did this defensive breakout come from? It’s certainly possible that Suwinski’s prospect evaluation was a bit too harsh, but 20/20 is a damning grade, and it’s not one to be issued lightly. Moreover, it’s not as if FanGraphs was the only publication to criticize his glove. Keith Law of The Athletic called Suwinski “a platoon bat off the bench who can sort of play an outfield corner, but not well.” Baseball America wasn’t quite so brutal, but they still considered him a bat-first corner outfielder who wasn’t “a dynamic athlete defensively.” Ultimately, Suwinski didn’t get much attention as a prospect, but you have to presume that if anyone really thought he could play center field, he would have warranted a closer look.

As Derek Shelton expressed, Suwinski improved with practice throughout the 2022 season. I’m sure he did, but all the same, a few months of practice can’t explain how he took such a big step forward. Instead, I think the better explanation is that Suwinski is faster than we thought. He earned a 30/30 running grade on our 2022 rankings, while Baseball America called him “an average runner” on their equivalent list. Yet Suwinski ranked in the 84th percentile in sprint speed last season, and his 90-foot sprint time was even better. He was particularly quick in the first 30 feet from home to first, ranking in the 91st percentile alongside outfielders like Ronald Acuña Jr. and Brandon Nimmo. His outfielder jump numbers were poor because his reaction time was slow, but once he got moving, he had the wheels to cover plenty of ground:

This offseason, Suwinski told reporters that center field is the position he feels most comfortable playing because he wants to have room to run. His manager agrees it’s a good fit; he likes how Suwinski moves in center. It’s possible the young outfielder’s glove was under-appreciated when playing the corners, since covering ground is his most valuable skill.

Bryan Reynolds was also impressed with Suwinski’s defense, praising his “good routes” and quick footspeed. Reynolds has been the primary center fielder in Pittsburgh since partway through the 2020 season. His defense has come into question as of late, but he’s not so far removed from a Gold Glove finalist campaign in 2021. He posted 11 OAA that year. It really says something about Suwinski that the Pirates are willing to give him reps over Reynolds in center field. (The cynical voice in the back of my head wonders if this is part of a ploy to diminish Reynolds’s value in extension talks, but I don’t really believe that.)

Thus far in 2023, Reynolds has played 23 innings in center and Suwinski only 11. Ji Hwan Bae has grabbed a couple of games as well. It’s hard to gauge how much playing time Suwinski will see going forward, but it’s clear he isn’t the full-time center fielder just yet. However, that’s likely the result of his poor performance at the plate (.642 OPS this spring, .444 OPS in the regular season) more so than anything else.

No matter what happens from here on out, Jack Suwinski has already done an incredible thing. Over the past year, he has significantly improved his prospects by developing into a viable option in center field. It’s far too soon to say if he’ll be good out there, but just handling one of the most demanding positions on the diamond is a valuable skill in and of itself. Major league teams (and yes, even the Pirates) don’t hand out Opening Day starts to just anyone, especially when they already have an All-Star center fielder on the roster. Suwinski took his opportunity in center field and ran with it – quite literally. It’s the kind of baseball success story you love to see.