Houston Astros Top 38 Prospects

Built like an outside linebacker at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds or so, Smith slashed .331/.420/.594 during his career at Florida State, and showed substantial improvement to his strikeout and walk peripherals as a draft-eligible sophomore. The Cubs selected him 14th overall (he was seventh on our Draft Board), and Smith posted strong contact and power numbers after he signed. He slashed .313/.396/.609 in 134 PA after the draft, with an 84% zone contact rate (77% overall), 111 mph max exit velo, 107 mph EV90 (the big league average is 104-105), and 43% hard-hit rate. Those are pretty good, and they reinforced Smith’s fairly aggressive draft ranking. He was then traded to Houston as part of the Kyle Tucker deal.

Big all-fields power headlines Smith’s profile. He’s a super strong guy who can generate huge power with little mechanical distance. His swing changed during his sophomore year and he now looks like a more crouched Alec Bohm, with simple footwork, no stride with two strikes, a shallow load, and a bat path that tends to lift the ball less often than is ideal for someone with this kind of juice. Sometimes Smith’s lower half is so stagnant that it looks like it’s preventing him from getting to pitches on the outer edge; he ends up stuck in the mud and can’t reach out there. The same could be said for Smith’s swing overall, which detracts somewhat from his athleticism. He’s definitely strong enough to hit for power with a simple swing, though he doesn’t always look comfortable with the one he’s got right now.

On defense, Smith has rare bend for an athlete his size and at times makes incredible plays for such a big guy, making us bullish that he could be a plus defender at third base. He’s very fast for his size and remarkably graceful, to the point where the Astros bet on him being able to handle a move to right field in his rookie season that doubles as his first full year of professional baseball. It’s a great credit to Smith that his defensive metrics there range between fair and plus, since his novice route running and other hallmarks of his inexperience are regularly bubbling to the surface. Just when his misreads look like they’re going to drive the action, Smith’s plus speed and/or throwing arm pop up to battle them to a draw. Smith graduated as a 50 FV prospect, with inexperience and a swing not optimized for his raw power pumping the brakes on a more aggressive evaluation. Since both issues are still present even while Smith cruises toward a 3-WAR rookie season, floating around a 120 wRC+ at the All-Star break despite only intermittent power, that evaluation may have been light.

Melton has drastically cut excess chase from his game. He posted a contact rate over 80% for the first time in his career during his brief stint in Triple-A this year, has comfortably plus left-handed pop, and is absolutely stinging the ball. He not only posted a nutty 58% hard-hit rate in 17 games at Sugar Land despite dealing with a groin injury in spring, but he matched it in his 11-game big league debut before going down with a fairly significant ankle sprain. On top of that, he can moonlight in center field, and at least provide enough coverage there to avoid rostering a glove-only backup. These are typically the bones of an everyday regular projection, especially for a hitter who has progressively improved and defied doubts about his swing since a dominant career at Oregon State.

Except there are still some questions about his swing. Melton covers the plate beautifully and consistently stings the baseball, but it’s a level cut that isn’t geared for loft, nor is his approach particularly pull-oriented against velocity. Melton has improved against left-handed pitching after spending most of his career battling The Mendoza line against southpaws, but not enough to be a great use of a corner spot when building out a lineup, which is clearly where most of his playing time is going to come. As such, he profiles as the strong side of a corner platoon whose center field versatility makes him an especially useful roster piece for as long as he maintains it, but isn’t quite a set-it-and-forget-it everyday regular.

A 6-foot-4 Cuban outfielder with very exciting left-handed power projection, Alvarez has a big, prototypical corner outfield frame in the Nick Castellanos mold. His hands work with natural loft, and he has a traditional low-ball lefty scoop. His lever length creates some hit tool risk, but Alvarez might be able to shorten up as he gets stronger, and he’s encouragingly maintained a 77% contact rate in his initial DSL action amid flashes of impact power. He’s still fast enough at this stage of his physical development to try center field in pro ball, but realistically (and perhaps ideally) Alvarez will be too big at maturity to play there. A below-average arm limits him to left field if that’s the case, but the raw power to clear the bar at that position is going to be there. He’s a potential three- or four-hole hitter who hits 25-plus bombs.

With Matthews getting called up to make his major league debut this weekend for an Astros team trying to figure out life without Jeremy Peña for a while, it’s a source of concern that the red flags in the former first rounder’s profile from a year ago have either remained or even turned a deeper shade of crimson. Matthews is a special all-around athlete with electric bat speed that produces exit velos above the major league average out of a schmedium frame. But despite the level plane of his swing path, Matthews is still swinging under high fastballs at a truly prodigious rate and doesn’t elevate the ball enough to wring out the full rewards when he does make contact. He recognizes and tracks spin well, so it speaks to how profound his in-zone issues are that Matthews still stuck out 30% of the time in Triple-A this year, with a BABIP over .400 helping to prop up a .283/.400/.476 line.

His play clock and throwing inaccuracy drove doubts about his ability to stay at short, and now Matthews is just straight-up a second baseman, which puts less pressure on both matters, though he has the wheels and acceleration to make center field more than an occasional dalliance if the Astros ever have the notion. Really, Matthews has the tools to do a lot of things on the diamond, including swiping 25 bags in 73 games at Sugar Land this season. And as much as this promotion finds him primed to get worked over by big league four-seamers, Matthews’ tools and athleticism command respect and acknowledgement that he could easily improve. His quick wrists seem like more intractable elements of his game than the late hand load that keeps him from getting out in front of fastballs. But upon his arrival in Houston, he doesn’t hit enough to be assured of everyday work.

Janek is proof that while the Astros can trade Korey Lee, the idea of taking an athletic college catcher with a cannon for a right arm and hit tool questions at the back of the first round endures. Defensive honors started rolling in for Janek at the outset of his three years at Sam Houston State, but the Buster Posey Award for top collegiate catcher and first round buzz came on the heels of a massive junior year at the plate. Janek hit .368/.480/.714 with 17 home runs to win Conference USA Player of the Year honors, and prop up notions that he could hit enough to support an exciting defensive toolkit à la Jimmy Crooks. If any franchise might adopt this plan, it’s the one that won a World Series with Martín Maldonado behind the plate.

Listed at six-foot even, Janek is a compact athlete with quick hands and wrists, which combines with his comfortably plus arm strength for on-target throws that flirt with pop times around 1.80. There’s a long road between the physical tools of a Lee and the advanced feel of a Maldonado that Janek is early in the process of navigating, but his actions and lower half athleticism bode well for stealing strikes at the bottom of the zone. This is what an above-average defensive catcher looks like, even if it will take a bit of time for perception to match reality.

Parts of Janek’s defensive tools are visible in what looks like a much more limited offensive profile, even after a move to a more traditional setup and hand load has him meeting pitches out front more often. Janek has short levers and rotational athleticism that allow him to scoop and pull pitches in the low-and-inside quadrant with authority. But this same inclination makes it hard for Janek to stay on or lay off of outer-half secondaries, producing a combination of in-zone miss and chase has kept his contact rate under 70% while repeating High-A. Janek is a smaller conference catcher navigating a heavier workload, and the South Atlantic League is like a super-charged SEC in terms of stuff quality, but there are enough red flags here to worry that he won’t hit quite enough to start even with a glove-first profile.

The rash of Tommy John surgeries in the amateur ranks is a pox upon our sweet game 99.7% of the time. But sometimes, it sure does facilitate amateur scouting departments looking very, very smart. Mayer was a JUCO transfer to Missouri who wound up losing his would-be draft year to TJ, before looking disjointed and piling up a 6.58 ERA against SEC hitters in 2024. A year later, Mayer has already jumped to Double-A after striking out 75 hitters over 15 walks in 58.2 innings across two levels of A-ball, and his in-zone fastballs have continued to elude damage upon his arrival in Corpus Christi.

Mayer is a physical 6-foot-3 righty who uses a drop-and-drive delivery with good extension to create a flatter approach angle. While the pitch has good carry, he’s sitting 91-94, and the consistency with which he’s working the top rail of the strike zone stands out more than the fastball’s raw life. At least this post-TJ version of Mayer looks like a pure supinator, using an over-the-top curve that he lands regularly to subdue lefties, and mixing in a cutter as a bridge between his fastball and breaking stuff. Both his slider and curve have maintained miss rates over 35% all season, which speaks more to his execution than Mayer touting more than back-end rotation stuff. Still, his command provides a platform for more if he starts throwing harder.

Forcucci has an ideal pitcher’s frame and was growing into mid-90s velocity and potential first round hype when his elbow gave out five starts into his junior year at UC San Diego. In that sense, the Astros might have paid bargain rates to get Forcucci for just under $1 million in the third round last July, a month after he underwent Tommy John surgery.

There was enough delivery messiness and third pitch uncertainty to drive some substantial reliever risk here. And the slow build-up of innings facing Forcucci in his rehab journey offers plenty of time to debate whether he looks more like his mid-rotation ceiling or his middle-leverage relief floor, all before he re-emerges from TJ potentially looking quite different. The flatter plane that Forcucci is able to generate with his fastball and high-80s slider means there’s potential for impact even if his future does tilt toward the ‘pen.

Blubaugh’s mom was a two-sport college athlete at Akron and AJ was a three-sport conference champ in high school before matriculating to UW-Milwaukee, where he would later become a seventh round pick. He reached Double-A in his first full pro season and was quickly bumped to Triple-A in 2024. Early in 2025, he was pressed into spot start duty due to the Astros’ litany of pitcher injuries; long-term, he projects as more of a good long reliever. His below-average command and painful-looking delivery are the primary drivers for this projection, with a 12.9% walk rate in Triple-A this year serving to further affirm it.

Blubaugh has a starter’s repertoire. He’ll touch 97 (his velo has been pretty erratic start to start, but has returned to sitting 94 mph recently) and pepper the top of the zone (and often way above) with fastballs, then bend in low-80s sweeping sliders and mid-80s power-sink changeups. Blubaugh can benefit from being effectively wild, and he’ll throw either of those two secondary pitches to hitters of either handedness; they both finish all over the place, especially the changeup. A slow, mid-70s curveball acts as a show-me pitch to complete his repertoire. Again, Blubaugh should eventually settle into a meaningful role in Houston’s bullpen. While he has options left, he should be deployed as a five-and-dive spot starter in the hope that the extended reps will help him sharpen his command. That’s a great outcome for a seventh rounder.

Pecko went to high school a little southwest of Philadelphia and began his college career as a La Salle Explorer. He never pitched there as he recovered from TJ, and transferred to Towson for his sophomore and junior years, but only threw 59.2 career innings as a Tiger. Since entering pro ball, the Astros have augmented his delivery some, most obviously his stride direction, and Pecko’s fastball has become lethal. It has huge riding action and uphill angle that make it a potential plus-plus offering even though it sits just 92-94 mph. Pecko’s slider garnered plus chase and miss rates in college, but he hasn’t been able to replicate that in pro ball, though his breaking balls do have plus raw spin rates.

After winning the Astros’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year award in 2024 and pitching his way into a Double-A rotation spot, Pecko’s 2025 debut at Corpus Christi was delayed until June. He’s leaning increasingly on a cutter to diversify his breaking ball shapes, but he has yet to find a putaway weapon as reliable as his heater and lacks a reliable changeup. But a fastball miss rate north of 30% is an enviable foundation for a developmental starter.

Someone with such a friendly sounding surname should not be such a miserably tough hang for right-handed hitters. Finally a pure reliever since the outset of this season, Santa has leaned into a running two-seamer out of his low-three-quarters slot. The velocity has varied a lot, but he’s touched 98 mph with it. More devilishly, he can pair it with his cutter, slider and curve – all running miss rates north of 40% – to create three different levels of glove-side bite and velocity to contend with. Suddenly Santa is piling up a groundball rate north of 50% while working in two-inning bursts, and Texas League righties are slugging .194 against the 22-year-old. He’s flashed some average or better changeups that will need to become a bit more consistent to project him as an end-of-game option. But Santa is throwing enough strikes to project as a death-to-righties multi-inning relief weapon as is.

For someone who has steadily walked over 15% of the hitters he’s faced in five years of pro ball, Ullola’s prospect profile has remained pretty stable. He has remarkable, verty fastball shape, which allows the pitch to rack up a miss rate north of 30% in Triple-A despite sitting 92-94 mph. And we think that velo would take a jump in short bursts out of the bullpen, which seems like it will eventually be necessitated by a lack of strikes and Ullola’s inability to land his secondaries in the strike zone. His slider can take on a bit sweepier of a shape than what seems like a natural pairing for his heater. Ullola’s curve is a bit slower and loopier than the typical primary secondary for a hard-throwing for a late-inning reliever, and both breakers seem to back up on him more than is optimal. He will flash some changeups with good, late fade, but his feel for the pitch is inconsistent. The margin for error for all those projects would get a lot bigger if he ticks up to the 96 mph he’s topped out at this year out of the bullpen, where he has high-leverage potential.

A small school star and the grandson of a Heisman trophy winner, Sullivan bulked up and flipped his offensive approach going into his first full pro season. Instead of a hit tool-dependent tweener outfielder, he’s now accessing plus pull-side power with short enough levers to drive elevated velocity. Suddenly, he’s an extreme Three True Outcomes hitter, as swinging only a third of the time leads to a lot of walks and strikeouts, but has also produced 15 home runs in 72 games at High-A Asheville. Elevating the ball more and with greater authority, Sullivan is now beatable in the zone with velocity up and away from him and can’t afford to dip much farther below his 71% contact rate. Filled out and muscular at 5-foot-11, Sullivan has likely plateaued at 55-grade pop, but he gets to it enough to drive a power-over-hit strong side of a platoon, and has enough speed and athleticism to be versatile within that framework.

He’s more of a plus runner than a burner, and in line with his profile looking a lot like that of Kameron Misner, Sullivan is better off moonlighting in center when needed and can be an above-average defender in a corner if left there to be a regular. Similarly he won’t be able to maintain his 50-plus stolen base pace at the upper levels, but it speaks to how Sullivan’s athleticism fuels supplemental value to his new power-over-hit profile.

Baez was signed for $1.3 million back in 2022 on the premise that he would grow into plus all-fields raw power and he’s done so, impressively filling out his broad-shouldered frame while maintaining impact bat speed. Such was his pop that Baez launched 20 homers in 92 games at High-A last season despite breaking ball recognition issues that hinted that Double-A would represent a huge jump in difficulty, and a thumb issue that necessitated season-ending surgery. When he finally made it out to Corpus Christi this past Memorial Day weekend, Baez’s first month there was as rough as it gets. He struck out 28 times in 90 June plate appearances alone, showing very poor ability to track or lay off spin, while playing the sort of corner outfield defense that drives a first base projection.

The plate discipline issues are very real and Baez is going to need to mash to be a regular of any kind, so there’s definitely real bust potential brewing. But I’m disinclined to bail completely on a 21-year-old with middle-of-the-order strength and bat speed at his low point. Despite his size and lofted swing path, Baez is making an average-ish amount of in-zone contact, has remained viable against Texas League velocity throughout, and has quietly shaved down his two-strike chase. He’s riskier than ever at this point, but there’s still enough raw talent here to mature into a Glenallen Hill offensive profile with some approach refinement.

It’s rare for a Day Three draft pick from three years ago to so well encapsulate an organizational approach, but Dezenzo graduated from prospect eligibility this year engaged in two very Astros-like projects: He’s trying to get more of his massive raw power into games, and is also discovering new and unexpected levels of defensive versatility.

Dezenzo has first baseman size (6-foot-5, 220 pounds) and that might now be his only route to appearing on the dirt in the majors, as the Astros have largely relegated him to the outfield corners. He’s surprisingly fluid and relaxed out there given his lack of reps, and certainly has the physical tools to be an average outfielder, but it lessens the dynamism of having Dezenzo’s boom-or-bust offensive profile on the roster if he can’t moonlight on the left side of the infield. After a rough big league cameo in 2024, Dezenzo was showing better-than-average chase rates before being sidelined by a hand injury. But the commendable degree to which his swing is geared for launch leaves him vulnerable to velocity above the belt, and he’s run a 33.9% strikeout rate with Houston thus far. For an all-or-nothing power bench bat, he has exceptional power, but he has a narrow road to providing value.

The real-life answer to the question surely everyone had after watching Signs: What if Merrill Hess had simply been exposed to a modern player development system? Whitcomb hit 35 home runs in the minors in 2023 and was essentially a non-prospect because of how pervasive his whiff issues were, both in-zone and due to excessive chasing. Two years later, he looks significantly stronger, and has been able to maintain his plus raw pop after meaningfully trimming his hand load and swing length. While the quieter mechanisms in Whitcomb’s swing have improved his swing decisions, his breaking ball recognition is still below average, and he’s racked up big-time chase numbers in his brief exposure to big league spin. Still, he’s a more potent and dangerous fastball hitter than most teams are able to pull off their bench. Whitcomb’s throwing limitations and the rawness of his outfield routes make second base his best position, but he’s a plus runner who has mixed in at six different spots this year alone.

There are lots of players who are representative of the 2025 Astros jumping out to a big AL West lead on the backs of yeoman who are largely anonymous to the general public, but few represent this phenomenon better than Gordon. He just exceeded his rookie eligibility after his 10th start with the big league club and has a 4.76 ERA in 51.1 innings that have seen his exquisite control (3.6% walk rate) lessen the sting of his extreme fly ball orientation (10 homers).

Gordon’s fastball sits 90-92 mph with pedestrian shape but a lower slot, which makes his 80ish mph sweeper play up to lefties. He sells his changeup from an arm speed perspective, but has been yanking their location to the point where his attack plan to right-handers has become similarly fastball/sweeper heavy. That requires Gordon to really nibble, mixing in sinkers and curves to vary shape. He’s too vulnerable to right-handers long-term to hold down the fifth slot of a rotation and profiles better as a swingman who offers length. In other words, exactly what he’s done so far is about Gordon’s ceiling.

A former highly touted Georgia high school arm who missed bats but piled up ugly results in a transient collegiate career, Nezuh is a bit more interesting now that he is managing the same thing at the Double-A level a year aftering being a 14th round flier. Like many arms on this list, he’s on the IL at the time of publication, but he struck out 26% of hitters versus a 7.8% walk rate in 34.1 innings at Corpus Christi.

There are a lot of average-ish components present here. Nezuh sits 92-94 mph with plus vert (about 18 inches of induced vertical break) but throws from a downhill plane, and his slight build and slender lower half doesn’t carry much projection. His nastiest secondary is a high-70s splitter that carries a miss rate just shy of 40% but is pretty much a chase-only weapon. His creeping use of a cutter to grab strikes has been a good measure to protect his heater from damage, and keep him tracking as a depth starter.

Brito is newly 21 and had nearly 50 innings of overpowering High-A hitters (31.1% K-rate) under his belt before hitting the IL last month, though the way he went about it probably did a better job of selling him as a future leverage reliever than someone who will stick in a rotation. The young Venezuelan has a chiseled, filled-out frame and has touched 98 mph this year with intense vertical shape. He tilts his trunk quite a bit to produce an over-the-top release, and traditionally, downhill plane dilutes the effect of riding four-seamers. But then again, it scans that he’s only allowed one home run this season, because the most competitive swings against Brito’s heater come when hitters sell out to flatten their barrel. While he can land an over-the-top curveball reliably, Brito is still searching for a harder swing-and-miss secondary that fits him best, because his slider is too sweepy to tunnel consistently and his splitter is usually bouncing. His arm stroke can vary in length and can run late behind his lower half at times, driving glove-side misses and a walk rate north of 13% through both levels of A-ball. Those issues sound daunting for completing the long path to a starter’s arsenal, but Brito is a tweak away from a quick rise to a major league bullpen.

After a shoulder injury consumed the last three months of Knorr’s 2024 season, the Astros moved the 25-year-old right-hander into short relief full-time. Now that he sits 94-97 mph and has touched 98, Knorr’s four-seamer has the bat-missing life necessary for leverage work, but his command has seemingly backed up and his contact has taken on an extreme fly ball orientation. Both Knorr’s overhand curveball and changeup tunnel well with his rise-and-run heater, but he can spray his misses high and arm side when he struggles to control the rotational elements of his delivery. Knorr has a sturdily built lower half and a history of starter-level command, but he looks like a future medium-leverage option at present.

Two years after getting popped in the second round for nearly $1.5 million, Tredwell has outlier physical traits – 6-foot-8, over-the-top release, seven feet of extension – but not outlier stuff. A shoulder injury curbed his first pro season at 57 innings, and the UCLA product is just now reaching High-A at age 23. He’s sitting 90-93 mph this season with good carry (18 inches of IVB) and shape out of an obviously downhill plane. Both his slider and curve have enough downer shape to benefit from this unique slot, with the best versions of the latter breaker starting in the heavens and ending in the underworld. But Tredwell has walked 12.8% of batters in his pro career, and doesn’t draw big-time chase rates on any of his secondaries, including his lightly used changeup. He’s struck out 25.3% of hitters this year and hasn’t struggled per se, but he’s neither overpowering nor projectable enough to see a jump toward dominance coming until he works in shorter bursts.

Corona is a travel-size vacuum in center field, blending speed, athleticism and fearlessness in a manner that would make Jake Marisnick proud, since they were traded for each other six years ago. Marisnick isn’t in affiliated ball anymore and Corona just made his big league debut on the strength of his defense, but they used to be better comps for each other, back when Corona hit 41 home runs across the 2022-23 seasons in the minors. It’s hard to believe that hitter is now reliant on this swing, which has a late extra hand load in it that is keeping Corona tardy and unproductive on fastballs, beating them into the dirt rather than utilizing his fringe average raw power. His glove is good enough for fifth outfielder work, but it’ll be an up and down experience.

The evil, treasonous Trackman spreadsheet will attempt to turn your heart against Valencia’s work at Low-A Fayetteville. It will tell tales of below-average in-zone contact paired with presently below-average raw power coming out of a frame that isn’t the most projectable. It will speak of a player who chases so much (north of 35%) that they’re running a sub-70% contact rate despite possessing a hit-over-power profile. Valencia is also too slow to stick in center, even though he might have snagged his 40th stolen base of the season by the time this list is published. But to watch him is to hear a voice whispering underneath the volume of the wind, and it says he’s interesting.

The Dominican teenager (he turns 20 in October) has a sweet, compact stroke that he can flatten out at the top of the zone, while also flashing uncommon flexibility for bending at the waist and scooping low pitches. He sort of flashes all of his abilities, because not many things are happening consistently for him yet other than swinging at all types of pitches. But it’s early enough in Valencia’s journey for that not to be damning, even if he has his work cut out for him.

As a rule of thumb, undersized, barrel-shaped A-ball hitting machines are meant to be enjoyed more than they are projected for major league impact. A former $10,000 signing out of Venezuela, the combination of bat speed and presently average raw pop that Villaroel can produce out of his 5-foot-8 frame is a marvel, and pairs with an impressive amount of barrel control. He’s still just 20 years old and has tucked his strikeout rate under 20% in his second go-round at Low-A because he demonstrates a solid feel for shortening up with two-strikes after he’s gotten his early count G-hacks out of the way. But it’s hard to slap a plus hit tool grade on someone chasing 30% of the time against Carolina League pitching, and there’s no physical projection present here.

It’s still easier to squint and see a useful bat than project Villarroel’s defensive home. His size really narrows his margin for error for sticking strikes, blocking pitches, and uncorking accurate throws too much to project him to stick behind the plate. His actions at second and his routes in left are both unsurprisingly raw, and he’s likely to devolve into a below-average runner as well. Still, his hit tool is enough fun to see his bat giving him runway to mature into an offensive-minded utility player.

A former $10,000 signing out of the Dominican Republic, Fleury has all the sliders that lead to quick promotions turned up to the max. He repeats his high-three-quarters delivery easily and shows starter-level command of a five-pitch mix, which has fueled a rise that has seen the 23-year-old largely skip the FCL and High-A. The sliders that dictate Fleury’s long-term ceiling are at the other end of the spectrum. He gets all the vertical action (18 inches of IVB) that his high slot would suggest, but it’s a downhill plane at 89-92 mph without much hope of projection providing a boost. Fleury’s velocity has wavered since returning from the IL and his fastball been hit hard upon his arrival to Triple-A, fueling further concern that it will be vulnerable against upper-level hitters. His actual slider and curveball are well-located but look similarly underpowered. On the other hand, Fleury’s changeup has the separation and results, and mirrors his fastball like a true above-average offering that plays to lefties and righties. The track record for low-velo righty changeup artists isn’t great, but Fleury has the tools of a depth starter.

On the heels of twirling 89.2 innings with a 3.21 ERA as a 20-year-old at Low-A Myrtle Beach, Bello was flipped to the Astros for Ryan Pressly in an extreme mismatch of traits and track record. The Colombian right-hander is a fluid mover on the mound, with a lean and agile 6-foot-1 frame, and he has a precocious feel for a variety of breaking ball shapes. But the apparent projectability of his frame hasn’t led Bello out of the 89-92 mph velocity range as of yet, and he hasn’t grown newly dedicated to peppering his secondaries into the strike zone, leading to a spike in his walk rate at High-A (close to 12%). There’s still no. 4/5 starter potential here waiting for a velo and/or command jump to feel more realistic.

Last year’s JUCO Player of the Year is far more toolsy than the typical Low-A utilityman, as it’s rare to see someone with above-average present exit velos bouncing between three infield spots at Fayetteville. Lean and 6-foot-3 with long levers, Powell has more than enough arm strength to throw across the diamond, but he’s more accurate when he can set his feet, rather than when he’s rushing his play clock as he needs to when he’s asked to play short. He both has so much raw pop that his air-pull rate is but a quibble, and is swinging and missing in the zone so much (he has about a 64% contact rate) that accessing the juice that allowed him to hit 32 bombs in his last year Seminole State feels far off. Statistically, Powell has swapped excessive chase for excessive in-zone whiff this year (bad trade). Visually, he’s working very hard to stay closed and cut down length in his swing path by keeping his hands close to his body, but he struggles to keep his head still and track pitches, leading to exceptionally poor performance against spin so far. With the Astros preparing him for a multi-positional future, he’s trending toward an infield version of Michael A. Taylor, but Powell’s hit tool issues might be too extreme for such an outcome.

It’s nigh impossible to sneak a heater past Hernandez’s compact stroke, and he’s an unfailing, silky smooth defender who is above-average at shortstop. That would normally be enough to drive a soft regular projection at the most important position on the dirt, even if the 21-year-old never showed proceeds from the strength and muscle he’s added in the Astros’ development system. But Hernandez has been shifted to a utility workload at Low-A Fayetteville that has him playing more second base than anywhere else. Despite his lack of in-zone miss and a strikeout rate around 16%, Hernandez is fighting the Mendoza line for the second straight year. He struggles badly to track breaking balls and posts miss rates above 30% on almost any brand of spin. The glove is still good enough to keep him relevant on a utility projection for now.

Slender, slight, and speedy, Jaworsky got almost half a million dollars over his fifth round slot value to sign out of his Colorado high school in 2023, but he hasn’t grown meaningfully stronger since. He has the range and hands to cover both middle infield positions and push a glove-dependent utility profile. But he lacks the power to thrive with the 20% or so K-rate he’s run across both levels of A-ball, which a mark driven both by excessive two-strike chase and worrisome trouble with velocity. The defensive floor is high enough to drive a sixth infielder projection, but Jaworsky will need to add strength to stabilize his offense.

The former senior sign’s easy low-slot delivery – and above-average command – can make it look like the 24-year-old right-hander is just playing catch out there. And the simple efficacy of Hicks’ running heater and sweeping slider makes hitters cover the whole width of the plate and gives him swingman potential despite below-average velocity and a decided lack of whiffs. But he was only able to get in 17 ugly innings at Double-A this April before being sidelined by injury, a reminder that even 91 mph from a smooth delivery isn’t easy on the body.

Cole barely played in his first two years at Ball State before breaking out enough as a junior to earn a 10th round selection. Now he’s pushing 25 and threading the needle of being too toolsy not to be intriguing, but too unrefined to project him to actualize his plus raw pop. Lithe and long-levered, Cole has the range to play a passable center field and the cannon to be a defensive asset in right. He has a good eye, big-time juice, and enough loft to leave the yard in any direction. But this is a long swing with extraneous movement and an imprecise barrel. Cole is repeating Double-A and also repeating his 38% strikeout rate from last year, driven largely by in-zone whiff. Such a flawed hit tool likely resigns Cole to being an up-and-down fifth outfielder sort, but the type who has an incredible feat of strength or two mixed in between all the whiffs.

Smith and his funky, low-slot, sinker-driven attack carried the Rice rotation for years en route to a fourth round selection last July. While that’s more of a figurative description of his college workload, his pro debut was delayed until this May by a herniated disk in his back all the same. The run and sink on Smith’s low-90s sinker produces some uncomfortable swings and takes, and a lot of grounders, and he flashes the ability to tunnel his changeup off the same movement profile. But there isn’t a plus bat-misser in the bunch, which is best exemplified by a sweeping slider that helps him establish the full width of the plate but doesn’t get below pro barrels. Smith’s college proclivity for running his sinker into the literal hands of right-handed hitters (37 HBP over his last two seasons at Rice) has manifested itself in the form of walks early into his pro career. No amount of grounders can sustain ceding both fronts in the strikeout/walk war, so Smith is tracking toward the righty specialist reliever end of his development spectrum at present, with no. 5 starter potential.

The Astros dropped over $800,000 to grab Taylor at the back of the second comp round in 2022, and after elbow issues cost him most of last year and slightly delayed his start to this season, it’s easy to argue the spindly 6-foot-5 right-hander hasn’t had enough runway to develop as a starter. But he already sort of pitches like a reliever, using his high-slot, 20-inch IVB four-seamer nearly 70% of the time, and he has a high-maintenance, super-rotational delivery that has driven strike-throwing issues. Taylor is sitting 90-93 at present but has flashed 95 mph this year, and if he develops a more consistent downer breaking ball, it would really tie a single-inning reliever profile together.

Believe it or not, the Astros have had two different Day Three catchers with average or better raw pop spend big chunks of their season backing up Walker Janek in Asheville. Of the two, I like Bush’s chances for staying behind the plate slightly more than those of Garret Guillemette, but it’s a bat-first backup profile for both of them. Bush is an agile receiver and flashes average arm strength, but he releases from a high slot that leads to some slower exchanges and inaccurate throws.

Offensively, Bush is patient, bordering on passive, which serves to keep his strikeout rate close to 30% and is also necessary to find pitches that match his grooved swing path. He’s clearing 105 mph for his 90th-percentile exit velocities and is pretty reliably getting the ball in the air to the pull side, lifting 11 homers through 58 games. For a lefty swinger, he likes the ball up more than most because of how deeply he sinks into his crouch as he loads, but it comes with an arm bar that means his best contact comes up and middle-way. It’s a fine offensive profile for a catcher, but it’ll be a fight to stay there.

The Bronx native and former second round pick has filled out his 6-foot-4 frame and cultivated a downer bat-missing low-80s slider, with a cutter that ably protects it. That’s enough to hold together a relief projection without lingering too much on the disappointment that more hasn’t developed around it. Santos is sitting in the low-90s again with middling results, but he has flashed 96 and can miss bats when he locates his heater at the letters. But his lack of fastball command holds back both his current efforts of starting at Double-A and the relief future we’re projecting. Santos prominently drags his back foot across the pitching rubber right as he’s releasing the ball, which is the messiest element of an involved lower-half move he struggles to repeat. It was driving a nearly 18% walk rate at the time Santos hit the IL again in June, thus the relief projection.

A former two-way player at Liberty and a high school rotation mate of Blue Jays first rounder Trey Yesavage, Hertzler’s 6-foot-4, 235-pound frame doesn’t present much projection, but there’s room to grow given that pitching has only recently become his sole focus. His low-90s heater is protected by a suite of secondaries with downer action out of high-three-quarters slot, but he only got in three starts this year before a forearm strain shut him down. Hertzler’s pro career has shown flashes of big-time bat-missing potential limited to under 20 innings of in-game action due to injury.

A nice thing about 5-foot-9, fire hydrant-shaped relievers is that they seem to find uphill angle on their fastballs fairly naturally. Sanchez has touched 98 mph on a fastball with impressive carry that still manages to get above barrels despite his over-the-top arm slot. His delivery is max effort and is too rushed to be consistent, driving poor command of Sanchez’s secondaries, as well as 32 walks and 10 wild pitches in 43 innings at Double-A Corpus Christi. For a pure reliever, he maintains a wide arsenal, but the arm speed and velocity separation on his changeup gives it the greatest potential. The total lack of projection leaves me bearish on how much more consistently plus velocity or command Sanchez will grow into, so it’s an up-and-down relief profile for now.

The Astros extended almost $200,000 in order to sign a man whose given name is literally Twine Rollin Palmer from an Oklahoma community college in the second-to-last round of last year’s draft, and they may have found Discount Alonzo Tredwell in the process. Palmer is unrefined – he’s walked 19 in 29.1 innings, and that’s a major improvement from his draft year – but he’s also 6-foot-5 with a Josh Collmenter arm slot. He only sits 90-93 mph, but he gets 19 inches of IVB and massive amounts of in-zone miss on his heater in a manner that merits further study. Palmer’s north-south attack with his slider, cutter, and curve gives lefties fits, and he’s only allowed three extra-base hits (all doubles) in 126 batters faced. A funky reliever is probably all that should be hoped for at this stage, but that’s more than most dare dreaming about in the 19th round.

Langford was a 17th round pick in 2023 out of tiny Murray State College. Not be confused with Murray State University, the college is named after former Oklahoma governor William “Alfalfa Bill” Murray. There’s time for this aside because Langford’s scouting report hasn’t changed much in a year’s time. He gets monstrous extension from a drop-and-drive delivery that gives his verty four-seamer (18 inches of IVB) extra hop. But he also has a monstrous head whack in the finish of his delivery that results in shotgun spray command and a walk rate over 20% halfway through the season at High-A Asheville. Langford has special bat-missing characteristics that could help him move very quickly if/when something clicks, but to be still be sitting 89 mph with 20-grade command in his second full professional season isn’t encouraging.