How Good Is Your Favorite Team Going to Be?

Here’s a table! It includes every team in baseball, and it shows how many regular-season games each team has won over the past five years. The Dodgers have been very good. The Phillies have not. Come to FanGraphs.com for all of your groundbreaking baseball analysis.

Wins Between 2013 – 2017
Team Wins Team Wins Team Wins
Dodgers 473 Rangers 419 Diamondbacks 386
Nationals 457 Blue Jays 415 Brewers 383
Cardinals 456 Angels 415 Braves 382
Indians 454 Tigers 407 Rockies 370
Pirates 433 Mets 400 Marlins 366
Red Sox 432 Giants 399 Padres 366
Yankees 431 Mariners 398 Reds 366
Cubs 431 Rays 397 Twins 363
Royals 431 Athletics 396 White Sox 357
Orioles 426 Astros 392 Phillies 346

Lately I’ve been thinking about a few different questions. The main thrust of one: Which team is best positioned to be good for a while? The main thrust of the other: Which team seems to be the most screwed? We all, I think, have our suspicions, and the first one has maybe been talked to death. I’m not sure. Situations are always changing. But I couldn’t quite think of the right way to approach the subjects. I’ve also known I’ve wanted to gauge community opinions. And so we come to this, which is just another FanGraphs community polling project. I think I’ve settled on an appropriate question.

Above, for every team, you see five-year win totals, through 2017. Below, there are 30 polls — one for each team — and I’m looking for your rough combined win projections for 2018 through 2022. It’s relatively easy to project one season ahead, but for these purposes, I don’t think that accomplishes enough. It asks a different question. By focusing on five years, instead of one, I’m not just asking about the strength of the current roster. It forces you to consider the front office, and the farm system, and the player development, and the overall resources. In theory, we could go beyond five years, but then it’s all effectively unknowable. I mean, even the fifth year is probably unknowable, but just give it your best shot, based on what you understand about your team. As always, I’ll do a follow-up analysis post, so that we can evaluate the whole spread of the landscape.

I recognize that these polling projects are usually easier. This one requires some basic math. For reference, an average of 81 wins over the next five years would yield a combined total of 405. An average of 90 wins over the next five years would yield a combined total of 450. An average of 75 wins over the next five years would yield a combined total of 375. Those might give you some useful targets. You can also refer to the table at the start. It’s not fun to have to do math just in order to respond to an internet poll, but I think the results of this could be really interesting. It’s a question we’re frequently thinking about, yet I’ve never polled in this way. Given sufficient participation, we can assess every team’s short- and medium-term strength in league context.

Thank you in advance for your help. I can’t wait to see what the numbers reveal.

To proceed directly to a specific team poll, click on the team’s name below.

Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, Rangers, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins, White Sox, Yankees

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Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Indians

Mariners

Marlins

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees





Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

newest oldest most voted
merizobeach
Member
merizobeach

When I consider the Giants’ five-year outlook, I think Mr. Kurtz said it best: “The horror, the horror!”

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

While they might actually be okay, they are certainly going to be the least efficient team in terms of payroll dollars per win. Not sure it is even going to be close.

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

I am now convinced this is incorrect. When the Yankees or Dodgers or whoever run a $350 million payroll they are going to get this category.

It would have been better to just say that the Giants are not going to get a lot for the money.

Brad Johnson
Member
Member

Dunno why you’re getting down votes.

RunRickeyRun
Member
RunRickeyRun

Something like 79, 70, 63, 60, 68 ? That’s 340.

Luke Hooper
Member
Member

But those horrors aren’t starting right away. They could easily bankroll 170 wins over the next 2 years. Which means they would have to put up 60 wins seasons in the back three in order to fall into the lowest bucket. I think 85 + 85 + 70 + 70 + 70 is a reasonable projection.

RunRickeyRun
Member
RunRickeyRun

You are probably being optimistic and I’m probably being pessimistic. I was just looking at their farm system (bad) and their long-term contracts (bad) and not really factoring in that they will probably continue to spend aggressively.

I don’t believe that spending aggressively on free agents is a way to build a winning team, but it is an effective way to build a 70 win team when you probably have 60 win talent between the farm system and old guys under contract.

I’ll predict 79, 72, 68, 70, 72…for a total of 361.

Keep in mind that this was a 64 win team last year (probably could have won 74) and they only won 399 in the last 5 years, so the people thinking they are going to have a BETTER record in the next 5 vs. the last 5, when their core was young and good, are just defying logic.