How the Cubs Can Win the World Series

The Cubs should win this. I know that sounds crazy from the perspective of someone who cares a lot about baseball history, but this is the greatest Cubs team in ages, and that team is the World Series favorite. Maybe you don’t think they should be favored as strongly as they are on our pages. Maybe you don’t think they should be favored as strongly as they are in various betting markets. But you’d have to put an awful lot of weight in the American League’s superiority to think the Indians are at least a coin flip here. Home-field advantage doesn’t make up for the Indians’ deficiencies. Even if you figure their odds are about the same as, say, Joey Votto’s odds of reaching base, Votto usually doesn’t reach base. In any at-bat, Votto’s the underdog. In this World Series, the Indians are the underdog.

Which is one of the reasons why August wrote up a post titled “How the Indians Can Win the World Series.” Obviously, there are paths that would lead the Indians to victory, and it’s interesting to think about how it could happen. It’s maybe less interesting to think about how the Cubs could win; “continue being the better baseball team” isn’t a satisfying answer. But still, there are things the Cubs can do. There are things for them to try to ignore or exploit. The Cubs have some keys to victory, just as the Indians do.

So this is the second half of our post-pair. How can the Cubs win the World Series? They can play like they’ve played practically all season. But what about specific little details? I can offer some of those. Here are some potential talking points.

No. 1: Don’t worry too much about the running game

I know this isn’t a classic “key to victory.” Telling a team not to worry about something doesn’t put runs on the scoreboard. But, so much of the talk right now is about how the Indians are better positioned to take advantage of the Cubs’ vulnerabilities than the Dodgers were, and than the Giants were. The Indians have been a terrific baserunning team, and they’re going to try to utilize that. Of course, they’ll try to go to work against Jon Lester, but he’s not the only Cubs pitcher you can run on. The Indians would love for this to be a big part of their offense.

That’s great for them. They’ll probably even steal a handful of bases! There’s only so much the Cubs can do about that. With Lester, he is quick to the plate — that’s a plus. David Ross is quick to second base. That’s a plus. But the Cubs just can’t get too caught up in trying to defend against running. There’s no evidence to suggest they can be rattled, and like any of them would tell you, the focus is on preventing people from getting on in the first place. And even if runners do reach, they aren’t going to steal home. They need to be driven in, and what the Cubs’ pitchers are best at is pitching.

Baserunning will always be secondary to hitting. It’s a peripheral skill. I split the Cubs’ games this year by steals allowed. In the very low-steal games, opponents averaged one run per 3.17 baserunners. In the high-steal games — where the Cubs averaged three steals against — opponents averaged one run per 3.02 baserunners. That’s better, but it’s only slightly better. The value is a small fraction of one run. The Indians can run and still lose. I’d say that might even be likely.

No. 2: Get on against Kluber

This is also maybe kind of weird advice. “Get on” is painfully obvious. But, one of the Indians’ main weapons is going to be Corey Kluber, who could start up to three games in the series. Three games is a lot of games! If the Indians win those three, they need to win just one of the remaining. But you can’t just take those wins for granted. Kluber, like any pitcher, is vulnerable, and he has one particular vulnerability. Splits over his last two seasons:

When Kluber has pitched with the bases empty, he’s been one of the most effective pitchers in the game. When he’s pitched with traffic, he’s been about as effective as Clay Buchholz or Andrew Cashner. I can’t tell you exactly why that is, but it stands to reason it could have something to do with Kluber’s delivery from the stretch, and the numbers speak for themselves. Kluber is at his best when he doesn’t have anything else to worry about but the hitter. Which, of course, makes it the most difficult to get on. Yet the Cubs are a disciplined team, and a talented team, and they can do what they can to shift their priority to just getting to first. When Kluber is even a little preoccupied, he can be hit.

No promises here. Kluber could bear down. Or the Cubs could just struggle to reach in the first place. But the earlier in innings the Cubs get on, the more they’ll make Kluber work. Which means either runs, or relievers. You don’t want to be in a hurry to see Indians relievers, but you can make sure those relievers are overworked.

No. 3: For that matter, just get on

What’s the Indians’ big strength? The bullpen, right? In reality, the Indians might not have much of a bullpen advantage, here, but it’s at least one area where the Indians do measure up. When the relievers get involved, the Cubs might not really be that much of the better team, so that shifts some of the focus to the earlier innings, before the relievers go to work. The Cubs have the better starting rotation. And — all right, we have splits dating back to 2002. Since then, 462 pitchers have thrown at least 200 innings with the bases empty and with the bases not empty. In the point above, I mentioned Kluber’s splits. For his career, he ranks in the third percentile in terms of performance with runners on, relative to having the bases empty. That’s bad. Trevor Bauer ranks in the 19th percentile. That’s better, but still mediocre. And Josh Tomlin? He has the biggest split out of everyone. Out of everyone! By wOBA allowed, with the bases not empty he’s been 64 points worse. Whatever has been the matter with Kluber, Tomlin has had an even bigger issue, and maybe that’s not so astonishing given how Tomlin lives on the margins.

This is just another suggestion for the Cubs to reach base. On its own that’s not very helpful. Of course the Cubs want to reach base. But when they do reach base, that should present opportunities, at least when the Indians’ starters are in the game. Beware the leadoff baserunner. That would be the Cubs’ first step on the path to a crooked number.

No. 4: Be careful with the lefties

The leader among Cubs relievers in playoff batters faced is Mike Montgomery. Aroldis Chapman is second, and Travis Wood is third. There’s nothing wrong with having Chapman there, but it’s worth monitoring how heavily the other two are used. Because, as relievers, both Montgomery and Wood have run some fairly strong platoon splits. That’s nothing odd for a bullpen southpaw, but one of the distinctive things about the Indians’ offense is how frequently the hitters manage to have the platoon advantage. The Indians might have the toughest lineup in baseball to manage a bullpen against, because managers love playing the matchups, and Terry Francona frequently has the last laugh.

Joe Maddon shouldn’t get stuck letting Montgomery or Wood face too many righties. Unless the leverage is low, that wouldn’t make sense. The best counter to a versatile offense is a pitcher who doesn’t really care what kind of hitter he’s facing. Justin Grimm hasn’t really had a platoon split. Neither has Carl Edwards Jr. Hector Rondon’s split is small. With Chapman, whatever, he’s Aroldis Chapman. Pedro Strop is one righty who might occasionally run into issues with lefties, but even his split doesn’t compare to that of the southpaws. Maddon has weapons, provided he believes in Rondon and Strop these days. His bullpen usage should look pretty different.

No. 5: Don’t over-extend Arrieta

This deals with some of the same ideas, but as Jake Arrieta has seen his performance slip, the bulk of that has come against left-handed bats. He remains a pretty good starting pitcher, and if the Cubs see him using his best stuff then you can just leave him out there for a while, but when Arrieta has been exploitable, it’s been through lefties frequently reaching base. His walk rate against lefties has taken off, and so I’ll remind you again that the Indians almost always get to have the platoon advantage. They’ll work that against Arrieta, just as they’d work it against anyone, and so that could cause Arrieta’s pitch counts to skyrocket. He could end up throwing a lot of high-stress pitches, with a decent amount of traffic, and if Arrieta’s slider just isn’t there, that could spell disaster. The Indians offense won’t give him much of a let-up. They’re going to make him work. And if that should come to pass, then Maddon should get his relievers active. You figure Jon Lester can get pretty deep. Ditto Kyle Hendricks. The bullpen shouldn’t end up badly overworked, which ought to make it more available for Arrieta around the fifth, or even the fourth, if necessary.

No. 6: Push Chapman

Push him. Push Aroldis Chapman. I doubt he’s quite as durable as Andrew Miller is, given Chapman’s own history with dead-arm phases, but, this is the end. Are you tired of hearing about how Miller has revolutionized the modern-day bullpen? Are you tired of hearing about how, against Miller, the Cubs don’t stand a chance? That’s all well and good, but over the past three years, Miller has allowed a .474 OPS, and Chapman’s at .469. Just this year alone, Miller allowed a .487 OPS, and Chapman came in at .452. Yeah, Andrew Miller is dominant. Aroldis Chapman is exactly as dominant, and he should be able to face more than three hitters.

Maybe Chapman isn’t quite so accustomed to entering in the middle innings. That’s fine; he doesn’t have to do that. Every game in this series will have later innings. Many of them will be important, and Chapman should enter more in the eighth. And, hell, I don’t mean to be insensitive, but with Miller, the Indians have a future commitment. The Cubs are done with Chapman within a matter of weeks. They’re more incentivized to squeeze out as much as they can, right here. Chapman in his career has a small sample of going beyond 25 pitches, but he’s performed well when he’s done that. He’s long been fantastic on zero days’ rest. I don’t think Joe Maddon can use Aroldis Chapman quite like how Terry Francona has used Andrew Miller, but the gap doesn’t have to be that big. And the Cubs do have other relievers they can trust. It’s just, Chapman is their Miller equivalent, and they should use him as such. This is why you get a pitcher like that.

I don’t know how much he can take. But then, none of us know how much Miller can take, either. It’s all guesswork. The only thing that isn’t guesswork is that, when he’s on the mound, Aroldis Chapman is about as good as anybody. Might as well try to maximize. It might just win you a damn World Series.