How Would Johnny Damon Fit On The Rays?
After cutting ties with outfield mainstay Carl Crawford, as well as veteran back-up Gabe Kapler, the Tampa Bay Rays are rumored to be in the market for Johnny Damon. Assuming the price tag is reasonable, this would be the kind of low-risk, potentially high reward deal available every year to teams who wait out the annual free agent feeding frenzy.
Damon is a great buy-low guy for 2011. Before last year’s somewhat diminished showing of 1.9 WAR, Damon had strung together eight consecutive seasons with 2+ WAR. As long as he provides what he provided in Detroit last season, he would be a valuable member of the Rays. And there’s a good case to be made that he could provide more value than that. Looking at Damon’s reduced power numbers, it would be easy to finger Comerica Park as the culprit, but that’s not the case. Damon actually slugged eight of his nine homers at home last season, and had a decent .144 ISO there as well. It was on the road where he had problems, as his HR/FB% of 1.2% on the road was ridiculously low, even for Damon. His batted ball numbers don’t provide a ton of help in this regard. His line drive percentages were essentially the same, home or road, and his ground ball and fly ball percentages were within five percent of each other as well.
For whatever reason, Damon just didn’t cotton to the other AL Central ballparks in 2010. His home triple slash numbers of .291/.359/.435 were perfectly reasonable, as was his line of .291/.391/.410 in 156 plate appearances at all ballparks outside of the AL Central. But at the four other AL Central parks he hit a measly .205/.308/.315 in 146 plate appearances. Struggling at Target Field didn’t put him in any sort of exclusive club, but until last season he had hit .301/.360/.452 in the other three ballparks within the division. Since that poor performance was out of line not just with the rest of his 2010 numbers but also his previously established track record, we can treat it as an outlier until he shows decline across multiple seasons.
Getting back to the Rays, Damon would be a terrific complement to Jennings in the outfield, since Jennings hits right-handed and Damon left-handed. In addition, since Jennings has dealt with injuries in all but one season of his pro career, and Damon is generally either healthy or playing effectively through pain, having Damon should be a security blanket. And while Damon has been derided for years for his poor throwing arm, the Tigers showed last season that if his outfield play is limited, Damon can be effective in the pasture. In 13 of the 31 games Damon started in left last season, he was removed in either the seventh, eighth or ninth inning for defense, with Don Kelly serving as his defensive caddy. As a result, Damon posted the second highest UZR/150 mark of his career (4.3). The Rays, whether by using Jennings, Justin Ruggiano or someone else, are more than able to replicate this strategy.
But most of Damon’s time will probably be spent as the designated hitter, and here he provides flexibility as well. Matt Joyce is ostensibly listed as the team’s DH, but Joyce was one of the Rays better defenders last season. Damon’s presence would free up manager Joe Maddon to use Joyce in the field more frequently. There were several times last season when Joyce played right field, with Ben Zobrist sliding in to second to give Sean Rodriguez the night off, and that was when Maddon’s DH options were people like Willy Aybar, Pat Burrell and Brad Hawpe.
And that brings us to the final point – Damon would stabilize the lineup. In the past two seasons, the Rays have used eight players at DH for five or more games: Aybar, Hank Blalock, Burrell, Joe Dillon, Hawpe, John Jaso, Dan Johnson and Joyce. Compare that to just two for the Red Sox – Mike Lowell and David Ortiz. This is partially due to the fact that Maddon likes to mix things up, but it is also partially due to the fact that the Rays just weren’t getting any production from their DH slot. Last season, they generated -0.7 WAR from the position, a number that tied them for next-to-last in the AL with Toronto. In 2009, they were dead last at -0.3 WAR. Damon may not DH every single game, but when he does, he should derive positive value, and the 2011 Rays would be better for it.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
Not seeing the high reward part… his WAR is based on playing 140+ games (and in the past primarily as an OF)… will he really do this with the Rays? (At best he’s a part time OF, and he does not have the bat to post 2 WAR from the DH spot)
One of the reasons his WAR took a hit last year was the transition to mainly a DH. While he will likely sign for 2 WAR serving primarily as a DH?
Hmmm… part of that comment got cut out… My last question was ” while he will likely sign for *less than* 2 WAR in terms of dollars, would even 2 WAR (which is a stretch as primarily a DH) be considered high reward?
I love the way people here just laud praise on whatever the Rays do, and do nothing but rip the moves teams like the Cubs make, simply due to this perceived use of metrics. You guys are getting too predictable. What does playing in the AL Central have to do with Johnny Damon’s low numbers? Why would anyone think that moving from the division where the Royals and Indians dwell to the most pitching friendly park in baseball’s toughest division is going to be any kind of positive for Damon? I suppose if they sign him for 1 million it becomes a no risk/high reward type of deal, but Damon is in a steep decline. Lets not make fools of ourselves in expecting big things simply because the Rays are the ones making the move.
It probably has a lot to do with the Rays recent history of making good moves and the Cubs recent history of making bad moves.
It would seem that the move from facing AL Central pitching to AL East pitching should be pretty much of a wash. While the AL East is the best division in baseball, it is not the best pitching division in baseball. Damon won’t have to face the best staff in the AL East because he’s playing for the Rays.
The bottom line seems to be that the Rays are going to pay Damon $5.75 and they should expect a reasonable return on their investment.
I like Damon, and appreciate what he did for the Tigers, even if he was unfortunate in RISP (pitewww) situations, and didn’t show the same power without the Jet(er) stream he had in New York going out to RF. Johnny put up a .356 OBP in the 2 slot, and thanks mainly to him, the Tigers ranked second in the league in OBP in that slot, which is a big key for a lineup so dependent on one or two guys for their run production. Problem is, he brought little else to the table. No speed, no power, no glove.
The Rays lose a bunch of offense in Pena and Crawford, should be able to replace what they got from Bartlett, at least in his last year, and they lose just about everyone from a pretty good bullpen. The remainder of the AL East champs remains in tact, and at least one of their two main rivals has done little to improve themselves overall this winter. With a couple of key acquisitions, the Rays should be able to remain in contention, and it would be a shame for them to punt on the opportunity for the sake of a few million bucks.
Damon could help them, but not like Manny could help them, IMO, or even Vladdy. They should be adding a power bat for the middle of the order, if not two of them. They have virtual vacancies at DH and first base that should be filled with the players that have fallen through the cracks on the free agent market. The relief market is drying up quickly, and Kyle Farnsworth isn’t nearly what they need to replace the bus load of relievers that left town.
The Rays will be more than okay, long term, with a dozen picks by the time the middle of the second round is done, but there’s too much talent still on the field to leave gaping holes out there and squander an opportunity to get back to the post season in 2011. Sign Damon, sure, but also sign Manny or Vladdy, and pick up a few relievers before they’re all gone.
WOW! You must be psychic. The Rays signed both Damon and Manny an hour before you posted.
1. Upton – cf
2. Zorilla – 2b
3. Longoria – 3b
4. Manny – dh
5. Damon – lf
6. Joyce – rf
7. Rodriguez – ss
8. Jaso/Chinrois/Shoppach – c
9. first baseman
That is a sexy lineup, even when you swap Jennings with Damon and bat him wherever.
Gets even better when you play Reid Brignac at SS.
You know, the reason why the Rays felt confident in trading Jason Bartlett?!?
Damon and Manny both make pitchers work hard at the plate, and get on base at a very good rate. This will be a tougher lineup even without Crawfords speed and Penas power.
Not sure what they will do at 1B, but they have Johnson, Zobrist, Jaso and Rodriguez who can play 1B, so they may have some kind of platoon if they don’t sign another FA.
The Rays might have to use 162 different lineups, but I would write them off. .
They’ve already said that Johnson will be their 1B.
Do I remember correctly that Damon was taking reps at first with the Yankees, in anticipation of moving there before they signed Texeira?
UPTON will not/should not bat lead-off. That’s a horrible lineup!!
1.-Jaso/C
2.-Damon/LF
3-Zorilla/1B
4-Longo/3B
5-Manny/DH
6-Brignac/2B
7-Joyce or Ruggiono/RF
8-Upton/CF
9-Rodriguez/SS
OR put Jennings in right and bat him 9th. You don’t bat Upton leadoff! He had a 240. AVG. and a crummy OBP. He couldn’t draw a walk if his life depended on it. So Madden’s lineup will look similar to this one, but Joe changes it more than a Skitzo does personalities. So, this is all arbitrary.
“Skitzos” don’t have multiple personalities.
i look for damon to lead off, upton to bat down in the order, longoria and manny in the middle. it wouldn’t shock me if damon ends up at 1B – zobrist has to be a better defender in LF than him. i also think jennings starts the season in the minors, rodriguez starts at 2B, brignac at SS and joyce in RF. if samon stays in LF, i guess dan johnson and zobrist platoon at 1B, with zobrist playing in any number of other positions to be in the lineup almost every day. projected order:
damon
zobrist
longoria
manny
joyce
upton
rodriguez
catcher (jaso, shoppach)
brignac
There ya go. Thank you. Finally, someone made a good lineup on this thread.
If Upton got off to another terrible hitting year, I’d move him to 9th and mvoe SRod, C, and Brignac up a spot. Get your rabits in a row.