I Should Explain This Wilmer Font Thing
Yesterday, I wrote a post about how the opportunity should be there for some low-spending team to buy a prospect. There are high-spending teams looking to shed expensive commitments, and there are lower-payroll teams who ought to have some nearer-term financial flexibility. The example I leaned on most heavily was the Dodgers and Matt Kemp, since the Dodgers would like to move Kemp if they are to re-sign Yu Darvish and still avoid exceeding the competitive-balance-tax threshold. There’s nothing controversial in here. If anything, it’s all terribly obvious. Of course the Dodgers would like to dump Kemp’s salary, and of course some other teams would be interested in assuming some dead money if it came along with younger value.
The Dodgers have plenty of younger value. Plenty of options, for designing a reasonable Kemp package. This would be precisely the hold-up; other teams want more than the Dodgers have so far been willing to give. Where I ran into some resistance was when I talked specifically about Wilmer Font. That is, Wilmer Font, as a would-be Matt Kemp offset. Font is a 27-year-old righty with seven innings of major-league experience. In those seven innings, he’s allowed nine runs. He’s nowhere high on any prospect list. Even more, I’m given to understand he’s out of options!
Let me quickly try to explain myself. I know that Font seemed like a weird guy to bring up. And I have no idea how many teams might actually be interested in him. But I know for a fact the answer’s not zero. Font has been on few radars, but he’s coming off a truly incredible season.
Font’s already had a strange career. He threw his first professional innings in 2007, and he developed into a fairly good Rangers prospect. Tommy John surgery cost him all of 2011, but he did make it to the majors, briefly, the following year. He didn’t stick, and by 2015, he was pitching for the Ottawa Champions of the Canadian-American Association. He pitched for Ottawa again in 2016, before getting signed in the middle of the season by the Blue Jays. He pitched for Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo. He then became a minor-league free agent.
Even then, KATOH liked him enough. And then the 2017 season got underway, with Font starting for the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate. In early May, KATOH identified Font as the most improved pitching prospect around. Shortly thereafter, Font made his debut in Carson’s running Fringe Five series. He would reappear multiple times. By the end, Font had made 25 starts for Oklahoma City, exceeding 130 innings. He topped out at 107 pitches, and Font had five different starts with double-digit strikeouts, once reaching 15. The numbers make up the bulk of the case. Plain and simple, you can’t ignore what Font just pulled off. No, Triple-A hitters aren’t as good as major-league hitters. But here are all the Triple-A pitchers from last season with at least 75 innings. You’re seeing their walk rates and strikeout rates. Font is the dot in yellow.
Only Tyler Glasnow managed a higher strikeout rate than Font did, and Glasnow has long had that reputation of being unhittable when he’s right. Font also limited his walks, which was a function of his throwing more than two-thirds of all his pitches for strikes. Font’s strike rate ranked sixth-highest in the sample, and while I of course do understand there’s more to pitching than just strikeouts and walks, those are two pretty important pillars. Against the second-highest level of competition, Wilmer Font got ahead, and stayed ahead. He was dominant over the course of five months, before wilting in three late-season big-league relief opportunities. They happened, but they also don’t erase the Triple-A performance.
Arguably the most similar pitcher at the level was Brent Honeywell, who Baseball America just ranked as the No. 14 overall prospect. And I don’t mean to suggest that Font and Honeywell are one and the same, but the numbers present a compelling case that Font deserves an extended look. As a righty starter, he didn’t show an exaggerated platoon split. Font kept on pitching well, and over the past two years he’s totaled nearly 320 innings. Seemingly, the best explanation for Font’s emergence is that the Dodgers got him to use his four-seam fastball up in the zone. An example:
Font has one of those rising four-seamers, like the Dodgers like, and he’d previously been instructed to keep the ball down. The Dodgers got him to try a new thing, and the fastball became a swing-and-miss weapon. Font was already able to move his fastball around, and with a new organization, a new area was opened up for him. Font thrived at and above the belt.
The fastball wasn’t the whole story, though. Font has also folded in a different technique — attacking with first-pitch curveballs. It’s statistically demonstrable that hitters don’t like to go after first-pitch curves. So Font has learned a new way to get ahead with his breaker.
Getting ahead is important, because it puts the pitcher in a position of power. Batters have to go on the defensive. Font likes his early curves, and his later fastballs. But just for the sake of being thorough, Font does also have a slider.
And, in Triple-A, he also had a splitter. For five months with Oklahoma City, Wilmer Font was a four-pitch, high-strikeout starter. His fastball can creep into the mid-90s. The stuff is legitimate, and although it’s perfectly fair to question why it’s taken Font so long to get to this point, it does seem as if the Dodgers got him using new techniques. It’s not like Wilmer Font would have the only story to tell of a delayed career breakout.
Before this hype machine spirals out of control, let me make clear that Font is absolutely no guarantee. I don’t know for a fact that Wilmer Font would be good in the majors. That’s not what this argument is about. Font’s an unknown, and, given his history, he’s more of an unknown, probably, than a “true” prospect like Honeywell. Font wouldn’t be the Dodgers’ first Triple-A K-BB% wizard, and we still haven’t seen big-league breakouts from Jose De Leon, Jharel Cotton, or Brock Stewart. These guys aren’t sure things.
But to take a different angle — two months ago, the Cubs signed Tyler Chatwood for three years and $38 million. Chatwood is five months older than Font, and is also a righty. Like Font, Chatwood has undergone Tommy John surgery. Depending on your perspective, the Chatwood investment was either an investment in analytics, or an investment in Chatwood’s possible ability to suppress hard contact. Because, in the majors, Chatwood has not racked up many strikeouts, and he’s always struggled to throw consistent strikes. The Chatwood advantage is that he has actually pitched against and retired major-league competition, but when I asked a few people in the game who they’d rather have, they said Chatwood, but by only a small gap. That was the answer across the board.
Chatwood is a risk, even independent of his health, because he doesn’t get many strikeouts, and he doesn’t limit walks. It’s a bet on either stuff or soft contact. Font would be a different sort of risk, again independent of his health, because he’s dominated Triple-A opponents, but he’s barely faced anyone in the bigs. Some people think that’s hugely important, and others figure that Triple-A success tends to be pretty telling. Font should probably get a chance in a major-league rotation. His course has been unusual, but he’s still not old, and he comes with six years of club control. He’s an atypical prospect, but he’s also ready today.
*That* is why I’m pretty high on Wilmer Font. That is why I think he could be used to offset at least a lot of the Matt Kemp contract. I can’t promise you that Font would actually work out. I’d just sure like to be a team in position to get a chance to see. The upside is not insubstantial.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
This is why I come to Fangraphs. Love it.
exactly my thoughts sadtrombone
Speaking for those who balked at the “Font as offset for Kemp” crowd, I could see him being worth one year of Kemp at $21MM. Maybe up to $25MM? Maybe a little more? But two years and $42MM? Feels like a stretch no matter how much you like Font. Even if Font is a success, his decline phase is baked into his years of control. All but the very best case scenarios involve discarding him after 4 or 5 years of league average production or worse.
That said, I very much want to see Font given a long look in the majors this year.
One thing I do wonder is to what extent bad teams need to “maximize” that $43 million. I mean, it’s obviously a lot of money, but we know pretty well that money saved in one year doesn’t carry over into a franchise’s future. That’s just not how team budgets tend to work. So if the money isn’t otherwise going to go anywhere useful, maybe a team would be comfortable just getting like $30 – 35 million of value back. It wouldn’t be enough to offset Kemp entirely, assuming the Dodgers don’t pay him down, but it’s better than nothing. Basically just thinking out loud here.
I guess the question I would have to ask is would team X buy player A for $43 mil? I just don’t see how any team would be willing to take anyone not in the top 100, regardless of if the Dodgers would do it.
At the very least, it seems like a second player would be necessary. Perhaps one of those stereotypical low minors pitchers with a 95 mph fastball and a whole lot of uncertainty.
The Phillies could do this and immediately cut Kemp.
It might make sense for the Pads, too.
Can you and Ben please have a guest on to explain multi-year budgeting? All of the owners are billionaire investors who know a lot about making investments now to see things pay off in the future. I don’t understand why budgets fluctuate so wildly and a GM can’t “save” money now to use in the future… Maybe Loria and Angelos are irrational but I’m sure the Guggenheim folks, big corporations like Rogers and Liberty Media, etc completely understand a multi-year budgeting process.
Well hot damn. Font really does look interesting. Seeing his pitches really sold me. He probably doesn’t offset all of Kemp’s dead money but i’m on-board
Jeff, have you considered starting a cult?
In the interest of intellectual honesty you should know that two pitches after that curveball the dude hit a massive homer
The dude looks to be Trevor Story, no shame in that
Not sure I’d risk $43m on an older prospect based on seeing him command three pitches in a garbage-time outing in which the opposing batters were motivated to expand their strike zones (and in which he gave up a bomb). His AAA numbers are more compelling but not $43m compelling. I think the question becomes “How much does LAD need to shed to stay under the cap and get Darvish?” Then do the math to figure out how much of Kemp’s salary they need to eat in such a trade and gauge the prospect based on that.
That only works if some other team has an interest in helping LAD get under the cap. My bet – that is a null set.
His results and complete lack of exposure seems similar to Yonny Chirinos but with more strikeouts and fewer GBs Both interesting guys to me.
yesss thank you jeff
Very good points here. I imagine if you knew 100% that Matt Shoemaker was gonna pitch like a 3/4 starter when he got to the majors, you’d give up something pretty good to get him. Not that Font is anything like a guarantee, but just interesting to think about how a team would value taking a chance on an older guy with team control, good stuff, and good ratios.
I wonder if a team would be more likely to take a chance on Font by buying him for dead money rather than trading a prospect for him. If he’s not in a Kemp trade and the Dodgers don’t find room for him at 5th starter or long man, I guess we’ll see what a team is willing to give up.
Who else came here expecting an article written about an actual font type by Sullivan whilst sitting on an icy stovetop?
I don’t think anyone doubts your opinion that Font is an interesting prospect.
I’m guessing all arguments are along the lines of, “a team better get more than Font if they take on Kemp’s contract”. I would agree with those arguments.
I guess what doesn’t make sense to me is that, given his age, level, and being out of options, Font is a win-now kind of player. He’s most valuable I think to a small market team which is trying to go for it. If that’s the case, that team does NOT want to take Kemp’s salary.I think a team that would take Kemp would prefer a younger prospect with options which they could develop.
If the Dodgers want to make this deal in order to sign Darvish, you have to ask which team would prefer to make this trade rather than just signing Darvish themselves. This would be more of a mid-market team that is not committed to contending, but who wants to remain in the mix. I think this is the kind of trade the A’s or Rays would make but just at a smaller scale than Kemp’s salary.
Phillies?
The Phillies are pretty much the answer to all of these questions, I think.
Phillies take that deal along with $8-10 million cash?
Jeff, I’d love to hear your take on a $ valuation of Font would be in this homogeneous era of front offices (maybe Kiley might have some insight?) and what a realistic package would look like. Knock this premise outta the park, son!
Would it be easier for the Dodgers to just keep Font?
2018 Steamer Projections:
Font: 10.55 K/9, 2.66 BB/9, 3.60 FIP
Darvish: 10.18 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 3.70 FIP
To be fair, Steamer is also projecting more than half of Font’s innings to be in relief and not as a starter. But yeah, either way Steamer thinks he’ll be good.
Who would want to do a favor like this for the Dodgers, especially knowing that it would then put them in a more favorable position to acquire Darvish? I understand Atlanta’s marginal benefit in their half of the Kemp trade, but I’m still surprised that any team in the National League would be willing to help put the league’s strongest team in an even better position.
Outside of the Phillies, who exactly in the National League would be interested in trading for Matt Kemp and has CBT space? Dave Cameron is good but I doubt his analytics convinces AJ Preller and the Padres to make the trade with a division rival.
Chances are that if he gets traded, Matt Kemp goes to one of the American League teams that make sense like the White Sox or the Athletics.
You’re looking at this wrong, you still seem to think that other teams would find value in Kemp as a baseball player, I think every front office knows he has none.
Preller literally made a trade with the Dodgers to get Kemp a few years back so…
How did that work out?
Also we live in the today not a few years ago
Is Wilmer Font serif or sans serif?
I miss NotGraphs.
Wilmer Font is Comic Sans
Is it realistic to think a team would take Font and a lottery ticket guy (I. E. Imani Abdullah or Starling Heredia) for taking on Kemp’s contract?
I mean, would you be happy if your team signed free agent Font to a 6 year 45M contract with 15M plus in incentives (arb raises)?
If $43m of that money comes in 2 years where they weren’t planning on spending the money anywhere else?
Why the hell not?
That’s a nice way to frame the question of his value.
No, wouldn’t want my team to sign him for 6/$45 but I’d definitely be on board with 6/$20-30. I think Font + two interesting 45FV lottery tickets sounds about right if the Dodgers don’t throw in any money.
The central question is does Darvish improve the Dodgers postseason “rotation” (quotes since they use a pretty quick hook). After the World Series, they may not be convinced of that – at least not 9 figures worth of convinced. It would make sense for the Dodgers to trade veterans with one year of control to clear salary if they wanted Darvish – so much sense that if it has not happened it may be because the Dodgers are not that into it. With no other major free agent of interest and a dominant team, standing pat seems perfectly logical.
That said, Wilmer Font is interesting and this article shows us why. He is maybe even interesting enough to be Rich Hill’s piggyback starter in the playoffs if all goes well.
In simple terms, who could possibly match those numbers in AAA. They are way beyond “real good” The Dodgers don’t seem to covet him at all, so now is the time for teams to pounce and get him for a nice price. (mid level prospect)
I don’t think the Dodgers would be deterred by pitch tipping
Microsoft just copyrighted the “Wilmer Font”. When called up he will be “The player formerly known as….
The fastball in that first GIF can’t possibly be 94 mph, unless there’s a technical glitch.
If the Dodgers clear salary, I doubt it’s to give 5 years and 100M+ to a post Tommy-John, age-31 old pitcher who contributed with 2 disastrous starts in the World Series, especially when they already have three upper-echelon starters and significant depth.
And the World Series wasn’t the first time there were rumors of pitch-tipping; a few bad starts with Texas led to that chatter. There are enough physical risks with a TJ guy — I’d rather avoid a guy that has to consciously think about his delivery and make sure he’s not tipping pitches, on top.
This coming from a Dodgers fan who was beyond thrilled at his deadline acquisition and greatly appreciates his vast arsenal of pitches and overall talent.
Excuse my ignorance, but how do projection systems handle a guy like this, entering his age-28 season with virtually no MLB experience under his belt? Just wondering, as I imagine the list of guys who have been rookies at 28+ and gone on to become stud SPs is pretty short (excluding players from foreign major leagues).
Isn’t there some adjustment for age relative to level, or was this guy just dominant even with that taken into account? ZIPS has him looking solid with 1.9 zWAR in 126.1 IP, and the other projections are pretty rosy as well.
I thought that Wilmer Font was a great prospect for pitching in Asia in 2018. He was really good at the AAA level, but hasn’t pitched much at the major league level going into his age 28 season, so a $1 million offer from an NPB or KBO team would be very inviting.