Ian Kinsler Compared to a Good Dustin Pedroia Season
Note: I made a huge screw-up, and for whatever reason, I didn’t catch it, but Dustin Pedroia didn’t win the MVP award in 2011. He won it in 2008. I’m an idiot. Please try to enjoy the praise of Ian Kinsler without regard for the fact that the primary point of the post is wrong.
Over the weekend, the All-Star rosters were announced, and Ian Kinsler’s name was not among the participants. This probably isn’t a huge shock, given that Robinson Cano is one of the game’s most visible stars and Jose Altuve leads the league in batting average. Kinsler’s value has always been less obvious than many bigger name stars.
But just for fun, I’d like to offer a comparison between Kinsler’s 2014 season and a recent season from a second baseman that resulted in an MVP award resulted in a ninth place finish and this writer looking like a moron. For the sake of the comparison, Kinsler’s numbers have been extrapolated out to match the same number of plate appearances as Pedroia received that year.
| Season | Name | PA | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Dustin Pedroia | 731 | 195 | 134 | 37 | 3 | 21 | 102 | 91 | 86 | 85 | 1 | 26 | 8 |
| 2014 | Ian Kinsler | 731 | 206 | 131 | 50 | 4 | 21 | 116 | 87 | 35 | 75 | 6 | 17 | 6 |
If Kinsler sustained this pace all year and ended up with the same 731 plate appearances that Pedroia racked up three years ago, he’d finish with more hits and more extra base hits than Pedroia got in the year he was named the league’s Most Valuable Player. He’d score more runs and have essentially the same number of RBIs. Really, the only significant advantage Pedroia would have is the 50 extra walks, which drive a much higher on base percentage than Kinsler is posting at the moment. But even when you look at rate stats rather than extrapolated counting numbers, the lines are similar.
| Season | Name | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Dustin Pedroia | 0.307 | 0.387 | 0.474 | 0.375 | 133 |
| 2014 | Ian Kinsler | 0.302 | 0.339 | 0.480 | 0.357 | 125 |
Yes, Pedroia has the big OBP advantage, but the changes in league run scoring and the differences in their home parks make up for a decent amount of that gap. By wRC+, which adjusts for both league averages and park factors, Pedroia’s offensive edge is fairly minimal. And even that advantage starts to erode once you include baserunning value, as Kinsler is already at +2.9 runs on the bases this year, while Pedroia was basically a league average runner in 2011.
Let’s go back to the extrapolated totals, only focusing on the components of WAR.
| Season | Name | Batting | Base Running | Fielding | Positional | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Dustin Pedroia | 27.9 | 0.3 | 18.1 | 2.4 | 7.6 |
| 2014 | Ian Kinsler | 20.8 | 5.8 | 12.4 | 2.5 | 7.1 |
Pedroia’s hitting is more valuable, thanks to the extra 50 walks, but note that Kinsler basically wipes out the battind difference with his baserunning. Now, sure, baserunning is a thing that not a lot of people care about, but then again, so are walks. Pedroia was particularly good at one of the undervalued ways of helping a team score runs; Kinsler has been good at the other one.
UZR liked Pedroia’s defense more than it likes Kinsler’s this year, and I don’t think there’s much of a question that Pedroia is the superior defender. Extrapolating half a season of UZR is not good analysis, so don’t take this as evidence that Kinsler is as good defensively as Pedroia is. He’s not, and I’m not trying to say he is.
But I do think it’s worth pointing out that, even if you think Kinsler’s defensive value is being overstated here, his overall season numbers to this point are not much different than what half a season of Pedroia’s year looked like. I don’t really care much that he didn’t make the All-Star team, but we’ve recognized the value of seasons like this before, and we should be able to do it again.
All-Star or not, MVP vote getter or not, Ian Kinsler is one of the primary reasons the Detroit Tigers are a good team again. While the most obviously beneficial part of the off-season trade that brought him to Detroit was dumping Prince Fielder’s contract, getting Kinsler in return might prove to be just as big a steal.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Dustin Pedroia didn’t win MVP in 2011. Justin Verlander did. Jose Bautista finished third and Jacoby Ellsbury finished second… I’m not even sure Pedroia was top-5, since I know Miggy was fifth and I think Cano or A-Gon was fourth.
I am almost certain Pedroia won MVP in 2008.
So Dave is basically saying Kinsler should come in 9th in this years MVP voting?
Yep. This is a colossal screw-up on my part. I have no explanation. I’m leaving the post up (with a few corrections to make it factually accurate) because the Kinsler-having-a-good-year thesis is still true, but yeah, I don’t know how I made this mistake. My apologies.
First time I’ve ever seen Dave admit he made a mistake. I might just cry! hahaha
I don’t get the down votes here. It is literally the first time I’ve seen DC admit a mistake. I also find it refreshing. Good for him – he owned it and now we can move on and no one even needs to discuss it anymore. Urbanman might be sarcastic, but his post is true and everyone else attempts sarcasm and wit on all of their posts. Urbanman gets to use the message board too, people.
To fair the down votes may be residual from his post below which yells “YOU’RE WRONG” at Cameron after someone else had already pointed this out and Dave had already admitted his mistake.
Also, true or not…sometimes being a jerkface is worth the down votes all by itself.
Haha great point, Kevin! That’s more than fair. I should have read further down the comment list before posting.
Don’t sweat it, Dave. Keep up with the good work.
The offensive numbers of his actual MVP season are pretty similar, the biggest difference is the defensive stats like his 2011 a lot more. Either way the point holds about Kinsler
Pedroia had more WAR in 2011 than in 2008, and Kinsler is on about that same 7+ WAR pace.
Wobatus, shush – these people need their narrative that Dave is an egotistical maniac that can’t be trusted. It’s no matter that Pedroia essentially repeated his 2008 in 2011, despite the run environment being more stingy.
The overarching point that Kinsler is playing at an MVP-caliber level holds true. Plus, there’s a decent case to be made Pedroia was right there with Verlander, Cabrera, Ells, Bautista, Gonzalez, and Cano. Another point that can be made is how good Kinsler himself was in 2011 and how he’s basically playing up to that level once again.
This line also needs to be corrected, just FYI:
“If Kinsler sustained this pace all year and ended up with the same 731 plate appearances that Pedroia racked up three years ago, he’d finish with more hits and more extra base hits than Pedroia got in the year he was named the league’s Most Valuable Player.”
Pedroia had 213 hits in his 2008 MVP season, so this isn’t correct.
We all make mistakes Dave…
Good work acknowledging your mistake. Far better than ignoring it or taking the post down. No big deal!
Pedroia finished 9th in 2011 and won in 2008. However both WAR variants rate 2011 as his better season, so I guess there’s that
Somebody needs to learn to FACT CHECK DAVE!!! HAHA
Is this the same crazy guy who leaves boring, obsessive comments on all of DC’s articles and chats? I thought your name was urbanmann.
Just for the record, 2008 Pedroia:
726 PA’s .326/.376/.493 17-118-83-20. .377 wOBA, 127 wRC+
Which only furthers Dave’s point of how good Kinsler has been so far. IK’s 2014 compares well against not one but two of DP’s best seasons–a higher standard than just a single career year.
Scares me a little that even when Dave makes a huge “huge screw-up” it does more to enhance his point than to detract from it.
For what it is worth, Pedroia shouldn’t have won 2008.
But the thing is, Dustin Pedroia is a winner. He knows how to win. He knows that you can’t be a winner in this game by outscoring your opponent.
Nice job in 1988 with the Sox, Joe.
I think this Joe Morgan is going for the “Morgan’s Magic” that involves magically being able to talk and walk around without actually having a functional central nervous system.
Yeah, I mean, look at that batting average 😉 And to have that many RBI’s at the top of the order, he must have been super clutch with runners in scoring position. AND the Sox made the playoffs. What’s the debate here again?
Well, who should have? Pedroia is second in WAR for position players for that season whether you use the B-R version or this site’s version, but to a different player–Nick Markakis on BR and Grady Sizemore here.
You can argue for Cliff Lee, who tied Pedroia on one version and was slightly ahead on the other, but it’s been documented that Lee benefitted tremendously from a heavy dose of the worst teams in the league (and 6.1 runs per game of support) throughout that season. Roy Halladay was better that season, but he had to pitch against real teams most of the time, and didn’t go 22-3.
All in all, I would have voted for Pedroia.
It’s en vogue to argue that Pedroia winning was this massive injustice and slap in the face to baseball, but it’s really not a bad pick. People like to point to him being a counting stats darling that year and the fact that his season was great but not elite. There was just a really weak field that year and the only player that I’d say had a legitimate argument as a better choice was Sizemore.
Even then, though, the two were extremely close. Sizemore had the advantage in baserunning and power (Though slight), but Pedroia had a slight advantage in defense and a significant advantage in contact rates and strikeout rate. When it comes down to it, either was a viable pick.
Meh, I dont know about that, if not Pedroia than who? Morneau? Mauer? Youkilis? Frankie Rordriguez finished 6th in ’08. It really wasnt a great year in the AL.
Probably Grady Sizemore. He was ahead of Pedroia in basically every category except runs and strikeout rate, and played excellent defense at a premium position. I don’t remember the differences between how bWAR and fWAR are calculated, but the two systems rate Pedroia and Sizemore very differently in 2008 (bWAR: 6.9 and 5.9 // fWAR: 6.5 and 7.2).
The Indians didn’t make the playoffs that year, which probably explains the lack of MVP support.
“He was ahead of Pedroia in basically every category except runs and strikeout rate”
Actually, not really. Sizemore topped Pedroia in a few categories, but that was predominantly on the back of better power numbers. Pedroia got on base more and hit for better contact. From there it’s basically an argument of which matters more to you personally: hits or power.
And the “premium position” argument doesn’t hold much water considering Pedroia also provided excellent defense at a premium position (Both played up the middle).
All things said, they probably were roughly equally deserving of the nod considering the close WAR numbers. Again, it really just depends on what you value more.
Didn’t you just write a series of articles saying to “trust the projections” and specifically pointed out that extrapolating current performance over a full season is faulty methodology? Only to do just that in this article.
Pedroia sustained his performance over the full season and ended up with 7.6 WAR, Kinsler has only played half the season and Zips has him projected to end at 5.8 WAR, significantly lower than Pedoria’s 2011.
I don’t think Dave is actually making a predicition that Kinsler will end up with these exact final numbers, which is what he cautioned against in his earlier article. This sort of extrapolation can, though, work as a means to appreciate how good someone’s performance has been to a certain point, even if you don’t expect it to continue.
The entire article is based on extrapolating over an entire season. If you want to say how good Kinsler has been up to this point, why not compare each player’s first 84 GP in their respective seasons? Cameron routinely goes off on people who say “Player X is ‘on pace’ for this,” saying to go look at ZiPS ROS instead.
Kris, you’ve missed the point – it’s that anytime a player is on a MVP “pace” – they probably deserve All-Star inclusion, because the All-Star game is perceived to be about that exact thing – season performance to date. It’s not “Kinsler is going to keep doing this” – it’s “Kinsler already has done this, let him be on the All-Star team.”
The question we should ask then, is the All-Star game really about good performances or about “star power” and enduring fame? As in, should we be voting for people having good seasons to date, or people who have been amazing in the past but not so for this year?
I’d say it needs to be a blend, but also that Kinsler’s performance is enough to merit his inclusion.
I think Dave also covers that — saying Cano is one of the game’s most visible stars and Jose Altuve leads the league in batting average. Both Cano and Altuve (along with Dozier) show just how deep the AL position is at the AS break.
If we’re worried about his inclusion in the AS Game, why not include stats up to that point? Why extrapolate 84 games of data to 162 for the comparison? Or use Kinsler’s Updated ZiPS to compare to Pedroia’s 2011 campaign, not the extrapolation of 84 games, which DC routinely rails against…
I think he’s just doing the comparison to show what a joke it is to not include Kinsler on the All Star team not to predict that he’ll continue the pace for the rest of the year.
why not just use pedroia’s 2008 numbers and pretend you didn’t make a mistake? that’s what i would do if my mistakes were on the internet, and people cared.
I care, george.
Or, in a nutshell: Ian Kinsler is a really good player.
I don’t think it’s shocking anyone who looks at more than home runs and RBI that the Tigers are winning that trade. When it was announced, I said that Tigers fans should fall to their knees and sing Hallelujah that they got out from under that Fielder contract as easily as they did.
Just for fun, here’s a link to Rotographs’ 11/13 article on how Kinsler is in decline without much possibily of upside: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ian-kinsler-in-decline/
Goodness — sell high on Kinsler, right now???
Kinsler’s had many similar years, especially when you figure in the lot lower BABIP’s he’s had. This same article has probaly just been recycled after use in each year Kinsler wasn’t selected to the All Star team.
Kinsler is getting to be like Chase Utley. Never seems to stop posting a nice WAR, even when you’re about to stick a fork in him.
You’re not so bad in that category yourself.
Thanks Izzy! And you had an excellent run from 2003-05 (if Isringhausen) or had a pretty magical debut in your 48 plate appearances in 2000 (if Alcantara).
I also enjoyed your all-you-can-eat pizza chain.
Kinsler should make the ASG as an injury replacement….if someone gets injured and Brian Dozier can’t make it.
I was hopeful he would get the call in place of an injured Wieters…
And all Texas had to do to get rid of him was to take on 160-some-odd million of salary! Nice!
And yet all anyone talks about is Fister.
Fister, Fister, Fister. Sheesh!
Fister.
Kinsler was also pretty great in 2011 himself. 2B tend to begin declining around Kinsler’s age, which along with allowing Profar to have a role in the everyday lineup, is part of the reason Texas traded him. So far, Texas could not have been more wrong. Part of me really wishes Texas could have been able to persuade Kinsler to move to 1B, but Kinsler has so far displayed he could continue being productive at 2B despite the aging curve. I would have bet on the more athletic player in Kinsler, but I thankfully do not run an MLB franchise.
There are a lot of ways Texas could have got rid of Kinsler, made room for Profar, or both, that didn’t involve taking on Prince Fielder.
You saying I’m not athletic?
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/bodyfielderqa/texas-rangers-prince-fielder-takes-all-espn-magazine-body-issue
Do not… I repeat… DO NOT CLICK ON THAT LINK!!!!
That column on the Shark-Russell trade was so good that it singularly forgives this gaffe.
Dave said in that column something very similar to what I thought: it was a phenomenal, no-brainer-type deal for the Cubs, and a good one (in my mind, *probably* a good one) for the Athletics.
We all make mistakes so no need to belabor this one about Kinsler’s phantom MVP award.
The story is still quite applicable. 7.6 is Mvp territory and Pedroia has always gotten more respect than Kinsler. I’m a Red Sox fan so I’ve been busy the last 7 years beating Pedroia’s drum. The last couple I’ve seen his offensive game slip a bit and have wondered if that 8 year deal was the best idea with the influx of up the middle talent coming along (Betts and Coyle both look like serviceable ML 2B). I am truly surprised by Kinsler’s year this year. I thought the trade was a good one for the Tigers regardless but doubted Kinsler’s ability to hit outside Arlington. I’ve always thought Pedroia’s numbers would sag some outside Fenway but he has been above average outside Fenway his whole career. Kinsler had an OPS+ of 83 on the road for his career so I figured we would see something like an average player in Detroit. He has totally exceeded my expectations with the Tigers. Kinsler vs. Pedroia goes all the way back to Arizona State where they played two years together. They hit the campus the same year and started with Kinsler at SS and Pedroia at 2b. Two weeks into Spring practice the coach switched them and Kinsler went in the 17th round of the 2003 draft as a SS. Pedroia went in the second of the 2004 draft as a SS. Thank you for keeping this article up. I compare these two in my head and on the player pages all the time. I’ll be interested when we look back at the end of their respective careers how close they are in overall value and who comes out on top. Although Kinsler is two years older I can see him aging more gracefully than Pedroia and having the better career.
Clown handle bro.
I agree.