If KATOH Had a Team in the Draft
Now that I’ve projected all of the college players taken (and not taken), I thought it would be fun to see what would have happened if a team picked straight from the KATOH rankings. In practice, this would be a terrible strategy, as KATOH would be picking from a talent pool less than half the size of everyone else’s. Since I only have projections for guys who played regularly in Division 1 this year, a lot of talent would not even be considered. All high-school, junior-college, Division II, and Division III players — plus Division I players who were injured or benched — would not be eligible.
It also doesn’t account for the fact that many of KATOH’s top guys were near certain to fall to the middle or late rounds. Or that some had likely informed teams they were going back to school next year. A competent front office would have drafted accordingly, rather than blindly picking names off of a list. In an effort to compensate for these disadvantages, I gave KATOH the No. 1 pick in the draft and the top pick in the two supplemental rounds, as well. I excluded registered sex offender Luke Heimlich from KATOH’s draft board, as all 30 MLB teams did the same with their own boards.
Right now, this is nothing more than a list of names, consisting mostly of non-prospects. But it will be fun to look back in a few years to see how these guys fare. Most of these picks will probably look silly in hindsight, but most draft picks look silly anyway, especially once you get past the first few rounds.
Rd | Name | Pos | School | Actual Result | KATOH |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brendan McKay | LHP/1B | Louisville | 4th Overall to Tampa | 8.0 |
1s | Griffin Canning | RHP | UCLA | 2nd Round to Los Angeles (AL) | 6.6 |
2 | Brian Howard | RHP | TCU | 8th Round to Oakland | 2.5 |
2s | Darren McCaughan | RHP | Cal State Long Beach | 12th Round to Seattle | 2.3 |
3 | Connor Seabold | RHP | Cal State Fullerton | 3rd Round to Philadelphia | 2.2 |
4 | Devon Perez | RHP | U Oklahoma | 21st Round to Los Angeles (AL) | 2.1 |
5 | Bailey Ober | RHP | College of Charleston | 12th Round to Minnesota | 1.9 |
6 | Noah Bremer | RHP | Washington | 6th Round to Texas | 1.9 |
7 | Tyler Holton | LHP | Florida State | 35th Round to Miami | 1.6 |
8 | Jimmy Herron | CF | Duke U | 31st Round to New York (AL) | 1.5 |
9 | J.J. Schwarz | C | Florida | 38th Round to Tampa | 1.5 |
10 | Deacon Liput | 2B/SS | Florida | 29th Round to Los Angeles (NL) | 1.4 |
11 | Robert Garcia | LHP | UC – Davis | 15th Rouns to Kansas City | 1.3 |
12 | Tyler Stevens | RHP | U New Mexico | 18th Round to Los Angeles (AL) | 1.0 |
13 | Mike Gretler | 3B | Oregon State | 39th Round to Pittsburgh | 0.9 |
14 | Cody Anderson | LHP | Washington State | Undrafted | 0.9 |
15 | Jared Janczak | RHP | Texas Christian | Undrafted | 0.9 |
16 | Brock Fulkerson | RHP | SIU-Edwardsville | Undrafted | 0.8 |
17 | Brooks Wilson | RHP | Stetson U | 24th Round to Texas | 0.7 |
18 | Luke Lind | RHP | North Dakota State | Undrafted | 0.7 |
19 | B.J. Myers | RHP | West Virginia | Undrafted | 0.7 |
20 | Jake Mangum | CF | Mississippi State | 30th Round to New York (AL) | 0.6 |
21 | Devin Hemmerich | LHP | Norfolk St U | 26th Round to Los Angeles (NL) | 0.6 |
22 | Matt Brown | RHP | San Jose St U | 27th Round to San Francisco | 0.6 |
23 | John Sheaks | RHP | Long Beach State | Undrafted | 0.6 |
24 | Brendan Burns | RHP | Ball State | Undrafted | 0.6 |
25 | Josh Rojas | 2B | Hawaii | 26th Round to Houston | 0.5 |
26 | Cody Roberts | C/RHP | North Carolina | 38th Round to Miami | 0.5 |
27 | Brendan Hornung | RHP | Hawaii | Undrafted | 0.5 |
28 | L.T. Tolbert | IF | South Carolina | Undrafted | 0.5 |
29 | Steven Ledesma | RHP | UC Santa Barbara | Undrafted | 0.5 |
30 | J.J. Hancock | C | Washington State | Undrafted | 0.5 |
31 | Cal Stevenson | OF | Arizona | Undrafted | 0.5 |
32 | Taylor Schwaner | IF | SE Louisiana | Undrafted | 0.5 |
33 | Ryan Anderson | IF | UC Davis | Undrafted | 0.5 |
34 | Hunter Simmons | IF | Utah | Undrafted | 0.5 |
35 | A.J. Jones | RHP | Long Beach State | Undrafted | 0.5 |
36 | Nelson Mompierre | C | Missouri | Undrafted | 0.4 |
37 | Ryan Simpler | RHP | East Tennessee State | Undrafted | 0.4 |
38 | Conner Dotson | RHP | West Virginia | Undrafted | 0.4 |
39 | Nelson Martz | RHP | SIU-Edwardsville | Undrafted | 0.4 |
40 | Andrew Weston | RHP | Cal State Northeridge | Undrafted | 0.4 |
UD | Luke Heimlich | RHP | Oregon State | Undrafted | 6.4 |
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Have you ever tried to see which team is KATOH most like by comparing their prospects/college picks scouting grades to their KATOH grade?
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