If the Red Sox Lose David Price…
Heading into spring training, it looked as though there were five clear favorites for division titles plus the prospect of an interesting battle in the American League West. As in any year, injuries were always likely to have some kind of influence on those various divisional races. Now, still at the beginning of March, it’s possible that such an injury has already occurred: according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, Red Sox left-hander David Price is seeking a second opinion on his elbow from Dr. James Andrews. The phrase “second opinion” combined with “James Andrews” isn’t frequently associated with ideal outcomes, and the Red Sox “are not optimistic” about the situation, per Jeff Passan.
If Price does indeed undergo Tommy John surgery and misses the 2017 season, the big advantage possessed by the Red Sox over the rest of the division would diminish considerably. Looking at the projections that include Price, the Red Sox profile as one of the very best teams in baseball, according to our Depth Chart Projections.
| Team | Bat | Pit | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 25.3 | 25.9 | 51.1 |
| Cubs | 27.4 | 22.5 | 49.9 |
| Indians | 24.4 | 23.3 | 47.7 |
| Red Sox | 23.8 | 22.7 | 46.5 |
| Astros | 26.7 | 19.7 | 46.4 |
| Nationals | 21.8 | 22.4 | 44.2 |
| Giants | 22.0 | 20.2 | 42.2 |
| Blue Jays | 23.9 | 17.2 | 41.1 |
| Mets | 17.1 | 22.6 | 39.6 |
| Mariners | 20.5 | 17.9 | 38.5 |
| Yankees | 18.8 | 19.2 | 37.9 |
| Pirates | 20.5 | 17.1 | 37.6 |
| Angels | 21.7 | 15.5 | 37.2 |
| Cardinals | 19.5 | 17.7 | 37.1 |
| Orioles | 20.8 | 15.7 | 36.5 |
| Rangers | 19.5 | 16.3 | 35.8 |
| Rays | 18.3 | 17.3 | 35.6 |
These are the top-17 teams by projected WAR — a group that includes all five AL East teams. Unsurprisingly, Jeff Sullivan noted just yesterday that the AL East looks to be the toughest division in baseball. David Price is currently projected for 4.7 WAR, seventh-highest total in baseball, although not highest on his team, as the Red Sox’ trade for Chris Sale would still leave the Red Sox with a clear ace and front-of-the-rotation starter. Entering the spring, Boston’s staff was heavy on the top and very light on depth. When Eno Sarris examined starting pitching depth recently, the Red Sox were near the bottom of the league.
The Boston rotation still features Chris Sale and Rick Porcello. Eduardo Rodriguez projects to be roughly league average, and Drew Pomeranz should be better than that in the innings he does pitch. That’s still a pretty good front four. At the fifth spot, Steven Wright is a pretty good guy to have, as well. Before the injury, our projections had him pitching throwing just under 100 innings at a league-average rate. That’s really good for a fifth starter. We can probably add another 50 or so innings to Wright’s totals and get half a win back of what the team might lose with Price. After that, though, it’s tough to mitigate the loss of Price.
Teams generally count on eight starters per year making significant contributions. Teams averaged around 10 starters total per season. After Wright, the Red Sox are looking at a combination of Roenis Elias, Brian Johnson, Henry Owens, and maybe a return to the rotation from Joe Kelly. Given Rodriguez’s youth (which might cause his innings total to be monitored )and Pomeranz’s injury risk, we can probably look for 100 innings from these starters without accounting for another major injury. Here’s what those players have done and what they are projected to do this season if called upon.
| MLB IP | Career ERA | Career FIP | Projected ERA | Projected FIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Owens | 85.0 | 5.19 | 5.00 | 4.98 | 5.15 |
| Roenis Elias | 286.2 | 4.21 | 4.33 | 4.69 | 4.71 |
| Brian Johnson | 4.1 | 8.31 | 4.52 | 4.77 | 4.82 |
Not a looker in the bunch. Owens had 21 strikeouts and 20 walks in 22 innings last season over five starts. The 24-year-old has had problems issuing walks throughout his professional career. Roenis Elias pitched decently for the Seattle Mariners in 2014 — not quite average but decently above replacement. In 2015, he was a little bit worse than that in fewer starts for Seattle, and last season, he walked more than 10% of hitters in Triple-A, only appearing in three MLB games. Brian Johnson pitched well in Triple-A during both 2014 and 2015, struggled to start 2016, missed time after admirably coming forward with anxiety issues, and did pitch a little better on his return, recording a 4.01 FIP and 2.90 ERA in 11 starts.
There’s also the Joe Kelly option. Kelly is currently tapped to be an above-average reliever for a solid Red Sox bullpen, but he has been a mediocre starter in the past. It’s not really clear that Kelly would provide more value to the Red Sox as a starter than in the bullpen. So where does that leave Boston?
They’re probably fine for right now. If they want to keep their current advantage on the division, they could double down with the White Sox and bring over Jose Quintana, but that doesn’t seem very likely, even with Dave Dombrowski at the helm. On the free-agent market, Colby Lewis hasn’t closed any doors and Doug Fister is very available. Either one of them should be able to provide innings better than the Red Sox’ current options after their top five. The Red Sox could also hold tight for a while, wait until they have an actual need, and then trade for an innings-eater on a lesser team.
Outside of the Quintana option, the Red Sox are staring at a four-win loss just as the calendar is flipping to March. Looking at the projections above and removing four wins from the Red Sox pitching staff means that league-wide, the Red Sox move closer to the middle. They’re still in pretty good shape, though, as the amended table from above indicates.
| Team | Bat | Pit | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 25.3 | 25.9 | 51.1 |
| Cubs | 27.4 | 22.5 | 49.9 |
| Indians | 24.4 | 23.3 | 47.7 |
| Astros | 26.7 | 19.7 | 46.4 |
| Nationals | 21.8 | 22.4 | 44.2 |
| Red Sox | 23.8 | 18.7 | 42.5 |
| Giants | 22.0 | 20.2 | 42.2 |
| Blue Jays | 23.9 | 17.2 | 41.1 |
| Mets | 17.1 | 22.6 | 39.6 |
| Mariners | 20.5 | 17.9 | 38.5 |
| Yankees | 18.8 | 19.2 | 37.9 |
| Pirates | 20.5 | 17.1 | 37.6 |
| Angels | 21.7 | 15.5 | 37.2 |
| Cardinals | 19.5 | 17.7 | 37.1 |
| Orioles | 20.8 | 15.7 | 36.5 |
| Rangers | 19.5 | 16.3 | 35.8 |
| Rays | 18.3 | 17.3 | 35.6 |
The Red Sox are still one of the best teams in baseball, but their lack of pitching depth could prove troublesome later on the season. Here’s what the divisional race looks like for the Red Sox.
| Team | Bat | Pit | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 23.8 | 18.7 | 42.5 |
| Blue Jays | 23.9 | 17.2 | 41.1 |
| Yankees | 18.8 | 19.2 | 37.9 |
| Orioles | 20.8 | 15.7 | 36.5 |
| Rays | 18.3 | 17.3 | 35.6 |
Where the Red Sox were once clear favorites, the division could now be a toss-up. Boston was projected for 93 wins before the Price news, seven games clear of the Toronto Blue Jays. Now, the teams will be within a few games of each other. The Red Sox were able to avoid the Wild Card last year and looked to be in great position to do so again this year. If the team lacks a healthy David Price, though, that task will be a whole lot tougher.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
The biggest benefactors might be Cleveland or Houston if they were to face Boston in the playoffs, assuming these teams make it there.
– insert joke about David Price playoff woes here –
– insert an emotional overreaction to the joke with a SSS claim here –
– insert irrelevant Clayton Kershaw downvote bait here –
Minor point, You took away WAR from Boston, but those Wins have to reassigned else where, which will probably make the WAR race much tighter than the chart above.
The more I think about this, the more confused I become. Removing a top-end pitcher from the population should lower the league-average FIP, but increase the league-average wOBA. Even though position players get a larger share of WAR than pitchers, I think these two effects might cancel out? Or maybe the “replacement level” would get a slight bump? I don’t really know…
Regardless, I think the point you are really trying to make is about win projections, not WAR projections. Which is very different and, thankfully, much simpler to think about.
Indeed. It is entirely possible Boston was destined to lose every game Price started 1-0 on errors committed by the Boston defense in no-hitters, or to have him go no-no through 6 innings in every start, only to have the Sox bullpen give up runs that win the game. Exaggerations aside, it’s quite possible for a 4 WAR pitcher to nevertheless watch his team lose the majority of the games he starts. Team wins are zero sum, but player WAR doesn’t work quite the same way.
MLB players accrue 1000 WAR per 2430 team games (81 home games per team x 30 teams = 2430). If David Price is projected for +4.7, the other players are projected for 995.3 WAR. If Steven Wright recovers half a win of the Price value, that’s still about 4 WAR being spread across the league. League-wide WAR per game is static.
Maybe Dombrowski can go back to the White Sox, and remind them how much he overpaid to get Chris Sale, and ask for a “sale” price to throw in Quintana now.
Pursuing Quintana seems somewhat logical for the Red Sox, albeit maybe a panic move, but I wonder if it wouldn’t maybe just motivate other teams to see weakness and do the same.
The Astros in particular are neck and neck with Boston in team WAR with Price, but get a big edge if the Sox lose him. They’ve been connected to Quintana anyway. If I’m them, I might suddenly feel more motivated to pounce and try to widen that gap over the Red Sox and even push past Cleveland.
Well, whatever they do, don’t put Kelly back in the rotation. That bullpen needs all the help it can get, so they should either roll with the five you mentioned or roll the dice on Colby Lewis. At least he knows the AL and had to reckon with pitching in Texas.
“That bullpen needs all the help it can get…”
Even without Kelly, their bullpen looks pretty good with guys like Ross and Barnes handling the middle innings in front Thornburg and Kimbrel. I do agree with your overall point that they’d be better off signing Colby Lewis or Fister.
Knowing how Demobrowski works, why not just go get Quintana?
Here’s an idea, if you disagree with the question – because it was a question after all – why not answer why not. Downvoting a question… the fangraphs way.
Thinking every thought that comes out of your head is important enough to warrant a response, and also whining about downvotes… your way.
The comments section, where discussions brew. How dare someone have a thought and express it in the comments section. The irony that the same question was asked further down and generated discussion too.
For what? If Chicago wants something like Musgrove, Martes, Tucker from Houston for Quintana, Boston doesn’t really have that package. Even if they dealt Groome and Devers they’re literally left with nothing for a farm system.
Price is always a non-factor in the playoffs anyway. If they get Fister or Peavy they’ll be fine. http://twtwsports.blogspot.com/2017/03/save-our-sox-how-to-replace-david-price.html
Masterful downvote baiting sir
How is the Yanks rotation 2 WAR higher than the Jays?
The figures are for all pitchers.
Their rotation isn’t. Their pitching staff is.
Blue Jays have Roberto Osuna in the bullpen, projected for 1.5 WAR, and then Jason Grilli I guess? Yankees have Chapman and Betances, projected for almost 5 WAR between them.
sure but come now – which staff would you take?
Dodgers?
When it’s a tie game in the 7th? Or with a one-run lead going into the 8th?
Yankees every time. I do not like the lack of Ks (Stroman, Sanchez, Estrada, Happ) and the repeated reliance on outperforming peripherals (Estrada, Happ) in that rotation. I’ll take Tanaka, the relief aces, and two high-potential young guys (Pineda and Severino) over Toronto’s one relief ace and collection of mediocrity.
Ill give you the bullpen no problem because Chapman and Betances is better than anyone in the Jays pen.
Lack of Ks from Estrada? He would have the 3rd best k/9 on the Yankees behind Pineda and what Green did in 45 innings? Estrada was 25th among starters in k/9.
Repeated reliance on outperforming peripherals for Happ? 2016 was the only time his FIP was significantly higher than his ERA.
Yankees only had 79 more strikeouts over 1400 innings which only 0.68 more per 9 than the Jays – which is better but not by much. And that was with 170 innings from Dickey with a 6.68 k/9. Jays can easily make up the strikeout difference just by the Yankees losing Miller and the Jays replacing Dickey’s k/9 of 6.68 to Liriano’s 9.29 career average.
Yankees have the clear advantage in the pen. Jays have a clear advantage in the rotation. Deeper, durable, and better track records in more recent years.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,38,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59&season=2016&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=15552,5372,15890,15764,404
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,38,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59&season=2016&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7410,11490,13431,1118,3201
Jays rotation could be better replacing Dickey with Lirirano, Stroman and Sanchez progressing and Estrada in a contract year. Yankees pen lost Miller and could get worse and the Jays pen could be the same as last year, better or worse – no way of knowing. Same uncertainty goes for the Yankees rotation. Nova and Eovaldi are gone. Severino was awful last year. Sabatahia was great last year but can you rely on him again looking at his 2014 and 2015? His velocity is dipping and he really out performed his peripherals in 2016, something he doesnt do often. Pineda and Tanaka are the only consistent guys. Both have injury concerns over the last 2 years.
Maybe I’m missing something, but, compared to the 2016 team, all the Red Sox really have done on the pitching side, in the event Price is out for the year, is to swap in Sale for Price. It’s not that much of a difference–if anything Sale is better. They have lost Ortiz, but they scored a ton last year, and if their prospects are remotely up to the hype, they should be fine, just not as high performing as was anticipated. I don’t say this with any pleasure, being a Yankees fan, but I don’t see the Yankees, at least, being a credible threat to the Red Sox in 2017.
You are apparently missing the entire article, which makes clear that — even without Price — the Red Sox are still projected to win the division while the Yankees are projected to finish closer to last place than to second place. Based on the projections, the threat is coming from the Blue Jays, not the Yankees.
You have a real way with words. Something in what I actually said that was insufficiently admiring of your point of view, and therefore subject to insult?
The article isn’t really about the Yankees at all. It’s about the Red Sox moving from clear runaway favorites back down closer to the pack.
If the argument is that the 2017 Red Sox without Price would be the same as the 2016 Red Sox, well, this article agrees. The AL East race was pretty tight last year. It should be pretty tight again this year.
We don’t disagree. I identified myself as a Yankees fan and said I didn’t think they had a chance. I compared 17 Red Sox to 16 and said I thought they should be fine. Dominant we will have to wait to see.
I don’t know, the Jays got Steven Pearce and Kendrys Morales so surely they project to have all the WARZ right?
The projections ignore the Yankees’ financial ability to fill any hole they want come July sell-off time. I’d spitball that as being worth an extra WAR.
I can see the Yankees picking up a salary dump if they thought the player had value, but I can’t see them trading off valuable younger assets after the directional change last year.
Yes, hence ‘financial ability’ rather than ‘tradeable prospects’ or whatnot. There are always teams looking to dump contracts come July.
The Red Sox have this ability too…
No idea why this is being downvoted. It’s basically accurate.
The projections forecast regression from several players – notably Betts, Bradley and Leon – in addition to the loss of Ortiz. Ortiz alone was a MASSIVE force last year, and given the way that lineups scale non-linearly, one can expect a pretty precipitous drop in run scored this year. Sale is better than Price, no question, but the safe money is that the 2017 Sox lineup will be a fair bit worse than the 2016, even taking the “over” on wildcards like Benintendi and Swihart.
The loss of Price would obviously be huge. It drops the Red Sox rotation from “in the conversation for best in the league” to “well, they’re a contending team” but without the depth which usually goes along with that position. Basically, the best the Red Sox can hope for is a) durability from the rest of the staff, b) Johnson finds his feet in Triple-A, and c) Vasquez proves to be an under-scouted asset in the waiting. Because the lack of pitching depth is going to be a serious problem otherwise, given how many innings were penciled in next to Price’s name.
A trade for Quintana would put the Yankees right in the AL East race, probably co-favorites with the Red Sox if you think it’s a 4 win improvement. At the very least, it’s a 3 win improvement.
A month or two ago, NYY trading for Quintana made some, but not a ton of sense, especially in 2017. Now they’d be right there with the Jays and Red Sox, plus have the added benefit of somewhat solidifying the rotation going forward.
If Rick Hahn can get the Yankees and Red Sox in a bidding war over Quintana…
After Devers, the Red Sox don’t have a whole lot of top level talent left to offer.
Groome.
Groome a long way away, but definitely another high end prospect for them. Trading Devers and Groome would leave the Red Sox with pretty much nothing in the minors; got to think the White Sox would like 3+ players for Quintana similarly to Sale too. Things are working out well for Hahn so far this spring.
On the bright side, I think you’ve just answered your own question that was getting downvoted.
sox fans must have the same feeling in their gut that I had when stroman turned his knee in spring training. pretty devestating…but as those jays showed, not insurmountable.
makes it hurt a bit more now that the jays signed morales instead of EE…..jays would project for first now (if price is done).
I’m not a Red Sox fan, but I am a David Price fan, this makes me sad. Tommy John is a cruel bitch.
Hey, now. I’ve met the guy, and he seemed okay to me.
That did seem mean to the real Tommy John, I suppose it’s the UCL that’s really the cruel one here.
Don’t have UCLs and you won’t ever tear one – R.A. Dickey
Attn Red Sox: Can the Phillies interest you in Clay Buchholz?
We’ve got some piping-hot Aaron Harang, made special, just for you, Dave Dombrowski.
Clay Buchholz was sitting at 89 MPH with his fastball the other day. Just a garbage hurler.
I remember that 98 MPH wiffle ball Buchholz threw years ago. That’s way back out of sight in his rearview mirror.
Sale and Porcello the only SPers w/o an injury. No depth at all. Hanley dealing with bad shoulder, no Ortiz. Offense looks shaky IMO.
Worst case with Price, Yankee hitters will be in mourning. They feasted on him last year. Do the Red Sox have insurance? They didnt insure Pablo but certainly a Pitcher has to be insured.
Without the Price we saw in the 2nd half and with Hanleys shoulder likely to hamper his offense like in 2015, I see them at 85-89 wins. The division championship is wide open
Fangraph version of pitcher WAR appears to be FIP heavy, which likely understates projections for the Blue Jays staff. The Jays have assembled a group of “FIP busters” with skills which induce weak contact. For example, Fangraph’s WAR had Sanchez at 3.9 in 2016 vs Stroman at 3.6. Given their overall performances for the year, and as someone who watched pretty much every one of their starts, those assessments of “value” are silly. In comparison, the baseball reference version had Sanchez at 4.8 vs Stroman at 1.4, which seems reasonable given their performances. Happ’s unusual disparity between his 4 seam vs 2 seam fastballs, Sanchez’ tumbling 2 seamer, Estrada’s crazy spin rate 4 seam vs changeup, and Stroman’s extreme GB% make them functionally like a knuckler – just not great to be assessed using FIP. Liriano is a more traditional pitcher in this regard. If Price is out for the year, I’d take the Jays’ starting staff (if healthy of course) and it would really be that close. And before you laugh, BR’s WAR had Happ at 4.4 last year vs 4.9 for Sale.
So fWAR had Sanchez and Stroman at 7.5 WAR combined and bWAR had them at 6.2 WAR, according to your numbers above. Yet you think fWAR undersells the Blue Jays?
Your argument that the valuations are silly might have some merit because of how good Sanchez was in comparison to Stroman in terms of on the field results, but I don’t think that fWAR is underselling them.
Perhaps I conflated my two points to the point of confusion. fWAR clearly over stated Stroman IMO and understated Sanchez due to the FIP-based measurement of value. It is my contention that the overall Jays rotation is significantly under stated with fWAR – I chose the 2016 Sanchez/Stroman comparison as just one example of why I believe bWAR is a more reasonable measure for pitchers that “specialize” in weak contact. I think that is a reasonable characterization of Happ, Estrada and Sanchez. Stroman’s extreme GB% isn’t really the same, so he is more traditional – as is Liriano. Stroman had a pretty bad year in 2016, so if he regresses some and the top three remain stable as a group (obviously a big if…just like “if” all Red Sox starters stay healthy…), then bWAR for the starters could reasonably approach 17-18. Even with such a positive scenario, I’d expect fWAR to come in 3-5 below bWAR as a group. Ultimately, my point is that I think the Jays projection using FIP-based WAR likely understates them by 3-4 wins, and with the Price injury, the Jays may have nudged into being the favorite.
If the Red Sox Lose David Price…then this was a really bad time for them to get away from their philosophy against signing over-30 pitchers to nine-figure contracts.
You know, if the DBacks actually wanted to do that rebuilding thing, an expensive Zack Greinke comboed with a ridiculously affordable Paul Goldschmidt could fix a David Price problem as well as a Mitch Moreland problem for the Sox, while simultaneously injecting a crapton of real good young talent for a farm in desperate need of pretty much everything.
The Red Sox can’t afford the price in either direction. They’re far more likely to simply take the Greinke contract without any sweetener, and even then it seems improbable. Devers, Groome and Travis are the only top-prospects left in the system, and of those only Groome could really be traded without affecting the Red Sox immediate contention window. Travis is likely to be up and fixing the Moreland problem this year (he’s projected to be the better player already), and Devers is hoped to be the long term Sandoval anesthetic.
So basically, there’s nothing that would pay for Goldschmidt, even if he were carrying Greinke’s contract with him. Taking on Greinke’s contract (accompanied by a swap of meaningless low-minors wildcards) would be very interesting, but I doubt it’s going to happen. At least, not before the trade deadline, and even then probably not.