In Defense of Dusty Baker
Yesterday, the Nationals lost Game 3 of their division series to the Cubs 2-1, and now trail by the same margin in the series. Despite a brilliant outing from Max Scherzer, the Cubs managed to plate a couple of runs against the team’s bullpen, putting the team on the brink of elimination in the first round once again. And because the Cubs got their runs with Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez on the mound, with Max Scherzer, Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle all watching, Dusty Baker has come under fire for his bullpen management once again.
But on this one, I have to say that the criticism feels a bit unfair. If we look at the circumstances and what actually happened, it seems like Baker mostly made reasonable decisions.
Let’s start with the 7th inning. Max Scherzer carried a no-hitter into the inning, but had also thrown 90 pitches through the first six innings, and facing roughly a 100 pitch limit, it was pretty unlikely he was going to get through the inning himself. Baker let Scherzer face Willson Contreras, but with a switch-hitter Ben Zobrist and the left-handed Kyle Schwarber due up behind him, he got the lefty Solis warming.
After retiring Contreras on six pitches, Zobrist sent a 1-0 fastball into the gap for a double, the Cubs first hit of the game. And at 98 pitches, with Schwarber coming up, Baker made a tough-but-correct call to go get his ace. Instead of having a tiring Scherzer face a good left-handed hitter, he got a fresh arm in there against the pinch-hitting Albert Almora. Almora’s something like a league-average hitter, but with the pinch-hitting penalty, he was a pretty significant downgrade from Schwarber, and significantly less likely to hit a home run that would put the Nationals down a run.
And Solis, after a terrible first half while dealing with “dead arm”, earned his way into high-leverage situations with a dominant second half. After the All-Star break, batters hit just .125/.222/.172 against Solis. He struck out 28% of the batters he faced in August and 35% in September.
So Solis against Almora was pretty clearly a better matchup for Washington than a tiring Scherzer vs Schwarber. And after battling to a 3-2 count, Solis threw a slider on the outer half, but elevated it a bit too much. In truth, it wasn’t a bad pitch.
Almora reached out and made enough contact to send an 88 mph line drive just through the infield for an RBI single, tying the game at 1-1. Credit to him for good hitting, though he might have swung at ball four and he didn’t exactly crush the pitch, but I don’t know how that sequence can really result in criticism of Baker’s management. He got a good match-up, his pitcher threw a decent two-strike pitch that resulted in a chase, and a softy hit line drive found a hole. It’s baseball. It happens.
Then came the 8th inning. Brandon Kintzler remained on the mound after finishing off the 7th, and this is where you could probably most take Baker to task for managing too much like it was the regular season. The left-handed Tommy La Stella pinch hit to lead off the inning, and with the left-handed Jon Jay on deck and the left-handed Anthony Rizzo due up fourth, this would have been a good spot for Sean Doolittle. After all, you give up a run in that situation, and you’re facing Wade Davis in the top of the 9th, so with the big bats coming up, this was probably the time to use your best left-handed reliever.
But Baker stuck with Kintzler, perhaps in part because La Stella and Jay aren’t the scariest hitters around, and sticking with Kintzler meant that he could face the right-handed Kris Bryant. Not great logic, especially since he could have just gone with Ryan Madson, a significantly better right-handed reliever if he wanted that match-up, but it’s also not a total disaster of a decision.
After a leadoff walk to La Stella, Jay sacrificed, moving pinch-runner Leonys Martin to second base. In this situation, I probably would have intentionally walked Bryant and had Doolittle come in to face Rizzo. But Baker stuck with Kintzler, and to his credit, he struck out Bryant, getting a key second out. And with a lefty coming up, he did go to the pen. But he went to Oliver Perez, not Doolittle.
Perez is a pretty decent left-on-left specialist, having held LHBs to a .291 wOBA this year, and a .279 mark over the last three years. Since the start of 2015, he’s struck out 29% of the lefties he’s faced. As LOOGYs go, Perez is above-average.
He’s not Doolittle, though, and again, it’s probably fair to suggest that the team should have had their best reliever, who also happens to be left-handed, on the mound in that situation. But Perez vs Rizzo isn’t a disaster for the Nats. Most times, Perez probably wins that battle.
And, realistically, you could argue that he basically did yesterday anyway. Perez threw a high fastball that Rizzo popped up. It left the bat at 71 mph and went all of 228 feet. Balls hit with Rizzo’s exit velocity and launch angle are caught 71% of the time. When the ball fell, three Nationals defenders were within a few feet of the ball.
Rizzo blooped a ball into no-man’s land. It happens. It’s baseball.
The Nationals lost a one-run contest in which their offense hit .094/.121/.125 because the Cubs blooped 88 mph and 71 mph dunkers just in the right spots. And somehow that’s the manager’s fault.
Baker didn’t handle the situations perfectly, but he took Scherzer out at a time when he probably would have stuck with his starter too long in previous situations, and both times the Cubs knocked in runs, the match-ups were reasonable enough decisions, even if the second one wasn’t entirely optimal.
In reality, the Nationals lost because their offense got shut down again, and the Cubs got a couple of lucky hits at the right time. That’s not worth crucifying Dusty Baker over.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
My question is, HOW DOES NO ONE LAY OUT FOR THAT BALL.
I know, I know.. It’s in a position where three men could have potentially gotten it and they all pulled up to avoid collision.
But no one took charge or called the others off. That to me is inexcusable at this point in the game and the true blame needs to land on them, specifically Michael A. Taylor.
They all pulled up because that’s what you do at the very last moment when it’s clear you’re just not quite going to get there. Otherwise it’s much more likely for the ball to get away from you entirely. As to calling for a ball you then don’t get to, no that’s not a good idea.
Balls fall in sometimes. Unless you can show Taylor got a late jump or took a bad route, that’s the totality of what happened here.
I just watched the video and Taylor absolutely had a shot if he had dived. You just have to dive in that situation.
More importantly, the ball was coming in at a relatively high angle, so it’s not bouncing all the way to the wall. There are also two guys standing there as backup in case he doesn’t get to it.
Seems like you may as well take a shot there, but it’s obviously easier said than done.
I am a Cubs fan so maybe I am a little biased.
I definitely would not want anyone on the team I was rooting for to lay out for that ball. Yes, one of them probably makes the play, but in a situation like that, as catastrophic injury is extremely likely if there is any miscommunication at all.
Just imagine if Taylor called everyone off, Turner peels away a little, but Taylor’s momentum takes him into the side of Turner’s knee. Or Werth doesn’t hear and they collide, and suddenly they are down two starting OF.
Players have been injured just way too many times on plays almost exactly like that, that it just isn’t worth it to go for it.
If it was the other way around, I would be pissed at the luck of where the ball landed, rather than the players.
The danger of a collision is why someone needs to call everyone else off before trying to make a play on the ball. Logically that’s Taylor because he’s faster than Werth and has a better angle on the ball than Turner.
I can see the sense of the “safety first” idea during a lot of regular season situations, but this situation was the 8th inning of a tied postseason game.
Biggest criticism of Taylor is that he cannot/does not take charge when he’s CF. It’s a personality thing… he always deferred fly balls to Harper, Werth, and Desmond in the past, even if they had little chance of making the play and he at least had the skills to make a play. Since taking over for Eaton this year, it hadn’t been an issue until last night.
I understand your arguments, but why would you pitch to Rizzo with 2 outs and first base empty. He came through is similar situations THREE times in the first 2 games. I would take my chances with Contreras over Rizzo even if a lefty is pitching.
With all this being said, if the Nats did only half of what their offense did in the regular season they wouldn’t have to worry about these play calls.
I totally agree with everything you wrote, and they lost the game because of the offense, but Baker has to manage the game in front of him, not the one that should happen. I shouldn’t speculate, but it sure looks like Baker was saving Madson and Doolittle for defending a potential (improbable) late-inning lead, which is inexcusable at that stage in the series.
Not sure if you noticed, but after the hit Rizzo was screaming: “RESPECT ME.”
I think he was having the same thoughts.
Whether or not this would have been the right decision, I’m surprised people are liking a comment that is citing a sample size of three to rationalize an opinion.
…because a sample size of 3 wins is all it takes in the playoffs…
That’s a hallmark of bad management.
One of the most important things I ever learned from Bill James and sabermetrics is to never, ever make a judgment based on small sample size.
I’m of the opinion that “reasonable” decisions aren’t enough in the playoffs. If the manager isn’t making the absolute BEST decision in undeniably the highest leverage moment of a playoff game, they deserve some questioning. It’s the same reason I feel Maddon deserved criticism in game 2, even though there were defenses for his calls. The problem isn’t that Perez faced Rizzo, it’s that Doolittle didn’t
Moreover, Madson and Doolittle didn’t even appear in this game! That’s insane by today’s managerial standards. Even if you don’t object to the specific matchups Dusty created, I think you have to accept a bigger-picture criticism that such a tight playoff game needs to feature by far your two best relievers.
It’s almost as if he wanted to save those guys and thought he could sneak through with Perez. I never understand the concept of saving your closer for the save. You may never get there!
You guys are forgetting the game is tied, you can’t just blow your best relievers for 1 out situations in a tied game, because you won’t have any good relievers left if the game goes to extra innings, which it’s good a good probability of doing.
if you were talking about bringing in Doolittle to face Rizzo with a 1 run lead, yeah, you can burn your best guys for matchups, but when you may play for several more innings, you are much better off getting 1 inning from Kintzler, using Perez in a matchup situation, and being able to use your remaining quality relievers to pitch a 9th, 10th and 11th.
If they do play the matchup there and burn Doolittle and Kintzler, then have Madson pitch the 9th, and they don’t score, they’re going to be heading into extra innings where their best available pitchers are Perez or their game 4 starter and needing to depend on them to possibly go multiple innings. If they did that, there would be a LOT of criticism.
But if you don’t get through the 7th clean, then there is no 9th, 10th and 11th.
Sure, but using your best relievers in high leverage spots doesn’t mean using them in 1 out matchup roles in high leverage spots. You have to make some kind of compromise in the interest of length unless your plan is to use Tanner Roark for 3-4 innings in the event of a tie game.
I don’t think using your second-best lefty in a situation where they were still at an advantage is that egregious.
pretty sure therell still be a 9th but point taken.
If you are the road team, there is no 9th for your pitchers if you are losing the game. Like, what happened here.
I agree. I think that the right decision after Zobrist doubled in the 7th inning was to try to have Madson and Doolittle combine to get the last 8 outs.
As you say, it’s pretty astounding to lose a 2-1 playoff game in this way – giving up 1 run in each of the 7th and 8th innings – and never use either of a team’s two best relievers.
I vaguely recall a similar situation in Game 5 of last year’s ALDS when the best pitcher in baseball at the time was sitting in the bullpen and, of all pitchers, Ubaldo Jimenez was serving up the game ending gopher ball. Dusty’s in game managing has always been suspect, after all he is the definition of an old school dinosaur.
This series is on the Nationals offense anyway, not on Dusty Baker. They’re getting on base at a .200 clip. They’ve lost a pair of great outings from Strasburg and Scherzer.
Anyway, since you suggest walking Bryant and then having Doolittle face Rizzo. Personally, I would’ve pitched to Bryant with Kintzler, IBB’ed Rizzo, then had Madson face Contreras. It may just be splitting hairs at that point though. It wasn’t Dusty’s best managerial sequence, but it wasn’t overtly terrible either and there are clearly bigger reasons than this one situation that the Nats are down 2-1.
Your first three sentences hit the nail on the head. Any semblance of an offense in games 1 and 3 and Nats could already be moving on to the NLCS
Almora has a 137 wRC+ against LHP this year and a 147 wRC+ at home. Schwarber has a 109 wRC+ against RHP.
Exactly, why not bring in Kintzler to face Schwarber or just walk Almora once he pinch hits and face the anemic Jason Hayward.
That would have been my vote too. I don’t think he made any glaring mistakes, but he failed to see more moves ahead. In that position there is no downside for Joe to not PH Almora and Almora vs. Solis with man on 2nd 1 out seems better than Schwarber against Kinsler in terms of good things happening for the Cubs.
Good article D.C. I can’t agree with you here in some cases though. On the BP pitching decisions, I don’t lose because of Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez clinging to a 1-0 lead…. obviously the Nats offense has been abysmal, but that game was there to be won.
I don’t leave my best arms sitting when the game is in the balance… get Doolittle or Madson in there and keep the game 1-0 or 1-1.
Dustys overrealiance on Werth also has been a detriment… How isn’t a defensive sub like Robles in there in there immediately in the 7th once they go up 1-0. And it turned out both Cubs runs were scored on plays a speedier LF may have reached..
This series no doubt is on the Nats bats continued inability to perform when it counts, but when it comes to game 3. I don’t agree with Dustys decision making after the game was 1-0 Nats… losing without pitching your best arms, not putting in an obvivous defensive sub being huge.
Nice comment. But defensive stars should usually start games and be subbed in for later
This website is great, but you folks literally wrote the same article last year: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dont-blame-this-on-dusty-baker/ .
I disagreed with you vehemently then, and I do now. Not a Nats fan, but it seems like it was a huge mistake by Mr. Baker.
That’s amazing. Everything about that article is the same, even down to the key players and situation (Scherzer, Baker, pitch count, lefty coming up, call for reliever).
I feel like you write an “In Defense of Dusty Baker” article every week about something he did that we’d disagree with. It is fascinating that we could have the same controversy twice with the key players, but it’s because Baker is a creature of habit and apparently so are we.
The Patrick Reddington article to which you link doesn’t seem to be even slightly critical of Dusty.
Where I have a problem with Dusty is with his lineups in 1st 3 games. He tried to reinvent the wheel with Harper in the 2 hole instead of his normal 3 hole. 1st 3 games he had it Turner/Harper/Rendon/Murphy/Zimmerman/Werth. Today he’s got it back to Turner/Werth/Harper/Zimmerman/Murphy/Rendon. It was the pretty much regular lineup during the season.
Oh good, let’s put the Nats second worst hitter in the two hole so that he gets more AB’s, that’ll jump start the offense…./facepalm. Why is Werth even playing when Kendrick and Lind are both better options?
where i can see it is that Werth sees a lot of pitches- to the tune of the 2nd most per pa of anyone with at least 250 pa’s this year. Also, Werth does pretty well hitting out of the 2 hole- his wRC+ is 101 when in the 2 hole. But not just him, but it sets everyone else up so well. The bigger concern quite frankly is Trea Turner. If he continues like he has (0-12)- it’s a moot point.
Werth coming up in that 2 hole really would have been helpful instead of Harper in game 2.
I don’t understand what the difficulty is with understanding that the best hitters should get the most at bats. The only inning that it really matters that someone may be on in front of them is the first inning when there are people guaranteed to be in front of them, after that, between hits and walks, they are just as likely to bat 1st or 5th in any given inning. Best to just give them the most chances.
Harper would still have been on deck with 1 out.
I think this is as much about comfort as it is anything else. The old have to do something- we’re batting .121 for the series.
Or Harper may not have even come up in the 8th, as Werth could have GIDP and then been stuck facing Davis in the 9th when a HR would have been 3-2 instead of 3-3. None of it happened, so it isn’t worth arguing about.
The biggest issue though is that you are losing a plate appearance for Rendon in favor for one for Werth. Possibly one for Murphy. If any plate appearance for Werth is more valuable than one for either of those players, then I am watching the wrong thing.
I don’t buy into the “Have to do something” argument. Cubs pitchers are not exactly terrible. They are all pretty good and are all playoff caliber. All they really “have” to do is let their best hitters have the opportunity to hit the ball. The end results have really been that the Cubs have pitched abysmally for 1 inning, and spectacularly for the rest, while the Nationals have pitched very slightly less spectacularly out of the bullpen.
The Cubs aren’t exactly living up to their offensive capabilities either. That is what happens when you face good pitchers.
Rendon hasn’t been tearing it up at all either though. He’s 1-10 for the series, exactly the same as Werth.
And like I said, Werth in the 2 hole is good because he sees a ton of pitches. And statistically thru the season his wRC+ was over 100. Better than Rendon at the 2 hole.
This is all about putting everyone where they were for most of the season.
The bigger managerial screw up was Maddon not putting in a pinch runner for Schwarber after he walked in the 5th.
Solis was good in the second half, but you have to know that Schwarber is getting pinch hit for there, so why not use Kintzler who has great splits against lefties? Or even better: use your best bullpen arms first and go to Doolittle and/or Madson? Makes no sense to live and die with the 5th or 6th best pitcher in the bullpen.
Why was Scherzer on a limit? I understand that he is coming off an injury, but not really sure why that injury would limit his pitch count. Honestly, I was shocked when DUSTY BAKER took his ace out of a game so early.
Scherzer was yanked one batter too early and the consequences of that decision were readily apparent at the time. Scherzer may have been reaching the end of his day, but he was also dealing up until that point and he was slated to face Schwarber. Schwarber is a good enough hitter, but his weakness is striking out, and there are few better in the game at striking out hitters than Scherzer.
The problem with bringing in the lefty there to face Schwarber is it instantly becomes too easy to yank him for a righty pinch-hitter. Maddon already needs to get Schwarber out of the game for defensive purposes, so pinch-hitting was apparent from a mile away. I’d much rather have Scherzer face the K-prone Schwarber, and then bring in the lefty to face Heyward, who you know is taking that at bat.
Two things. Why not bring Kintzler in for Almora? And why not walk Rizzo and use Madson on Contreras? I’d much prefer those matchups than the ones Dusty went with.
Also, he’s battign Werth second tonight
Solis had to face one batter. That at bat the Cubs were getting the platoon advantage.
“Why not bring Kintzler in for Almora?”
Almora was only pinch hitting because a lefty reliever was brought in, and MLB rule 5.10(g) requires a reliever to face at least one batter once he enters the game. There wasn’t a scenario where Kintzler would face Almora. The options were going to be a LH reliever against a pinch hitter (Almora) or a RH reliever against Schwarber.
The 3-2 pitch to Almora was a changeup FYI
Dusty has won more Manger of the Year Awards (3) than he has gotten past the first round of the playoffs (2). So defend him all you want, this is what he does…
Dusty has won many honours Year protection and does not pass through the ring (2). That is why we all defend how you want, that it Sam?
Is there a worse outfield defender than Schwarber?
I don’t know… maybe I just don’t have a great opinion of Schwarber as a hitter. With a runner on 2nd, I would take my chances against the guy who strikes out 1 out of 3 times with a sub .250 BABIP against my guy who hadn’t given up a hit until 10 seconds prior.
Nats fans would have been satisfied had they died with 1 of their 3 bullpen saviors on the hill. Solis and Romero arguably may not have been on the roster given a second chance to redraw.
Sorry, Dave (and hopefully others also made this comment) but: Baker brought in a LHP with a 5.88 ERA with the tying run on 2nd. Uhhh… baker also, apparently, forgot that pinch-hitters exist, and he apparently really thought the Cubs were going to hit Schwarber there. Because Schwarber has to stay in the game? For some reason? WTF, Dusty? But really, the critique isn’t based on hindsight or some difference of opinion. The critique is: your season is on the line and the manager brought in a mediocre MR because hey, it’s the time where a MR usually comes in! Plus, lefty-lefty amirite! The thing is, the Nationals had 3 closers in the bullpen and they brought in Solis, who is bleh, and then the worst of the closers later. Those are not the choices of a manager who understands the stakes. What was the plan? Dave, even you didn’t actually show any real strategy at work in Baker’s behavior. I’m a word, he stunk.
Just clarifying, I’m saying having the lead but the tying run is on 2B, a good manager does everything possible to shut down the threat. Instead, Baker saved his ammo for the big showdown that never came. That’s so stupid and I feel like at this point most MLB teams also think it’s atupid. But Baker is Mr. Bythebook so.
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Based on years and years of watching and listening to Dusty Baker (large sample size) I am firmly convinced that he is a complete idiot who has zero business managing a baseball team. The Nats need and deserve a much better manager. Hey, Farrell is available.