In the Wild Card Race, Schedule Matters
This afternoon, I had a bit of a brouhaha with one Jonah Keri, friend of the site and of mine. With the Royals leading the Indians 5-2 at the time of our fisticuffs, Jonah tweeted the following.
The Kansas City Royals have a very real shot at making the playoffs. Last time they made it was nearly 6 years before Mike Trout was born.
— Jonah Keri (@jonahkeri) September 11, 2013
Because I have a reputation as a Debbie Downer to uphold, I went to our Playoff Odds page and noted that the listed playoff odds for Kansas City stood at just 2.7%. That didn’t account for the game the Royals were winning at the moment, so it understated their odds to some degree, but even with the victory over the Royals, I called out the Tall Canadian on his liberal use of the term “very real shot”, noting that math says that the Royals are pretty big long shots to end up with a wild card spot.
Of course, Mr. Keri prefers to poutine and Youppi to cold hard facts, so he waved off the numbers as something born out of a witches cauldron. Bah and humbug, he said, or something to that effect, before donning his Chris Getz jersey and resuming his cheerleading.
@DCameronFG I'm not a total believer in the odds reports, when you drill down to specifics. Also doesn't account for today's about-to-win.
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Because I like Jonah and want him to see the folly of his ways, I figured this was worth a post. Even with just a couple of game deficit with a few weeks still go to, why do our playoff odds calculations think the Royals have little chance of actually making the playoffs? In large part, it can be summed up by the remaining schedule.
Over the next two and a half weeks, the Royals have the following opponents left to contend with:
@ DET (3)
Vs TEX (3)
Vs CLE (3)
@ SEA (3)
@ CWS (4)
Pollyanas will look at that last week and celebrate the cake walk leading up to the season’s end, but the Royals have two of the best teams in the AL coming up, and another head to head matchup with a competitive Indians team in between. Nine of their final 16 games are against contenders, and 10 of their last 16 games are on the road.
For comparison, here’s the Indians remaining schedule.
@ CWS (4)
@ KCR (3)
Vs HOU (4)
Vs CWS (2)
@ MIN (4)
While the Royals get to finish with the White Sox, the Indians actually have two more games against Chicago than Kansas City does, and instead of playing the Tigers and Rangers, they get the Astros and Twins. The only .500 team left on Cleveland’s schedule is the Royals. They have the same lots-of-road-games problem as Kansas City does, but no one in baseball is playing a lower quality of competition down the stretch.
Just for reference, here’s the schedules for the Rays, Orioles, and Yankees too.
TB:
Vs BOS (2)
@ MIN (3)
Vs TEX (4)
Vs BAL (4)
@ NYY (3)
@ TOR (3)
Yikes. It’s a good thing the Rays have a little bit of a cushion, because that’s a gauntlet.
BAL:
Vs NYY (2)
@ TOR (3)
@ BOS (3)
@ TBR (4)
Vs TOR (3)
Vs BOS (3)
This is rough too, though those final few games against the Red Sox might be easier than they look, as the Red Sox could very well have clinched the division by that point and use the weekend to setup their playoff rotation and get their bullpen rested. Still, not easy.
NYY:
@ BAL (2)
@ BOS (3)
@ TOR (3)
Vs SFG (3)
Vs TBR (3)
@ HOU (3)
There’s definitely some big games left against the Red Sox and Orioles, but nine against the Blue Jays, Giants, and Astros gives them a bit of an edge over the other AL East teams.
The old about baseball being a marathon and not a spring is true, but marathons are not usually run on even grade. There are hills involved, and parts of the course that are significantly more difficult than others. The Orioles and Rays are about to run up a very long hill. The Royals have a steep hill in front of them that at least comes with a downward descent. The Yankees are running on pretty flat ground.
The Indians, though, are about to hail a cab. They might not look like they’re poised for a big finish after losing this series to Kansas City, but there’s a reason our playoff odds page gives them a 25% chance of making the playoffs despite just being a half game ahead of Kansas City, whose odds increased to 4.9% after today’s victory.
Looking at “games back” is no longer good enough. There are so many variables to be considered, and remaining strength of schedule is a real factor. The Indians and Royals might be nearly tied in the standings, but given their upcoming competition, it is not the virtual tie that it might appear on the surface.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
A popular mantra between Royals fans right now is “It’s not the distance, it’s the traffic”
Does ‘between’ imply that there are only 2 Royals fans?
Your comment by itself would be lame. Your comment – following an excellent comment – just makes it embarrassing.
I thought it was a great comment.
Will Fangraphs add a strength of schedule stat for played and remaining games? Is this available anywhere right now?
It would be interesting to see a study about whether there’s a real “spoiler effect” where teams without any pressure play better than expected against contenders at the end of the year.
And as a bonus that might keep you away from posts about how wrongedy wrong wrong everyone is for a couple of days.
Astros close with CIN, @CLE, @TEX, NYY. They will be a factor in every race that is still competitive. They would make an interesting case study.
I wonder if it is the other way as those teams play untested minor leaguers. I think it is probably a wash as some of those young kids actually play well. However, managers may not manage to win as much as to get young pitchers in the game.
Isn’t that that lawyer guy?
Saul Goodman, played by Bob Odenkirk. Gotta call Saul. His new series, a Breaking Bad spinoff prequel, just got greenlighted.
Or actually, Saul McGill.
thank you Mr Joke Explainer!!!!!!
Yeah, I figured it out later. Dopey me. I had just heard the show was greenlighted.
You must not have been watching last Sunday’s episode very closely.
Yeah, missed it (and missed your name). I’m an idiot, but I was excited to hear he was going to have his own show. Where’s the delete button?
Baseball is definitely not a spring
I have to agree.
Still think “very real shot” is a reasonable comment. They don’t have to win out and don’t need a major collapse from the teams ahead of them. They have a tougher road ahead, but closing a 2.5 game gap over 16 games is hardly unheard of. Would it really be crazy if they went 11-5?
I’d bet hard against the Royals, but their fans have every reason to be excited down the stretch.
The biggest problem for the Royals isn’t the 2.5 game gap. The problem is they need to pass four teams for the second wild card spot. Even if the Royals do win 11 more games, what are the odds that at least one of the teams ahead of them wins at the same rate?
“very real shot” is a reasonable comment”
…
“I’d bet hard against the Royals”
**DOES NOT COMPUTE**
“reasonable” is subjective.
And if you’re a Royals fan, 5% is pretty darn exciting.
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance?”
Eliminate divisional play and balance the schedules so everyone gets to sweep the Lastros
Unless you are the Angels, who the Astros love playing
Small samples and stuff, but Cleveland is not great on the road. KC has a winning record on the road, which of the wild card contenders, only Texas can claim.
Small samples and stuff, but the Royals have a winning record against the Tigers and a losing record against the White Sox and Cleveland.
Small samples and stuff, but Texas is sliding downwards.
Royals fans, including myself, like to grasp at straws for any shred of hope we can find. With so few games to go, everything comes with a small sample size caveat. Anything can happen over the next two weeks. Hopeless optimism and such.
saying “small samples and stuff” should not allow you to then draw conclusions from those small samples. they are still really small, despite your acknowledgement.
My point was that anything can happen in small samples, which I guess I didn’t clearly state with my final paragraph. Another point I wanted to make was that Royals fans are going to grasp at anything, small sample size or no, to reduce the cognitive dissonance.
Cardinals 2011. Rockies 2007. Boston 2004.
As long as you’re not mathematically out of contention, you’re in contention. Plus, as a Cards fan, I have no idea how you can be into the Royals, but since you are, you should enjoy every minute of it. I’ve always wished there was a real rivalry between us, maybe soon.
Annnnnd there’s the obligational backhanded compliment from the smug Cards fan.
Go Bucs.
Agreed – it just smacked of the worst kind of frontrunner douchebaggery.
yes how dare a fan of a sports team take a jab at a team of which i am not a fan.
sarcasm doesn’t come thru well in text and i dont care to write “lol” or “jk.” it really doesn’t bother me that some people who live in missouri are royals fans. i really just meant to say that Cards fans went through something similar just 2 years ago and I remember it like it was yesterday.
but i’m the one responding to people on a day-old article so i guess i’m the sucker.
Personally I think that you are the one who was in the right.
Strength of schedule is a real factor, but considering that even the best teams lose roughly 40% of their games, and even the worst win around 35%, I suspect the at the extremes the odds are probably a bit overstated/understated. While I still don’t think the Royals have a “very real” chance of making the playoffs, I would argue they are probably closer to 10% than 2%.
But over short stretches, even a team that wins only 50% of their games will be expected to have runs of 5 or even 7 wins in a row. More than enough to wash out a 2 game lead. The issue with the Royals is that there are like 4 teams with that lead on them, making it more likely that some of those teams will ALSO have win streaks.
TKay, 11-5 isn’t crazy, but it’s far from automatic, and as Dave noted, and they have a tougher than average schedule to navigate. In addition, 11-5 only gets them to half a game ahead of the Rays, and two ahead of the Orioles. So Tampa would only need to go 10-9 from here out to match them, and the Orioles 11-7 (or 11-6 for the Yankees or Indians). As the three AL East teams all play each other again, it’s very unlikely that all three could finish strong, but also unlikely that all three fade away.
Dave, “setup” is a noun, not a verb.
(I just realized it’s Jonah Keri being overly optimistic here. I’d kind of assumed it was Rany Jazayerli.)
I don’t think Rany has ever been accused of being optimistic.
I don’t disagree with this post in principle but it is written in an incredibly smarmy, know-it-all kind of way. The kind of smarminess that give sabermetrics people a bad name.
What’s more, I’m not a Royals fan, but I can’t help but feel that this site has gone out of it’s way to discredit the 2013 Royals season. A few weeks ago, when the Royals picked up Justin Maxwell, there was an article claiming that getting Maxwell was a futile move in a season where the Royals wouldn’t even finish .500. Now, with 17 games to go and the Royals 2.5 out of the wildcard and comfortably above .500, their odds — however long — of making the playoffs are treated like something no intelligent person would dare mention. Guess what? Weird things happen in baseball. The royals have a much lesser chance of making the playoffs than the Rays or Orioles, sure, but since literally no pundit (fangraphs folks included) picked them to get even this close shouldn’t we consider their season something of a success?
Yep. Cameron in particular. It’s blatant at this point. He went at it with Rosenthal today as well.
I thought that was supposed to be somewhat tongue-in-cheek for this post.
I think in this case, Dave’s know-it-all attitude was actually intended, since he is bashing a friend. There is no question that the sabermetrics crowd earn their reputation for smarminess, but I don’t actually think this is an example.
We are smarmy. But at least we are not ignorant.
I think it goes back to the James Shields trade. They made a “win now” type of trade without the roster to back it up. It was arguable whether that trade even made them better in the short-term, given their outfield holes, and it definitely made them worse long-term, and on top of everything, it put them in position of having no better than an outside shot of making the playoffs anyway.
I’m sorry to be like this, but if anybody thinks Shields has not made all the difference this year they are stoned. Argue the long-term all you want, but Myers was not going to lead them to this point. How do we know? In 2011 Frenchy had a terrific season in RF, they had no pitching, and they sucked as usual. I just cannot believe people are actually arguing that the Shields trade was not a huge win-now success.
I can’t believe you think that Frenchy’s 2011 somehow has any bearing whatsoever on the value that Myers would have provided KC this season.
Why do people assume the Royals couldn’t sign someone else to fill out the pitching staff and still kept Myers? Francisco Liriano is getting paid $1 million. There were plenty of cheap options available.
No one argues that, not even Bip, who argued, quite clearly, that the Royals didn’t have the roster to back up the Shields trade. The point never was, as your strawman argument disingenuously dismisses, that Shields wouldn’t be really good. The points were that he wouldn’t be so good (like a 10 win player) to turn a non-contender into a playoff team, and that the short-term improvement wouldn’t be worth the loss of 6 years of Myers.
Shields has been worth 3.7 wins so far while Myers has been worth 1.6. If anyone doesn’t see that those additional 2 wins, which predictably didn’t make a non-contender a contender, weren’t worth the cost then they must be stoned.
How are the Royals not a contender when they are, in fact, only a few games behind and have a chance, if slim, to get in?
They are 2 games back. The SoS might work against them and the predictors might not like them (Though I imagine that might be because earlier season results are depressing the projections of younger players?), but being 2 games back and having a shot, if small, of the playoffs in September is…well, being a contender!
The Indians do have a favorable schedule, but the 3-game stint versus the Royals could be key, and both Tampa and the O’s have hard times ahead. The Royals do have a notable nicity of facing Cleveland twice and possibly even the Rangers (If they keep dropping games it could be a 2-for-5 man race).
While the Royals are hardly favorites, they have even a 3.6/5% chance and are 2 games back. It may not have been the smart move long term…but the Royals are contending for a playoffs spot this year, so yes, they are a “contender”.
d2mart: Everyone assuming they can’t sign someone is familiar with the Royals. Like the Pirates did with at least two starters, they took on salary that nobody else was willing to take with Santana. That was essentially a free agent acquisition but it only happened because Santana had no choice but to come here.
Speaking of strawman arguments, the Liriano one is the ultimate. As you probably know, but leave out because it doesn’t suit your argument, he signed a two year deal for $13m, but had to take the one year low salary with option because not long after actually signing that deal he injured his hand punching a door. Surely you will reply that Mike Napoli could have helped the offense for the pittance that Boston paid without noting how he had much more money and years on the table before the hip problem was discovered.
@chuckb,
While I think WAR for position players is pretty useful, I just can’t bring myself to trust WAR for pitchers.
For instance:
Shaun Marcum (1-10, 5.29 ERA, 78.1 inn) is worth 1.2 WAR
Dillon Gee (11-10, 3.61, 179.2 inn) is worth 0.7 WAR
I’m a huge Mets fan, and I’ve seen both of them pitch quite a bit. I assure you that Marcum was not even CLOSE to worth as much as Gee. Gee has been excellent, especially since the All-Star break, yet WAR does not come close to reflecting that.
“if anybody thinks Shields has not made all the difference this year they are stoned.”
*ALL* the difference? Hyperbolic much?
It’s not as simple as saying Shields has been worth 3.7 WAR and Myers 1.6 so far this season. Francoeur was worth -0.9 WAR for the Royals before they cut him. If KC had kept Myers, he would likely been called up sooner and assumed nearly all of that playing time. He probably would have been worth about 1 WAR, rather than -0.9, given his production rate for the Rays. If you credit Myers with his playing time and assume that he produced as he has for the Rays, he would have amassed about 2.6 WAR already, as opposed to the -0.9 that Frenchy put up. That’s a net gain of 3.5 WAR, nearly the same as what Shields has done.
Plus, Dayton Moore could have used the money he is paying Shields and signed another pitcher. Maybe one not as good as Shields, but he wouldn’t have needed to be.
Who needs Wil Myers? They coulda signed Marlon Byrd!
It’s all done. Poor process, ok results, maybe a playoff birth. Or at least a play-in. I still consider that the playoffs.
It’s gonna be painful over the next few years, not having Myers, but I am sure the Royals fans are enjoying it for now while they can.
That’s an incredibly simplistic interpretation of what went down. Setting aside the flawed logic in thinking that Myers and Shields are a one-for-one exchange in value to the team, Myers has been worth 1.7 fWAR in 71 games for Tampa. In all likelihood, he’d have played 50 more games in Kansas City than he did in Tampa, as they’d have called him up as soon as the extra year of club control was taken care of but without concern for Super-Two, just like Hosmer. The extra playing time puts Myers at 2.9 fWAR on the season. Shields has been worth 4.0 fWAR. 1.1 fWAR is not hard to find.
Furthermore, Shields is getting paid $11.0MM this year after the trade bonus and the escalators. Add to that the fact that Wade Davis is making $2.8MM and was swapped out for another league-minimum player in Odorizzi, the Royals would have had an additional ~$13.0MM to spend on a free agent pitcher. It is not difficult to see how the Shields/Myers trade was worse in the short- and long-term.
I think Dave’s smarminess is mostly because of the friend factor, but I do feel FanGraphs has been too hard on the Royals this year. They might not, probably will not, make it…but they are very close to it, and it is hard to argue they at least had a shot at it when they are, what, 2.5 games back? I’ve got no love for Dayton Moore…but I think it is hard to argue they competed this year because they are in the hunt. (Even if, as the last team back, they’re unlikely…but I will admit, I hope. The Pirates AND Royals getting in the playoffs? The stuff of madness itself!)
Dave said in his chat earlier today straight up (Jonah Keri friend factor thus irrelevant) that the Royals had no chance of making the playoffs.
As someone above has already pointed out, if there’s one thing 2011 taught us, it’s to be very careful about making absolute statements about races being over.
I guess this is what I dislike about this post…the feeling that Dave is telling me that there is no way the Royals make the playoffs when we simply don’t know what will happen over the next few weeks. The numbers don’t say that, and it’s disingenuous to use the numbers in such a way where the inherent unknowability of the outcome is cast aside. We can talk odds, but odds don’t give us infallible predictions however long certain odds may be. Especially not in a race where six teams are all within 4.5 games of each other with 17 to play.
“2.7% isn’t 0%, but ‘very real’ seems to be a bit of an overstatement.”
How is this not the opposite of speaking in absolute terms? You might not like the odds. You might disagree with the projections and/or the model that produced them. But you can’t contend that this was an absolute statement. Further more, if a doctor told you that you have a 2.7% chance of survival, you may not wish to give up all hope, but you would probably be well advised to not buy green bananas.
Here’s a Q&A from Dave’s chat ( http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-chat-91113/ ) that took place yesterday (the same day he published this article):
That was the “absolute statement” I was referring to. So I guess maybe with this article he’s walking back the absolute statement he made in the chat?
Yes, the absolute statement was in the chat and not the post. Also, as of today the Royals have about a 5% chance of making the playoffs (up from 2.7%). Again, I don’t disagree with the thrust of Dave’s argument (the Royals, despite being only two games back of the WC, have much stiffer odds b/c of differences in strength of schedule). I just disagree with the overall cavalier, know-it-all tone fangraphs writers (particularly Dave) have taken towards the Royals 2013 season. I’ll mention again that I am not a Royals fan in the least, but I have picked up on a lot of snark towards the team, for obvious (DMGM) reasons. Hey, sometimes even teams with non-sabr GMs are luck and/or good (see: SF Giants). There is no reason to diminish the fact that the Royals are on the verge of having their best season in 25 years just b/c you hate how they are run.
This post is riddled with typos, Dave. “Here’s a list of remaining schedules.” Man, that kind of analysis just has to be fired out immediately with no proofreading!
In addition to opponents, we should also look at off days. I put together this list a couple weeks ago to see who had a lopsided home schedule, how heir season ends, and how many days off.
H-R (G) End Days Off
Detroit 24-18 (42) R-6 (MIN,MIA) 4
Oakland 23-19 (42) R-6 (LAA,SEA) 3
Baltimore 23-19 (42) H-6 (TOR,BOS) 3
Texas 22-19 (41) H-7 (LAA,HOU) 4
KC 20-23 (43) R-7 (SEA,CHA) 3
TB 20-23 (43) R-6 (NYY,TOR) 2
NYY 19-23 (42) R-3 (HOU) 4
Cleveland 18-23 (41) R-4 (MN) 4
So a few things to note. Tampa not only has been on the road, but over their last 43 games will have just 2 days off. Maddon was smart to punt that one game trip to KC because they had no days off for a couple weeks during that stretch.
While the Yankees end on the road and have more games on the road during their last 42 games, they are playing the Blue Jays a ton, who they have dominated this season. And I believe Houston is their only road series that is not eastern seaboard travel. Yes, they are used to time changes and long travel, but at this point in the season, that is an advantage. With four days off in their last 42 games, and a day off before they head to Houston for the last series, the Yankees should be in great shape to battle until the end.
And now to the Royals. As Dave noted, they end with a couple bad teams. But here’s the thing, they don’t have an off day before the Seattle game. That is a long flight even from Kansas City. It’s probably roughly the same back to Chicago from Seattle, but again, no off day in between.
Oh, but there’s more. James Shields pitched today, which I believe puts him on schedule to pitch his last game of the season against Chicago in game 161. If the Royals do pull off a miracle and go to the one game series, Shields will be pitching on two days rest.
So given how much they have working against them, would it be wise to give Shields just two more starts, and set up the rotation so that he can pitch the play-in game? I hesitate to even mention it, because if Ned Yost starts to ponder it there is no telling what craziness he’ll come up with. There should be a manager rater added to the playoff odds formula. For me, despite all the obstacles facing the Royals, Ned Yost out-managing Joe Maddon is the most improbable outcome of all.
If you made this list a couple of weeks ago, you should have posted it then. It’s worthless now.
I nonsarcastically appreciate you milking that marathon metaphor for every drop available in the metaphor udder.
“The old about baseball being a marathon and not a spring is true”
This is missing some things.
Like an Insane Clown Posse video.
This. I feel like I’m reading a post from Horse E-Books (https://twitter.com/Horse_ebooks).
Love ya Dave, but this post is filled with typos, missing words, and other errors to the point of making it incredibly difficult to read and comprehend. I know a twitter argument is practically breaking news these days, but it sure seems like this could have been delayed an hour or two for a peer check.
What would a post that was FILLED with MISSING words look like?
MAD LIBS TIME!
The old _____ about baseball being a marathon and not a ____ is true _____.
It had missing words and typos, but it was not hard to read and easy to comprehend.
I guess something is wrong with me bc I didn’t find this smarmy at all.
You must not be a Royals fan.
I wonder what those ‘predictive’ statistics would have said about the Rocks in 2007
I wonder what value pointing to one random outlier has in predicting likely future outcomes?
Dave: “You have almost no chance to win the lottery.”
Gyre: “Some lady in Pennsylvania won!”
I’m guessing they said the Rockies had a very low but plausible chance to go on a tear and make it to the WS.
So lets say the athletics, rangers, Yankees, Indians, rays, and royals all end up with the same record. Them what?
Much rejoicing from me.
Tie breakers come into play. The teams that are still tied then engage in as many play in games that are needed to determine a playoff entrant.
Battle royal, with three pre-selected players from a different team entering the ring every two minutes. The order in which the teams enter the ring is determined by either old school NBA draft-style ping pong balls, or drawing lots with Prof. Plum and Col. Mustard and all the rest.
The last team with a player in the ring is declared the winner.
Obviously.
I mean, did you even bother to look it up?! It’s clearly outlined in the tie-breaker rules!!
It looks like it’s just you and me, honey bunch.
Two teams enter, one team leaves.
7 because I forgot the orioles.
Bud Selig falls under custody of His Majesty’s Inquisition and is assigned a gruesome fate that makes a memorable a public statement about the intolerability of failure.
You also have to account for the dugout flatulence of Ned Yost, who compulsively eats spray cheeses when anxious.
Why don’t we just watch the games and see who wins? Watching baseball is kinda fun.
Because that would be way too easy.
The odds say that if this scenario was run 1,000 times, there would be 27 Royals teams that make the playoffs. That’s not very good odds when considering 1,000 teams.
But there is really no way to predict what this particular Royals team will do.
No, but choking is a good bet.
Who would have guessed that the Royals would be this year’s version of the Trout-Cabrera debate?
I’m thinking that the AL wild card will be like the NL, where both teams come out of the same division. NL Central and AL East.
that said, that Indians vs Royals series is pretty big if either stand any chance.
Note that if you just go by year-to-date stats, the Royals’ playoff chances jump to 15%, which is better than their coin-flip odds of 10%. The question is, why do the projections short-sell the Royals so much when we almost have a full season in the books?
Keeping in mind that, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Rays were ~95% likelihood to make the playoffs on August 24th. Now those odds are ~60%, which may even be a little high given their recent play. I recognize this is somewhat apples to oranges since we’re talking coolstandings here, but the MLB.com playoff odds tracker is nice and easy to follow.
Not a Royals fan, but Dave Cameron and his absolutes are the reason I am praying hard for the Royals to make the playoffs. There’s nobody on FanGraphs that I want to see proven wrong more.
Lol. You don’t understand percentages, do you? If the Royals made the playoffs and you said “NOW WHAT DAVE!” he would say something like, “Wow, they only had a 2.6% chance to make it at September 11, that was really unlikely.”
He said in a chat that, literally, the Royals WILL NOT MAKE the playoffs. Not “the Royals are unlikely to make the playoffs” Like it or not, Dave has picked sides on this one.
There is a 97+% chance that he’s right.
So basically this article is about how exactly one translates subjective phrasing of a potential event into firm odds. Exciting. If you ask me a 2.7% chance is indeed “very real” because the sheer number of baseball teams and baseball seasons means we’re going to see those long odds converted more often than never. It’s not too difficult to go back and find past, undeniably real instances of exactly this event occurring. The phrase would be unfit if the Royals were 1] As yet not mathematically eliminated but 2] had their odds reduced to a point that no team in recent memory had converted them to a playoffs spot.
Word
What are the odds of some form of a tie? I just really want to see about 4 straight days of elimination games.
That is sooooo wrong.
Really? I think it’d be awesome.
FWIW, Cool Standings has KC with a 15% chance at the playoffs with jibes more with my gut feeling. Whether they make it or not, I’m really happy for Royals fans that they get a “pennant” race to follow.