Have you seen Jhonny Level at all this year? I think he's become underrated among the glut of young SFG MiF. Was skeptical on him at SS but looked great this year and just hits everything
Brendan Gawlowski
Several times. He doesn't have the same defensive ability or upside as the younger guys, and at some point he needs to get a little more selective. But it'd be wild if there was prospect fatigue settling in here already, he's a good hitter with sneaky pop. Easy T100 guy.
leoneforthird
With the move into Cardinals org Tai Peetehas seemed to take a big step forward. What did he do differently this year and is he a top 100 candidate
Brendan Gawlowski
Repeating High-A was a good idea. There's still a lot of swing and miss, probably too much for realistic T100 consideration, but it's really encouraging that it didn't skyrocket after he was promoted to AA. And of course, there are more than 100 or 110 interesting prospects with everyday upside!
ADoctolero
How would you rank Flora, Bresnahan, Keyner, Marquez and Cayama within the Giants system?
Brendan Gawlowskiedited
Flora, Marquez, Keyner, Bresnahan, Cayama.
apeloton
Last week you wrote that Dax kilby looks like one of the best guys in the league – with guys like Walcott here, that was a bit of a wow moment for me. Reading too much into it, or has the last week been that for you too with kilby?
Brendan Gawlowski
He doesn't have the same kind of freaky, elite upside that Walcott does but he looks like a high-probability regular. Solid defender at short, really good feel to hit.
nuxie
Which would be a greater concern for a hitter-chase rate,in zone contact or contact vs 95mph+?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends; who do you have in mind?
kipsooth
If you're in AZ or have heard from others, how's Bonemer looking in the OF?
Brendan Gawlowskiedited
Raw. Not unexpected, most guys struggle in their initial exposure, particularly in center. It's not true in every case, but I think as a general matter you need to live with growing pains out there for at least a few dozen games before you have any idea if the guy has the instincts to play the outfield.
Alex Remington
With Josue De Paula set to potentially play a larger role for the Dodgers as they fight for their lives, is there anything that a prospect like him could show you in a short series like this that could meaningfully affect your view of his outlook?
Brendan Gawlowski
He could pull an Arozerena I guess. That's probably the best example of a guy playing himself into a significantly higher grade just based on postseason performance alone.
WonderWall
When you watch a player on defense, what are you looking for to say that this player can stick at the position?
Brendan Gawlowski
Depends where they are on the journey. If it's a teenager on the complex, speed/athleticism are big. You'd also like to see good hands/feel for the hop if it's an infield position, but reliability is a little less important at that stage. For a guy in Triple-A or the majors, the bar is higher, and you want to see him make plays that an average player at that position can handle.
drplantwrench
of the angels many holes on the major league roster, which one(s) do you think can be reasonably filled by their non existent farm? or will stan kroenke need to spend his way through everything
Brendan Gawlowski
I wouldn't say the farm is non existent, there are some dudes down there. They're kind of far away though, Rada could help in '27 but that's probably going to be a rough big league season regardless of what they do.
Bud Smith
Back in the day, John Sickels had a theory that prospects with boring names tend to get underrated a bit (Brad Miller was the example that I recall). Have you encountered anything like that?
Brendan Gawlowski
I appreciate the unique angle here but… no?
schwarber raleigh burns
Who's a more promising version of the Joey Gallo archetype: Spencer Jones or Lazaro Montes?
Brendan Gawlowski
They take different routes to a similar place. I'd maybe lean Jones but they're fairly close together on my personal pref.
apeloton
Sss in full effect, but davalan hasn’t been hitting much in the afl – any sense of what the balance is of that being due to focusing more on fielding/it’s the hardest competition he’s faced/just random?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's a handful of games.
millvillemeltdown
on the subject of defense: how much are the "instincts" actually coachable? i'm spoiled as a frisbee player because i have a large, slow object that has fairly observable and predictable flight patterns, but i learned to make reads pretty fast. i don't know how that translates to baseball, esp supremely gifted athletes who seem to struggle to track fly balls
Brendan Gawlowski
I think good instincts give you a higher baseline from which to start. Guys can/do get better at things like tracking a ball in the air or reading a hop on the ground, but some people have a lower ceiling than others.
ADoctolero
Would it be fair to say that no farm system has jumped further up the power rankings than the Giants in the last calendar year?
Brendan Gawlowski
They're up there. St. Louis has an argument too. Atlanta is coming from a lower spot on the rankings but that system's up a decent bit, too.
Solitaire
Would you want to be a scout back in the pre-draft, no tech, no advance knowledge era? When a scout might show up at a game not knowing who anyone was looking for diamonds in the rough? Or is knowing who and what to look for, getting to review video and radar and such make it more enjoyable?
Brendan Gawlowski
Positives and negatives to both environments. The old days probably a tiny bit more fun but travel logistics were brutal back then.
nuxie
Alexander frias’s numbers dropped post trade.any concerns?
Brendan Gawlowski
No.
Kyler Jesanis
Who are some of the biggest risers since mid season reports?
Brendan Gawlowski
Kilby and Flewelling for me personally. Bernal has probably played his way onto the T100.
Ice Cream Helmet
How deep into off-the-field stuff do teams investigate potential draft picks to make sure they guy isn't a knucklehead? Do they ever hire like PIs or psychologists to screen kids?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't know about a PI but teams do their homework.
epigene13
Have you gotten any looks at Angeibel Gomez in the AFL, and if so, what were your impressions?
I know we are looking at the "whole" player, but can't we take a minute to appreciate how good Josue De Paula must be to go from Double A to be in consideration to start on the Dodgers in the playoffs?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's very good.
schwarber raleigh burns
Have you done much youth scouting overseas? I'd imagine a lot of that is still low-tech wild west style. Or am I naive and do these teams know every 14 year old worth looking at?
Brendan Gawlowski
Zero personally. Some teams are more organized than others in Latin America but there's a limit to how deep into the future you can peer when you're evaluating a 14 year old. There are tons of guys, pitchers especially, who don't pop until late into their teen years.
toshi
If you were in charge of the Mariners, would you be comfortable with Young and Emerson at 2B and SS next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Young yes, Emerson I'd sure want to have a capable Plan B on hand.
Big Fan
Hello BG!
Brendan Gawlowski
Hello Big Fan
TheHeavy217
For the past several years one of the big talking points during the postseason has been how important it is for teams to have the ability to hit home runs. Yet Milwaukee, Cleveland and Tampa were 29th, 27th and 22nd respectively in that category. Not to mention they were right next to each other on the team ISO leaderboard (25th thru 27th). Why does this work for them? More specifically, how has Milwaukee been able to maintain the best OBP and nearly the best walk rate over the last couple seasons with so little power?
Brendan Gawlowski
Two slightly different things here. The home run factor in the postseason is magnified because there are fewer runs/baserunners in general, which means that homers have a disproportionate impact on run scoring relative to the regular season.
Brendan Gawlowski
To the question of how have teams who don't really hit homers are succeeding this postseason: There are still multiple ways to be successful and there's a lot of variance in a short series.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for Milwaukee: They have a lot of guys with really good approaches and hit tools. And, as Sam Miller said more eloquently than I'll paraphrase in one of his newsletters, there are some real benefits to being the team that hustles in an otherwise non-hustle league
Brendan Gawlowski
It's not that they get a ton of value in the aggregate out of infield groundballs but they squeeze more out of them than anybody else.
Jasperdog3329
Is S. Walcott on the major league roster and starting next spring? Timeline for J. Farmelo who has tools but has lost so much time to injuries?
Brendan Gawlowski
Walcott I'd be very surprised, for a couple reasons. He's blocked, for one, but also not ready. I spoke with a scout who made a persuasive case that he's the kind of player who could use a full year in Triple-A.
Brendan Gawlowski
Farmelo is another one who I don't think is on the fast track. Wouldn't be surprised if he needs most/all of '27 at Double-A. I think even an 85th-90th percentile season has him getting to Triple-A late in the summer.
Sonny L
After attending a lot of MiLB games at different levels I’m in awe of anyone who can ID an A ball player beyond ‘that guy is better than everyone here’ with any certainty that it means ‘he’ll play in the league’ or ‘he’s a star.’ What are markers at that level (hitter side) you found useful
Brendan Gawlowski
Nobody's good enough to tell you with certainty how many WAR a 20 year old in A ball is going to accrue in his career, but some blend of size/athleticism/tools/physical projection can usually tell you who's got a shot to be impactful.
mbushskbum
Did you have a chance to see Sam Horn, GDD? Does he have a future in MLB?
How concerned are you about Emerson going forward?
Brendan Gawlowski
I still think he's going to be a good player. But if I'm trying to contend next year, I don't think I'd plan on him as a "set it and forget it" SS from day one.
triplesandtea
Do you enjoy seeing a prospect attempt to make the knuckleballer conversion?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure. Tend to think more guys should play around with it.
longsuffering
Is there a guy in the Jays org that no-one is talking about? I was wondering if Ryan Sprock might be that guy.
Brendan Gawlowski
I've just about wrapped up Toronto's list. He'll be on there, likely as a 40 unless sources are all over the guy in a way I'm not anticipating.
Tommyfastball
When you look at a guy like Justin Gonzales, what are the things that you'd see to say "Wow, he's going elite" as opposed to "Let's see how this goes…"
Brendan Gawlowski
I'm more in the 'let's see how this goes' camp with him. He's got a lot going for him, and the power is clearly nuts. Odd swing, stiffer mover than most big prospects. It's not a slam dunk case where everything lines up.
wheelhouse
What’s the deal with George Lombard Jr.? Does he have to move off the position
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't have anticipate that. I think he can be above average at short, and I'm the low man here on his glove.
Michael
In your eyes, what happened with someone like Jasson Dominguez? Did pressure of being 'The Martian' get to him? Constant analysis of defensive miscues got to his head? Is there a post-prospect hype arc he could conceivably stumble upon? League average hitter in '25 with semi-regular at-bats…
Brendan Gawlowski
From what I can gather, there seems to have been a sizable gap between how baseball people evaluated him as a player — both publically and with teams — and how the public perceived his talent. Eric has a theory that the baseball card community is a factor here, particularly with players from the Yankees.
Brendan Gawlowski
And I can buy that.
Brendan Gawlowski
As a player, he projected as a regular but not a star. Guys like that fall short all the time.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for Dominguez himself, a second act as a 110-115 wRC+ player with shoddy defense in some kind of role — maybe more against righties than lefties? — wouldn't shock me.
apeloton
Emma Rodriguez and Mike Sirota have kinda similar offensive profiles and are the same age – does erod’s injury history explain the 2 grade gap between them? Something else I’m missing?
Brendan Gawlowski
It's a factor. The bigger thing is that it looks like Rodriguez will be vulnerable in a huge swath of the strike zone in a way that Sirota won't.
triplesandtea
Reverse of the Dominguez question – who is the player in recent memory that baseball folks were way, way higher on than the general fan public?
Brendan Gawlowski
This is one where different pockets will have different answers. The A's, for instance, were way higher on Esteury Ruiz… For scouts it'll often be toolsy guys with scary data… I really liked Spencer Jones the two times I saw him as a scout and was kind of oblivious to how he was a punchline online for all the strikeouts.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Hao-Yu Lee had a decent but not overwhelming rookie season. Is there another gear?
Brendan Gawlowski
I hope so, he's so fun to watch. He's limited enough defensively that I think "good reserve where you pick your spots/stretches to play him" is the reasonable projection.
Sonny L
Muni’s in zone fastball issues sure came out against Cleveland. Is this a case where over 162 enough pitchers will miss the hole and he punishes but in October better and more focused arms hammer that spot until he adjusts?
Brendan Gawlowski
Everybody suffers a little in the postseason as the competition gets tougher.
Brendan Gawlowski
But also, stuff happens in five games
Brendan Gawlowski
In five games from August 1 through August 6, he hit .136 /.208 /.182 with 12 K's and one double in 24 PA's.
Brendan Gawlowski
In five games from May 6 to May 12 he hit .111 /.238 /.278 with 12 strikeouts in 21 PA's against the mighty Angels/Mariners/Royals.
Andrew
Kellon Lindsay and Joendry Vargas are their stats inflated by the minor league hitting environment?
Brendan Gawlowski
Them and everybody else this year.
adbernardi
Much hope left for Carson Williams? Or is he an odd man out in Tampa?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think he's going to hit.
Big Fan
Any updated Braves news you haven't shared with us before? The trade deadline refresh was much appreciated, and there were slew of promotions after that.
Brendan Gawlowski
Nothing beyond what I published in the AZ notes. I suspect they'll go fairly early in the list cycle.
smoothio
What did Salas’ performance with the Padres do to his prospect ranking?
Brendan Gawlowski
Very little, more because he's already 10th on our board. Not much room for us to move him!
Tristan
Unless he morphs into a LF this offseason, Sean Keys seems awfully blocked in Toronto. But he's also look a lot like the kind of bat they could use, particularly with the power and patience profile. Could he be a serviceable outfielder with reps, pushing others to DH at bats? Or do the Jays look for a trade partner? They often deal with the Guardians, who sure don't seem inclined to use Bibee for much this postseason…
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think you're going to flip him for Tanner Bibee, if that's the question behind the question. You can find ways to get him in the game as a PH or at DH with occasional starts elsewhere. I think trying him in left and seeing how it looks is a reasonable idea. If he hits, they'll find a way to get the bat in there.
Tommyfastball
Are you taking an Amador victory lap?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, but glad he's a relevant player for COL again and cautiously optimistic that there's still a regular in there.
Brendan Gawlowski
You can never take a victory lap in this business.
Sonny L
If he’s not going to hit is Carson Williams the in-house all glove SS when Walls gets expensive?
Brendan Gawlowski
Could be, yeah.
Tommyfastball
You mentioned J. Gonz. was stiff. I've seen that critique for lots of guys. Have you ever seen someone get considerably less stiff? Like they went all yoga and loosened up their core?
Brendan Gawlowski
Usually goes the other way. There was a really good article 10 years ago or so about how Justin Verlander revived his career by limbering up, but that was more of a case where he'd let his flexibility atrophy a little bit rather than finding something brand new.
pdunes
How much of a leap do you expect Konkor Griffin to make next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
A pretty big one. I expect him to be very good next year.
crossedup
Were you able to look into some of the low lower Mariners starters like Jack Bowery?
Brendan Gawlowski
Thank you for your patience. Bowery/Easterly look like HM/35+ types. I like the strikes but they're succeeding by leaning on good execution of shapely but not particularly nasty secondaries. Never say never in this era but they don't strike me as especially projectable, either.
rdf8585
What do you make of what Vance Honeycutt did late in the season in AA and so far in the Arizona Fall League?
Brendan Gawlowski
I liked him more than I thought I was going to. Flawed hitter, still see a path to value as a good glove/danger bat off the bench even if he's pretty limited at the plate.
tmh198
Can Lazaro Montes become Murakami-lite (poor BA, acceptable OBP(.320's-.330's?), 35+ HRs?
Brendan Gawlowski
That's the projection right there.
tmh198
Does Anthony Eyanson have a chance to break camp in the rotation, or are we likely looking at May/Jun debut?
Brendan Gawlowski
~90/10 the latter.
Exile in St. Louis
Any thoughts on Nehomar Ochoa at the AFL? Classic big tool, big swing & miss profile the Dana Brown-led Astros fell for.
Brendan Gawlowski
Bench bat.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Who will emerge from the scrum to become the Cardinals' near- and long-term catcher?
Brendan Gawlowski
Reminds me of the situation the Jays were in about five years ago, lot of potential options, tough to go wrong. I've been a Bernal fan for a while, why stop now.
pdunes
Best baseball comp for Arch Manning?
Brendan Gawlowski
Jackson Holliday?
Chuck Berry
How badly has Winston Santos fallen in rankings this year :'(
Brendan Gawlowski
Sigh. From a valuation perspective, clearly a lot. We'll see how stubborn I'm feeling come the Rangers list.
tmh198
What's Kendry Chourio's upside?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sonny Gray.
Patrick Burke
What happened with Elmer Rodriguez this season? So you still see him being successful in the majors as he was in AAA?
Brendan Gawlowski
Very effective in AAA, major league cameos shone a bright light on his crudeness as a strike thrower. Still like him as a GB-generating SP prospect.
apeloton
Thanks for all the answers!
Brendan Gawlowski
And thank you for all the questions, always fun to hang out. Disappointed about the lack of enclave chat but like that we got to hit on a bunch of different teams/some players we don't often get to here. Let's do it again next eek.
I’m rolling out a bunch of notes from my recent trip to Arizona. Last week, I wrote about some of the top hitters in the Arizona Fall League, as well as a few backfields standouts for the Royals, Giants, and Padres. Today, we’ll dive into some of the pitchers from the AFL.
Susana has one of the strongest arms in professional baseball. The big righty sits 101-103, and generates it with a low-to-moderate effort delivery. For all its velo, Susana’s fastball doesn’t have bat-missing shape, and even the Fall Leaguers he faced were generally able to get the bat on the ball. His feel for release was off to start the game, and he frequently missed up early in the outing. Hitters couldn’t barrel it in the zone, though, and that will likely continue to be the case for Susana as long as he’s able to live anywhere near that velocity band.
Susana worked with two breaking balls. He used an occasional upper-80s slider, usually just as a way to get hitters off his primary secondary, a mid-80s sweeper. There aren’t a lot of guys who can get 15 inches of break on an 85-mph sweeper, but few pitchers have Susana’s arm talent. Read the rest of this entry »
I watched eight Arizona Fall League games over the last week, and today’s a good time to empty the notebook on some of the position players I saw. I’ve got a mix of updates on top prospects and notes on a couple off-the-radar names who impressed me. Let’s get to it, starting with perhaps the best player in the league.
Kilby looks great as a hitter. He’s quick and direct to the ball, he doesn’t leak early, his swing stays on plane forever, he adjusts well off the fastball, and he can use the whole field. He can seemingly get his hands everywhere, and the way he’s able to pull them in and turn around velocity is in a class with the Max Clarks and Kevin McGonigles of the world.
Kilby is also smooth and balanced at shortstop, rangy with a good internal clock. His throwing stroke looks pushy when he has time, but he can let it rip when he needs to get rid of the ball quickly. He looked like the best player on the field, and his stock surged for both Eric and me during my time in Arizona. Read the rest of this entry »
For four games, pitching chaos helped the South Siders reign. Armed with only one starter in his circle of trust, White Sox manager Will Venable leaned on his band of mostly young, mostly hard-throwing relievers. Who, and for how long, was dictated by circumstance. It worked early, as Chicago swept through Houston in the Wild Card Series and jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the ALDS against the Guardians. Venable pressed all the right buttons — the staff allowed just nine runs across those first four games — and deserves a ton of credit for getting a dozen pitchers to embrace such a novel strategy on the fly.
All along, we’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop. How long can the White Sox get away with throwing Grant Taylor multiple frames every outing? Will Hagen Smith finally pay for walking a batter per inning? What happens if Chicago needs an actual starter to eat a couple of innings?
The first cracks in the dam appeared Wednesday, when Chicago walked 10 and the Guardians exploded for nine runs. Water trickled through in the early innings of Thursday’s Game 4, too, and then burst through all at once as Cleveland, again facing elimination, defeated the White Sox, 9-5, to force a do-or-die Game 5 on Saturday. Read the rest of this entry »
I just finished an extended trip to watch instructs and the Arizona Fall League, and I’ve got enough in the notebook for a few posts. We’ll start with some of the looks I got at Royals, Giants, and Padres prospects on the backfields and, in a few cases, during the AFL as well. Let’s hop to it.
We’ll start with the guy people will ask about first. Gomez is a tapered 6-foot-2. While he isn’t a freaky athlete in the Elly De La Cruz mold, he’s limber and has a fast bat for a kid his age. Facing some of the best stuff of his life, his feel for hitting stood out. Gomez is athletic in the box, and he was able to fight off above-average velo on the hands, turn around 97 above the belt, and flatten the bat and hit a line drive on a hard fastball up, all while holding his own versus spin. He fouled off a couple tough sliders and took one just beneath the zone. He wasn’t perfect — he expanded the zone a few times and chased a curve in the dirt — but it was a really impressive showing in context.
Where does this go from here? To my eye, Gomez doesn’t look like an early-mature guy, but he also isn’t someone who screams “physical projection” in the way that, say, Sebastian Walcott did at his age. Gomez already has average measurable power, and while there’s room for him to grow into more, my projection leans closer to “comfortably plus” than “80.” Read the rest of this entry »
Saw him on the backfields, where he hit everything. Didn't get much of Surprise and he wasn't in the lineup there when I did. But he looks hitterish.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Does Henry Bolte have another gear beyond what he showed this season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't think so. He already hit for power than you'd think for someone with a 60%+ ground ball rate and a lot of strikeouts.
Resolution
Any insights on Jack O’Dowd’s ability to stick at catcher? Has been rougher so far but he’s still newish to the position
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't look good. Arm very light for it, couple pop times in the 2.15 range yesterday.
Kevin Kelsey
Jake Monroe a borderline top 100?
Brendan Gawlowski
No. Has barrel feel but that's the only tool. Fringy at third, oppo shooter with below average power.
riibett
Are you more of an Owen Carey or Connor Essenburg guy?
Brendan Gawlowski
Essenburg. I don't want to overreact to a few AFL games but Carey looked ordinary this past week.
Kevin Kelsey
Can Braxton Bragg get back to being a well regarded maybe mid rotation arm?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd take the under. Saw him last week, sat 92-94, breaking ball looked just okay.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Would you rather have Kevin Alvarez or Xavier Neyens out of the Astros' system?
Brendan Gawlowski
Alvarez. I'm not sure Neyens can hit.
Phil
Who goes from Worcester to Boston this winter/spring? Arias I should hope, but I'm wondering about the long-awaited Duran trade opening up a spot for Campbell. Are there other good fits?
Brendan Gawlowski
Red Sox list will be out fairly early in the cycle, which will presumably answer this in a lot of detail. Arias will be up early, possibly Opening Day depending on what Boston does this winter. As for Campbell, he's going to have to hit his way back into town.
rainingmozzarella
How has Demetrio Crisantes and Patrick Forbes looked so far, if you've had a chance to see them?
Brendan Gawlowski
Did not see Forbes; Crisantes was his usual self. Fast, good barrel feel. Better than a lot of the pitchers he'll face.
Charles Bengal Tiger
A follow-up on the Alvarez-Neyens question. Is Albert Fermin a comparable prospect to Alvarez?
Brendan Gawlowski
No.
rainingmozzarella
So since the Dbacks have a bloated payroll, bad farm system, and way too many holes, do you think it makes sense to trade either Perdomo or Moreno to get a bunch of pieces back?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sounds like payroll is about to go down, too. I don't think I would, with Burnes back and Pfaadt (perhaps) having turned a corner, I'd keep the core intact for another run.
rainingmozzarella
In an effort for the Dbacks to get more pitching depth, do you think Tommy Troy for Karson Milbrandt makes sense for both sides?
Brendan Gawlowski
If you were really confident that you could reliably get Millbrandt back into the strike zone, sure. But I don't know how you could be.
Churlayla
Rafe Perich. What's the fatal flaw?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't know if he has a fatal flaw, more that fringy defense and a power-over-hit skillset likely make him more of a supplementary fit than an everyday guy.
higginsford
What are the top 1 or 2 things you would focus on if you were hired as the A's GM?
Brendan Gawlowski
Figuring out what the altitudinal effects of the new park will look like and building a pitching plan around that from soup to nuts.
Cosmo
How likely is it that either Josuar or Walcott are the #1 prospect sometime next summer?
Brendan Gawlowski
Josuar's time in that airspace is more likely in 2028
ImKeithHernandez
Do the Mets have a #1, #3, and #5 in McLean, Scott, and Thornton?
Brendan Gawlowski
Good way to think of it. Maybe shorting Thornton a little bit.
Solitaire
When an athletic corner outfielder with well-above average sprint speed grades out well below average as a fielder, specifically from range, is the conclusion just "this guy takes bad routes because he misreads the ball?" Can you teach that? This question is about Dylan Beavers, but I feel like I see it often
Brendan Gawlowski
That can be part of it. First step/acceleration comes into play too. This can get better with time and reps but some guys just have better instincts and reads than others.
Churlayla
Thanks for taking our queries!
Brendan Gawlowski
You're welcome. I may have screwed something up in how I scheduled this, there aren't many folks in here today relative to most weeks. So, uh, good odds if you have a question…
higginsford
Do you think Jefferson Rojas and Brayden Taylor contribute at the MLB level next year? Have them in an Ottoneu league
Brendan Gawlowski
Fantasy is a little out of my realm but my instinct is that neither should be lynchpins of your 2027 plans.
Churlayla
Max Anderson breaks camp at the keystone in Detroit?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would guess not. Re-signing Gleyber would make sense for them, but even if they keep it internal, I'd prioritize getting Lee in the lineup first.
crossedup
Where are we at on Tai Peete? Stat wise it seems like he took a step forward with some help of a near .400 babip; was there any notable change to his set up or swing at the plate to go with it?
Brendan Gawlowski
Spin has been the big issue with him. It still is but perhaps to a slightly lesser degree. This is a guy to stay patient with, if he hits, he'll hit big. Prospects move so quickly these days, he's one I'd continue to push slowly.
viceroy
Names to watch in Fall and winter leagues? Maybe prospects who were hyped and then hurt and these will be the first looks at them in a minute
Brendan Gawlowski
I'll have notes on a lot of these guys in the coming days but… Lot of pitchers match that description… Kannon Kemp, Braxton Bragg, Jake Bloss… I liked R.J. Sales yesterday, too. Among the hitters, Dax Kilby blew me away, Wyatt Sanford and Nathan Hall are really interesting. Tai Peete and Braylon Payne are fun/toolsy. Alex McCoy may hit one to Mars.
tdmoc
Any chance you'll be at tomorrow's Peoria/Glendale game? Curious about Patrick Reilly 50+ innings into his TJS return.
Brendan Gawlowski
Back home, unfortunately. Perhaps Eric will be at the game…
viceroy
Why didn’t Max Anderson get a shot down the stretch? Is the glove work an issue? Are they skeptical of the approach even though it’s worked so far? Issues against heat/spin?
Brendan Gawlowski
I don't see him as an impact guy.
Bud Smith
Get a chance to see Susana?
Brendan Gawlowski
I did. Sat 101-103, low effort, which is a real thing I just typed. Pairs it with a low-mid 80s sweeper mostly, threw a couple harder breaking balls. He'll be high on the T100.
oaktownblues
Should the A's stretch Luis Medina back out to be a starter? Or keep in him in the pen now that he's had some success?
Brendan Gawlowski
Bullpen, I don't think he has the command to start, and the fastball plays down from the number.
crossedup
What's the off-season scheduling look like? Odds and ends from the AFL and planning for the Top prospect lists?
Brendan Gawlowski
I'll have a bunch of notes in the next week, they're long enough that we're planning to publish a few posts to stagger them. From there, Eric is working furiously on Asian players, we'll need to prepare a 2027 draft board, and of course lists, lists, lists. I'm 98.54% done with one list and 89.14% done with a second.
Brendan Gawlowski
I'd also like to write a follow up to the pro scouting piece that ran at the end of September.
higginsford
I know y'all got a lot on your plate but around when do you think an initial list will go on THE BOARD for the 2027 draft?
Brendan Gawlowski
Eric and I talked about this when I was down in Phoenix. Before the start of the college season, late January or early February would be my guess.
Churlayla
Franklin Primera. Get excited or he just overpowered the level?
Brendan Gawlowski
Little of both. Expecting him to be a 45+ this winter. Sneak peak on the conclusion: "While the hit tool is really exciting, Primera is not especially projectable, and we want to see how his swing and approach hold up against better pitching before we dive in with both feet. He’s the kind of player where, were I still scouting for a team, I’d write him up as an everyday player without hesitation, but from a valuation perspective, we think it behooves us to stay patient for a little while longer. "
CherryTomato
First full healthy season from Farmelo. Anything unexpected from his performance?
Brendan Gawlowski
Not really, was worried that the injuries might've taken a bite out of his speed, but fortunately that wasn't the case. Otherwise, showed the talent and the swing and miss you'd expect with his long swing. We'll see if better pitching forces an adjustment soon.
Solitaire
I get the impression that high/low effort on velocity is treated as quite important/valuable but I'm not sure I've seen analysis confirming that. I've seen HOF starters who look like they're max efforting all the time and I've seen middle reliever Andrew Kittredge casually throw 96 like he's in the backyard. Curious your thoughts. Does looking like you're not trying actually mean it's easy? Are our monkey brains just stuck on facial expressions as important identifiers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot to unpack here. I generally but not always like lower effort because, in my experience at least, it correlates with better strike throwing and health. It's certainly not a 1:1 relationship with either. I don't recall where I read it, but Scherzer had a really insightful perspective on this, and on how he's been able to stay healthy even though he's a high effort guy because he's so strong and coordinated that he's able to pitch without over-stressing his arm.
Brendan Gawlowski
For most of the non-freak athletes, it's really hard to put the ball where you want if you're trying to throw it as hard as you can.
Charles Bengal Tiger
What would an 80th percentile outcome on Logan Hughes look like?
Brendan Gawlowski
Late career Joc with smoother peaks and valleys.
niall
Among baseball writers, I've noticed that there's a lot of mention around IP as the proxy to measure SP workload in the minors and majors. I started thinking about this after noticing Brody Hopkins and Kendry Chourio pitched a similar number of innings despite Hopkins facing about 100 more batters (very different types of pitcher, obviously). Do you get the sense teams/scouts are using this proxy or is this more of a shorthand where they're measuring something else to get at the "load" on pitchers?
Brendan Gawlowski
Shorthand. Teams have other ways to more precisely measure workload/stress.
Churlayla
What's for lunch?
Brendan Gawlowski
Man, I just had breakfast, why so ambitious?
crossedup
Following up from last chat; were you able to take a look at the Mariners lower minor starters? I know you were a bit interested in Bowery but there was also Reid Easterly and Scott Rouse. I know you were in AFL so not sure if you had a chance to look.
Brendan Gawlowski
Sorry, next chat I got you.
Haste11
Does Ralphy V win the starting 1B job in Cleveland on Opening Day? It feels like he doesn't have anything left to prove in AAA
Brendan Gawlowski
Lot of variables, new CBA might have something to say about this. You will see him soon, whether it's Opening Day or not is subject to factors outside of his control/performance.
Brendan Gawlowski
On talent, he could do it.
Fangraphs Man
Has Hagen Smith showed anything in his cup of coffee that makes you think he’s more likely to be a starter long term?
Brendan Gawlowski
No, strengths — awesome stuff — and weaknesses — below average control — in his game have long been apparent and we're seeing them these playoffs.
Churlayla
Ethan Anderson is the #2 C behind Basallo by August 2027?
Brendan Gawlowski
I think Anderson and Willems both are better fits as third catchers than traditional backups. Particularly with Basallo around, who you may not want to catch everyday anyway, I think BAL would prefer to have a better defender as the backup. But that's speculation.
Samuel Clemens
What does Tyler Bremner need to work on to keep moving up and be an effective SP with the Angels,
Brendan Gawlowski
Needs a better breaking ball.
scottsjunk1981
Any new rumors about whether and when there will be an R5 draft? Have you heard of any teams drawing a meaningfully different line than in most seasons?
Brendan Gawlowski
Haven't done any true reporting on this, but the scouts I sat with weren't optimistic.
Churlayla
Caden Bodine is catching MLB games by June?
Brendan Gawlowski
Sure, why not.
GB
Any plans to add a scouting report to Yostin Pena?
Brendan Gawlowski
Yes he'll get an extended writeup when we do NYY. I suspect they'll be fairly early in the list cycle.
wheelhouse
I’ve read that the yankees’ terrible fundamentals permeate their whole system down through the minors. Is that what you’ve seen, and how long would it take to address? Years?
Brendan Gawlowski
It does, they're really sloppy. In theory it could be a fairly quick fix.
jazzrunner12
Do the Tigers give Valencia 400 at bats next year? That was quite an impressive debut but he's 26 not 23. Also, do the Angels let Nelson Rada take over CF for most of the year?
Brendan Gawlowski
He's a tricky one to plan around, because the approach is aggressive/exploitable and you don't want to go into the year with him as a starter and have no Plan B. At the same time, he can be both really flawed and a lot worse next year… and still be a guy you want to give 500+ PA's anyway. So, yes, tentatively.
Brendan Gawlowski
As for the second question, this depends as much on how they want to man-manage Trout as it does on Rada's talent. I suspect, one way or the other, he'll play out there plenty. You might have to wait a bit for him to be the everyday guy.
wheelhouse
What do you attribute it to? Is it a question of the players they acquire or a lack of coaching emphasis? It’s bizarre to me that it’s such a glaring embarrassment on their big league squad and they’ve never done anything to correct it in their system
Brendan Gawlowski
This is a follow up to the Yankees question… Probably a little bit of both? It's not like any of the players or coaches want to see errors or whatnot. But, clearly there's an apparatus where both the acquisition groups and the coaching/dev staffs are willing to live with it if the guy can otherwise play.
canderson20
Do you have any insight on how teams decide who is going to play in the AFL? Thinking of a guy like Braden Nett who could seemingly use some extra innings due to time on IL this year compared to Kenya Huggins who had mostly a full season.
Brendan Gawlowski
Varies from team to team. Some see it as a valuable place to get innings/extra AB's, others couldn't care less and send a bunch of orgs to fill out a roster.
Brendan Gawlowski
I will say: If I was a player, I don't know if I'd want to go to the AFL. The atmosphere in the park is lethargic, the competition is just okay, a lot of the players/coaches don't want to be there, some of the rule experiments might be frustrating… It's not for everybody.
rainingmozzarella
Any idea why Milbrandt had issues throwing strikes in AAA? 64.4% strike rate in AA down to 57.4% in AAA. That's a huge decline. Was it issues getting acclimated to the different ball?
Brendan Gawlowski
I would just be speculating. The ball is a common issue for guys jumping to AAA. Both because they're developing feel for it but also because some guys don't get nearly the same movement and batters don't chase to the same degree.
Phil
There was a funny question in the Red Sox post mortem press conference–a reporter asked Craig Breslow if he would draft Craig Breslow (I think the implication would be that, as an analytics/Driveline guy, he only cares about velocity and spin). Breslow averred that he would–that he would recognize himself as someone with the ability to induce weak contact, regardless of the approach. But Breslow was drafted in teh 26th round (which I don't think still exists?)–how would, in fact, a guy like that, an ivy league LOOGY type with unimpressive velo. fare today? Would anyone draft Craig Breslow?
Brendan Gawlowski
With the caveat that I have only the vaguest feel for what Breslow's game looked like in college… He probably had some kind of standout or outlier trait, whether it was command, deception, changeup quality, I don't know. With his arm strength, it's hard to imagine he'd have been selected early, and while he might've been someone that would get taken in the 12th or 18th round today, it's possible he wouldn't be selected at all. Obviously, I think, the shorter draft and quicker development trajectory are filtering out guys who would develop into big leaguers in another context.
philly
Would be curious to hear any AFL thoughts on Flewelling. I thought it odd Tampa would send a young catcher coming off a full season.
Brendan Gawlowski
He looked good, only saw him play one game, but liked the approach and swing. Personally, I'd take him over Bodine.
Charles Bengal Tiger
Brock Wilken. Is there still hope?
Brendan Gawlowski
Maybe as a bench bat.
scottsjunk1981
What's your take on players who far exceed expectations in their rookie seasons and then fall back to being replacement-ish? Did the league adjust? Did they just start on a favorable part of the random walk? As a Nats fan, I'm specifically looking at Parker and Irvin and worrying about Alvarez.
Brendan Gawlowski
Sometimes the league adjusts, sometimes guys are able to execute their stuff for a stretch in a way that they can't over the long haul.
Churlayla
Bold prediction: Boston fans throw something/one in the harbor if Arias isn't at the 6 on day one.
Brendan Gawlowski
Every fanbase has its overreactors…
vottogoat
Any thoughts from Michael Arroyo's cup of coffee in the majors this year? Chance to be a regular next year?
Brendan Gawlowski
Didn't play much, unfortunately, bizarre that the M's gave Weston Wilson so many AB's down the stretch. When he did play, he kept on doing the same things he's always done…
Churlayla
Do you have prospects you can't contain your excitement about or has your career taught you to stay relatively 'flat' and wait for things to play out thru the minors?
Brendan Gawlowski
I enjoy the journey.
canderson20
Cardinals brass reported they're going to have Rainiel start working 3b into the mix for him this offseason. If he takes to the position, would it move him up or down the rankings?
Brendan Gawlowski
Steady.
tdmoc
Any big takeaways from your first (nearly) full year working here?
Brendan Gawlowski
Nothing earth shattering. There are a lot of people within the game who read this stuff… I like being able to cover the game globally and write things like the Brandon Valenzuela re-eval and (especially) the pro scouting piece…
OranguTongs
Anyone down in Arizona who looks like the next Jonah Tong?
Brendan Gawlowski
GDI.
Churlayla
Joseph Dzwiera is in the BAL rotation by mid-season?
Brendan Gawlowski
I suspect he'll get a look by that point, at least…
Churlayla
Nelson Rada? Raudi Rodriguez is the stud and he'll come off the top rope to remind you if need be! Lol
Brendan Gawlowski
– glances at Angels Roster Resource – There's… room for both of them.
Brendan Gawlowski
Think I'm going to shut it down here today. Thanks as always for stopping by, I'll be back in the normal Tuesday window again next week. Enjoy the postseason and see you soon.
On Wednesday night, the San Diego Padres eliminated the Chicago Cubs from the playoffs with a 4-1 win. A sold-out, frenzied crowd watched the Friars get to Kevin Gausman early, scoring two runs in the second after a double from Ty France, singles from Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts, and a sacrifice fly from Ethan Salas. A two-run homer from pinch-hitter Gavin Sheets in the fourth put San Diego up by three, and from there, the Cubs barely threatened. It was just the latest big moment in a summer full of them for the Padres: A team that saw its playoff odds drop to 7% in late July will now head to Milwaukee for the NLDS.
When you think about this generation of the San Diego Padres, a number of descriptors may spring to mind. “Exciting” works, for all the stars they’ve rostered and playoff runs they’ve made. “Unpredictable” captures the spirit of a front office bold enough to empty the farm year after year, postseason probability be damned. “Competitive” — you heard all those F-bombs during the game last night, yes? — applies, as might “brash,” particularly if you’re from Los Angeles or Phoenix.
But watching this game, I kept thinking about how poised they looked. It’s an unfamiliar feeling watching this group: Fernando Tatis Jr. is many wonderful things, but there’s very little mellow to him or the team he headlines. In an emotional game, though, which is exactly how they looked, and nobody epitomized that more than San Diego’s young catcher. Read the rest of this entry »
While I was on vacation last month, the Miami Marlins axed their pro scouting department. They’re just the latest team to do so: Per recent reporting from Yahoo Sports’ Jake Mintz, four teams have no pro scouts and another five have four or fewer on staff, though the Nats are hiring, and as Jake notes, exact roles and titles can vary team to team.
I should be up front about my perspective: I worked as a pro scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates for four years. It was a great experience and I saw firsthand how scouts can add value to a front office, even one with strong analytical chops. While it’s gutting any time friends or former colleagues lose their jobs, I’m both frustrated and baffled when orgs choose to cut, or severely curtail, their entire department. For mediocre middle reliever money, clubs can have a team of expert player evaluators provide information that statistical and acquisition models can’t produce, and challenge some of the conclusions they can. In an era where teams increasingly rely on (similar) data to build their models and evaluate talent, scouting should be more important, not less.
Given the state of the pro scouting landscape, that’s clearly not an intuitive conclusion. In part, that’s because the scouting profession doesn’t look the same as it did 20 years ago: Statcast, TrackMan, and other tools have reshaped the role and, in some places, taken a bit of the guesswork out of the job. Some scouts still primarily evaluate in the park but many others primarily scout on video, much like Eric and I do here at FanGraphs. As with the radar gun a generation ago, in my view, these tools are both helpful for scouts and not nearly sufficient to replace them. While modern scouts must be more data literate than their forebears, sharp eyes and sound information-gathering skills remain the most critical tools of the trade. Holistic evaluation is the best way to analyze players, and scouts who can blend analytical fluency with strong visual evaluations are worth their weight in gold. Even in a world with robust data, it’s immensely valuable to have scouts who can project which players will under- or over-perform their statistical projections. To help bolster that conviction, let’s look at some of the specific ways scouts help big league clubs. Read the rest of this entry »
Brendan Gawlowski: Housekeeping notes: I don’t think I’ll be able to chat next week, at least not at the usual time, because I’ll be in AZ watching instructs.
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m hoping I’ll have a couple pieces up by then. In particular, I’m working on something with a rough working title of ‘How to scout in the age of the model’ that I’m excited about
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I may also have a “wait, what?” or “because you asked”
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: For now, let’s get to it
2:02
darrenasu: Where does Bryce Eldridge fit among the rookie of the year candidates this year? Who would you take ahead of him if you could draft from all rookies that debuted this year?
Brendan Gawlowski: Hey everybody, I screwed up the start time on the Jotcast platform. We’ll start at 11 PST as usual.
2:00
Brendan Gawlowski: Alrighty, hello everybody. Let’s get going.
2:00
oaktownblues: Drew Burress is having a great pro debut overall, but should I be worried about the sub-70% contact rate? Does he have the juice to succeed as a low contact guy?
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I wouldn’t worry too much about the late-season cameo peripherals. Burress stopped playing for a couple months, got paid a ton of money, moved across the country, and started swinging a new type of bat. He struck out more than I’d have guessed but that’s a lot of change in a short amount of time, too many variables to make a huge adjustment to the forecast just yet.
2:03
Bacterun: With Josue de Paula having yet to strikeout in his first 4 MLB games, who is the prospect with the best plate discipline you have every scouted?
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