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2024 Positional Power Rankings: Summary

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Over the past week and a half, we’ve published our annual season preview, ranking the league’s players by position and team based on a blend of our projections (a 50/50 split between ZiPS and Steamer) and our manually maintained RosterResource playing time estimates courtesy of Jason Martinez. If you happen to have missed any of those installments, you can use the navigation widget above to catch up.

Today, I’m going to summarize the results. We’ll look at some tables and pick out a few interesting tidbits in a moment, but first, it’s important to remember that this exercise captures a snapshot of how we project teams to perform now. Teams aren’t static. Since we began publishing our rankings, Wyatt Langford, our no. 2 overall prospect, officially made the Rangers’ Opening Day roster, while Jackson Holliday, our no. 1 overall prospect, learned he’d be starting his season at Triple-A Norfolk. Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson suffered a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder during a collision with teammate Jordan Walker. He’ll start the season on the IL, paving the way for speedster (and no. 83 overall prospect) Victor Scott II to debut. And mere hours after our starting pitching rankings went live, Jordan Montgomery signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks, pushing them from 13th all the way up to fourth. Heck, while I was writing this summary, news broke that Reds infielder Matt McLain underwent shoulder surgery, putting his season in jeopardy. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 Positional Power Rankings: Introduction

Ronald Acuña Jr.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the 2024 positional power rankings! As is tradition, over the next week and a half, we’ll be ranking every team by position as we inch closer to Opening Day next Thursday. This is always something of a funny exercise. You read FanGraphs regularly, after all — a fact for which we are very grateful — and are well-versed in the various signings and trades that occurred over the offseason. You know that Shohei Ohtani is now a Dodger, just as you’re aware that Juan Soto is a Yankee and Dylan Cease a very recent Padre. And yet, you’re still keen to know more about the game and what it might look like between now and October. The positional power rankings are our answer to that impulse.

This post serves as an explainer for our approach to the rankings. If you’re new to the exercise, I hope it helps to clarify how they are compiled and what you might expect from them. If you’re a FanGraphs stalwart, I hope it is a useful reminder of what we’re up to. If you have a bit of time, you’ll find the introduction to last year’s series here. You can use the navigation widget at the top of that post to get a sense of where things stood before Opening Day 2023, a spring that saw a host of rule changes take the league by storm.

Unlike a lot of sites’ season previews, we don’t arrange ours by team or division. That is a perfectly good way to organize a season preview, but we see a few advantages to the way we do it. First, ranking teams by position allows us to cover a team’s roster from top to bottom. Stars, everyday contributors, and role players alike receive some amount of examination, and those players (and the teams they play for) are placed in their proper league-wide context. By doing it this way, you can more easily see how teams stack up against each other, get a sense of the overall strength of a position across baseball, and spot places where a well-constructed platoon may end up having a bigger impact than an everyday regular who is good rather than great. We think all of that context helps to create a richer understanding of the state of the game and a clearer picture of the season ahead. Read the rest of this entry »


2024 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards: Voting Now Open!

2024 SABR Analytics Conference

Here’s your chance to vote for the 2024 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards winners.

The SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards will recognize baseball researchers who have completed the best work of original analysis or commentary during the preceding calendar year. Nominations were solicited by representatives from SABR, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America, and Sports Info Solutions.

To read any of the finalists, click on the link below. Scroll down to cast your vote.

Contemporary Baseball Analysis

Contemporary Baseball Commentary

Historical Baseball Analysis/Commentary

John Dewan Defensive Analytics Award

Voting will be open through 11:59 p.m. MST on Friday, February 9, 2024.

Mobile or Safari users, click here to access the survey

Results will be announced and presented at the SABR Analytics Conference, March 8-10, 2024, in Phoenix, Arizona. Learn more or register for the conference at SABR.org/analytics.


Contract Crowdsourcing 2023-24: Ballot 11 of 11

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six potential free agents and Lance Lynn; the Dodgers declined his $18 million club option earlier today. This group includes players with a mix of options or opt-outs. Realistically, not all of these guys will hit the open market. But what if they do? Won’t you be glad to have guessed their new contracts? Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2023-24: Ballot 10 of 11

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six potential free agents and Whit Merrifield; both he and the Blue Jays declined their side of a mutual option yesterday. This group includes players with a mix of options or opt-outs. Realistically, not all of these guys will hit the open market. But what if they do? Won’t you be glad to have guessed their new contracts? Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2023-24: Ballot 9 of 11

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of relievers. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2023-24: Ballot 8 of 11

Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for nine of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of starting pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2023-24: Ballot 7 of 11

Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer/USA TODAY NETWORK

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for eight of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of starting pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2023-24: Ballot 6 of 11

Joe Rondone/The Republic/USA TODAY NETWORK

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2024 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for eight of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of starting pitchers. Read the rest of this entry »


Contract Crowdsourcing 2023-24: Ballot 5 of 11

Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2023-24 free agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent.

Below are ballots for four of this year’s free agents — in this case, an exciting group of player who have previously played in NPB and the KBO. Read the rest of this entry »