Injury and Early Struggles Have Delayed Wyatt Langford’s Breakout
At 21-16, the Texas Rangers are first in the AL West standings, but it hasn’t been an easy stroll so far. They have an entire rotation of quality starting pitchers on the injured list, and while their offense has remained relatively intact, it has not yet been at full strength. Third baseman Josh Jung had wrist surgery in early April, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe missed the first three weeks of the season with a sore oblique, and shortstop Corey Seager has started slow after a sports hernia surgery in January kept him out for most of spring training. And on Monday, rookie Wyatt Langford, a first-round pick last June who rocketed to the majors to start this season, landed on the IL with a right hamstring strain, retroactive to Sunday. He’s expected to miss three to four weeks, which should keep him out until the end of the month.
Rangers will place Wyatt Langford on IL with a hamstring strain, slightly more severe than Grade 1, Bruce Bochy says. It will be 3-4 week absence
— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) May 5, 2024
Langford started Saturday’s game, a 15-4 win over the Royals, in left field but was removed in the fifth inning with what was initially diagnosed as hamstring tightness; an MRI later revealed the strain. Texas called up infielder Jonathan Ornelas from Triple-A Round Rock to fill out the 26-man roster.
Mired in a 1-for-15 slump following his first major league homer, an inside-the-parker on April 28, Langford has a brutal 68 wRC+ over his first 31 big league games. Things were bad enough that it was fair to wonder if the Rangers would temporarily send him to the minors to work things out — as the Orioles did recently with Jackson Holliday — but despite Langford’s woes, Texas doesn’t exactly have a better option than him for its lineup.
The Rangers offense is so thin that when Lowe missed the start of the season, the best player they could replace him with at first base was Jared Walsh, last seen hitting .125/.216/.279 for the Angels in 39 games in 2023. Before Ornelas was called up, the Rangers had only three hitters in the organization who were on the 40-man roster and not in the majors; Ornelas, catcher Sam Huff, and outfielder Dustin Harris, who currently sports a 79 wRC+ with Round Rock. Realistically, Langford was the team’s only viable option at DH.
That said, he definitely deserved his place in the Opening Day lineup. Langford was an advanced college hitter when the Rangers drafted him, probably doing so with the expectation that it wouldn’t be long before he reached the majors. He spent just three games at Rookie Ball last year, climbed to Double-A a month later, and after another two weeks, he finished the season at Round Rock. His .349/.479/.657 line across four levels of the minors comes out to a spicy 199 wRC+, basically meaning that Langford did as much damage to minor league pitchers last year as Mookie Betts is inflicting upon major leaguers so far this season. Hitting .365/.423/.714 in spring training did nothing to dissuade the Rangers of the notion that he was ready to play in the majors less than a year out of college.
Nor were the Rangers alone — 16 of the 25 FanGraphs staffers and contributors who made preseason picks predicted that Langford would win the AL Rookie of the Year, myself included. Those of us of fleshy construct were joined by the computers; entering the season, ZiPS projected him to post a 118 wRC+ this year, and Steamer was more bullish, at 125. Even the biggest Langford skeptic around, THE BAT overestimated him with its 92 wRC+ forecast. The betting world was in on him as well, with most books giving Langford the third-best preseason odds to win the ROY, behind teammate Evan Carter and Holliday.
Despite all this doom and gloom, there are some positive nuggets buried within Langford’s rough start. His plate discipline has remained intact; he was still better than league average at not chasing, making contact, and getting to 1-0 counts. His hard-hit percentage (38.6%) is a close enough neighbor to league average (44th percentile) that it could be borrowing its lawn mower. And although his .388 xSLG, per Statcast, is a number that would thrill few players other than Nick Madrigal, it is a huge leap from Langford’s actual mark of .293.
Running the xStats equivalent in ZiPS (zStats), you get an estimated line of .237/.326/.378 with four homers from his Statcast, plate discipline, pull/spray, and speed data. That is hardly good, but it looks like merely mediocre rather than disastrous.
What effect does his sluggish start have on his long-term outlook? I fired up the full ZiPS model to get an idea about how his 2024 so far has impacted his projections for the next six seasons.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | .265 | .332 | .472 | 585 | 87 | 155 | 36 | 5 | 25 | 99 | 54 | 126 | 17 | 120 | 3 | 2.7 |
| 2026 | .270 | .340 | .488 | 588 | 91 | 159 | 37 | 5 | 27 | 103 | 57 | 123 | 16 | 126 | 3 | 3.1 |
| 2027 | .268 | .340 | .486 | 586 | 92 | 157 | 36 | 4 | 28 | 104 | 59 | 118 | 15 | 126 | 3 | 3.0 |
| 2028 | .269 | .343 | .493 | 584 | 94 | 157 | 36 | 4 | 29 | 104 | 61 | 115 | 14 | 129 | 3 | 3.2 |
| 2029 | .268 | .345 | .488 | 582 | 93 | 156 | 36 | 4 | 28 | 103 | 63 | 113 | 13 | 128 | 2 | 3.1 |
| 2030 | .267 | .345 | .484 | 581 | 94 | 155 | 36 | 3 | 28 | 102 | 64 | 111 | 12 | 127 | 2 | 3.1 |
Those projections are a good bit lower than his preseason ones, which had his WAR from 2025 to 2027 at 3.5, 3.8, and 3.6, respectively. This is unsurprising; Langford’s professional stats history was far shorter than most players and ZiPS had to use the much less accurate college translations as part of his projections, so these were always going to be more sensitive to 2024 play than they would’ve been for other major leaguers. Even so, Langford still projects as a solidly above-average bat who ought to be a long-term fixture in the Rangers’ lineup.
Langford’s breakout has been delayed by his struggles and now his injury, but his day is still coming. That’s encouraging for him, and it certainly bodes well for a Rangers offense that sure could use him.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I know you explained why, but I still find it surprising that a few weeks of bad baseball would have such a material impact on future outlook.
Makes me wonder about ZiPS’ current opinion on fellow hamstring injury enthusiast Steven Kwan. To what extent has his outlook improved given his start?
Langford’s 129 PA are 100% of his MLB data and 37% of his total pro data. So 37% of his pro plate appearances are with a .293 slg%. So yeah the start is going to have a decent impact on any projections. Kwan’s 2024 plate appearances are less than 6% of his pro PA, so it is not going to impact Kwan’s future projections much at all.
Right, and there’s the challenge that projections don’t provide us with confidence intervals. Langford also has a large range of outcomes because there is limited data.
I completely buy this as the reason for the changed projection, and it should make me worried as well. But I just can’t get worried about him, no matter how logical it seems. It’s pretty clear he’s still adjusting to major league stuff. Most players adjust slowly and move through the minors at a slower rate–Dylan Crews is still at AA, and he was seen as a comparable hitting talent by most. And if Langford has been playing hurt then that provides an easy explanation for the struggles. I’m still bullish on him long-term.
Exactly. Where can I bet cold hard cash on the over for 3.2 WAR as Langford’s peak WAR in the next six seasons? I just don’t see that happening. Either he’s a 5-plus win player or he’s a complete bust/injury casualty.
We as fans have been pretty spoiled over the past 5-10 years with young players coming up and dominating that when we see a highly-touted prospect actually struggle, it sets off alarm bells. I’m about as worried about Langford as I am Acuna this year.
Ah, but that’s the peak average expectation, not the peak result!
Okay, I’ll reframe my statement.
Where can I bet the over on 18 WAR for Langford’s next six seasons (the sum of the averages shown above for 2025-2030)?
Langford and Holliday are not the only highly anticipated youngsters struggling to handle MLB pitching early on. N Schanuel, C Keith, C Rafaela, B Rocchio, S. Frelick, O Cruz, J Chourio, C Mead, A Wells, V Scott, P Crow-Armstrong, are all struggling at the plate. Major league baseball is really hard.
It’s really interesting how poorly rookies are performing this year.
There are currently 13 qualified bats hitting above average (100 wRC+). Only 4 of them (Ortiz, Busch, Carter and Merrill) are top 100 prospects. The other 9 are all 45FV or lower (two of them were even unranked: Jacob Young and Davis Schneider).
Meanwhile, the top 100 prospects have been almost uniformly bad:
1. Jackson Holliday -48 wRC+ (ooff…)
2. Wyatt Langford 68 wRC+
3. Jackson Chourio 76 wRC+
8. Jackson Merrill 107 wRC+
13. Evan Carter 112 wRC+
23. Pete Crow-Armstrong 64 wRC+
28. Masyn Winn 99 wRC+
33. Curtis Mead 64 wRC+
45. Joey Ortiz 145 wRC+
46. Colt Keith 20 wRC+
47. Austin Wells 83 wRC+
50. Ceddane Raffaela 63 wRC+
59. Brayan Rocchio 83 wRC+
70. Jung Hoo Lee 90wRC+
82. Victor Scott -19 wRC+
83. Michael Busch 129 wRC+
I have nothing to compare this to, but it certainly feels a lot less predictable, with the “best” bats struggling mightily. Is there usually this much struggle among top-tier prospects? And is it strange that the best hitting rookies, Wenceel Perez (165 wRC+, 40 FV), Colton Cowser (155 wRC+, 45 FV) and Blaze Alexander (145 wRC+, 40 FV) were all considered mediocre prospects?
On the other hand, rookie pitchers don’t appear to have struggled as much as batters. I don’t have the time to go through each like I did the hitters, but currently 37 rookie pitchers have a FIP below average, including top 100 arms, like Miller, Harrison, Wicks, J. Jones, Meyer, Hurt, Scott. The only top 100 arm I could come across with a FIP- over 100 was Smith-Shawver (155 FIP-), but his ERA- is actually 95, so it hasn’t been entirely bad.
Quite a contrast to the bats.
A lot of these guys were highly rated because they could play higher up the defensive spectrum, so I’m not totally surprised.
The one I am most surprised by is Colt Keith. I thought for sure he’d be a league-average hitter right out of the gate. But he’s been totally hopeless.
I had the same expectation. At least his defense has been basically scratch so that’s better than expectation.
No on the “mediocre” prospects. They’re all running babips from .347 to .375. Cowser also has an unsustainable hr/fb rate, while having a horrible time making contact. This early in the season, I’m not remotely surprised that current rookie leaders include guys on heaters who probably won’t stay in the chase when adjustments are made and regression happens.
Evan Carter definitely benefited from his exposure last year and his advanced approach in general.
On the fantasy side Zimmerman wrote an article about guys struggling coming up from the automatic ball-strike system in the lower levels to the major league non automatic system so I wonder if that has a role.
And I think we have been spoiled recently with some truly ridiculous immediate performances (Soto in 2018, Yordan in 2019 coming to mind) that we forget a lot of guys struggle initially (even Mike Trout struggled a bit in his first season up).
In fairness, Cowser was rated as a top 100 prospect by several other outlets (Eric has long been the low man on Cowser), so might be a bit harsh to label him as a “mediocre prospect”. And as others have mentioned, it’s still a pretty small sample.
I’m buying the theory floating around that the consolidation of the minor leagues means teams prioritize tools and have fewer fringe MLBers in AAA, and way fewer guys who know how to pitch at the lower levels. And with the gap between MLB and AAA pitching greater than ever it’s getting much harder for prospect bats to transition to MLB
There are also MLB teams who think that the automated zone in AAA is actively bad for hitting development – especially guys who have a plan at the plate and a good idea of the zone.
Why would it be worse for the guys with a good idea of the zone? Are you saying it’s beneficial to them at AAA when they can rely on the “correct” calls being made and then they get hosed at MLB by bad calls?
“Too close to take” can be challenged into ball at AAA, but is still a called strike in MLB. Definitely has an effect on approach
Nope.
The issue is that the AAA zone bears far less resemblance to what the MLB one is, was, or ever will be than the AA zone.
That’s why Soderstrom hits so much better there – pitchers are forced to pump it down the gut of the zone.
I agree with all of this–automated zone plus lack of AAAA guys to challenge the top prospects. And god help a prospect in the PCL where you hardly ever get to see decent breaking stuff due to altitude.
As someone who watches every Rangers game, Langford actually does get hosed. He’s got the highest percentage of balls called strikes of anyone in the majors who’s seen at least 400 pitches: https://shorturl.at/bhrFS. Not saying it explains everything, obviously, but the umps aren’t helping him.
Meant to sort that by Pitch %, like so: https://shorturl.at/ftGX8.
Good theory. I can buy this.
Austin Wells just went 2-4 with two doubles at the plate tonight and brought his wRC+ from 83 to 96 with an xWOBA of .402. It’s still early.
So, how much of the “rookies are not performing well at the start” might be due to having spent a chunk of time with the robo umps and now have to adjust to C.B. Buckner and his roving zone?
Sounds like a good article for here. Could probably be investigated by seeing if some of these guys are taking an inordinate amount of strike calls on close balls.
We are ahead of our time, CC AFC
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/minor-league-hitters-struggling-with-umpire-strike-zones/
Chris Young looked at this injury problem making a big hole at DH and said “That’s gross man. let’s get Robbie back”.
One Bubba later, TEX has a shiny new rerun platoon DH to alleviate the team’s weakness to LHP.
Is there a chat today? I don’t see a link. I didn’t see one for Sporer’s yesterday, either, until several hours after it ended.