2016 Pitcher Projections Visualization
Last week, I created a visualization of offensive stat projections for our Depth Charts, which use a blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections adjusted for playing time. It reflects the updates we make to the Depth Charts with injuries and roster moves. Below is its counterpart — pitching stats projections.
For our pitching visualization, I’ve included eight different stats we commonly use at FanGraphs: ERA, FIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, BABIP, RA9-WAR and WAR. For those not familiar with the different versions of pitching WAR FanGraphs hosts, our primary WAR calculations are based on a modified version of fielding independent pitching (FIP), which relies on strikeouts, walks, infield flies and home runs. RA9-WAR is based on runs allowed per nine innings. Each provides a different perspective on a value of a pitcher. I also chose to include batting average on balls in play (BABIP) this year to illustrate differences in expected BABIP, since some pitchers are able to affect the quality of contact of balls that are put into play.
The players are grouped into three categories: All Pitchers, As Starters, and As Relievers. These classifications are pulled from the playing time allotted to pitchers on the Depth Charts. A pitcher can be on both the starters graph and relievers graph; the number of inning he is projected to pitch will be different, along with WAR stats which are dependent on playing time. For “All Pitchers” playing time will be combined.
The circles on the graph represent an individual pitcher. The yellow line is the roster’s combined stat, which is specific to the category of pitcher you select. The gray bars represent the 25th and 75th percentile of the players shown on the graph. This illustrates the middle 50% of the pitchers available on the roster.
The data will update to account for roster moves consistently until the beginning of the season.
I build things here.
That Kershaw guy is kind of ok, I guess.