2016 Pitcher Projections Visualization

Last week, I created a visualization of offensive stat projections for our Depth Charts, which use a blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections adjusted for playing time. It reflects the updates we make to the Depth Charts with injuries and roster moves. Below is its counterpart — pitching stats projections.

For our pitching visualization, I’ve included eight different stats we commonly use at FanGraphs: ERA, FIP, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, BABIP, RA9-WAR and WAR. For those not familiar with the different versions of pitching WAR FanGraphs hosts, our primary WAR calculations are based on a modified version of fielding independent pitching (FIP), which relies on strikeouts, walks, infield flies and home runs. RA9-WAR is based on runs allowed per nine innings. Each provides a different perspective on a value of a pitcher. I also chose to include batting average on balls in play (BABIP) this year to illustrate differences in expected BABIP, since some pitchers are able to affect the quality of contact of balls that are put into play.

The players are grouped into three categories: All Pitchers, As Starters, and As Relievers. These classifications are pulled from the playing time allotted to pitchers on the Depth Charts. A pitcher can be on both the starters graph and relievers graph; the number of inning he is projected to pitch will be different, along with WAR stats which are dependent on playing time. For “All Pitchers” playing time will be combined.

The circles on the graph represent an individual pitcher. The yellow line is the roster’s combined stat, which is specific to the category of pitcher you select. The gray bars represent the 25th and 75th percentile of the players shown on the graph. This illustrates the middle 50% of the pitchers available on the roster.

The data will update to account for roster moves consistently until the beginning of the season.

ERA
FIP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
RA9-WAR
WAR
All Pitchers
As Starters
As Relievers
2016 MLB Pitching Projections
FanGraphs Depth Charts

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11 Comments
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senor_mike
10 years ago

That Kershaw guy is kind of ok, I guess.

JasonMember since 2016
10 years ago

Amazing how similar the projections are for Harvey and DeGrom.

timmer
10 years ago

Fun to look at K/9 and see Chapman, Miller, & Betances on the Yankees line…

The Ghost of Stephen Drews BatMember since 2026
10 years ago
Reply to  timmer

Got me aroused to the 25% percentile, if you know what I mean.

fjtorres
10 years ago

Had a moment of cognitive dissonance until I realized this chart runs opposite to the hitters’ chart and the lower performers are on the right, not the left.
I don’t suppose flipping it horizontally is an option? 😉

Baron Samedi
10 years ago

Sorting by WAR shows how overrated the Yankees pen is/will be.

Bernie Sanders
10 years ago
Reply to  Baron Samedi

I didn’t know the Yankees organization had sexual organs. Maybe I was wrong about Citizens United and corporations really are people!

Cory Settoon
10 years ago

That 7.34 BB/9 for Kyle Crick is awesome. Not unwarranted, but still insane.

steex
10 years ago
Reply to  Cory Settoon

Especially insane given that he’s projected for 9 innings, so he’ll have to figure out how to walk 7.34 batters to achieve that rate.

MikeSMember since 2020
10 years ago

Looks like you are predicting an AL Cy Young award for Chris Sale.

lonewolf371
10 years ago
Reply to  MikeS

The robot computer people are *projecting* an AL Cy Young award for Chris Sale.