2018 Prospect Graduations

What follows is simply a list of prospects who exceeded rookie-eligibility requirements in 2018. They are sorted into FV tiers (as listed at time of graduation) but not ranked within those tiers. Note the players whom we missed in the “Not Ranked” section at the bottom of the list. Lou Trivino (dominant reliever, probably should have been a 45 FV) and Niko Goodrum (a multipositional bat, typically a 45 FV for us) are prominent whiffs. Several of the 35 FV players were graded more highly in previous years (Fletcher, Laureano, O’Hearn, Palka) and they are a lesson in impatience and over-correction. Also take a gander at this piece from last winter, which I think has aged pretty well, especially the list of middle infielders.

2018 Prospect Graduates
Name Team Pos FV
Shohei Ohtani LAA RHP/DH 70
Ronald Acuna ATL CF 65
Gleyber Torres NYY SS 60
Juan Soto WAS OF 60
Lewis Brinson MIA CF 60
Miguel Andujar NYY 3B 60
Willy Adames TBR SS 60
Corbin Burnes MIL RHP 55
Franklin Barreto OAK CF 55
J.P. Crawford PHI SS 55
Scott Kingery PHI 2B 55
Walker Buehler LAD RHP 55
Austin Meadows PIT OF 50
Brandon Woodruff MIL RHP 50
Brian Anderson MIA 3B 50
Jack Flaherty STL RHP 50
Christian Arroyo TBR 3B 50
Shane Bieber CLE RHP 50
Dustin Fowler OAK CF 50
Fernando Romero MIN RHP 50
Jake Bauers TBR RF 50
Jesse Winker CIN OF 50
Carson Kelly STL C 50
Joey Lucchesi SDP LHP 50
Chance Sisco BAL C 50
Max Fried ATL LHP 50
Ryan McMahon COL 1B 50
Tyler Mahle CIN RHP 50
Colin Moran PIT 3B 50
Tyler O’Neill STL RF 50
Freddy Peralta MIL RHP 45+
Steven Duggar SFG CF 45+
A.J. Minter ATL LHP 45
Alex Blandino CIN 2B 45
Brett Phillips MIL OF 45
Cedric Mullins BAL CF 45
Erick Fedde WSN RHP 45
Franchy Cordero SDP CF 45
Greg Allen CLE CF 45
Harrison Bader STL CF 45
Jaime Barria LAA RHP 45
Jalen Beeks TBR LHP 45
Jorge Alfaro PHI C 45
Luis Guillorme NYM SS 45
Magneuris Sierra MIA CF 45
Mitch Garver MIN C 45
Pablo Lopez MIA RHP 45
Ronald Guzman TEX 1B 45
Ryan Borucki TOR LHP 45
Seranthony Dominguez PHI RHP 45
Tanner Scott BAL LHP 45
Tomas Nido NYM C 45
Caleb Ferguson LAD LHP 40+
Yonny Chirinos TBR RHP 40+
Aaron Bummer CHW LHP 40
Andrew Stevenson WSN OF 40
Andrew Suarez SFG LHP 40
Anthony Santander BAL 1B/OF 40
Austin Slater SFG LF 40
Austin Gomber STL LHP 40
Burch Smith KCR RHP 40
Carlos Tocci TEX CF 40
Carson Fulmer CHW RHP 40
Chris Flexen NYM RHP 40
David Bote CHC 3B 40
Diego Castillo TBR RHP 40
Dillon Peters MIA LHP 40
Domingo German NYY RHP 40
Dovydas Neverauskas PIT RHP 40
Edgar Santana PIT RHP 40
Eduardo Paredes LAA RHP 40
Elieser Hernandez MIA RHP 40
Eric Lauer SDP LHP 40
Eric Skoglund KCR LHP 40
Franmil Reyes SDP LF 40
Gabriel Moya MIN LHP 40
Heath Fillmyer KCR RHP 40
Hunter Dozier KCR 3B 40
Isiah Kiner-Falefa TEX UTIL 40
J.D. Davis HOU 3B 40
Jake Cave MIN CF 40
Jefry Rodriguez WSN RHP 40
Jorge Lopez KCR RHP 40
Lourdes Gurriel TOR SS 40
Luke Bard MIN RHP 40
Max Stassi HOU C 40
Phil Ervin CIN OF 40
Renato Nunez OAK 3B 40
Reyes Moronta SFG RHP 40
Richard Urena TOR SS 40
Roman Quinn PHI CF 40
Ryne Stanek TBR RHP 40
Socrates Brito ARI CF 40
Taylor Williams MIL RHP 40
Taylor Ward LAA 3B 40
Tom Murphy COL 1B 40
Tyler Austin NYY OF 40
Tzu-Wei Lin BOS UTIL 40
Victor Reyes DET OF 40
Yefry Ramirez BAL RHP 40
Ariel Jurado TEX RHP 35
Brad Keller KCR RHP 35
Daniel Palka CHW OF 35
David Fletcher LAA SS 35
David Hess BAL RHP 35
Jace Fry CHW LHP 35
Jesse Biddle ATL LHP 35
Ramon Laureano OAK OF 35
Ryan O’Hearn KCR 1B 35
Victor Arano PHI RHP 35
Adam Cimber CLE RHP NR
Caleb Smith MIA LHP NR
Christian Villanueva SDP 3B NR
Dereck Rodriguez SFG RHP NR
Felix Pena LAA RHP NR
Jeff McNeil NYM INF NR
Justin Anderson LAA RHP NR
Kyle Crick PIT RHP NR
Lou Trivino OAK RHP NR
Nick Martini OAK OF/1B NR
Niko Goodrum DET UTIL NR
Richard Rodriguez PIT RHP NR
Rosell Herrera KCR UTIL NR
Shane Carle ATL RHP NR
Trevor Richards MIA RHP NR

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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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Glixie
Member
Glixie

Interesting how 13 or 15 non-ranked rookies recorded at least 0.5 wins this season, with over half of that exceeding 1.2 WAR. Obviously this doesn’t control for playing time or future projection, but imo this demonstrates just how value there is to be found in unheralded players. I wonder how this compares to other rookie classes of un-scouted players?

hahiggins
Member
Member
hahiggins

Interesting! I think you’d have to look at a longer sample (maybe 3 years) to really know if there’s value. And you’re right, it could just be a this-year thing.

slamcactus
Member
slamcactus

The question is where’s the value. If there’s no connecting thread that helps you identify the type ahead of time, then the takeaway is that of the >6,000 minor leaguers who never get written up on a team Top-X list, some of them will still make the majors and some smaller number of them will add real value.

slamcactus
Member
slamcactus

I’d be surprised if this year was an outlier. It’s not accurate to say these guys aren’t scouted, it’s just that they’re not talked about much outside their own organizations. Just eyeballing the list I see at least two guys (Crick, Herrera) who were ranked here and elsewhere for multiple years, including in their teams’ top 10s, before poor performance dropped them off everyone’s radar. It’s not a huge surprise that some of those guys leverage the tools/skills scouts saw in them early in their careers to find some sort of role in the majors — generally in relief/utility.

Aside from that, I’m not really sure what lessons there are here other than that breakouts can come from nowhere (C. Villanueva, D. Rodriguez) or that some of the guys who grind it out until their mid-late 20s can show themselves deserving of big-league looks, even if they’re never exciting enough to get written up as top prospects (most of the rest of the NR names on that list).

Stovokor
Member
Member
Stovokor

There is some survivorship bias here. Org guy gets called up, does well in a small sample so gets more playing time and accrues WAR. Doesn’t mean they will continue to be 1-2 WAR guys – it probably isn’t their true talent level.

Most of them will fade into oblivion, while a few will outperform the scouting reports and carve out a decent MLB career.