A 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot of Your Own — and a Schedule of Profiles
Between a very interesting Modern Baseball Era Committee ballot and Thanksgiving travel (which in my case took a turn for the worse), it’s taken me longer than usual to shift into high gear with my JAWS-flavored profiles of the 32 candidates on the BBWAA’s 2020 Hall of Fame ballot. While the navigation bar atop each profile can guide you to the series’ installments thus far, it’s worth laying out a tentative schedule as well as providing a clearinghouse for a bit of business, including the reprise of a very cool feature our developer, Sean Dolinar, helped us pull off last year.
In the spirit of our annual free agent contract crowdsourcing, FanGraphs invites registered users to fill out their own virtual Hall of Fame ballots. You must be signed in to vote, and you may only vote once. To replicate the actual voting process, you may vote for anywhere from zero to 10 players; ballots with more than 10 won’t be counted. You may change your ballot until the deadline, which is December 31, 2019, the same as that of the actual BBWAA voters, who have to schlep their paper ballot to the mailbox.
The ballot is here and contains all 32 candidates (sorry, no write-ins for those fixated on Pete Rose). We’ve got tables of career stats for hitters and pitchers, if that helps, as well as a checkbox that allows you to see the stats of those already enshrined. As with last year, I’ll write up the crowdsourcing results sometime in early January, when we’re all jonesing for Hall news in advance of the announcement of the official results on January 21.
As for the schedule, here it is below, broken into five-day weeks, as we’re not planning to publish these on weekends, or on the several days around Christmas and New Years Day, during which the site will be dark. Please keep in mind that the schedule is tentative and subject to change, particularly when it comes to the new profiles (denoted with asterisks), which take time to do justice. There’s also the chance that I’ll want to weigh in on trades, signings, or other current events, which is still part of my job here.
November
Nov. 18: BBWAA Ballot intro
Nov. 21: Larry Walker
Nov. 22: Omar Vizquel
Nov. 25: Scott Rolen
Nov. 26: Todd Helton
Nov. 27: Curt Schilling
Nov. 28-29: Thanksgiving Break (site dark)
December
Dec. 2: Andy Pettitte
Dec. 3: Derek Jeter*
Dec. 4: Manny Ramirez
Dec. 5: Gary Sheffield
Dec. 6: Bobby Abreu*
Dec. 8 (Sunday): Modern Baseball Era Committee results
Dec. 9: Billy Wagner
Dec. 10: Barry Bonds
Dec. 11: Roger Clemens
Dec. 12: Too Much Winter Meetings
Dec. 13: Jeff Kent
Dec. 16: Andruw Jones
Dec. 17: Jason Giambi*
Dec. 18: Sammy Sosa
Dec. 19: Cliff Lee*
Dec 23-25: Christmas Break (site dark)
Dec. 26 One-and-Dones, Part 1*
Dec. 27 My Virtual Ballot*
Dec. 30-Jan 1: New Year’s Break (site dark)
January
Jan. 2: One-and-Dones, Part 2*
Jan. 3: One-and-Dones, Part 3*
Jan. 6: One-and-Dones, Part 4*
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
I put Jeter, Walker, and Rolen down in pen. I also tentatively penciled in Sheffield and Jones and have put in and erased and entered Schilling’s name so many times the ballot is disintegrating. I could go either way on all three of them, for various reasons.
I keep thinking about Jeff Kent, and I’m tempted to put Helton on for no other reason that I have the space, but I am not going to do either one. It’ll be interesting to see how my ballot will change as Jay writes up the rest of these. Also, I added Adam Dunn for his incredible exploits in the Clone Baseball League, and his inclusion is non-negotiable–it doesn’t matter what Jay says.
Which Adam Dunn?
I went with a 9 person ballot. I decided that I don’t care about PEDs cause I don’t know who took what or when they did it. Or what effect it had on them. And neither does anyone else. I also decided I don’t want to be the moral police. So I’m ignoring any off the field stuff.
Bonds
Clemens
Jeter
Manny
Rolen
Schilling
Walker
Sheffield
Pettitte (Some of the discussion on Jay’s article convinced me that he just crosses the threshold).
I also looked at Helton, Jones, Sosa, Kent, and Abreu. Jones was the toughest to leave off but too much of his case rests of the defensive stats. So I’m not 100% convinced at this point.
Similar not worrying about PED or off field. The character clause didn’t keep Ty Cobb out, and use of illegal greenies (illegal at the time and now) didn’t keep any number of people out.
I went with:
Bonds, Clemens, Helton, Jeter, Jones, Ramirez, Rolen, Schilling, Sheffield, and Walker.
If I had an actual ballot I’m fairly sure I’d dump Jeter tactically on the basis that there are still more than 10 good candidates and vote Abreu, Sosa, or Sheffield instead. If I had unlimited votes I’d think hard about throwing in Pettitte or Kent.
Edit to add: I wouldn’t worry about Jones’s defensive stats being inaccurate, they were just too spectacular for too long. He was clearly a great defender for years. If I had an actual ballot, I might dump Ramirez on the basis of the suspensions (violations of an enforced rule count for more than violations of a joke), and there are still plenty of deserving names.
Yeah, the character clause is weird because there are no guidelines for how to use it. And there’s no way to apply it retroactively if stuff comes out after someone’s already been elected.
It’s also unique to baseball. No other Hall of Fame has something like that, sports or otherwise (would anyone be in the Rock and Roll HOF if they had a character clause???).
If Ty Cobb should have been kept out by the character clause, then 90 percent or more of his contemporaries should have been, too.
I went with Wagner, and I’m torn about Ramirez vs. Abreu, Kent, Helton, and (since I’m biased) helping Pettitte stay on the ballot.
Well, you do know when Manny Ramirez took steroids. You may not know every time he did, but he got busted, twice, when there was no sliver of the “but they weren’t illegal” argument left.
I went Pettitte, Jones, Bonds, Clemens, Helton, Walker, Kent, Abreu, Wagner, Rolen.
I didn’t vote for Jeter because he’s assured election anyway. I totally believed he deserves it. With more spots, I’d have voted for him and Vizquel, at least.
My votes were for hopeful election (Walker), to help some guys stay on the ballot, and to build momentum for others.
I don’t necessarily believe that Schilling, Sheffield and Sosa should be excluded, but I care less about helping them make it in than I do about other priorities.
I’d firmly have Sheff over Bobby, Andy, Helton, and Kent.
This is exactly my ballot
Wow, my ballot was identical except I swapped Pettitte for Andruw.
Just wanted to say how much I appreciate this and how much fun it is to be able to vote. Thank you, Jay, Sean, and FG!
I’m pretty certain of my first 9 (Walker, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Jeter, Rolen, Jones, Pettitte, and Sosa). I just can’t decide between Helton and Abreu for the last spot. I am looking forward to Jay’s write-up on Abreu to see where he lands on his candidacy.
My own ballot was Abreu, Bonds, Clemens, Jeter, Rolen, Sosa, Wagner, Walker, and Sheff.
Sosa, Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield…they have the numbers and they’re largely from an era that didn’t care how they arrived there until far too late, so neither should I. Manny is a different story to me because he got busted repeatedly while active.
Jeter, Rolen, and Walker were easy picks. Deliberation on Abreu and Wagner took awhile, but Abreu’s offensive prowess and Wagner’s rate dominance eventually won the day.
As for Schilling…well, I wouldn’t personally vote for him because fuck him, but neither would I argue anyone else’s decision to do so.
I’m still not completely sold on Andruw Jones or Todd Helton, but could possibly be talked into them after a few drinks.
As for the rest of the players on the ballot…congratulations on having careers successful enough that you got Hall of Fame consideration, fellas!
I didn’t vote for PED guys, but I still voted 10 guys. I went with Jeter, Walker, Schilling, Helton, Jones, Rolen, Wagner, Vizquel, Abreu, and Kent.
I think you mean to say “I didn’t vote for any known PED guys”. Cause given the era, I’d be willing to bet that at least one person on your list took PEDs.
I think “PED guys” is short for “players that have been credibly linked to PED”
To exclude a player from the HOF, I think you haver to have proof of use and that the use significantly impacted the player’s career. I make a distinction between guys proven to have used PEDs mid-career (e.g.) Bonds) which significantly impacted their career and guys for whom either (1) there’s no proof (as opposed to allegations) of PED use (e.g. Clemens) or (2) the only proven use is at the end of their career (e.g. Ramirez). So I voted for 8: Clemens, Jeter, Kent, Ramirez, Rolen, Schilling, Sheffield and Wagner.
I think Walker just missed too much playing time and Helton’s Coors/Away splits are just too great. I agree with others’ comments that Andrew Jones WAR relies too much on defensive metrics which just aren’t that reliable.
So Bonds is “proven” to have used steroids but for Clemens there is no “proof.” How did you come to this conclusion?
Bill James has made that argument:
https://www.billjamesonline.com/article599/
And in an interview a few months later he was asked:
“Do you think Roger Clemens used steroids?”
And this was his response:
“I do not. I hope he did not. I don’t know if this guy used anything. I don’t find the evidence at all convincing. You know, I get kicked in the teeth a lot for being the guy who never believes that anyone is guilty. And that’s fair enough. But I just think that he’s entitled to the benefit of the issue as long as the evidence is inconclusive. I think it’s really inconclusive. ”
Course James also gave a full-throated defense of Pete Rose, only to have Rose confess a few years later…
I don’t really understand giving Bill James’ interpretations of the evidence any more weight than the average person. I mean, why would you?
Where did I say I was giving more weight to Bill James than anyone else? In fact, it should be obvious that I’m NOT doing that by my last sentence in which I point out that James was completely wrong about Pete Rose. I’m simply pointing out that Forrest isn’t the first person to come to the conclusion that Clemens didn’t use PEDs.
If this isn’t just an appeal to authority, then it is literally nothing. James offers zero analysis in that quote.
I vote Jeter, Rolen, Walker, Sheffield, Jones and Schilling. I know it’s a long list, but this is who I’m feeling now and it might change with time.
I’d also like to add Pettite, Ramirez, Helton and Kent.
I voted for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez, Larry Walker, Sammy Sosa, Scott Rolen, Andruw Jones, and Todd Helton.
If I had unlimited votes I would have voted for Sheffield and Pettitte with Abreu, Giambi, Kent and Lee falling just short.
Why Ramirez over Sheffield?
I think there’s a statistical case in terms of triple slash, RC+, HR and RBI advantage, won WS MVP for the Red Sox in 2004, and then won another championship with them in 2007. Jay’s article about Sheffield has given me a new appreciation for him, specifically his unique combination of discipline, power, and contact. Yet I never considered the two all that close, and I am a die hard Yankees fan. Perhaps it is also a generational thing – when I was watching the two the most in the early 2000s, Manny was significantly better, while Sheffield had many of his top seasons before my time (pre-’98).
Right now I’d go… Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, and Billy Wagner.
I could be probably talked into Helton. Andruw Jones is somebody I thought about for a long time but I can’t go in on him given the domestic violence issues and the fact that he so obviously just gave up on caring about being a baseball player at such a young age. Scott Rolen is somebody who I’d vote for if I had more confidence in defensive metrics but… I feel like we should take a bit more time to iron out the kinks there before we buy all-the-way in to them for him. Nobody else I’d consider voting for.
In that vein, so did Griffey, right?
I went with 9 players – Bonds, Schilling, Clemens, Walker, Jeter, Helton, Sheffield, Manny, and Rolen. I also considered Kent (elite 2B power), Andruw (feel blessed if you watched him play center), Sosa, Pettitte, and Vizquel, to varying degrees. Nobody else, really, though IMO a guy like Abreu has a (somewhat) better case for Cooperstown than one might think. I’m also still not even sure where to begin on the “character” issues abounding here.
Walker, Rolen, Jeter, Wagner, Jones
Who the fuck got carlos pena on the ballot
I voted for Walker then strategically for 9 guys perceived as marginal – Abreu, Giambi, Helton, Andruw, Cliff Lee, Pettitte, Rolen, Sheffield, Sosa. There are 232 players in the HOF right now and I have all those guys in the top 232 all-time amongst eligible players. That’s the starting point I like to use when determining Hall worthiness.
Bonds, Clemens, Manny, Jeter, and Schilling are all obviously worthy by the numbers but in no danger of falling below 5%.
(If you’re looking for offseason reading allow me to humbly pimp the statistical Hall I created last offseason at https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/3/18123455/the-500-greatest-players-in-mlb-history … would love to update it but the catcher framing update to fWAR has thrown a bit of a wrench into the career leaderboards!)
It was tough to pick ten (for once), almost went with nine but Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Manny, Jeter, Walker, Rolen, Sheffield, Helton, Jones
Bonds, Clemens, Jeter, and Schilling are, to me, no-brainer inner circle should-have-been-first-ballot HoFers. As has been said many times before, Bonds and Clemens were first ballot HoFers long before the juiced.
I’d say the same for Manny’s career, who, besides his awesome O numbers, to me simply feels like a HoFer.
Walker is another definite. And yes the other Rockie, Helton, ‘s home/road splits are brutal, and he only had like five really HoF-ish years, which makes him borderline, but I’d put him in.
Andruw and Rolen’s combination of strong O and historically great D, plus positional adjustment, means that they’re in.
It was a tough choice for my final spot.
Wagner’s fifth in all time reliever WPA, but it comes down to the much-debated question of whether any relief pitchers outside of Mariano should be in the Hall at all. Are Joe Nathan and Papelbon (#4 and #5) HoFers? I would actually be fine with all of four of them in the Hall, if for no other reason the importance of closers to modern baseball’s “story”, and I would vote for Wagner if I had twelve votes. But he didn’t get my vote this time.
(Lee Smith is #7 on all time RP WPA, and Bruce Sutter, who joins Harold Baines and Jack Morris in the “shouldn’t be a HoFer” club, is just #18)
I wanted to vote Scheff for the final spot, and he feels HoF-y to me too. But in the end I went with Slammin’ Sammy. I don’t like or want to vote for him, but if I am ignoring PEDs issues for some other guys, Sosa’s meaning to baseball history and 1995-2003 HR and RBI numbers can’t be ignored.