An Omnibus Post For All These Crazy Transactions
Screw it, I can’t even keep up anymore. While I was writing my opus on the Matt Kemp trade, about 55 more things have happened, and we’re all sleep deprived and running on fumes, so I’m throwing in the white flag on trying to write these all up separately. Consider this the December 11th transaction hub. I’ll update this as things come in, and you can use this as a place to tell me about the 15 deals I missed while I tried to breathe.
The Tigers made their trade with the Reds to get a starting pitcher, but it was Alfredo Simon going to Detroit to replace Rick Porcello. Simon has outperformed his peripherals for 500 big league innings, but he doesn’t look like a great bet to be more than a serviceable back-end starter. To acquire one year of his rights, the Tigers gave up infielder Eugenio Suarez and pitching prospect Jonathan Crawford. Nice little move by the Reds.
Cincinnati wasn’t done, though, trading Mat Latos to the Marlins in exchange for Anthony DeSclafani and Chad Wallach. Kiley McDaniel, on those two.
Just saw RHP Anthony DeSclafani (near MLB ready back end piece, 90-93) and C Chad Wallach (big guy, light bat, may be MLB backup) in AFL.
— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) December 11, 2014
Latos’ velocity and strikeout rate both took big wrong turns in 2014 after he began the year on the disabled list, so there’s all kinds of red flags here. If he’s healthy and gets his velocity back, he could be a good pitcher again, but it’s one year of a health gamble for the Marlins. I can’t say I’m a fan of what they’ve done the last 24 hours.
And finally, according to Buster Olney, the Red Sox have rounded out their rotation by signing Justin Masterson to a one year contract. Like Latos, Masterson is a pitcher with a good track record who had a lousy 2014 season, so this is an upside play, only Masterson didn’t cost the Red Sox any talent to acquire. He’ll join Rick Porcello and Wade Miley in providing depth that the Red Sox didn’t have previously, though I wouldn’t be surprised if they still pursued a front-end guy to upgrade over Clay Buchholz or Joe Kelly.
Oh, and the Royals apparently got close to signing Kendrys Morales while I wrote the last paragraph. $17 million for two years, so basically, the everyone-gets-an-extra-year inflation continues. You apparently have to be near death to settle for a one year deal anymore.
And now there’s this.
Source: Ervin Santana finalizing a four-year deal for around $54 million with Minnesota.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 11, 2014
Hey, I got one, kinda. I had Santana landing a 4/$52M contract from an AL Central team, though it was KC, not Minneosta. In this market, for what Santana is, this feels about right. Average is expensive now.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
this has been the craziest 24 hours I can remember.
It’s the 24 hours you can’t remember you have to worry about.
😉
I feel like the entire offseason has been pretty crazy
Do we actually know that the Red Sox signed Masterson to be a starter? I’d be surprised if their planned rotation is Buchholz/Porcello/Masterson/Miley/Kelly.
Yeah that doesn’t seem like a rotation that can compete for an AL East title – unless they think their lineup is going to perform like the ’97 Indians.
Considering the other rotations currently in the AL East I would feel pretty good about mine if I was Boston.
I take it you’re not an Orioles fan.
Seriously, a rotation like that JUST WON THE AL EAST.
It’s not that they couldn’t compete with that. A rotation of 5 average-ish guys plus a good bullpen and the best lineup in baseball is one way to build a contender. I just don’t think that’s what the Sox are going to do.
As a Sox fan, reliably average is boring. I was hoping for a front-end guy or two (Lester, Shields, Hamels, Scherzer), a high/risk reward guy or two (Liriano, Anderson, Johnson), and one or two of the young guys (de la Rosa, Webster, Workman, Ranaudo).
Well, at least the last two guys they got are groundball machines.
And, maybe they’re getting while the getting is still good after Lester signed. I’ve got a gut that Hamels will end up with the Dodgers, Scherzer will cost the GNP of Vanautu, and I don’t trust Shields not to crap out. That leaves either crapshoots like Anderson or guys below the Ervin Santana line.
Yeah, getting a front-end guy would be nice for 2015, but what about 2019? It doesn’t matter who it is – it’s gonna be rough. And being that there are only 5 rotation spots, it’s a lot harder to identify a sunk cost and count your losses like for a hitter.
The point being, just because you CAN get one of those #1 guys, should you? The Red Sox just won the World Series 2 years ago. Let’s not go mortgaging future chances just to be the AL Giants.
They’ve already got the high risk/high reward guy in Buchholz and just added another medium risk/medium reward guy in Masterson.
I agree with you that I want to see them giving the prospects a real shot soon as we have several promising ones and that’s the only chance to get a young, cost-controlled ace, but those aren’t the 4 guys I would list. I have zero faith in either Webster or Ranaudo even being good relievers, Workman can be a good reliever but no better than a #5 starter, and while RDLR’s fun to dream on I think he’s likely a (really good) reliever too. I know, he had surgery and all, but he’s 26 on opening day – only 3 months younger than Rick Porcello! Now, the next group of AAA guys hopefully has at least 1 ace or #2 in it, but no one I’d trust to start the season. But if we need to open up 1 or more rotation spots we really aren’t tied to anyone going forward, although I do hope Buchholz pitches well enough picking up his options is a no-brainer and we try to extend Porcello. Go offer him a 4/$70m extension in spring training 😉
I also think fans tend to overrate past rotations. The 2013 team had Ryan Dempster and Felix Doubront in the rotation, with Alfredo Aceves and Allen Webster SP’s 6/7 after Clay went down. Meanwhile of the two “studs” one was coming off a season in which he had an 87 ERA+ (Lester) and the other had put up a 67 ERA+ and then missed an entire season (Lackey). Meanwhile 2007 had Josh Beckett (coming off his AL debut season in which he posted an ERA over 5.00), 40y/o Curt Schilling, Daisuke and Wakefield putting up league-average seasons, and frickin Julian Tavarez as the 5th starter until Jon Lester came back from cancer around the trade deadline. 2004 was headlined by Curt Schilling and a Pedro who was still good (although down to mortal status) and Bronson Arroyo had an above average year, but then had both Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield put up below league average performances. What all 3 teams did have in common was a very good/deep offense, and 2 elite relievers surrounded by a number of other competent ones.
I’m sure their planned rotation has a bigger name penciled in at the top. Someone you listed is going to start the year in AAA or the bullpen, ready to cover for the inevitable injury or under performance
A demotion to AAA isn’t an option. All five are out of option years, and none of them would survive waivers even if they agreed to be optioned.
OK, then it’s long relief or traded away for a different piece…
They could still send Masterson or Kelly to the bullpen. Or trade one of Porcello/Miley/Kelly.
And pitchers being pitchers, it’s sensible to have 6 starters for 5 spots anyway.
Hey, check out the career GB/FB ratios for those five guys:
Masterson: 2.20
Kelly: 1.96
Porcello: 1.89
Miley: 1.64
Buchholz: 1.49
That’s smart, considering Fenway.
Forgot that Miley is a good GB pitcher.
Better with Sandoval getting more chances and Ramirez getting less.
Steamer actually projects that rotation to be the 3rd best in the AL East before the addition of Masterson. Probably will be tied for 2nd with the Blue Jays with Masterson’s addition.
To be fair though, The jays rotation isnt very good. So being tied with them for second may not be something to be all that pleased about.
Too, Masterson may knock them down to 4th rather than up to 2nd. 🙂
I don’t think Wade Miley is that good after four or five innings from what I can remember.
Nobody is that good after 4-5 innings. The old “third time through the order” canard. And if you look at B-R’s by inning breakdown, Miley’s career numbers actually show not that much dropoff.
True, Latos K rate drop was worrisome, but he was still a very good pitcher last year. Whether or not he can keep that up without re-upping his K rate is another matter.
he wasn’t a very good pitcher last year
$17M plus incentives over two for Kendrys.
Yikes… do not like.
There’s almost no such thing as a bad 2/17 contract
Billy Butler made 8 million last year (9 if you want to include his buyout this year) and posted a posted a 97 wRC+ and .311 wOBA. Steamer projects Morales to be a 106 wRC+ player this year with a .324 wOBA and his base salary is less then Butlers.
Also considering he is only one season removed from back to back 119 wRC+ years, I would say that for a team that sorely needs offence he’s a pretty cheap source.
That’s one of the funniest examples of cherry-picking I’ve seen. Billy Butler had a higher wRC+ than Morales in 2010, 2011, 2012, loses 119-117 in 2013, was a full 25 points higher in 2014, and is projected +13 in 2015 by Steamer.
Morales almost certainly will bounce back from his 2014 with a full spring training, and I don’t like either deal, but there’s no way 2/$18 for Morales makes more sense than 3/$30 for Butler.
Who said anything about Butler’s new contract? All I said is that Morales projects to be a better DH then what they had last year and for less money they the paid the position last year. Which makes it a decent deal for a team thats looking for more offence on a limited budget.
You are arguing something I never said.
You said his base salary is less then Butlers. Saying that he projects to be a better DH and for less money than what they had last year might be true in the narrowest possible sense but it ignores that Butler was markedly better than Morales this year, projects to be materially better in 2015, and is being paid a fairly minimal amount more.
If you’re going to defend the deal by saying that $8.5m+ for a projected 106 wRC+ is a pretty cheap source of offense, then that team that “sorely needs offense” probably should have just signed the guy with a projected 119 wRC+ for $10m… especially if that guy probably would have given KC a hometown discount. Heck, Butler already loses about half the difference between the two (~725k) from state tax rates alone.
It made sense to me that KC didn’t want to pay $10m/y to Butler but it’s just a head-scratching choice to let Butler go and then pay Morales unless they think Butler is losing bat speed. There’s no way to defend that difference with statistics.
The M’s seem determined to put this theory to the test.
Not sure why you are so determined to turn my pretty benign statement into an argument. The Royals replaced/improved their DH position from last year without having to spend any more money then they spent last year. That is the entirety of my point. Again, you are arguing something that isn’t there.
Also, Butler makes like 13 million more then Morales over the life of his contract. Not sure how that classifies as a “minimal amount more” but whatever.
Marsupial, you are either not very bright or you enjoy making silly arguments. You know full well that “minimal amount” more refers to yearly salary (and Butler’s is actually backloaded). You also should know that a deal being good or not good does not depend on the production from the same position the previous year. That is nonsense. Maybe the Phillies should pay Lyle Overbay $20 million to play first base. He’s probably better than Howard and they’d be paying him less so it’s a good deal, right? Butler was better last year (though also bad), he’s been better over the course of his career, he is projected to be better, and he is almost three full years younger. Butler is probably a slight overpay; Morales should be looking for a gig in Japan.
Its hilarious that you are accusing me of making silly arguments when I’m the one NOT trying to have a silly argument. I made a fairly benign observation about how the Royals replaced their DH production from last for pretty much the same money and some other guy came along and tried to turn into into an argument about who’s contract is better. As if that had anything to do with anything.
I also find it hilarious that both of you are completely willing to overlook the fact that Butler’s contract is worth almost double what Morales’ is worth simply because for the first two years Butler makes only a couple million more then Morales. Yeah his yearly salary is only “minimally more” then Morales. Right up until the third year when Morales makes $0 and Butler makes $10 million. But I guess we are just supposed to ignore that because acknowledging it would ruin the ridiculous argument you two are so desperate to have.
By the time you’re writing your 4th post on a single thread, it’s probably time to drop the whole “I’m not trying to argue” shtick. And yes, the A’s will be paying a possibly still somewhat useful Butler $11.66 million in 2017 while the Royals will have wasted $17 million the previous two years. I mean, it’s not devastating. They could have literally set $17 million on fire and it would not be devastating. But it was a poor decision.
I presume the ChiSox and Marlins swapping Andre Reinzo for Dan Jennings should be toward the top of this list right?
Baseball is awesome
As a mostly impartial observer who watches all teams’ games on MLB TV during the season, I have to say, Andre Rienzo is one of the most difficult pitchers to watch. Long innings, boring arsenal, bad results.
As a Sox fan, you are 100% correct on your assessment of Rienzo.
Where would Rienzo rate on a scale of 1 to Dice-K-without-good-stuff?
And Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers.
You sleep-deprived bastards, the Mets signed John Mayberry and nothing? Youse hates da Mets?
Headline: “METS SIGN SOME GUY, IMPROVE FORECAST FROM 77.4 WINS TO 77.6”
Article: …so that happened.
There! You got your writeup. Glad to help out.
Ok Jason Bay, just because you hate the Mets doesn’t mean you have to take it out on us.
Excellent! Now where’s my “Mets Take Gilmartin in Rule V Draft” writeup?
The Red Sox are just rounding up those mediocre and cheap (but valuable) starting pitchers. All that contact is gonna be a problem though when you’ve got a questionable OF in Hanram, Betts, and Castillio, a bad defensive shortstop in Bogaerts. Panda plays good D but for how much longer?
…Betts and Castillo are plus defenders in center and right. Hanley is an unknown, but hard to imagine worse than average in Fenway’s LF. Sandoval is a plus defender, Pedroia is possibly the best defensive 2B in baseball, Napoli is above average at first, Vasquez is an elite defensive catcher (and framer).
So what are you talking about?
Betts and Castillo (and Victorino if healthy) should all be above-average OF’s, Hanley will have the smallest ground to cover in home games, plus fewer chances than a normal OF with the GB-heavy rotation, I’d classify Bogaerts as mediocre not bad at SS, and while I didn’t like the Panda contract we can worry about his defense when he actually shows signs of slipping.
I also assume the Red Sox aren’t done dealing yet and will be including Kelly or Miley (if that deal is finalized) as a piece of a deal for a top of the rotation starter. They’ll still have to include one or more high-ceiling prospects too, but Kelly/Miley can take the 2015 rotation spot for a Washington (in place of Zimmerman/Fisher), Cincinnati (Cueto), Seattle (Iwakuma), etc so a headlining guy like Owens/Barnes/Eduardo Rodriguez doesn’t need to be rushed.
The Red Sox didn’t acquire Miley to trade him.
Hey, technically they haven’t even acquired him at all yet!
I think Miley’s underrated and fits in well as a 3/4 but if the Red Sox still plan to acquire a top of the rotation arm the options are either include Miley/Kelly or move Kelly to the bullpen. Porcello only has 1 year of control and won’t appeal to a team moving a 2015 FA because they won’t re-sign him, Buchholz is worth more to us for the chance he’s elite in 2015 than any team will offer in a trade, Masterson can’t be traded and didn’t sign a 1-year deal to rebuild value unless he was promised a starting spot, and we have a plethora of pitchers with options who can fill in for a spot start and will (hopefully) be able to fill in a rotation spot by midseason if necessary.
I’d much rather Kelly get moved, and I’m sure being the only lefty currently in the rotation ups Miley’s chances of sticking around for 2015, but we’ve just seen the Red Sox flip a better player than Miley, and we saw another young lefty in Heaney acquired and flipped just last night. If they really valued Miley that much as a long-term piece I don’t think a prospect like the rumored Wendell Rijo would be holding up the deal.
Just waiting to hear the official announcement of Hamels for Ethier, Lee, and Urias.
Urias, Pederson, and Seager are not going anywhere unless the return is heavily in their favor
And Amaro is only more likely to get stubborn with his insistence on a top prospect for Hamels.
Friedman would probably sacrifice one of these guys if he could package him with dumping Ethier and his whole contract (remember, Ethier has publicly declared he wants to play every day). Though money is low on the list of the Dodgers’ concerns, they still want to spend it wisely. Otherwise, they might have offered Lester $35 million a year knowing that the Giants were going all-out to land him.
And out of those three, Urias is the furthest from the majors, which is why I figured he’d be the most likely to be moved. If they land Hamels or Scherzer, the Dodgers would be one good late-inning reliever away from being ridiculously good.
“You apparently have to be near death to accept a one-year deal anymore.”
🙁
Hey Justin I signed a one-year deal with Boston about that same time in my career. Nobody’s calling ME dead!
Speak for yourself.
Damn, I thought about saying something and wimped out!
At least you’re not hanging out with just yourself
Kendrys Morales…um, yay? At least this removes the Michael Morse temptation.
I’m not sure there’s much of a difference, except Morse actually hit last year and Morales. Seems pretty close to a wash.
Obviously I left out the word didn’t.
You rang?
I feel happy for Santana. He overplayed his hand last year, but when that became apparent, he bet on himself and it paid off.
Is this the new normal for offseasons?
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/raising-the-dave-cameron-threat-level/
How close to red are we?
Well, the emergency podcast with Cistulli was called, so…