Adam Eaton’s Year for the Ages
I think everyone agrees the White Sox haven’t had the year they wanted. So, at present, they’re probably not too keen on celebrating individual accomplishments, but I don’t care, because I’m not them, and because I need material to write about. Therefore! Take a look at Adam Eaton’s player page. There’s something kind of weird that might jump out to you. Eaton as a regular last year was worth 3.6 WAR. Eaton as a regular this year is looking to push 5 WAR. That on its own isn’t real crazy for a 27-year-old, but look over at some other columns. Compared to last year, Eaton has hit worse. Compared to last year, Eaton has run the bases worse. Still, his value has gone up.
That’s because of his defense. What’s funny there, too, is that Eaton moved over to right field from center. So he’s handled a less-important position, but he’s been absolutely fantastic in the corner. Part of what’s happened is that Eaton has shown exceptional range. Yet that doesn’t come close to being a full explanation. You probably know that we have UZR on the site, and we also display many of its components. One of those components is ARM rating, and we have that information going back to 2002. Here are the top 10 player-seasons in ARM per 1,000 innings, for outfielders with at least 750 innings played on the grass. (As you understand, this season isn’t yet over.) (Just, be cool.)
| Player | Season | ARM/1000 |
| Juan Lagares | 2013 | 15.3 |
| Adam Eaton | 2016 | 13.2 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 2007 | 12.3 |
| Alex Rios | 2004 | 12.1 |
| Ryan Freel | 2006 | 12.1 |
| Jeff Francoeur | 2007 | 11.5 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 2005 | 11.0 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 2014 | 10.7 |
| Reed Johnson | 2006 | 10.6 |
| Juan Rivera | 2004 | 10.1 |
That should go to show you how good Eaton has been. And now, I want to show you another table. I looked at every outfielder who played at least 750 defensive innings in the outfield for two years in a row. Here are the biggest year-to-year ARM-rating improvements:
| Player | Year 1 | Year 2 | Y1 ARM/1000 | Y2 ARM/1000 | Change |
| Adam Eaton | 2015 | 2016 | -2.2 | 13.2 | 15.4 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 2004 | 2005 | -3.1 | 11.0 | 14.1 |
| David DeJesus | 2008 | 2009 | -5.1 | 7.0 | 12.1 |
| Cliff Floyd | 2004 | 2005 | -4.4 | 7.4 | 11.8 |
| Reed Johnson | 2005 | 2006 | -0.9 | 10.6 | 11.5 |
| Bryce Harper | 2015 | 2016 | -3.5 | 7.9 | 11.3 |
| Ken Griffey Jr. | 2007 | 2008 | -8.1 | 3.1 | 11.1 |
| Richard Hidalgo | 2002 | 2003 | -1.2 | 9.1 | 10.3 |
| Jose Cruz | 2002 | 2003 | 0.1 | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| Franklin Gutierrez | 2010 | 2011 | -2.7 | 6.9 | 9.6 |
If the season ended now, Eaton would officially rank first in the table. The season actually has a whole lot left — perhaps to the White Sox’ collective chagrin — but Eaton is still positioned well. He’s never had strong ARM numbers before. Now he’s having one of the best ARM seasons on record.
You don’t have to get too complicated with things. How can you explain these numbers? According to stats at Baseball-Reference, Eaton has been one of the best right fielders in terms of holding baserunners. He’s also held a lot of runners when he’s shifted over to center for occasional spells. And the thing you most closely associate with ARM rating is the outfield assist. Eaton leads all outfielders with 16 assists. Nobody else has more than 12. That kind of gap gets you a big positive number.
In the past, according to the Fan Scouting Report, Eaton wasn’t perceived to have a real strong arm. However, Eaton’s arm did eclipse 100 miles per hour on a throw in 2015. The strength was there, and it stands to reason Eaton this year has gotten more accurate. He might’ve also gotten better about his anticipation and his attack angles. This throw right here is a thing of beauty:
Of course, ARM success can also be tied to bad baserunning decisions:
…so it’s a noisy stat. Runners learn, and assists can come down to fractions of a second. There’s plenty of luck involved, to fold in with the skill. Adam Eaton might not actually have one of the most valuable arms in recent baseball history, but that arm has had a strong season. Most strong seasons are about both skill and luck.
Adam Eaton used to be a center fielder of questionable defensive adequacy. Now he’s a right fielder who looks more comfortable than perhaps any other right fielder. He’s done well to improve his angles, but even more importantly, Eaton’s arm has been playing incredibly well. It’s not close to enough to salvage the White Sox’ disappointing season, but Eaton, overall, has been among the least of their problems.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
RIP Ryan Freel. May you vaya con Dios, amigo.
Eaton had surgery on his throwing shoulder back in October, right after the 2015 season ended. I think teams have continued to operate assuming he’s the same guy he was before the surgery when the evidence by now is pretty clear that he’s throwing the ball much better, and that the surgery corrected something that was affecting his throwing.
One of his issues in center, at least based on the eye test, was getting reads off the bat on balls hit at him, something that seems like less of an issue in right in general, which is probably contributing to his range improvement. Not taking false steps out there very often.
Was it a surgery for something that had lingered?
He injured it twice last year (in July and August). Not sure if he had any issues with it before that http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/ct-adam-eaton-injured-white-sox-royals-spt-0808-20150807-story.html
He’d had elbow issues in his throwing arm before last season, but not shoulder stuff AFAIK. Stands to reason that maybe pain alleviation has a lot to do with his throwing success this year.
Miguel Cabrera had a great arm? Didn’t know that. But it seems that wasn’t enough to make him even an average defensive OF.
My team traded Adam Eaton and Tyler Skaggs, including 5 and 6 cheap years of team control, for 3 increasingly expensive years of Mark Trumbo. Turns out the Angels lied to us about the NL adopting the DH.
Another point on Eaton’s brilliant year: He leads MLB in outfield putouts, while playing 83% of innings in right field. As far as I can learn from Baseball-Reference, no right fielder has ever led MLB in putouts, at least since outfield play has been recorded by specific position. And he leads by 18% over the next guy.
Eaton also leads MLB in total zone runs. I don’t know if that’s ever been done by a RF, but I rather doubt it.