Aroldis Chapman Doesn’t Look Right
Sunday night, Rafael Devers went yard against Aroldis Chapman, even though Chapman’s fastball was recorded at nearly 103 miles per hour. It’s the fastest pitch hit out in the pitch-tracking era, which has spanned nearly a decade, and that linked article was almost obligatory. Had to write something up. Devers tagged Chapman, even though it seemed like Chapman had his best stuff.
To a certain extent, you can’t blame Chapman for what happened. He threw a lefty-on-lefty fastball, with two strikes, kind of up and in at over 100 miles per hour. That pitch should basically never go for a homer. I’m still not sure how it happened. But, ignore the homer for a moment. Pretend it was a double, or a single. Or even an out! Whatever you like. Devers made contact. Solid contact, at that. The contact is what’s strange, and there are signs of a problematic trend, here.
Let’s examine Chapman’s career, shall we? I’ve prepared three rolling-average plots, each using samples of 30 games. This first one shows the development of Chapman’s average fastball.
You could argue there’s a recent down tick, but Chapman is still regularly reaching triple digits. His fastball is fast. Still a Chapman fastball. Like we all saw with the at-bat against Devers, Chapman can still run it up there about as hard as he ever has. So, based on the velocity, Chapman seems okay. Shifting to pitch location, we can see a trend from the past year and a half or so.
Chapman has been aggressive with pitching in the zone. He’s thrown two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, and this year in particular, he’s regularly gotten ahead with the first pitches of plate appearances. And, of course, with such an unhittable fastball, why mess around? Chapman had a terrific 2016, in which he came right after his opponents. This year, he’s done much of the same. But-
That plot shows contact rate. Chapman’s present contact rate is far higher than it’s been since earlier in 2013. All of a sudden — it’s not so much that Chapman is hittable, but he’s a great deal more hittable than he’s been. Look at this table of the biggest contact-rate declines from last year, with a minimum of 30 innings:
| Pitcher | 2016 Contact% | 2017 Contact% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | 65.4% | 75.2% | 9.8% |
| Seung Hwan Oh | 65.6% | 74.4% | 8.8% |
| Matt Cain | 80.4% | 89.1% | 8.7% |
| Dustin McGowan | 69.5% | 78.0% | 8.5% |
| Junichi Tazawa | 73.5% | 82.0% | 8.5% |
| Luke Gregerson | 57.9% | 65.7% | 7.8% |
| Mychal Givens | 70.0% | 77.5% | 7.5% |
| Daniel Coulombe | 70.5% | 77.9% | 7.4% |
| Kelvin Herrera | 70.3% | 77.3% | 7.0% |
| Cole Hamels | 74.6% | 81.5% | 6.9% |
Chapman has a contact rate of 75.2%. The league-average reliever has a contact rate of 75.4%. No pitcher’s contact rate has dropped by more, and although Chapman is still mostly okay, and although this could be a blip, he was on the disabled list for a month, with a rotator-cuff problem. His contact rate has only risen since he came back. The velocity is there, and maybe that’s the most important thing, but you do have to wonder. Chapman’s been one of the most dominant relievers anyone’s ever seen. Real cracks appear to be forming.
Related to this, consider Chapman’s year-to-year ranks among all relievers in Win Probability Added:
- 2011: 24th
- 2012: 8th
- 2013: 44th
- 2014: 15th
- 2015: 16th
- 2016: 7th
- 2017: 337th
I don’t know what the issue is. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if it were linked to the injury. In that case, it would be nice to have an explanation. But even then, explanation isn’t resolution. Aroldis Chapman is allowing roughly league-average contact. He’s in the first year of the largest contract a reliever has ever signed.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Alternately describing the contact rate change as “higher,” “decline,” “dropped” and “risen” is mildly confusing.
In hindsight, you are correct!
*Two posts by Jeff displaying Chapman’s inconsistencies in one day*
The Aroldis Chapman Fan Club would like to have a word with you, Jeff. You will be hearing from us.
It’s surprising to me that Chapman has actually been throwing the highest percentage of fastballs in the zone in his career – because the eye test tells me that he’s been all over the place in terms of location.
That being said, I wonder if examining his slider might be helpful in figuring out why he has been so unsuccessful with the fastball (i.e. hitters can just sit on a fastball in the zone because they know he can’t get the slider over). Add to the fact that 100 mph out of the pen is basically the rule instead of the exception at this point (and other pitchers usually have at least one other pitch outside the fastball), and maybe hitters are just more used to seeing that kind of velocity and are more adept at picking it out.
I’m also surprised that we don’t have the fastball spin rate/movement charts, because a flat fastball – even at 103 mph – is still a flat fastball.
The ongoing curse of the Cubs. The baseball Gods didn’t take that championship lightly.
Since the velocity is still there, it has to be the command, right?
His Zone% is at an all time high (56%), maybe it’s by accident and not by design? He is getting ahead early in the count, but when needing to put hitters away, he is missing badly, leaving the ball in the middle of the plate, far too often. Look at his Heatmaps with 2-strikes.
With that comes the career worst overall contact rate you mention. Is it, the more you’re in the strike zone the more likely you are to be hit? Even for a guy with Chapman’s fastball?
Edit: His pace is at an all time high (30+ seconds). That’s nearly 4 seconds above the next highest pace. Is he laboring, like never before? Is he over compensating for the rotator cuff by using other parts of the body more stressfully than before? That could throw off the delivery and mess with the command too.
So this means Devers actually sucks! Look at that list of pitchers…nothing really special as I said.
The way the Cubs rode him in the playoffs last year it was clear they had no intention of keeping him or any concern for his future. They paid to get him and that was their time and he was game for it. Not blaming anyone. But man did he look fatigued and I had to wonder if he’d be damaged goods as a FA. Fast forward 10 months and I actually thought I was wrong and he was fine, until I read this.
Chapman: ~15 postseason innings in 2016. Previous high: 3 in 2012. ERA+ change from 2016 to 2107: 278 to 134.
Miller: ~19 postseason innings in 2016. Previous high: 7 in 2014. ERA+ change from 2016 to 2107: 309 to 282.
I’m not convinced it was the Cubs, per se, but rather the late-season run. But let’s say it was the Cubs – what did Cleveland do differently?
They traded for a reliever that was more flexible with regards to his routine/role.
(moment of silence for Matt Cain)
Anyone else notice Chapman’s odd/even pattern?
— In even years, 1.69 ERA, 0.85 WHIP.
— In odd years, 2.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP.
I’m not really claiming it means something, but it is very consistent. And it applies to all his rate stats — hits, walks, strikeouts, HRs, WPA, all notably worse in odd years. His 3 full even years each had more WPA than any of his odd years.
Looking at his stats page, I note that his K/9 has gone down three years in a row, and his BABIP this year is a career high.
Chapman stikes me as a thrower, not a pitcher. just as some are batters and not hitters. He will do fine against those batters, but with enough smarts and ability, the hitters take advantage of his mentality… that a pitching coach needs to address. The ‘why mess around” approach ain’t working long term because hitting a fast ball is 90% timing and hitting it out is 75% velo of the pitch.
Hitting it out is actually about 2% velo of the pitch.
If it were 75%, the rate of 70 mph curveballs would be much, much, much higher.