Ask the Audience: Cole Hamels or James Shields?
The Padres have had a pretty busy offseason, revamping their outfield around three right-handed sluggers in an attempt to bolster the team’s putrid offense. The pitching upgrades have been more muted, mostly limiting themselves to adding the two most similar sounding pitchers in baseball, in signing Brandon Morrow and trading for Brandon Maurer. Now, though, San Diego seems poised to make another big strike, with James Shields and Cole Hamels lingering as the two remaining fish in the pond.
Shields apparently has a strong preference to pitch on the west coast. Hamels is from San Diego and the Padres are not on his no-trade list. With both pitchers, the team has some leverage, as pretty much every other west coast team has publicly removed themselves from signing Shields, and Shields’ remaining availability gives the team an alternative to caving into Ruben Amaro’s demands. It’s not impossible that a team like the Cubs will swoop in to steal Shields, forcing the Padres to negotiate for Hamels without a safety net, but for today at least, it seems like San Diego could probably pick which path they want to go down.
Financially, the two pitchers probably won’t be dramatically different. Hamels is signed for $96 million over the next four years (or $109 million over five), while Shields is probably looking at a four year deal in the $80-$90 million range. Hamels will cost a little bit more in salary, but the difference is going to be minimal, especially if the Phillies are willing to pick up any part of Hamels’ contract in a trade. So, for A.J. Preller and his staff, the question is mostly whether they think the marginal difference in performance is worth surrendering the talent required to acquire Hamels versus forfeiting the draft pick if they signed Shields.
For reference, here are both pitchers numbers over the last three years.
| Name | IP | BB% | K% | GB% | HR/FB | LOB% | BABIP | ERA- | FIP- | xFIP- | WAR | RA9-WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Hamels | 640 | 6% | 24% | 44% | 10% | 77% | 0.293 | 81 | 85 | 87 | 12.3 | 14.1 |
| James Shields | 683 | 6% | 21% | 46% | 10% | 75% | 0.295 | 84 | 90 | 89 | 12.0 | 13.2 |
On a per-innings basis, Hamels has been slightly better, though Shields has thrown a few more innings. Hamels is two years younger and hasn’t shown the downwards trends that Shields has displayed the last few years, and his overall career track record is stronger, especially if you evaluate pitchers by runs allowed. By RA9-WAR, Hamels has been roughly +1 WAR better per season than Shields over his career; the gap is closer by FIP-WAR, but Hamels has reached the point in his career where it’s pretty clear that he’s a bit underrated by FIP.
Hamels is likely to perform better than Shields in both 2015 and beyond, but the acquisition cost appears to be significantly higher as well. So, before A.J. Preller makes his choice, I’ll put this out to you guys: which would you pick? Older and slightly worse but retain your minor leaguers, or go for broke with the better pitcher and a diminished farm system?
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
C) Pay 3/55 + a pick for Shields
I think he’s come down below 4/85 at this point
Seems exceptionally unlikely he’d get less than $50 million, still.
$70 million, I meant – wish there were edit buttons.
Padres would also have to give up the #13 pick and the international money slot associated with that if they sign Shields.
International money has nothing to do with the draft and FA compensation. They would, however, be surrendering the #13 pick and the draft pool money with it. (I’m sure Preller appreciates the team’s remarkable efforts to surge out of a protected pick in the last 10 days of the season…)
Teams can improve farm systems in a few years with a few good trades, smart drafting, and developing talent. All are things SD has proven they can pull off. SD can rebuild a farm system more easily than they can work around a limited budget in the future.
Unless the Phillies picked up a substantial part of Hamels’ contract (which they don’t seem willing to do) then Hamels will almost certainly cost more in both talent and dollars than Shields.
Before their recent moves San Diego had a team full of prospects, however ‘top’ is not how I would describe them. So few top prospects are sure things. I would go Hamels, the added benefit of him being a lefty and being more ‘marketable’ in San Diego push it over the top for me.
Depends how good the Padres farm system is, I’m assuming pretty decent. 2 years is a lot at the point where Hamels and Shields are in their respective careers.
How about both of the above?
There’s noise now that Cashner could be part of the package going back to Philly. If you package him with Hedges, Liriano and a young wildcard (Belen perhaps) and either add Quentin to the package going or get money back from the Phils, then you’ve just paid for 80% of what Shields will make in the first two years of his deal.
Cashner makes absolutely zero sense for the Phillies. Or for the Pardres to give him up.
I agree that he makes no sense for the Phillies. That doesn’t seem to change the reporting out of Philadelphia that they’re interested in him though.
In terms of giving him up, while Cashner’s upside in the next two years is probably higher than Shields’, so is his risk factor. If trading him facilitates signing Shields, you’re looking at a 2015 rotation of Hamels/Shields/Ross/Kennedy with the first three locked up for 11 or 12 player seasons. That certainly beats Ross/Cashner/Kennedy locked up for 6 player seasons as it stands today.
I would probably hold on to Hedges—Derek Norris may be the antithesis to Austin Hedges. Also I think Norris getting full time at bats looks much different than a Norris who only plays in situations when he succeeds. He is sort of like the fat chick you sext with on Snapchat then start to date full time only to realize it was much better before.
I think it’ll be a lot closer to 4/$70m for Shields at this point.
If I’m the Padres, I’ll take Hamels over Shields at 4/$85, because they don’t really have any true impact prospects left.
Huh? The Padres top 3 prospects from last year are still there. Sure, they traded away a few of the top 10-20, but the top 3-5 are still there.
They traded away 9 of the guys who fell in the range of 5-20 on most lists.
Good point. There was no need to include the word “left”!
The binary choice assumes you have to make the choice. If you don’t have the desire or ability to trade two top prospects (and RA wants more, anyway) then it’s Shields. But I don’t think I would pay RA’s price, or Shields, unless I had an excess of minor league talent I was willing to deal
Unless I get their last three years of production, showing those values in this context makes little sense. We can project (with large error bars, of course) the next 2 or 3 years of production. What a team is buying, right?
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t…
There are a lot of reasons to prefer Hamels the pitcher to Shields the pitcher, but unless Philly is eating most all of the Hamels money, trading the farm tips the scale much further in favor of Shields.
I agree that prospect are risky and they rarely pans out but so to 30+ yo sp signed to 4-5 year contract. Just look at verlander lincecum etc
This is an impossible exercise without knowing who the 2 “top prospects” are.
They are all the same, aren’t they?
Shields, only because San Diego will NEED the prospects with the money they will have on the books. If they trade for Hamels, the farm is decimated and they are only saving a bit of money. It is San Diego and even a declining Shields will play up.
In general terms, not giving up prospects > giving up prospects. But without more specifics about the asking price its tough to give an answer about a specific situation.
Both?
The numbers don’t quite line-up IMO.
Hamels is likely 5/$109 covering his age 31 through 35 seasons.
Shields is now looking at something like 4/$70 covering his age 33-36 seasons.
Assuming no money coming from the Phillies – all you are balancing is their contracts + the cost of a draft pick vs 2 top prospects. For me, it’s easy – I go after Shields. Hamels isn’t worth an extra year at $40M + the extra costs of 2 top prospects vs a draft pick.
Frankly neither are all that appealing at those prices.
I would go with Shields. My rationale is that RAJ seems to want better players than I would likely be willing to trade, whereas Shields would only cost (cash aside) an unknown draftee.
That said… I think there is a reasonable chance that Shields will cost somewhat less than 4/$85m. I would not be surprised to see Shields sign for 4/$72m or 3/$57m deal. Even with a bit of a bidding war, I don’t think teams are so blind to Shields’ limitations at this point in his career.
LEFTY BIAS
Hamels is way better and my team has prospects, so give me the Hamels.
Btw I would say both, but the Cubs basically signed LH, younger Shields in Lester.
Hamels > Shields, but prospects > picks. If either SD gives up no prospects, or the money they get back from Philly balances the potential of the prospects, then I’d go that route. If not, then I’d just settle for Shields.
I haven’t looked at the home/road splits but I would trade for Hamels not only because he is younger by 2 years but because he plays in a bandbox of a stadium. No matter where either of them go it will probably be to a team with a more pitcher friendly park (unless the Pale hose or the Rox come out of no where). As such while the stats above look pretty comparable, Shields played in a pitchers park with a pretty good outfield behind him. Hamels, played in a hitters park with a terrible outfield behind him. Hamels will be better with a better defense and pitchers park.
On the West coast? James Shields. Petco is heaven for a pitcher to get old in.
Hamels is a proven top 5 lefty.Prospects are just that.Almost all the metrics point to Hamels over a 4yr span.
The past two years the padres have picked 13th. Their selections were trey turner and hunter renfroe. Other names picked thirteenth In recent years include Chris Sale, Brandon Nimmo, Courtney Hawkins, Grant Green, and I could go on…
Nothing scientific here, but I think people are severely undervaluing the give away for the padres in relation to the draft pick vs trading for Hamels.
The top 2 prospects are RHP Matt Wisler and RH Hunter Renfroe. The Phillies are going to want Wisler for sure, he is nearly MLB ready now. Wisler and Renfroe would give the Phillies two guys who will be starting for them in 2016. The deal depends on how much you like Renfroe, I see him as more average to slightly above corner guy, other see more. I think it would be a decent not great haul for the Phillies, but probably the best one they are going to get. If the Padres are able to get it done with only one of those guys included, doubtful, it would be a huge win.
The comments here are a little surprising.
Let’s say that over the next four years, Hamels will be worth more than Shields, but not a lot more. How about Hamels will contribute 14 WAR, and Shields 11 WAR. But, at $75M per year, Shields will be $20M cheaper over those years. Are 3 WAR worth $20M? Yeah, they probably are. And even if you have the gap between them being bigger or smaller, that $20M difference is close enough, in terms of value, to offset the error bars than inherently exist around these sorts of 4-years out pitcher projections.
So we can say that these two options are equally as enticing/valuable.
Oh but wait, there’s something else to this decision. In order to open door number one, behind which James Shields is hiding, the Padres have to surrender the 13th pick in the draft, which is a not-negligible price to pay. So I’d rather have Hamels.
What’s that? Ruben Amaro wants 2 top prospects? The sort of prospects that I would hope my 13th pick will turn into a few years from now? And I have to give up two of them, just as they’re close to becoming MLB contributors?
Since 2 top prospects are worth WAY more than the 13th pick (and draft pool funds) is, the only way you can reasonably choose Hamels over Shields in this debate is by assuming that Hamels will contribute FAR MORE to a team than Shields will. They’ve basically been the same pitcher for the last four years, so hoping for a dramatic difference in value seems incredibly foolish.
They have not been ‘the same pitcher for the last four years’, and are going to be even further apart going forward as Shields is 2 years older.
By the logic of the choices, Phillies is paying for his contract. In which case, that’s a no brainer.
Reality is, it’s top 2 prospects + a shitload of money for Hamels.