Blue Jays Claim Justin Smoak
The Blue Jays have have a strong recent track record of taking failed hitters and turning them into franchise cornerstones. In 2008, they traded minor league catcher Robinzon Diaz to Pittsburgh for Jose Bautista, then watched him turn into Joey Bats. In 2009, Edwin Encarnacion was one of three players they acquired from the Reds in exchange for Scott Rolen, but they ended up having to re-sign him as a free agent after the A’s claimed him on waivers and then released him two weeks later; that move has worked out pretty well, I’d say. So now they’re trying it again, claiming Justin Smoak off waivers from the Mariners.
The Mariners put Smoak through waivers for two main reasons:
1. They had a $3.6 million option on him for 2015 that was unlikely to be exercised, so they would have had to pay a $200,000 buyout to void the final year of the contract.
2. He’s kind of terrible.
Okay, maybe point #2 is a bit of hyperbole. There are worse players in baseball than Justin Smoak, and he was a pretty decent prospect not too terribly long ago. But Justin Smoak is a remarkably slow-footed first baseman, so to be a valuable contributor in the big leagues, he needs to hit. And he just hasn’t. Over the first five years of his career, he’s posted a wRC+ of 94, putting him in the same group as Vernon Wells, Brennan Boesch, and Peter Bourjos, among others. If he could run like Bourjos or even play the outfield in a reasonable manner, he’d have some value, but as a plodding first baseman, a 94 wRC+ is basically replacement level.
In fact, that Smoak has lasted as a regular this long is kind of amazing. Over the last 50 years, 92 first baseman have been given 2,000 or more plate appearances by the end of their age-27 season; of that group, Justin Smoak ranks 89th in wRC+, ahead of only Travis Lee, Casey Kotchman, and Dan Meyer. Kotchman was an elite defensive first baseman, while Lee was a very good baserunner relative to his peers; Smoak is neither of those things, so he ranks behind both in WAR at this point of his career. Only Meyer produced fewer WAR through this point among first baseman who got this many chances, and from ages 28 to 32, he would produce another -2.0 WAR over 900 plate appearances before finally getting forcibly retired.
So, yeah, the comparisons for Justin Smoak aren’t good anymore. He had promise as a college player and minor leaguer, but he hasn’t shown enough power to justify the rest of his skillset, which essentially requires power to play in the big leagues. The good news is that Toronto is a much more friendly place to hit than Seattle, and the Blue Jays have had success with these reclamation projects before. Even if they can just get his BABIP up from the .260 to .280 range, he could be a useful part-time player.
If you have money to burn, $3.6 million to see if there’s any glimmer of hope left in Smoak isn’t the worst idea ever. The Blue Jays better not count on this working, though, because history suggests that guys who get this many chances and fail to take advantage probably aren’t worth many more chances.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I think you are missing a reference to Edwin Encarnacion in the first paragraph.
Heads up – you’ve alluded to, but haven’t directly mentioned, Edwin Encarnacion in the first paragraph.
Also, the Jays could buy out the option and negotiate a lower value contract or go through arb with Smoak.
But it is Toronto. They specialize in turning post hype prospects into stars with magic.
Look out for Smoak hitting .270 with 30 HR
and knowing the M’s track record of discarded pieces and failed prospects turning into superstars for other teams, .270 with 30 bombs seems right.
Purely out of curiosity, are there any other examples that I can’t think of other than Bautista and Encarnacion? Those two names seem to be brought up every time AA brings in another under-the-radar guy (e.g. Francisco, Valencia). Is it just random or are the Jays onto something either analytically or with their coaching staff? If it’s the latter, is it something that would carry over to their own prospects? They haven’t drafted and developed a legitimately above avg positional player in a while it seems
One of the reasons they haven’t drafted a legitimately above average position player in awhile is because they had a decent run of developed position players in the mid-late 1990s and early 2000s – Shawn Green, Shannon Stewart, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind – and many of their successes since Hill have been pitchers – i.e., Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard. They also drafted a future Hall of Famer in Roy Halladay and another of the best pitchers of our generation in Chris Carpenter.
They’ve still been good with their trades to acquire position player talent such as Brett Lawrie, Jose Reyes and Colby Rasmus through the years in addition to Joey Bats and EE.
I was always confused on why Smoak was such a highly regarded prospect (outside his draft position). He was never really that good in the minors outside of 66 PA’s in the PCL in 2010. His 2009 Texas League stint looks good at first glance but a .488 SLG from a 1B is not great (Daniel Descalso slugged .531 at the same age that season). Obviously he was drafted 11th overall for a reason but his minor league track record never showed that he was going to be any kind of star.
His swing was good and so was his plate discipline. Scouts thought his power would grow, given his frame.
For the most part the plate discipline was still there in the majors, but the hit and power tools fell short.
Seems like scouts said the same thing about Chris Parmalee with the Twins. This feels like they are gonna use Smoak to fill the void of a pending Adam Lind trade?
Scouts absolutely adored him.
“I think of Smoak as more of a switch-hitting Adrian Gonzalez.” – Keith Law (January 2009)
“Smoak projects as a middle-of-the-order run producer who can score and drive in 100 runs annually. He has the best plate discipline in the organization, and among the best in baseball, with plus raw power from both sides. He has good instincts for the game and is a solid to plus defender at first. A switch-hitting Justin Morneau.” –Kevin Goldstein (January 2010)
Apparently he had problems adjusting and with pitch recognition. I also heard of some makeup concerns and inability to bounce back after his father died a couple years ago.
I’m waiting for Jeff Sullivan’s response to this sad, sad news.
…just clearing roster space to overpay for Victor Martinez!
You can find that over on USSM
This is just the latest example of teams never ever giving up on toolsy guys with a pedigree.
Greg Golson bounced around the minors from system to system for 10 years because he was an absolute toolshed.
Toolsy? That’s funny. I don’t think anyone has ever considered Smoak a “toolshed.” Generally you need to be able to run, throw, and field a position other than 1st base to qualify for the Golson category of toolsy players.
Perhaps the word you were looking for was pedigree, of which Smoak had plenty.
I think he was viewed as a plus hit,plus power, and plus defender at his position. When I said tools I meant that the tools were there, but then numbers weren’t.
I wasn’t putting him Golsons category, but using it as hyperbole. I will put Bub a Starling in the Goals on group. Curious how long he sticks around.
Posting from a phone, maybe?
Yeah, I’m try to keep my mind active with baseball in my Torts class. Summary of class: Sue everyone and exaggerate everything!
From a scouting perspective, his swing and body just looked like it would develop massive MLB power. It was only after exposure to MLB pitching that we learned he makes poor adjustments and his swing plane is fairly inflexible.
I don’t think the Mariners are going to regret this loss.
It is really hard to say. The power is probably still there as power is rarely scouted wrong(like speed). He just can’t recognoize breaking balls. He switch hits, but can’t hit major league changeups. It is one of those things where the physical ability trumps the neurological limits at low levels. But as amjaor leaguer, You HAVE to be able to pick up spin. You HAVE to be able to see velocity differences. You HAVE to be able to adjust. And the general consensus is that a guy like Smoak just can’t.
I brought up Bubba Starling would oozes tools and athleticism, but being athletic can’t fix the brain. This is a huge difference between sports like basketball and football compared to baseball. Those sports require pure athleticism. Baseball take something else to develop. It take brain devlopement. Reaction times. Ability to see thing. ELITE hand eye cordination. This is why we don’t see guys coming out of high school or even college be able to play baseball right away
To be fair, their advice for Bautista was “swing earlier.” Unless there’s some magic, easy lesson to be had with Smoak that the M’s just missed, it looks like this could be a struggle.
“If you have money to burn, $3.6 million to see if there’s any glimmer of hope left in Smoak isn’t the worst idea ever.”
The Jays don’t have money though 🙁
Only because their owners won’t let them access to the company funds. Here’s hoping that changes this off-season.
Their payroll is already quite healthy. They shouldn’t need more than 140 MM to succeed considering the bargains they have in Bautista, Lawrie, and Encarnacion, who I think collectively make about 25 MM.
Can he play second?
The problem with the Bautista and Encarnacion comparisons is that the men who helped transform them into the players they are today – a list that includes Cito Gaston and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy – are no longer with the Blue Jays organization.
Picking up Smoak is a good, low-risk move though. I read that they can decline his $3.6M option and go to arbitration which will cost the team even less.