Catcher Aging Curves in the Mainstream
Travis Sawchick of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review is one of the more analytically oriented mainstream baseball writers you’ll find, so perhaps it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise that he penned a terrific piece looking at the Pirates upcoming decision on Russell Martin. Included in that piece is this quote from GM Neil Huntington:
“We’re in an interesting era for age curves because of the skew of performance-enhancing drugs,” Huntington said. “We are trying to re-evaluate aging curves because they were taken way out of whack because of the influence of performance-enhancing drugs.”
Jeff Zimmerman noted a similar change in aging curves last year, showing that, since the 2006 season, offensive production has followed a continuous negative slope, rather than the traditional improve-peak-decline curve of the past. Given that the effects of PEDs on energy, stamina, and fitness are more clearly proven than the effects on hitting a curveball or recognizing a pitch out of the hand, perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised that veteran players may have gotten a disproportionate advantage from the use of PEDs.
As Huntington notes, if the traditional aging curve models that were developed during the PED era no longer apply, this has some pretty significant ramifications for teams chasing free agents, especially at a position as physically demanding as the catcher spot. Last winter, I noted that the idea that catchers fall off a cliff in their early-30s was mostly a myth, but that data was based on a 30 year sample that included the heart of the “Steroid Era”, and it’s possible that using the substances that allowed catchers to play well into their mid-30s have been diminished in MLB.
As a sidebar in the piece, Sawchick included this graph:
Certainly, it seems clear that productive older catchers were far more prevalent in in the 1990-2004 period than they were before or since, but it is interesting to note how much flatter the curve is in both the supposed non-PED time periods are. In both samples, the curve actually slopes up from 32 to 33, in fact, though this is likely just an artifact of having a small number of players in the samples. Still, the relative production from 32-35 is pretty stable, and as others have shown, framing skills seem mostly immune to aging. So, while the downturn in aging curves might be bad news for a 32 year old catcher, Martin’s own skillset might be one that ages better than others.
Martin’s going to be one of the most fascinating free agents of the winter. How teams handle their own internal aging curve forecasts might very well determine where he signs.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
This will indeed be fascinating. I think its assumed that Russ won’t get paid like a 4-5 win player that has been the last 2 years (without adding his framing runs), but where he ends up is very interesting. I have been floating 4 years $60 million for months, we shall see.
I’d imagine the improvements in medicine and athletic regimens since 1989 (or even just laser eye surgery) could also have a notable influence in the results.
In his article Sawchick includes a graph that depicts on the y axis total combined games played by catchers, using the same x axis that measures the age of the catchers and the same three time eras as groups. Not surprisingly, combined games played tracks combined WAR fairly well. In the so-called steroid era, catchers aged 33 combined to play more than 5,000 games, whereas the 1980s and 2005-2014 catchers at the same age combined to play only about 3,000 games. However, the steroid era encompasses 5 more seasons than the other two groups. Granted, the strike-shorted seasons of 1994-95 are included in the 15 seasons, but the 1980s group also includes the strike-shortened 1981 season – which was essentially identical in length to the 1994 season. Moreover, the 2005-2014 group encompasses years post-expansion to 30 teams (and thus, potentially more catchers over 30 in the pool of players), whereas the steroid era encompasses some seasons before expansion to 30 teams, and the 1980s group was pre-expansion (26 teams). In sum, when one accounts for the additional five seasons that include the so-called steroid era, and the pool of available catchers perhaps increasing slightly by expansion, there isn’t an appreciable difference between production (as measured by WAR or total games played) by aging catchers in any of the three eras.
I am not persuaded by the data that Neil Huntington has “discovered” anything other than a weak excuse for suppressing individual salaries of veteran ballplayers.
Sawchick’s piece leads with “General manager Neal Huntington has said the Pirates will ‘stretch beyond normal comfort levels’ to retain Russell Martin.” But then in the rest of the piece, Huntington appears to be preparing the Pirates fan base for a decision not to sign Martin to an extension. One wonders why Huntington mentions PED use and its alleged influence on aging curves when the article is simply about whether or not to extend Russell Martin.
NH is certainly prepping some damage control in case Martin does indeed leave (which is probably likely). He has a ridiculously poorly informed fan base who is distrustful of ownership and management for not well rationalized reasons.
Good point PH. There are some people around Pittsburgh who haven’t forgiven him for “blowing up” the core of McClouth Nady, and Bay…
I agree. If Pittsburgh fails to sign Martin to an extension, and NH feels the need to inform the fans the reasons, it would be more intellectually honest to say that he was concerned about Martin’s body breaking down in light of Martin’s age, the wear and tear from catching nearly a decade in the Majors, let alone all the games he has caught in organized baseball before, and his history of injuries; and that the 2014 season, while fantastic, appears to be an outlier (offensively) when one looks at Martin’s body of work in the preceding seasons. But that’s hard to say in a sound bite, and so it’s just simpler to say PEDs and Jim Thome.
Hell, I would settle for age and “he had a ridiculously high BABIP in 2014 when compared to his career,” thus suggesting that it can’t be repeated, as a good enough reason not to sign him to a long-term contract.
He probably doesn’t want to name players or talk about Martin’s situation specifically.
I agree that he’s doing preemptive damage control for the Pirates not resigning Martin, but I also think he’s being sincere about the Pirates stretching beyond normal comfort levels to retain him. My expectation for how this will play out is that the Pirates will offer Martin something like 125% of what they estimate his production over the next 3 or 4 years to be worth, and it still won’t be enough to sign him.
I strongly believe that aging curves will radically change in the coming decade. Athletes now are coming out of high school at close to their full physical development, especially the elite ones from football-rich areas. Developed athletes like Mike Trout simply didn’t exist twenty or thirty years ago at his age. It will have less impact in baseball since it is still primarily a skill sport that takes years to master, but 20-year-olds are now arriving in baseball with athletic tools that virtually no one had in the 1980s until they had played years of pro ball.
The increasing shift toward pitching specialization at younger and younger ages has shifted that curve as well.
Catching is a completely different beast than any other position on the field, so it’s harder to tell how that position’s aging curve is affected.
How much do the new home plate collision rules factor wear and tear on catchers? Going from n collisions/season of varrying severity to none seems like a notch in the positives column for againg catchers. Doesn’t eliminate concussion risk, but takes away one of the most likely causes.
The 1980 to 1989 time period was NOT before the PED era. The PED era includes most of the 1980’s as well. Personal knowledge. Also, PED use was very very widespread during the PED era and not just confined to the players we have found out about. Many players used HGH (Human Growth Hormone) up till they started testing for it in 2013 and HGH is definitely a performance enhancing drug!! Used it and saw many players using it.