Brad Ziegler Returns to Arizona

The Arizona Diamondbacks bolstered their bullpen depth today, hours before the 4pm deadline, bringing back submariner Brad Ziegler from the Miami Marlins in return for right-handed reliever Tommy Eveld.

It sometimes feels like Brad Ziegler shouldn’t have a career. He throws 85 mph and doesn’t strike anybody out (at least relative to other pitchers), yet he has a 2.72 ERA over a decade-plus as a major leaguer. Ziegler’s firmly on the back end of his career — he’ll turn 39 during the playoffs — but it’s not like he has a fastball to lose. I’m convinced he could keep doing this until he’s 50 or so. I don’t usually go nuts over short-term season splits, but three runs allowed in his last 29 games is a darn good run, so you can make a good case that he’s found that special sorcery groove he thrives on.

Among relievers between 2008 and -18 (the range of his major-league career), Ziegler ranks second in baseball in terms of earned runs saved over what FIP suggests.

Reliever Runs Saved Over FIP, 2008-2018
Name IP ERA FIP ER over FIP
Jared Hughes 424.3 2.67 3.94 -59.9
Brad Ziegler 695.7 2.72 3.49 -59.5
Tyler Clippard 697.7 3.02 3.75 -56.6
Darren O’Day 555.0 2.56 3.47 -56.1
Santiago Casilla 583.7 3.07 3.84 -49.9
Tony Watson 500.0 2.63 3.52 -49.4
Joaquin Benoit 522.3 2.84 3.53 -40.0
J.P. Howell 453.7 2.94 3.73 -39.8
Javier Lopez 360.7 2.72 3.68 -38.5
Joe Beimel 267.0 3.27 4.47 -35.6
Joe Smith 608.7 2.99 3.50 -34.5
Tony Sipp 470.7 3.71 4.36 -34.0
Craig Breslow 533.0 3.51 4.08 -33.8
Francisco Rodriguez 592.7 3.17 3.65 -31.6
Bryan Morris 236.0 3.13 4.32 -31.2
Pat Neshek 348.0 2.69 3.49 -30.9
Dan Jennings 331.3 2.93 3.77 -30.9
Chris Perez 379.3 3.51 4.23 -30.3
Scott Downs 359.3 2.63 3.38 -29.9
Matt Albers 555.0 3.71 4.18 -29.0
Zach Britton 268.7 1.71 2.66 -28.4
Mariano Rivera 330.7 1.80 2.57 -28.3
George Kontos 355.3 3.12 3.83 -28.0
Brian Sanches 193.7 3.25 4.51 -27.1
Jeremy Affeldt 440.0 3.11 3.66 -26.9

An extreme ground-baller, Ziegler’s is at least partly tied to the quality of the infield defense behind him. The D-backs aren’t necessarily elite by that measure, but the addition of Ziegler still counts as an upgrade. Kudos to the D-backs for recognizing that, even though the bullpen has performed well so far this season from a run-prevention standpoint, there’s actually significant downside risk. No bullpen in baseball has a larger discrepancy between their seasonal ERA in 2018 and the rest-of-season ERA projected by the FanGraphs Depth Charts.

Team Relief ERAs vs. Rest of Season Projections
Team IP ERA Proj. ROS ERA Diff
D-backs 366.3 3.07 4.09 -1.02
Cubs 392.7 3.21 3.88 -0.67
Yankees 368.3 2.88 3.43 -0.55
Athletics 392.3 3.42 3.97 -0.55
Padres 419.3 3.56 4.05 -0.49
Red Sox 357.3 3.35 3.84 -0.49
Brewers 396.0 3.32 3.70 -0.38
Orioles 376.0 4.24 4.55 -0.31
Phillies 365.3 3.89 4.16 -0.27
Angels 399.7 3.87 4.13 -0.26
Nationals 334.7 3.60 3.85 -0.25
Astros 308.0 3.21 3.44 -0.23
Rangers 369.0 4.17 4.38 -0.21
Giants 391.7 3.58 3.71 -0.13
Rays 498.0 3.98 4.09 -0.11
Reds 404.7 4.11 4.22 -0.11
Tigers 369.7 4.43 4.47 -0.04
Dodgers 401.0 3.73 3.74 -0.01
Braves 364.3 4.20 3.99 0.21
Mariners 337.0 3.90 3.68 0.22
Blue Jays 386.0 4.52 4.21 0.31
White Sox 345.7 4.69 4.33 0.36
Twins 370.3 4.69 4.23 0.46
Pirates 361.7 4.23 3.75 0.48
Mets 361.7 4.73 4.24 0.49
Cardinals 365.0 4.56 4.01 0.55
Rockies 336.0 5.14 4.37 0.77
Royals 351.3 5.35 4.57 0.78
Marlins 420.0 5.08 4.24 0.84
Indians 288.7 5.05 3.72 1.33

Tommy Eveld is a tall, thin — though not in the Gumby/Sale tier — pitcher with that classic hard fastball/hard slider combo. He’s a pure relief prospect, used almost entirely that way for South Florida as an amateur. It’s hard to argue with his results so far, with a 10.3 K/9 rate against a 2.8 BB/9 and only two homers allowed in 58 1/3 innings at High-A, which is nothing to complain about in the hitter-friendly California League. He’s been a little old for his levels (he was promoted to Jackson last week), but if he continues to be successful in the high minors, he could be in the majors for the Marlins very quickly. This season would be a tad overaggressive, and Arizona was interested in an upgrade for this year’s pennant race.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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nickolai
6 years ago

Ziegler’s a GIDP machine. I look forward to watching him sling it up there well into his 40’s.