Braves Add Adam Duvall for the Long-Term(?)

Forget the intro! Let’s just get right to it. The Braves and Reds made a trade. This is what it is:

Braves get:

Reds get:

At first, it doesn’t seem like very much. Sims and Wisler might still have some name value, yes. But their stocks are diminished. And while Duvall has his uses, the Braves’ outfield is currently occupied by Ronald Acuna, Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis. Pretty good players, all of them, and we usually don’t grant much attention to additions to a bench. This doesn’t appear to be a move to dwell on for very long.

I’m not going to convince you that this is a major trade. It isn’t. But I can at least try to explain some layers. Firstly, for the Braves, this allows for something of a platoon. Duvall bats righty, and hits well against lefties. Inciarte doesn’t, and doesn’t. And by any metric you look at, Duvall is one of the better defensive left fielders around, so now with a southpaw on the mound, Duvall can handle left, with Acuna sliding over to the middle. The Braves are just improving their versatility, here. They’re addressing a minor weakness.

And then, although Duvall turns 30 in just over a month, he’s still under club control through 2021, with three years of arbitration. His wRC+ is a paltry 82, but his career mark is 96, and according to Baseball Savant’s expected wOBA metric, Duvall this year has been particularly unlucky. Markakis’ contract is up after the year. Duvall could be seen as a longer-term outfield option. This doesn’t lock the Braves into anything, but at the very least it gives them a safety net.

I don’t know how many near-30-year-olds should realistically be considered longer-term options, but Duvall’s defense has held up, which says good things about his current athleticism. And if you ask the Braves, they’re not losing anything here they had a plan for. Tucker is just a guy the Reds can use to plug into their Duvall-shaped vacancy. He’s a fourth outfielder, on his better days. Wisler has a career big-league ERA- of 129. Sims has a career big-league ERA- of 140. They’d all but been erased from the Braves’ organizational blueprint.

From the Reds’ perspective, it’s a trade for pedigree. Sims is 24, and he was once Baseball America’s No. 57 overall prospect. Wisler is 25, and he was once BA’s No. 34 overall prospect. They’ll now join previous top-100 pitching prospects like Cody Reed, Brandon Finnegan, and Robert Stephenson. To say nothing of other pitching talent the Reds have had better luck developing. Duvall had a place in Cincinnati, but not as a part of any competitive core. They’re hoping that at least one or two more young pitchers will emerge to join Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle.

Neither Sims nor Wisler has been good in the majors. The Reds might not be able to figure out why. But Sims, at least, continues to look pretty good as a Triple-A starter, and Wisler, to his credit, has improved his Triple-A contact rate by eight percentage points. For the Braves, Sims and Wisler have been disappointments. For the Reds, they’re providing a new opportunity. A change of scenery, a blank slate, a potentially whole new set of instructions. It’s a roll of the dice on two interesting arms. It’s conceivable that either or both pitchers could play a big-league role in 2019.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:
✓Ad-free browsing
✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles
✓Historical & platoon projections
✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps
✓One-click data exports
✓Customizable player-page dashboards
✓Dark & Classic site modes
✓Weekly Members-only mailbag
✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review
✓Optional homepage photo removal
✓Gift articles to non-Members
✓Full postseason coverage

The Reds need to prove they can develop pitching, because they aren’t devoid of talent. It’s the rotation(s) that’s held the Reds out of the race(s), and they want to put that behind them. The Braves are happy to let the Reds experiment, because they ran just about out of patience. A new wave of pitchers is cresting in Atlanta, so they’re not so concerned with the waves that came before. The Reds might’ve spotted a post-hype opportunity. The burden is on them to turn opportunity into value, where another club wasn’t successful.





Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

13 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
dubkent
8 years ago

All around, this trade makes sense for both sides involved. Atlanta strengthens its bench and opens a platoon opportunity, while Cincinnati gets two young pitchers as an essential flyer for the big league minimum. You have to wonder how much better Sims and Wisler will do in Great American Ballpark considering how quickly balls fly out of there.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
8 years ago

I would guess this is mostly a buy-low for next year, when Markakis is a FA. Guess we can rule out Harper to Atlanta.

Icebox
8 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I assume this is a joke? I’m not always good at spotting them.

Just in case, if Harper is unlikely to end up in Atlanta, it’s not because he’s blocked by Adam Duvall.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  Icebox

That’s not exactly what I was going for. But trading for Duvall is an indication of their future plans. No point in giving up anything of value for only a platoon bat for a third of a season.

JEdwardMember since 2016
8 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

They basically didn’t give up anything of value for Duvall. He improves the team’s flexibility this year – allowing them to put forth a better lineup against lefties and consequently adding a better bench bat for late innings in the form of either Duvall or Inciarte.

And, he provides better flexibility next year too. The team will still likely try to find a legitimate starting OF – whether that’s resigning Neck and hoping for more of this late-career magic, making a push for a big bat like Harper or Pollock, or something in between – but they will have something resembling a decent backup plan if that primary plan fails. I don’t think they want him as their starter long-term, but there are worse options.

Icebox
8 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think I see what you meant. I guess for me the virtue of this kind of deal is that it doesn’t commit them to any sort of future plan. But I digress.

Max Power
8 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

This year, Duvall will platoon with Inciarte. Next year, if they sign Harper, Duvall will platoon with Inciarte.

Kevbot034
8 years ago

I think this is a nice deal for both sides. Reds give up a guy who won’t be important to their next good team anyway, and get a couple guys who might MAKE them be good if they develop well. Braves get a shot in the arm for notable power off the bench, quality defense, and a useful platoon bat, with the added advantage of playing Acuna in CF where he will probably one day be their starter. Seems like a win all around.

v2miccaMember since 2016
8 years ago
Reply to  Kevbot034

If Pache develops his bat, Acuña will spend the majority of his Atlanta career in the corners.

JEdwardMember since 2016
8 years ago
Reply to  v2micca

Probably true if Pache doesn’t develop his bat but Waters keeps raking, too.

TKDCMember since 2016🏆 MVP
8 years ago

Preston Tucker had to go because the Braves had no use for him as he bats lefty. Duvall gives the Braves what Tucker lacked: right handedness, and better defense is a nice bonus. Sims and Wisler are guys the Braves may have had to part with due to roster-crunch anyway. With the heavy international penalties coming, it is vital for AA to not deal from our young prospect depth unless there is no other choice. We are going to need that desperately as there just won’t be that much talent coming in over the next few years (our #1 pick not signing doesn’t help either). So far, we’ve bolstered the bullpen and the bench and have given absolutely nothing of consequence. Unless we are looking at a big rotation upgrade, I see no reason to deal any of our top young prospects. Nothing else moves the needle enough.