Braves Play It Safe and Keep Nick Markakis
Everything here is always handled on a case-by-case basis, but there are certain free-agent contracts that get signed that just don’t rise to the threshold where we feel like it’s worthy of a post. Martin Perez recently signed one of those contracts with the Twins. Wilmer Flores recently signed one of those contracts with the Diamondbacks. Jordy Mercer signed one of those contracts with the Tigers. Matt Adams signed one of those contracts with the Nationals. Editorially, some moves have it, and some moves don’t. You sort of know them when you see them.
Interestingly enough, Nick Markakis has now signed one of those contracts with the Braves. Or, you’d think so, based on the terms — Markakis will make $4 million in 2019, and then there’s a $6-million club option for 2020, with a $2-million buyout. This is in that money range where we frequently ignore the transaction. But Markakis is again going to be a regular player. And he’s also coming off a year in which he made the All-Star Game for the first time in his 13-season career. It’s almost impossible to suggest the Braves aren’t getting a team-friendly deal. Markakis was evidently willing to take a discount. This just isn’t the impact move Braves fans have been looking for. It’s re-signing a 35-year-old Nick Markakis.
Markakis’ age didn’t work in his favor as a free agent. Neither did his modest power, nor his second-half decline. It always made sense that both parties might circle back, given their mutual familiarity. The Braves had a gaping hole in the outfield. They had hoped that Adam Duvall might take over in a corner, but nothing he did in 2018 went in a positive direction. They ultimately settled on Markakis, and Markakis ultimately settled on a return. He’s not going to start 162 games again, but he’ll probably come awfully close.
I don’t think it’s fair to focus on a bad second half without spending equal time focusing on a strong first half. Markakis was, overall, a good baseball player. By our calculations, he was worth 2.6 WAR. He’d been worth 3.1 WAR the previous three seasons combined. A repeat year is unlikely, but at least the Braves know the profile will remain unchanged. Markakis is one of the game’s more consistent contact hitters. He just ranked in the 77th percentile in expected wOBA, and over the past three years, he ranks in the 64th percentile in the same stat. He’s a fine hitter with limited upside beyond. He’s still a capable, if unspectacular, defender on the grass. There’s not that much necessarily separating Nick Markakis and Michael Brantley, and Brantley got $32 million from the Astros.
What Markakis doesn’t offer is star potential. He’s going to be a steady, line-drive hitter, who’ll probably experience age-related decline. Markakis plugs a hole, but he doesn’t turn right field into a strength. Braves fans are eager for a new strength, given what’s going on in their division. At least this shouldn’t close many doors.
I’ll also say that perhaps the Braves made their splash when they landed Josh Donaldson. Donaldson is, of course, a risk to get injured, but according to our Steamer/600 projections, he’s baseball’s 15th-best position player, at 4.4 projected WAR. Manny Machado‘s at 4.8. Bryce Harper’s at 4.7. Donaldson is sandwiched between Carlos Correa and Aaron Judge. He could end up being one of the most significant moves of the winter. Just because it happened a while ago doesn’t mean it isn’t still relevant.
Yet the Braves still have work to do. Markakis is one cheap answer to one question. The team payroll, though, is still a little below where it was entering the last two seasons. What this move doesn’t affect is any Braves pursuit of J.T. Realmuto. It probably makes it a little more likely the Braves pursue a reunion with Craig Kimbrel. And/or they could decide to target a starter. Re-signing Markakis isn’t the sexiest move the Braves could’ve made, but you can’t make a splash with every decision. All this effectively does is rule out Harper and A.J. Pollock.
Sometimes the easy answer is the boring answer, and sometimes the boring answer is right enough to submit. This is one thing the Braves can cross off their to-do list. That list is by no means completed.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Man things are getting really ugly. Here you have a player who is a 3X Gold Glove outfielder (2011,2014,2018), a 2018 All Star, and a 2018 Silver Slugger award winner signing for only 4$MM. unbelievable. Never would anyone have thought it would get this bad…….a right fielder who put up 2.6 fWAR and 3.4 bWAR last year will only cost $4M and zero prospects in 2019? insane
I completely agree…with your first sentence.
Nick Markakis seems like a good dude, and I wouldn’t begrudge him getting more from somebody, but this will be a massive disappointment for analytically-inclined Braves fans if it’s the only thing they do to address RF in the midst of a big NL East arms race.
And don’t forget, his big payday was the four-year deal he signed before this one. He got a shot at free agency at a time when he had some upside left. This isn’t the bellwether you think it is.
In all honesty though, Markakis is a decent fit for the baby Braves still, I believe. He’s not going to be a 2.6 WAR guy again, most certainly, but you have improved significantly at 3b and LF (by virtue of that amazing kid playing all year) already. Markakis will keep getting some hits and drawing some walks and (not) reaching some fly balls. He’s boring, but if you get another 1.5-2.0 WAR, it isn’t a black hole and he’s dirt cheap. He’s also not blocking anyone on that deal. Who knows how his clubhouse leadership impacts the youngsters (can’t be measured), but stuff like that is useful still. Never expected to rant this much about Nick Markakis, sorry. Just move along…
I don’t disagree with any of these specifics. But the Braves should aspire to something more than “not a black hole,” especially since they seem to have the resources (in both cash and prospects) to take a damn shot at it , at least.
That’s fair, but I’m not sure this really impacts that at all. If they trade or sign someone, I don’t see him blocking them, and he slots into a a backup RF/LF easily enough with Acuna the backup CF. I don’t know, I get feeling disappointed with a small move, but it fills a hole with competence, however short.
Plus, while I get the fan frustration (it’s been a boring offseason), I don’t see the urgency for the Braves to spend lots more of those dollars and prospects on position-player upgrades this year. The aging curve is going to provide them with all the upgrading they need. If I were the Braves and I wanted to push more chips in on 2019 — which isn’t even something I’m convinced they ought to do, strategically — I’d be doing it on the pitching side.
From 2015-2017, across 2000+ PAs, Markakis was a 99 wrc+ player.
From June 1 through season-end 2018, across another 450 PAs, Markakis was a 99 wrc+ player.
That doesn’t mean that a strong April and May don’t count.
But if one hasto estimate how he hits next year, as a 35 year old, it wouldn’t be for something *greater* than a league average hitter. Silver Slugger notwithstanding.
And while I am happy for him he has those Gold Gloves for his trophy room, he’s also graded out as a negative defender pretty consistently on both DRS and UZR – as a corner OF.
I don’t think this is a bad deal for ATL by any stretch. But, particularly in light of the “he took less to stay here” comment that was linked to above, I hardly think this is some referendum on the state of contemporary free agency.
Unless, of course, you have a narrative and you’re willing to jam a story into it facts be damned.
You wouldn’t be the first.
Also – while it’s perhaps technically correct that he’s “signing for only 4$MM”, I don’t think that’s the best kind of correct.
In deals like these I think it’s more instructive to think of it as a 1x$6M contract with a 1x$4M club option to follow. Even if the timing of the latter $2M is deferred a year, it is guaranteed.
IE, there is no circumstance under which Markakis gets “only” that $4M.
For my money, this wasn’t even the biggest bargain/surprise of the day. If Asdrubal can play 2B or even 3B passably, the Rangers did quite well for themselves.
I think this Markakis deal probably serves as a reasonable template for an Adam Jones deal. Maybe even a little more than what Jones could command. Unfortunately, I don’t get the sense that Jones sees it that way. (And given that he’s a 5x All-Star, I suspect The Guru may not either).
Was he an all star last year and silver slugger and gold glove last year? That’s what I thought.
You can try to spin it how ever you want but I didn’t make up the 2.6 and 3.4 war calcs. That’s what he put up LAST YEAR and he getting paid 4$mm. Add in a gold glove. Just crazy.
none of us will know if it’s crazy or not until Markakis plays the games.
this crap about a gold glove is absurd. he’s never played more than an average right field, to be generous. catching all the fly balls hit close to where you’re standing doth not a good outfielder make.
Markakis played the most games in RF last season and made the most putouts.
he showed up for work every day and made all the expected plays.
only this and nothing more
Right, this is obviously a below-market deal, even in this current free agent environment. This is a more a story of a 35 year old knowing his career is winding down and making decisions about something other than money. Nice enough for the Braves, though I can understand if fans are a bit disappointed if they go quiet after this.
Here’s something that’s lost in a Fangraphs-analytical analysis about Markakis which is absolutely insane to me, and something I can’t believe doesn’t get more coverage:
Markakis has always been an extremely durable player. Other than when he was injured in 2012, he has played in at least 155 games every year since 2007. Older players get injured more, sure, but he has a long and unbroken history of being good to go basically every single day. Let’s assume, hypothetically, that Markakis can stay healthy for a few more years. Not an unreasonable assumption. Let’s just assume, for the sake of this hypothetical, that he manages to stay healthy and play full time through his age 39 season, and then retires just before he turns 40. It’s maybe not the most likely scenario, but it’s at least plausible, certainly.
Let’s throw out his 2018; it was a better year than he’d had in a while, and let’s just assume it was a blip. In 2016, he had 161 hits. In 2017, he had 163 hits. Let’s split the baby and say he averages 162 hits per season from here on out. He had 185 last year, and 181 in 2015, so 162 isn’t terribly unreasonable, even if it is maybe a high-end estimate.
Given these optimistic but not completely beyond-the-pale assumptions… Nick Markakis would retire with 3,047 hits.
3000 hits has always been an automatic ticket to the Hall of Fame, unless you’re associated with PED’s. Every single eligible player with over 3,000 hits is in the Hall of Fame, except Raphael Palmeiro (I expect Alex Rodriguez to be another exception in a couple of years when he’s eligible). Even players with marginal Hall of Fame cases who got over 3,000 hits made it in (Lou Brock, for example). The Hall twice dodged a bullet on having to assess whether marginal players who wouldn’t get any support absent 3,000 hits should get support, once by Doc Cramer being blocked from a starting job for a few years as a young player, and again when people stopped giving Johnny Damon contracts. If Markakis were to get to 3,000 hits, he would fall roughly between those two — significantly worse than Damon, significantly better than Cramer — but what in the world would happen with his Hall of Fame case? He’s clearly not worthy, but 3,000 hits (like 300 wins) has always been automatic for induction… I’m genuinely curious.
No chance.
He’d have a stronger case than Harold Baines
Especially if one or two of those hits happened at the right moment in Braves playoff run… Narratives can change quickly.
After reading the first two sentences, I thought this would be a joke commenting on the absurdity of GG and SS.
Its 6 mill and the only conspiracy theory that exists is in your head – You are NO longer payed for past trophies/accolades in todays MLB, get use to it
You no longer get paid for what you did in the past. You also don’t get paid for what you’re going to do in the future. Nice time to be an owner, eh?
You look like you need some support. He must be the first player who had a 3.4bWAR the previous season to sign for such an amount. Even Chris Young got $6.5M from the Red Sox in both 2016-2017 for about 0 bWAR. It is astonishing to watch what is happening.
Point well taken regarding “one cheap answer to one question,” and I don’t doubt there’s some value in that. But this feels like a big missed opportunity, given that the potential “overpays” (which has been the team’s line on other FA OFs) have hardly been budget-breakers.
Seems to me that the lesson to learn from the last few years is that there’s no such thing as too much talent, and a “that’ll do” approach, content to make do with low-upside veteran stop-gaps, just isn’t likely to move the needle.
Well. That and 15 teams that are tanking rather spend the league minimum on a lotto ticket than an mlb regular. Spots for older FAs are disappearing and as a result so is their market demand
Which teams are those that are tanking? Let’s be specific. For the record.
Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Texas, Seattle, Florida. Hardly 15.
The count to those 3k hits is on <3
Rooting for ya, Nick! lol
The issue is the starter or reliever they may sign isn’t going to help them score runs. Even with Donaldson, this team has 5 everyday players projected for a wRC+ from 87-103. Four everyday players with sub .150 ISOs. Thats 10% of the entire league’s qualified population of sub .150 players on one team. The largest opportunity to improve the lineup is now spent. Any consideration of the value of this deal has to consider that opportunity cost.
Man, I strongly disagree with the idea that there isn’t that much separating Nick Markakis from Michael Brantley. Michael Brantley has been a good hitter for years, including last year. Nick Markakis had a good first half last year, and then the last time he was good before that was 2012. Michael Brantley is an adequate starter on a playoff team, perhaps much better than adequate; Nick Markakis the guy you sign when you already blew your much of your budget on Josh Donaldson and are worried that Adam Duvall is permanently broken.
This looks like a totally fair deal from here. How many teams are willing to bid more to get a 1-WAR player back in the corner outfield?
If you are going to talk about the points where Brantley was better than Markakis then you need to be fair and balanced enough to point out the opposite as well. How many more games over the last few years has Markakis played than Brantley?
I would gladly take 1.5 war in 90 games over 0.5 war in 160 games and so should you.
There is a reason why Markakis projected for 0.9 war while Brantley is projected for 2.0.
I can do that: The best thing about Nick Markakis is that as an extremely durable backup-level player, Markakis can serve as his own backup.
Came here to say this. Brantley was coming off an injury, and even looked hesitant earlier on. While he is bad at defense as well, I personally think he is going to DH vs RHP a lot, and play left vs lefty to ease Tucker into PT. He is very heady, and I think would be one of those guys whose better as a DH. I think last year is closer to his floor than his ceiling.
His FANS proj was boring but his consistency fascinating. Dude plays every game.
For just 4 million bucks, Braves fans get at least one more year to enjoy a future Hall of Famer (Today’s Game Committee selection). What’s not to like?
Hey, that guy’s not a….
(Remembers Harold Baines)
Right you are good sir!
$6M per projected win seems to be the going rate for veterans on short term deals this year. Let’s not forget the human element. Markakis has over $100M career earnings and he moved to Atlanta just as his kids were starting school. If he and his family like Atlanta, why move for a couple of million more, assuming that offer was even available?
He’s from Woodstock, too.
I look at this as more of a depth piece. Or maybe a David Ross grandpa/veteran role. I sincerely hope they have bigger plans for right field.
Based on what Anthopoulos said today, sounds like he’s going to be starting in a corner and hitting fifth.
Most of Braves Country is literally FREAKING OUT. The fact that the Braves came out of the pits of a rebuild a year early and made it to the NLDS has unrealistically raised us Braves fan’s expectations. I’m not thrilled about Markakis trotting out to RF at Sun Trust Park on opening day, but I’m not blaming Anthopolus either. IMO, this was just one of those years where the Market just didn’t line up with one of our needs.
Yes Brantley was an option, but did anyone ever consider that he may have WANTED to play in Houston? I mean money is money, but you can’t expect AA to get in a bidding war for Michael Brantley.
Pollock has had one year. One season of excellent value. And he wants $20MM?? No way.
Theirs other vets who could have done essentially the same as Markakis in Curtis Granderson and Adam Jones, but I guarantee not for $4MM…
So it’s disappointing in the sense that this is what was available on the Market, but not a bad move by AA. And it’s reported that the Braves still have around $20MM to play with, so I’m thinking AA will make an upgrade at starting-pitcher. Or maybe even Kimbrel!! ?
In all honesty, Adam Jones is probably really not any better even. If you aren’t breaking bank for a certain left handed RF, there weren’t many other options.
Adam Jones wouldn’t of taken 4mm, and he is not very good. But Granderson would likely be looking at that range.
Is “a mildly bad deal for both sides” a thing? Markakis gets less money than he could have got and the Braves miss an opportunity to improve. It’s not bad for either of them, but really think the Braves are playing it too safe here.
Without context, this may seem like a simple, safe, even sensible move by the Braves. But to the fan base that stuck with them through the rebuild and their promises of a future competitive window, this is a kick in the teeth.
The Braves were a surprise contender last year. And they reached that contention status by a combination of their own players over-achieving for stretches, and division rivals largely under-performing their projections. With signing on Markakis as the everyday right fielder, AA has shown his indication that he is willing to pursue that strategy again.
Even with the Donaldson and McCann signings, the Braves salary is below what it has been for the past two years. In what is supposed to be the onset of their competitive window, the Braves have elected to invest less in the on field product than during their rebuild. If that isn’t a giant f*** you to the fans, I’m not sure what a front office has to do (short of becoming the Marlins front office)
What is particularly galling to me is that fact that there are plenty of outfield upgrades available that don’t require Harper level financial investment. The Braves are currently flush with both prospect and financial capital, yet have elected to use neither in the improvement of the major league squad.
This move reminds me of another seemingly dumbfounded signing last year by the Red Sox, where they renewed Mitch Moreland to play first base after a less-than-stellar season of team ball. How boring is that guy? He also did nothing with that contract so far, so it’s still a bonehead deal. However, perhaps he was a piece the Sox needed to fit at first base (defense? leadership?) so that the rest of the team could try and win that championship.
Maybe Markakis is that kind of guy and maybe Braves management thinks they have a shot at the World Series with their roster one year older. I agree that they need to pick up some more important pieces, but with Markakis’ stability maybe he’s just good enough to help the team push itself further.
Mitch Moreland was supposed to team up with Hanley Ramirez and JD Martinez to create a three-headed 1B/DH/OF thing that would give the outfielders a day off every now and then, take advantage of platoons. Of course, Hanley Ramirez turned out to be bad at baseball now, and the Red Sox decided they’d rather play with a 24-man roster rather than expose Swihart to waivers, and then the logjam cleared up and they found Steve Pearce who somehow stayed healthy long enough to destroy all hitters.
So it didn’t work out exactly as planned, but there’s a similar theory here to what you are arguing: It’s a low-cost signing that tries to avoid having a “replacement-level killer” on the roster. Nick Markakis, like Mitch Moreland, is still very likely a major leaguer. It might be disappointing but there is some logic to it. Whether it will work out for the Braves is still unclear…it sure seems like paying up for Michael Brantley was still a better idea.
I’m not seeing how signing a 35 yo below average player is “safe”. He could easily crater at his age and talent level. Cheap maybe. Low upside probably. But high floor? I’m not seeing that.
It’s “safe”, beacuse what do you risk? $4M this season and $2M next year. In today’s baseball – peanuts.
Actually the biggest problem I have with that signing is lost opportunity. Braves haven’t made theirselves better, and they needed it.
Financially, it is not a risk. The risk is that AA will use this move to preclude pursuing other options for the outfield unless Markakis absolutely craters to start the 2019 season, by which point options for replacement will be significantly more limited. And Markakis posting a sub 100 wRC+ while offering terrible defense as an everyday player is completely on the table right now. For a team ostensibly attempting to compete you are taking a huge risk that the rest of the team will play well enough to drag his carcass along for 162 games.
It really isn’t a lost opportunity though. With that contract, he isnt’t blocking any other signings. And with the MiLB in tact still, they can trade for an upgrade and remain not committed to playing him with that amount of money.
As v2micca has said – signing Markakis has lessened intensity of seekig new solution. Hey, we have our RF and we are fine with him.
Yes, should Markakis fail they could replace him in June or July, but if so they would lose production from RF for half of the season.
OK, let’s try another way. Markakis is probably 1 WAR player at this moment of his career. I think getting 2 WAR player was possible. So Braves just thrown away 1 win. Maybe they could make it up by spending freed money on pitching – fielders look like they are set. Maybe.
Which 2 WAR RF were you going to get, though? The market is small right now. If you don’t go get Harper, there isn’t anything worth it too much. Markakis is comparable to Granderson and Jones and he’ll do it a lot cheaper.
Pollock was on the Market at the time and has reportedly signed with the Dodgers for 4 year and 50 million guaranteed. (5th year option with a 5 million dollar buy out) Projection on him are 2.6 fWAR for the season, and at age 31, he has more upside for the 2019 season than Markakis.
After LAD have signed Pollock Pederson looks to be available. Platooned with Duvall he would easily be even 3 WAR player, I think.
$4 mil it’s a nice deal for the braves.
Has anyone considered this just might have something to do with Christian Pache? Top 10 outfield prospect and rated as best defender in minor league baseball? Braves will upgrade their outfield next year when he is in the starting lineup, and, will hopefully use their remaining payroll to address their rotation and bullpen this season.
The march to 3000 continues!