Congratulations/Sorry, Josh Harrison
Josh Harrison leads the majors in times getting hit by a pitch. He led the majors in April, and after a down month in May, he’s led the majors since the start of June. In June itself, Harrison was hit 10 times, which is tied for the second-most for any player in any month in baseball history. Back in April, Harrison got hit four times in a row. Harrison has nearly as many hit-by-pitches as walks, which is both good and bad, I suppose. Harrison is sitting on a career-best OBP.
Usually, when we’ve talked about hit-by-pitches, we’ve been talking about Brandon Guyer. It is, technically, a skill that some hitters can possess, typically because of their stances. The twist for Harrison is that he hasn’t been a pitch magnet in the past. He’s been drilled 20 times this season. He was drilled 26 times before this season. Shown in graphical form:
That’s a leap forward this season, depending on what your definition of “forward” is. Here now is a plot of Harrison’s career hit-by-pitches, separated by year:
The evidence suggests that Harrison has moved a little closer to the plate. Which, yeah; I can’t come up with any reasonable alternative explanation. He’s standing a little closer, and he closes himself off with his front leg. By which I mean, Harrison raises his leg with a standard kick, and then he steps forward in the box. He’s standing closer to the plate, and then he steps closer to the plate. This is where hit-by-pitches come from, since it’s not like there is just a sudden rash of opposing pitchers who are holding a Josh Harrison-specific grudge.
Here’s the kicker. Harrison, a year ago, was hit in about 1% of his plate appearances. Harrison, this year, has been hit in about 5% of his plate appearances. That seems like a big increase, but how much of an increase is it, really? I went all the way back to 1900. I looked at every player who’s ever batted at least 250 times in consecutive seasons. Here are the biggest year-to-year jumps in HBP%:
| Player | Year 1 | Year 2 | Y1 HBP% | Y2 HBP% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Harrison | 2016 | 2017 | 1.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% |
| F.P. Santangelo | 1996 | 1997 | 2.4% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| Dave Altizer | 1908 | 1909 | 0.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| George Burns | 1923 | 1924 | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Jack Barry | 1915 | 1916 | 1.5% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
| Kelly Shoppach | 2008 | 2009 | 2.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% |
| Brandon Guyer | 2015 | 2016 | 6.2% | 9.0% | 2.8% |
| Devin Mesoraco | 2013 | 2014 | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Josh Phelps | 2002 | 2003 | 1.0% | 3.8% | 2.7% |
| Bill Freehan | 1966 | 1967 | 0.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% |
Okay then. For now, No. 1, and by a full percentage point over F.P. Santangelo. There’s more season to play, so Harrison isn’t totally locked in here, but as he plays in more games, he’s likely to get hit by more pitches. I’m sorry, Josh Harrison. I’m sorry for the painful, helpful free bases. Although I guess it’s as much Harrison’s fault as anyone else’s. To this point, he’s refused to back off.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
Moving closer to the plate is probably the biggest help/detriment to getting more HBP, but I think another (and more skill oriented) adjustment that players can make is to stop instinctually trying to move away from inside pitches. While umpires are free to call a HBP not one because the batter failed to get out of the pitch’s way, I think/recall only seeing that happen once.
I imagine it’s hard for any tracking system to determine how much a player moves away on inside pitches. Still, if there’s a skill to be taught, it’s for players to suck it up more and take inside pitches off the body for the free base. that said, I suppose there’s an argument to be made in the era of spike in homeruns that players with power (not really Harrison) shouldn’t just “concede” an at-bat to a HBP.
Jason Kendall wasn’t awarded 1B after a HBP once. He was furious. He was always furious, though.
Colonel Jessup, did you order the code red on F.P. Santangelo!?!
To me “F.P. Santangelo” sounds like a chain restaurant that claims to be vaguely Italian but really has one of those giant corporate menus in an old-timey font full of burgers and pizzas and fried chicken and whatever else that ensures everyone in the family gets exactly what they prefer to eat at home, served by acne-d teenagers and dead-eyed 30-somethings covered in pins and buttons who once an hour are required to gather somewhere in the restaurant and sing a song.
The fact that I could clearly imagine this without issue is vaguely disturbing to me.
Jeez. You put a player’s name in an Instagraphs headline like that days before the trade deadline, you’re going to get a lot of anxious clicks… wait, that’s part of the devious plan here, isn’t it?
Because HBP is not on the top of a player’s page, (and because I’m used to dismissing them as relatively rare,) I could imagine being really confused at how Brandon Guyer managed an OBP of .372 last year with a BA of .266 and a 5.5% walk rate.
He had a 5.5% walk rate and a 14.5% BB+HBP rate. Oh my god.
Marte is another one who has consistently had high hbp rates, although not in Guyer territory. It really has supplemented his poor BB rate.
Is it possible that by standing closer to the plate, he is better able to hit outside pitches, and so pitchers aren’t throwing outside as much as they used to? Thus he’s seeing more inside pitches than he used to.
From the few Pirates games I’ve watched, it seems as if pitchers are routinely throwing fastballs low and in to Harrison, and in the instances he’s been hit, it’s usually been in the legs.
Granted, the picture above shows that his HBPs have been spread all over his body, but at least that’s what I’ve seen anecdotally.
What if, and hear me out… You get all the highest HBP guys at each position and put them on one team. You’d 1) have a great obp and 2) probably get opposing pitchers thrown out of the game all the time for hitting too many guys, which made it seem like they were headhunting. Market inefficiency!
And weekly injuries to your starting lineup.