Cubs Swap Luis Valbuena for Dexter Fowler
For the last year or so, people have been asking what the Cubs are going to do with all these infielders. A trade, or several trades, has always seemed likely, so perhaps we shouldn’t be too surprised that the Cubs shipped Luis Valbuena to the Astros in exchange for Dexter Fowler and Dan Straily.
Valbuena and Fowler are somewhat similar players, as both draw a lot of walks and have average power, making them slightly above average hitters. Fowler’s a better baserunner, while Valbuena’s a better defender, but the overall packages are similar, and both project to be roughly league average players in 2015. The Astros are getting two years of Valbuena’s services in exchange for one of Fowler, though, which is why they added Straily as a sweetener making it a little strange that Chicago had to throw in Straily as well. This seems like a nice deal for Houston, given that they probably don’t get any worse and cut $4 million from their payroll, plus pick up a 2016 asset.
For the Cubs, they get to arrange their assets a bit more optimally, as Valbuena was blocking Kris Bryant’s path to the big leagues. Assuming Bryant will be on the team on May 1st, an OF is better for Chicago than infield depth, so making this swap now gives them a chance to avoid a roster crunch a month into the season. And they also get a chance to sign Fowler beyond 2015 if they so desire, so perhaps this isn’t a pure rental for them either.
This seems like a better deal for Houston, but it makes sense for Chicago as well, given their backlog of infield talents. If Bryant is what people expect him to be, no one will miss Valbuena for very long.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Straily went to the Astros….
Dave – Straily went from the Cubs to the Astros, not the other way around.
Isn’t Straily going to Houston?
Thanks for the correction, guys. Baby + Scherzer news = writing without thinking…
So did Scherzer go to the Cubs as well with Baby to the Astros? Or vice versa?
And congrats
Nobody puts baby in the corner (outfield).
The Astros are getting Straily as well.
Dave, Straily was traded to Houston not from Houston.
oops was already caught. Ignore.
Also, the Astros are getting Straily
CF in Houston seems to be more challenging than CF in Chicago. How much does that change Fowler’s value.
I’d guess the big issue with CF at Wrigley is the mental side of playing the brick wall. The wind can be tricky too.
From a Cubs’ fan perspective, meh. I didn’t really like this when it was rumored, and I’m not thrilled with it now that it’s real. It’s not bad, it’s just … meh. I’d rather have dipped into that absurd pile of prospects to add the position player we still needed than shuffle around MLB parts.
Valbuena was our best opening day option at 3b, and the best option to take over 2b if/when Baez whiffs himself back to Des Moines. Bryant is still just as likely a LF as a 3b.
I agree, I don’t really get this either from Cubs perspective.
The only thing that makes sense to me is to look at this from a batting lineup construction versus defensive positioning perspective. The Cubs did not have a lead-off type bat (on base + speed) in their line-up construction and this kind of fills that need.
Fowler has the best career OBP on the Cubs roster that finished last in OBP in 2014. He is the only lead off hitter and only true CF on the team and in the organization. He is by far the best option for the Cubs in both of those roles. All for a 28 year old replacement level 3B. And he will be replaced by Bryant who is our best option at 3B. Bryant plays well enough there defensively too. The concern is if his frame will hurt him at 3B long term or if he’d use too much energy bending over so far for ground balls everyday that his hitting would suffer. As he adds muscle mass he may be less fluid fielding grounders in the hole also. Those fears are legitimate but the Cubs will give him a chance to fail at 3B first before LF. Plus it adds flexibility to Baez/AA roles and the Cubs get draft pick compensation if they let Fowler walk. Win win for both teams and the Cubs dealt from strength to improve their biggest weaknesses heading into ’15.
If you mean “replacement level” as in the baseline for WAR; no. If you mean “replacement level” as in league-average, as it is sometimes used, that’s not far off — Valbuena was 12 out of 24 qualified 3B in 2014 by WAR.
Fowler, of course, was closer to WAR “replacement level” in 2014, and was 17/20 qualified CF in 2014 by WAR. He’s also hardly a “true CF,” given that his career UZR/150 clocks in at 41/43 qualified CF between 2009 and 2014.
As an Astros fan, I like this deal. Third has been a black hole of terribleness, and outfield is a position of depth. A platoon might make sense due to Valbuena’s splits against lefties and Matty D’s against righties. This is a good deal for Houston with the potential for great if Marisnick and Grossman deliver in the outfield.
Awesome analysis, Dave!
I reblogged this on my site for Advanced Baseball Analytics
This is more tangential to the deal, but is there any material out there comparing UZR with the Inside Edge data? To use an example, take Fowler(universally loathed by UZR and DRS, largely because of range) and Lagares(universally beloved by UZR and DRS, largely because of range). There’s a supposed 4-win gap between them defensively, yet their Inside Edge percentages are an uncanny match. Fowler may even have a slight edge actually. Is that just an (extreme) outlier?
I don’t really understand the deal from the Cubs perspective. Fowler will cost about $7M more and has one less year of control for players that are nearly identical in projected WAR from Zips. The add-in of Straily makes it even more confusing to me. To me it would have made more sense to go after Rasmus for a 1 year deal, overall the cost would have been about the same.
Love this trade for the Cubs, as Fowler in CF should allow Joe Maddon to use Arismendy Alcantara as his Ben Zobrist-type utility knife, and/or makes Alcantara available to take over 2B if Baez flames out. Also, Dan Straily isn’t good.
Valbuena ideally wasn’t going to have a lineup spot in May, why wild they try to find him and mendy a spot in the lineup? This brings a lot of clarity and there isn’t a much anticipated OF help coming anyway. I’m not sure at all why people dontkke this deal. Because valbuena had one good year and Was useful for two?
Cubs can essentially flip Fowler for a 2016 1st round compensation pick if he receives a qualifying offer.
Fowler would be a real close call on a QO. Guys like longer-term certainty, but if he meets his projection (which is inline with this past year’s performance) he’d be worth something like $12M on the open market given an $8M/win price next year. The QO will likely be >$15M, which may be greater enough than his actual market price to warrant biting. Especially if you consider how much the QO has been shown to tank the market for this type of fringey player.
Of course, he could meet his career-high 2.3 WAR and feel he’s worth something closer to $20M/year for 2016-on. Even then, though, it’s an awfully close call.
I can’t imagine Fowler receiving a QO. (Or declining it, in the way, way off-chance that he’s afforded one.)
Obviously, you know nothing. QO achieved.
So you’re the Cubs. You have an embarrassment of position player prospects, a decent 2b/3b that you can trade for whatever you might need. A bit short of pitching prospects, but you can trade for those with your extra position players.
You get an average-ish OF for the infielder. Nice.
Then you toss in a pitching prospect? You NEED pitching and you throw one in in an otherwise equitable trade? This trade makes so much sense if the Cubs were GETTING Straily.
If your little brother made this trade, you’d call him a bad name.
So if you fantasy players make a bonehead move during the season, take heart. Theo Epstein & Billy Bean screw up, too, and they do this for a living.
Dave, when can we expect the article dissecting Fowler’s CF defense, and whether or not we can expect any improvement simply by moving to Wrigley?