Cubs Win the Jon Lester Sweepstakes
After a very long courtship, Jon Lester has decided to pitch for the Chicago Cubs.
Jon Lester, Cubs agree on six-year, $155M deal, sources tell Yahoo Sports. Red Sox are runners-up. Their final bid: six for $135M.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 10, 2014
Passan also adds that the Giants were willing to stretch to $168 million over seven years, so Lester took a slightly smaller total guarantee from Chicago. Lester immediately becomes the Cubs ace, and along with the addition of Miguel Montero earlier today, signals to the rest of the National League Central that the Cubs are moving up their window to win.
We’ll have a full-write up on this deal in a bit, but for now, let me encourage you to read the things that we’ve already published on Lester this week.
How Much to Believe in Jon Lester’s 2014, by Jeff Sullivan.
How Will Jon Lester Age?, by Tony Blengino.
Lester’s one of the best pitchers in the game, and he’s now getting paid like it. Whether the Cubs can improve the rest of their roster enough to make this deal pay off remains to be seen, but a team with a strong future suddenly has a much stronger present.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I think Cubs next move is to sign Brandon McCarthy. Maybe add a cheaper bullpen arm and call it an off season. Gonna be fun on the North Side for a long time.
McCarthy seems like a bad fit with his gopher-itis.
Justin Masterson, maybe?
They will win the World Series by 2020
Cubs offered significantly more when you take taxes into account between Ca. and Illinois.
Excellent point, I think many people (me certainly included) often forget to take taxes into account when comparing different teams’ offers.
Jesus, now that I realize that, all of his talk about other things being more important than just who the highest bidder was suddenly seems pretty hollow.
I’m not sure how exactly it would change the numbers, but athletes fall under what’s called the jock tax. Lester will pay tax according to the rates in Illinois only for the games he plays there. He will pay tax according to the rates in other states when he plays in those states for away games.
That would actually, without going through the whole schedule and individually calculating things, seem to favor the cubs even more. Not only are the Giants’ home games in CA, but 2 of his divisional opponents are in CA.
The difference in top rates is 8.3%. So even if the Cubs played every game in Illinois and the Giants played every game in California, the Giants would only need to offer an extra $12.8 million over the life of the deal to even things out. But because there is a lot of overlap in where the games are played the difference is of course much less than $12.8 million. The state tax issue tends to be seriously overplayed, and the Cubs certainly were not offering “significantly more” if the Giants $168 million offer is to be believed (Sabean has denied it).
The 2015 Chicago Cubs are an above-average team on paper.
Trading for Cole Hamels is looking better and better.
Not at all.
I’d definitely be happier having Lester for 6 years at $25M a year and keeping my Baez/Russell/Schwarber/whomever….than I would be having to give one or more of those guys up to have Hamels for 4 years at $25M a year.
I disagree if it involves unloading Starlin Castro in some way. Castro is over-valued and his performance can more easily be replaced. Hamels would make it one of the better rotations in the game.
At some point, if they feel its prudent, the Cubs will trade from the farm. That type of deal probably isnt on the card for the 2015 season unless they internally don’t like one of them and want to get the most for them before they become exposed and their value tanks.
Now that Lester (not to mention Hammel) is signed, you can probably take out a Cole Hamels deal. Putting alot of eggs into this season when you are, as one commenter said, “an above average team on paper” isn’t Theo/Jed’s MO. If they want sustained success, they won’t risk handcuffing themselves by making all the moves they can now.
Castro is overvalued? What in the seven hells are you talking about?
2015 salary = $6M
2016 salary = $7M
2017 salary = $9M
2018 salary = $10M
2019 salary = $11M
2020 is a club option for $16M or $1M buyout.
I see a guy who is very likely going to be above average in terms of production from SS….and below market value in terms of salary….for the remainder of this decade. Why exactly would the Cubs deal him?
Boom! Right on Vic.
.500 team as of now? That’s about what I have them at. I’m guessing they’ll make a few more FA signings, maybe even 1 more big one. Can definitely see them fighting for the playoffs this year. If any of their young guys take off, they win the division.
Team depth charts don’t include Bryant’s 4 WAR. That plus the recent signings makes the Cubs close to a 90 win team.
Assuming Bryant is going to put up 4 WAR as a rookie is pretty optimistic.
They certainly COULD win the NL Central, but right now, they are at most the third best team in the division. The Pirates have the best player in the NL, and have a solid core around him with Walker, Marte, Cole and Liriano(who has put up better numbers than Lester recently(albeit in 50 or so less innings with some pitching prospects ready to debut by the middle of the summer or late summer. Oh ya, and that team from Missouri is still there. If the cubs were in a lesser division, I’d really like their chances to make the playoffs, but the NL Central is going to be a guantlet next year.
Kershaw, Goldschmidt, Stanton, and Rendon all disagree with you about where the best player in the NL lives.
The Cubs look to have the best rotation in the NLC with Lester, Arrieta, and Hammel at the top. That will go a long way.
Kershaw is better than Cutch, I more or less meant best position player, though.
Goldy, Stanton and Rendon can disagree with me if they want, but they would be wrong. Mr. McCutchen let the NL in fWAR(for position players) and led the Majors in wRC+ last season. In 2013 he had the most fWAR in the NL for position players, and was four points behind Jayson werth more highest wRC+(werth 159 cutch 155).
Cutch is the best hitter in the NL, and it’s not really much of a debate.
While the Cubs’ rotation is much improved on paper, it is not as good as St. Louis. Give me Waino, Wacha, Lackey, and Lynn over what the Cubs have right now. If the Cubs acquire another Ace, that might change the conversation a little bit.
So Steamer has him at 3.6 WAR. With a 0.5WAR/yr decline… roughly 14 WAR over 6years?
So at $155/14WAR = ~11mil/win (it’s late, could be off on the #’s)
I realize the career year kind of complicates the projection a bit, but this seems steep. Ignoring the projection and starting him at 4.5WAR brings it down to a somewhat reasonable 8mil/win, but should we tweak a projection that much because of his 2014?
Depends on the projection system you use. ZIPS said Lester was worth 6/150, and I think that’s a much better projection system than Steamer.
Isn’t this just as much about the statement it makes for the Cubs’ organization than the WAR/$$ calc?
This tells the fanbase, other teams and other free agents that that the Cubs have arrived and it is time to take them seriously.
The Cubs will be just fine if Lester is a bit overpaid.
Given how much of their roster is going to be on rookie contracts in the coming years, they can definitley afford to overpay a few guys.
The Melkman to the southside?
Apparently Mariners have been interested… Somehow they strike me as the likelier of the two to stupidly overpay.
Why you should buy that Lester’s 2014 “was real”:
http://www.banishedtothepen.com/the-old-jon-lester/